Erik Karlsson (Part 6)

[Anomie2029]

There's been a few times he has had a clean shot on net, but decided to make a pass to throw of the goalie.
I thought he looked great for the most past in the Buffalo game - despite the poor turnover.

 

[do0glas]

There's been a few times he has had a clean shot on net, but decided to make a pass to throw of the goalie.
I thought he looked great for the most past in the Buffalo game - despite the poor turnover.

Wish hed just rip it sometimes. Rare to get those in tight shot fakes to work. Gives the d too much time to tie up

 

[Karl Prime]

I do wonder if it's a system issue or just a lack of confidence to shoot the puck since he's scored at an all-time low the past 2 years. He's averaging around 3 fewer shot attempts per game than last year according to hockey reference.

 

[JeremyTB]

He needs to just keep it simple in the defensive zone. I have seen him so many times this season pass the puck between his legs in the defensive zone and right infront of the net. It's not like these risky plays in his own end are going to create offensive chances, It's a high risk low reward play. It just takes one play for it to not work and have the puck end up in your own net and cost you the game.

 

[OrrNumber4]

It bears repeating that Karlsson still needs to adjust to not being top-dog all the time. In Ottawa, the defensive breakout strategy was to get the puck to Karlsson and then react to what he does. In San Jose, Karlsson is a great option among a couple of great options. He has to become comfortable not always being able to dictate the play.

Part of this can be blamed on DeBoer. DeBoer's teams have never much puck-rushing from the defensemen, which is where Karlsson thrives.

 

[LadyStanley]

Erik and Melinda Karlsson bring daughter home from hospital

PDB says he's liking EK65's play more in recent games (so thinking is that without the worry over family, he's playing more focused).

 

[Anomie2029]

It bears repeating that Karlsson still needs to adjust to not being top-dog all the time. In Ottawa, the defensive breakout strategy was to get the puck to Karlsson and then react to what he does. In San Jose, Karlsson is a great option among a couple of great options. He has to become comfortable not always being able to dictate the play.

Part of this can be blamed on DeBoer. DeBoer's teams have never much puck-rushing from the defensemen, which is where Karlsson thrives.

I actually think the turnover that lead to the game winner wasn't a system breakdown. Usually the center would be circling around there, instead it was a winger who wasn't in position. This does not absolve EK65 at all, he needs to play in the system, but still be aware of what's in front of him.

I'm not that concerned about his play at the moment.

 

[Doctor Soraluce]

I actually think the turnover that lead to the game winner wasn't a system breakdown. Usually the center would be circling around there, instead it was a winger who wasn't in position. This does not absolve EK65 at all, he needs to play in the system, but still be aware of what's in front of him.

I'm not that concerned about his play at the moment.

Agree. I think his skating is starting to look elite again and he's finding his hands which is a good sign. It's all confidence. When he starts making the great dangles you can be assured he's on the upswing.

As far as the play, he was trying to give it to Sorenson (I believe) who was standing right in front of Jones but it rolled off his stick on the hard turn. Unfortunate and he should have cleared but it's too early for the pitchforks.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Posted this in the main board but worth posting here as well:

The entire Sharks team is an absolute mess right now. They have the worst 5-on-5 goals for percentage and the 2nd worst 5-on-5 score-adjusted expected goals for percentage. At 5-on-5 they just got out-scored 5-1 and nearly doubled up in score/venue adjusted xGF% by the Ottawa Senators.

Karlsson in particular had a very poor game against Ottawa, and he has had a few other poor games but he also had a truly dominant game against Montreal, and he has not been nearly as poor as people are making him out to be. He has not been the worst player on the team, nor the biggest problem with this team by any stretch. Of the 15 Sharks skaters with at least 100 minutes at 5-on-5, Karlsson ranks 5th in CF% (51.34%), 8th in goals for percentage (36%), 5th in score/venue-adjusted CF% (51.25%), and 5th in score/venue-adjusted xGF% (45.72%). It's a low bar to clear, but Karlsson has been a significant positive relative to his teammates.

I know some people might not be into analytics or aware of what these numbers mean, but here is a visual look at what's going on here:

Spoiler

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Really, those heat maps tell you all you need to know. Offensively, the Sharks actually look like a slightly above average team with Karlsson on the ice, and they look worse than any of Karlsson's old Ottawa teams Defensively, Karlsson has done a poor job of defending, but he's also playing on a dreadful defensive team that is hardly doing any better when he isn't on the ice, and the shots that the team is facing mostly aren't coming from his side of the ice.

Part of the reason the Sharks are on pace for 62 points right now and not 40 like their 5-on-5 play would suggest they might be is because their special teams actually have been near the top of the league. Only Edmonton and Boston have a higher PP%+PK%. And the biggest reason for their PP doing well, in my view, is Karlsson. He hasn't posted a ton of points there, but he is the only player on the team who can consistently enter the zone on the PP, and he is the catalyst behind most of the offensive plays; he's been a bit unlucky in that he's had a few tertiary assists on plays that he has engineered. On the PP, the team is posting 10.11 goals per 60 minutes with Karlsson and 8.08 goals per 60 minutes without him. They're also posting 10.95 expected goals per 60 minutes with him and 5.72 expected goals per 60 minutes without him, so the gap in PP performance with and without him will only continue to widen.

On the penalty kill, the Sharks are allowing 2.08 goals per 60 minutes with Karlsson on the ice, and 2.62 goals per 60 minutes without him. Their success on the PK is mostly coming from extremely unsustainable goaltending, but they are still allowing 5.37 expected goals per 60 minutes with Karlsson on the ice, compared to 6.46 expected goals per 60 minutes without him. If "the Sharks with Erik Karlsson on the ice" were a team, they would be allowing PK goals at by far the lowest rate in the NHL, and they would be allowing expected goals at the 9th lowest rate in the NHL. So, while he won't continue to ride this ridiculous save percentage on the PK, he is playing very well there.

There are so many players that deserve criticism right now, and there are so many players that people could dump on. So why is everybody singling out Karlsson? Again, he certainly has been a problem. But he has not been the problem. I mean, Vlasic is in the 2nd year of an 8-year contract that pays him $7M per year, and he has been the worst player on the team so far after an absolutely dreadful season last year. Couture is the new captain in the first year of an 8-year contract that pays him $8M per year, and he hasn't been very good either. Peter DeBoer is in the first year of a new contract extension with an undisclosed term, and his teams have now been out-scored at 5-on-5 since the start of the 2017-2018 season. The Sharks are 4-7-1 without their 1st round pick and it seems like the only player that anybody wants to dump on is Karlsson. I don't get it. There's plenty of criticism to be had for Karlsson who simply hasn't been good enough so far but for ****'s sakes, share the love, guys! There is more than enough to go around!

 

[Pavelski2112]

Posted this in the main board but worth posting here as well:

People don't care about stats, they just want to share narratives because those don't require critical thinking to spread.

 

[SjMilhouse]

To be fair Karlsson is also the highest paid D man in the league and is expected to do more than he has so far

 

[Star Ocean]

Erik Karlsson is the most hated player on hf.

Always a thread when he is minus.

 

[Blackbear]

Pretty clear what is happening. The whole league has the book on him now, which is that he becomes highly ineffectual when he is under pressure, especially in his own end. His vision and decision making disappear under aggressive forecheck, and he is very weak on the puck so unable to protect it until support arrives. Deliberately run him a few times and it's game over. He'll be lucky to have 10 good games a season for the next 8 years, and likely will be hurt a lot. The only "system change" that is going to help him is to assign all 4 guys on the ice with him to protect him at all times, kind of a perpetual flying V. For half the game that he is on the ice. Fire PDB and call in Coach Bombay.

 

[Lebanezer]

Pretty clear what is happening. The whole league has the book on him now, which is that he becomes highly ineffectual when he is under pressure, especially in his own end. His vision and decision making disappear under aggressive forecheck, and he is very weak on the puck so unable to protect it until support arrives. Deliberately run him a few times and it's game over. He'll be lucky to have 10 good games a season for the next 8 years, and likely will be hurt a lot. The only "system change" that is going to help him is to assign all 4 guys on the ice with him to protect him at all times, kind of a perpetual flying V. For half the game that he is on the ice. Fire PDB and call in Coach Bombay.

 

[Blackbear]

Well you have eight years to prove the hypothesis wrong.

 

[Lebanezer]

Well you have eight years to prove the hypothesis wrong.

Me personally? Yeah, I'll get right on it.

 

[RoloTonyBrownTown]

OK, I gotta say, I thought you were completely out to lunch with your assessment of Karlsson as weak under pressure but I am very, very intrigued about this "perpetual flying v" concept. I mean, the flying v works so damn well part of the time, why not all the time? It's f***ing crazy but it's just crazy enough to work. I'm in.

 

[hockfan1991]

Pretty clear what is happening. The whole league has the book on him now, which is that he becomes highly ineffectual when he is under pressure, especially in his own end. His vision and decision making disappear under aggressive forecheck, and he is very weak on the puck so unable to protect it until support arrives. Deliberately run him a few times and it's game over. He'll be lucky to have 10 good games a season for the next 8 years, and likely will be hurt a lot. The only "system change" that is going to help him is to assign all 4 guys on the ice with him to protect him at all times, kind of a perpetual flying V. For half the game that he is on the ice. Fire PDB and call in Coach Bombay.

right after 10 years of him making people look silly and making elite plays and being a generational player finally after 10 years everyone’s figured it out you’re right

the light bulb went on they got him now


he’s toast

get out of here he still elite and will turn around there is no book in the league has figured out nothing that they haven’t already while they been getting smoked for the better part of 10 years

Karlsson will be great for the sharks and if I could do it again I would sign him 10 out of 10 times

 

[hohosaregood]

Karlsson was, at worst, a top pairing dman last year with severely compromised skating. He'll never not be an elite player when you consider that we've already seen him at his worst.

 

[Blackbear]

right after 10 years of him making people look silly and making elite plays and being a generational player finally after 10 years everyone’s figured it out you’re right

the light bulb went on they got him now


he’s toast

get out of here he still elite and will turn around there is no book in the league has figured out nothing that they haven’t already while they been getting smoked for the better part of 10 years

Karlsson will be great for the sharks and if I could do it again I would sign him 10 out of 10 times

Well tell me that again at the end of the season. Maybe he can make a slick toe drag and “pretty” pass now and again when he has plenty of time and space on the ice, but people have figured out the Achilles heel. The weakness was evident last season and it was very foolish constraining the team’s opportunities for the next 8 years for that. The risk benefit was not favorable.

 

[tiburon12]

Well tell me that again at the end of the season. Maybe he can make a slick toe drag and “pretty” pass now and again when he has plenty of time and space on the ice, but people have figured out the Achilles heel. The weakness was evident last season and it was very foolish constraining the team’s opportunities for the next 8 years for that. The risk benefit was not favorable.

Like all things, his poor play isnt the result of one thing, and it's not entirely on him. He's getting shit goaltending most of the time and no help from the forwards. The Sharks also have a terrible breakout that basically revolves around the D skating the puck up, which severely exposes the D should there be a turnover. Spoiler: turnovers are by far the thing that is killing the team most - nothing else comes close.

That said, he is playing weak on the puck and on the man, and is getting dejected after bad goaltending. Remember last season when we were panicking he would want to leave because Jones wasn't bailing him out after mistakes? The only change to this year is that he is contractually obligated to stay now. The games where he has looked especially good, to no surprise, are games where the goalies have been above average, like against MTL.

A system change, one that is less risky defensively and focuses on puck control down low (not funneling offense through defense) and provides forward support to the defense (not flying the zone and hoping the D can skate it out) would be so refreshing and actually help our start players succeed. He wouldnt have to feel like he has to do everything himself.

If you look at the ENG Toronto scored the other night, yes, Karlsson was a dope for trying to dangle at that time, but slow the video down and look at his options for a moment. Hertl was open but Matthews took the passing lane away. Everyone else was either beyond the red line or, and i emphasize, not facing the play or opening as an option. Conversely, the Leafs pounced on Karlsson and ended up having a 3-1 because they were paying attention to the play.

He's making 11.5MM and the pressure and criticism should be higher for him, but let's not pretend that the Sharks system or the goalies are helping him succeed. No defenseman likes to play without any forward support and/or in front of an unreliable goalie.

 

[one2gamble]

He only really does dumb things when he's pressing

 

[CartographerNo611]

Like all things, his poor play isnt the result of one thing, and it's not entirely on him. He's getting **** goaltending most of the time and no help from the forwards. The Sharks also have a terrible breakout that basically revolves around the D skating the puck up, which severely exposes should there be a turnover. Spoiler: turnovers are by far the thing that is killing the team most - nothing else comes close.

That said, he is playing weak on the puck and on the man, and is getting dejected after bad goaltending. Remember last season when we were panicking he would want to leave because Jones wasn't bailing him out after mistakes? The only change to this year is that he is contractually obligated to stay now. The games where he has looked especially good, to no surprise, are games where the goalies have been above average, like against MTL.

A system change, one that is less risky defensively and focuses on puck control down low (not funneling offense through defense) and provides forward support to the defense (not flying the zone and hoping the D can skate it out) would be so refreshing and actually help our start players succeed. He wouldnt have to feel like he has to do everything himself.

If you look at the ENG Toronto scored the other night, yes, Karlsson as a dope for trying to dangle at that time, but slow the video down and look at his options for a moment. Hertl was open but Matthews took the passing lane away. Everyone else was either beyond the red line or, and i emphasize, not facing the play or opening as an option. Conversely, the Leafs pounced on Karlsson and ended up having a 3-1 because they were paying attention to the play.

He's making 11.5MM and the pressure and criticism should be higher for him, but let's not pretend that the Sharks system or the goalies are helping him succeed. No defenseman likes to play without any forward support and/or in front of an unreliable goalie.

Give your fingers a rest and just type EK65 hasn't been good lol.

Pronger made Leighton look like an NHL calibre goaltender back in Philly so I dont completely buy your goaltender argument making a good D. Jones/Dell definitely have lost the confidence of their teammates. An 11 million dollar d-man should not be turning over pucks attempting a pretty pass thats not there leading to odd man rushes. Goes both ways this trust thing. You can absolutely have EK do everything on offense because thats exactly what the Sens did for years lmao. Heck Hughes is pulling a 2010 EK65 and doing the entire break out for the Nucks this year and having success at it.

 

[Pavelski2112]

Give your fingers a rest and just type EK65 hasn't been good lol.

Pronger made Leighton look like an NHL calibre goaltender back in Philly so I dont completely buy your goaltender argument making a good D. Jones/Dell definitely have lost the confidence of their teammates. An 11 million dollar d-man should not be turning over pucks attempting a pretty pass thats not there leading to odd man rushes. Goes both ways this trust thing. You can absolutely have EK do everything on offense because thats exactly what the Sens did for years lmao. Heck Hughes is pulling a 2010 EK65 and doing the entire break out for the Nucks this year and having success at it.

Chris Pronger didn't single-handedly make that team look good. Remember, a lot of the core of that team became a big part of the core of those Cup-winning Kings teams.

Systems these days are almost as important as who's playing those systems, and there's a very stark mismatch here. Expecting EK and Burns to do everything for the team is asking for trouble.

 

[SJSharksfan39]

Should Karlsson take a leave of absense from the team to deal with family issues for a few weeks? It sounds terrible to ask for a player of his caliber under his contract, but right now he's no good actually playing than not. Maybe he needs time to take care of the newborn and clear his head.