Erik Karlsson (Part 3)

[TomasHertlsRooster]

No I think you nailed it. I think Karlsson is trying to play a more defense/safe oriented role on the Sharks. The only question for me is, is it him trying to do that to fit in here, or Deboer/Deboer's system making him do that.

I made notice of that earlier in this thread(pretty sure it was this one) that Karlsson is not shooting nearly as much from below the point as he has in seasons past. Considering Karlsson scored quite a few of his goals from below the point in years past, I think its a big factor is what is going wrong with him so far this year.

Some games Karlsson does seem to be all over the offensive zone, and those are the games/periods he looks most dangerous, but then he, or the coaches, make him fall back into our system of stay high for point shots. At this point, that does not look to be his strength.

Karlsson’s flaw seems to be defending around the net. He’s good defending in transition and he’s positionally mostly where he should be. But I feel he doesn’t fight for the puck enough in front of his net. There’s so many goals against that I’ve seen where Karlsson is in front of the net just watching. Not all of those goals happen because of him, or even most of them. And like someone said, his on-ice save percentage is bound to rebound to something reasonable. But I do think he has legitimately struggled in that area. Where Burns’ issue is decision-making in transition, this is Karlsson’s.

Because of this issue, it’s even more frustrating that he hasn’t been great offensively. If he were dazzling offensively and creating a lot of goals for, I could overlook his weakness in his own zone, just like I do Burns. Again, I don’t think he’s been “bad” by any means, but I was led to believe that Karlsson was the best defenseman in the league. By that measure, he’s been very disappointing.

There have been two games this season where I felt Karlsson was showing us what he could do. One was against Philly, which I attended in person, and the other was a couple games later. We need that player to show up the same way Burns has shown up so consistently this year.

These both mostly sum up what I’ve seen. His first period in Dallas, quite honestly, I think he showed flashes of being perhaps equal to or more dominant than Burns at his best. The issue is that he hasn’t brought that to the table nearly enough, but it’s really not that big of a deal if he’s able to bring it in the playoffs.

The issues in front of the net make me wonder if Dillon may actually be the better partner for him than Vlasic.

 

[Hinterland]

I found that Karl was not nearly as aggressive offensively and seemed to try to play a steadier game where he was relied on a lot more for transition and defensive zone play. He was very aggressive in the d-zone and seemed to not be given offensive zone deployment at ES.

He didn't jump into the rush much at all, and I found on previous games he was trying to do a lot in the ozone, getting in real deep.

Has he played the way he played against Calgary earlier in the season at all? Is it possible this is an attempt to re-focus and maybe simplify his game to fit San Jose's system better? Or am I just drawing too many conclusions from a one off game?

Thanks

I knew he wouldn't be a fit because him and Burns were used to a very similar usage but there aren't enough of those quality minutes available for two. They were never gonna change the way they use Burns so Karlsson has to deal with tougher minutes than he's used to. Defense, and particularly physical game and positioning against the puck were always Karlsson's weaknesses. He's not very effective like that. Not a good way to use your cap. I predicted it and we see it now. I wanted a righty winger instead and I still think it would have been much more effective to land another real top6 forward.
And to all the apologists here...no...it's not likely to get much better. At his age and with all the injuries he had, I'd be surprised if Karlsson manages to change/improve his game to a point where he can effectively play the minutes he gets with the Sharks.

 

[Dicdonya]

These both mostly sum up what I’ve seen. His first period in Dallas, quite honestly, I think he showed flashes of being perhaps equal to or more dominant than Burns at his best. The issue is that he hasn’t brought that to the table nearly enough, but it’s really not that big of a deal if he’s able to bring it in the playoffs.

The issues in front of the net make me wonder if Dillon may actually be the better partner for him than Vlasic.

Looking at the numbers he has with Dillon and Vlasic, honestly they are pretty darn close to equal. I do not think either of them playing with him is the problem or answer.

Karlsson is getting pooped on with on ice save%. I think he is honestly just getting really really unlucky right now. Yeah that is not a wonderful argument, but hes not bad enough defensively to be causing the .850 sv% hes rocking, 3rd worst with only Hertl/Cooch having it worse, and I KNOW they are not causing that.

I cant imagine having just about every miscue he makes end up in the back of the net, and plenty that he didn't screw anything up do the same, having no effect on how he is playing. Some of his playing it safe now, might be in response to whats been happening every time he misses a pinch, flubs a pass,falls on the ice, etc. It seems every single mistake he makes, ends up in a goal, where other players mistakes do not every time. He might honestly be afraid to go wild right now, because Jones, and the hockey gods punish him every time he makes a mistake.

 

[DG93]

So I may be misunderstanding, but are we going with the conclusion here that both EK65 and Burns need freedom to operate from DeBoer's tight defensive system, and there isn't a way to do that while they are on separate pairings? If that's the case, then I can see why EK65 is being forced into this conservative role in DeBoer's system, and that's not his game at all...it's minimizing his contributions. I would strongly advocate for trading Burns then while his value is at its peak. That would open up Burns' role for EK65, who is younger and better in that role. I honestly thought that both of them would be able to do their thing, so this most likely on DeBoer and his lack of flexibility.

 

[OrrNumber4]

So I may be misunderstanding, but are we going with the conclusion here that both EK65 and Burns need freedom to operate from DeBoer's tight defensive system, and there isn't a way to do that while they are on separate pairings? If that's the case, then I can see why EK65 is being forced into this conservative role in DeBoer's system, and that's not his game at all...it's minimizing his contributions. I would strongly advocate for trading Burns then while his value is at its peak. That would open up Burns' role for EK65, who is younger and better in that role. I honestly thought that both of them would be able to do their thing, so this most likely on DeBoer and his lack of flexibility.

Under what justification could the Sharks justify trading him? They'd have to engender one...they aren't in a financial pinch, they are a winning team, Burns is playing exceptionally well, and I doubt he has off-ice issues. Only a trade for a better player would make such a trade acceptable, and I can't imagine such players are available.

Now, remember that Burns has an NTC, making the bar even higher!

 

[do0glas]

Honestly, im not seeing what everyone else is. The guy is elite. Even behind hus own net hes stripping pucks and countering.

Id like to see him jump up more, but im happy with him. Burns play is lampshading his lack of production for sure, but lets not pretend burns hasnt benefited by getting some soft minutes.

The unlucky argument is not wrong.

Ek65 gives up 10.5 hdca/60 and has a 2.91 hdga/60

Burns gives up 14 hdca/60 and has a 1.56 hdga/60

Defensively hes supressing shots and chances third best on the d men relative to his team. But getting scored on the second most.

If he had burns sv% hed look like a beast defensively.

Karlsson is getting his share of good zone starts but is also taking a heavier load on the dzone and doing well. More takesways per 60 and much less giveaways per 60 than burns.

Burns is probably going to have a career year, points wise. However, EK65 shouldn't be overlooked.

 

[Chaotic8]

Face the facts folks, EK65 isn't getting traded and to think otherwise is not only foolish, but irrelevant.

 

[Hinterland]

Under what justification could the Sharks justify trading him? They'd have to engender one...they aren't in a financial pinch, they are a winning team, Burns is playing exceptionally well, and I doubt he has off-ice issues. Only a trade for a better player would make such a trade acceptable, and I can't imagine such players are available.

Now, remember that Burns has an NTC, making the bar even higher!

It's not an NTC, it's a modified NTC. His three team trade list is essentially a full NMC. He wouldn't have trouble to find three teams not willing to trade for him. Burns won't go anywhere unless he wants to.

 

[cashinstinct]

Before trading Burns or any other D, maybe sign EK65 first?

Step 1: trade a D
Step 2: EK65 walks away as UFA
Step 3: ????? ... hits the fan.

—-

Better plan:

Step 1: ask EK65 if he wants to stay
Step 2: ask yourself if you can pay $11 million+ for him (hopefully they asked themselves this before the trade...)
Step 3: sign EK65
Step 4: trade a D if needed

 

[danielpalfredsson]

Trading doesn't always have to be selling. So far, Karlsson hasn't been better than DeMelo so getting a real top6 righty forward for him surely would improve the team.

Granted, I've only watched the last three Sharks games this season, but saying Karl hasn't been better than Demelo is absurd.

Karl playing how he played against Calgary isn't the Karl of old stylistically, but is still 10x as effective as Demelo in that he is excellent at forcing turn overs and transitioning the puck.

They are apples and oranges anyways. Demelo's job is to support Chabot. He's closer to Dillon in role in that Dillon's job is to support Karl.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

So I may be misunderstanding, but are we going with the conclusion here that both EK65 and Burns need freedom to operate from DeBoer's tight defensive system, and there isn't a way to do that while they are on separate pairings? If that's the case, then I can see why EK65 is being forced into this conservative role in DeBoer's system, and that's not his game at all...it's minimizing his contributions. I would strongly advocate for trading Burns then while his value is at its peak. That would open up Burns' role for EK65, who is younger and better in that role. I honestly thought that both of them would be able to do their thing, so this most likely on DeBoer and his lack of flexibility.

Everybody on the ice basically a has to be playing for EK for him to excel. At his best, he's a very aggressive player who is a rover in all three zones and usually has the speed and first step to recover when he gets caught. He needs a D partner who knows his role, and forwards who do as well.

I think Karlsson could very easily adjust to being less of a rover and more of a transitional D. I think that's what we saw last game in which I felt he was mostly excellent. He was on the ice for four really bad sequences, but IMO it's questionable whether 3 were really his fault. First goal, I thought it was on Melker, the third period pinch he had the support but Dillon fumbled the pick, and the blown tire was pretty much an act of God that could have happened to any player.

I'm not trying to throw shade, but I don't think he stays in San Jose if it means altering his game, even if he can still be an excellent top pairing guy. He, like most players, seems to have a big ego. What this trade has really taught me so far is that Karlsson needs the team to be built around him if he is going to play like the legendary EK. In fact, his best season in 16-17 had Boucher build his entire system around EK with loads of support all around the ice for him.

 

[SjMilhouse]

Trading doesn't always have to be selling. So far, Karlsson hasn't been better than DeMelo so getting a real top6 righty forward for him surely would improve the team.

I don't even know how to respond to something like this. At Karlssons worst on this team he is still a top 4 D....just....why? Why post this???

 

[Hinterland]

I don't even know how to respond to something like this. At Karlssons worst on this team he is still a top 4 D....just....why? Why post this???

Who would you rather have at this point? Panarin or Karlsson? You must be crazy to say Karlsson...particularly if you're the Sharks. The way DeBoer uses Burns there's just no room for a player like Karlsson. Of course he's still an average top4 playing like that but that's not a good way to spend your cap. Sharks could do better with that money. They need help upfront and particularly righties.

 

[SjMilhouse]

Who would you rather have at this point? Panarin or Karlsson? You must be crazy to say Karlsson...particularly if you're the Sharks. The way DeBoer uses Burns there's just no room for a player like Karlsson. Of course he's still an average top4 playing like that but that's not a good way to spend your cap. Sharks could do better with that money. They need help upfront and particularly righties.

Karlsson. I still think he's going to turn it around and I think a lot of people discount the effect Karlsson has had on allowing Burns to do what he's doing

 

[one2gamble]

Who would you rather have at this point? Panarin or Karlsson? You must be crazy to say Karlsson...particularly if you're the Sharks. The way DeBoer uses Burns there's just no room for a player like Karlsson. Of course he's still an average top4 playing like that but that's not a good way to spend your cap. Sharks could do better with that money. They need help upfront and particularly righties.

I dont necessarily disagree with your core argument but its based around absurdities to justify it.

Yes the sharks need help up front
Yes a top 10 in the NHL center/forward would be beneficial

That said, EK is creating a ton of chances that the forwards are not capitalizing on at all.
Having EK on the ice is opening space up for Burns
DeBoer misutilizing EK is one of the reasons he doesnt look as good as he is.

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

I dont necessarily disagree with your core argument but its based around absurdities to justify it.

Yes the sharks need help up front
Yes a top 10 in the NHL center/forward would be beneficial

That said, EK is creating a ton of chances that the forwards are not capitalizing on at all.
Having EK on the ice is opening space up for Burns
DeBoer misutilizing EK is one of the reasons he doesnt look as good as he is.

I agree. I think our system and the way PDB is utilizing EK65 is largely the reason why he is struggling. Only way I consider Panarin over EK65 next year is if:

- EK65 continues to struggle through the end of this season.
AND
- PDB is still our coach at the start of next season.

 

[LeftHeartInSF]

Trading doesn't always have to be selling. So far, Karlsson hasn't been better than DeMelo so getting a real top6 righty forward for him surely would improve the team.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Looking at the numbers he has with Dillon and Vlasic, honestly they are pretty darn close to equal. I do not think either of them playing with him is the problem or answer.

Karlsson is getting pooped on with on ice save%. I think he is honestly just getting really really unlucky right now. Yeah that is not a wonderful argument, but hes not bad enough defensively to be causing the .850 sv% hes rocking, 3rd worst with only Hertl/Cooch having it worse, and I KNOW they are not causing that.

I cant imagine having just about every miscue he makes end up in the back of the net, and plenty that he didn't screw anything up do the same, having no effect on how he is playing. Some of his playing it safe now, might be in response to whats been happening every time he misses a pinch, flubs a pass,falls on the ice, etc. It seems every single mistake he makes, ends up in a goal, where other players mistakes do not every time. He might honestly be afraid to go wild right now, because Jones, and the hockey gods punish him every time he makes a mistake.

I haven’t even checked Karlsson’s splits or WOWYs with anybody. Kind of like when you go on vacation and don’t even wanna step on the scale for a week after you get back.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Trading doesn't always have to be selling. So far, Karlsson hasn't been better than DeMelo so getting a real top6 righty forward for him surely would improve the team.

Outside of being equal to Karlsson in raw points, saying Karlsson hasn't been better than DeMelo is factually incorrect in so many different ways. Moving Karlsson now would leave a pretty ginormous hole on the blue line. Going from Karlsson to say Heed is a huge step down and if you're going to advocate a Karlsson for Panarin type of trade, that's likely not going to get addressed elsewhere and the Sharks fork over an extra 1st round pick with a trade like that. It's not going to happen. Karlsson does a significant amount of positive and a lot more than anyone else in his position is going to do.

 

[Hinterland]

I dont necessarily disagree with your core argument but its based around absurdities to justify it.

Yes the sharks need help up front
Yes a top 10 in the NHL center/forward would be beneficial

That said, EK is creating a ton of chances that the forwards are not capitalizing on at all.
Having EK on the ice is opening space up for Burns
DeBoer misutilizing EK is one of the reasons he doesnt look as good as he is.

Yeah, Karlsson could do a lot better if given the sheltered offensive zone starts he received in Ottawa. Burns receives very similar minutes and it's not possible to play two guys that same way.
Yeah, you can blame DeBoer for misusing Karlsson...but a true Norris caliber defender would find ways to shine in every situation. Also, handing Karlsson more quality minutes would hurt Burns.

 

[SjMilhouse]

Yeah, Karlsson could do a lot better if given the sheltered offensive zone starts he received in Ottawa. Burns receives very similar minutes and it's not possible to play two guys that same way.
Yeah, you can blame DeBoer for misusing Karlsson...but a true Norris caliber defender would find ways to shine in every situation. Also, handing Karlsson more quality minutes would hurt Burns.

He is actually getting the 4th best oZS% of his career so far with the sharks...at least at even strength. His CF% s also just shy of 60%. He's been bad at time's, no doubt, but he's driving play while getting horrible luck. His on ice save % is garbage and you can't put that all on him. He hasn't been producing the offense you'd like or expect but he's opening the ice for Burns and at some point his luck is going to change and players will start burying the chances he sets up.

I said it before but Wilson pulling off this trade for the assets we gave up was a curse on Karlsson because god forbid the Sharks have something go their way for once. I fully expect him to finally break out around Christmas, everyone get super excited, then he get's hurt Havlat style and is out because that's Sharks hockey

 

[RoloTonyBrownTown]

Karlsson is going to catch fire any moment. He's traditionally a second half player, not to mention a premier playoff performer. There is little doubt in my mind he will get going soon, and when he does, he will be hotter than Kevin Kurz' nuclear-level hot takes on EK's supposed "shortcomings."

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

To me, its seems that generally EK65 does great at the start of most of our games. He is attacking and skating into the zone, etc. Then we give up goals, fall behind and then PDB goes back to his trusty blender.

 

[DG93]

Under what justification could the Sharks justify trading him? They'd have to engender one...they aren't in a financial pinch, they are a winning team, Burns is playing exceptionally well, and I doubt he has off-ice issues. Only a trade for a better player would make such a trade acceptable, and I can't imagine such players are available.

Now, remember that Burns has an NTC, making the bar even higher!

There shouldn't be any justification for trading Burns since two superstar D should be able to play on separate pairings. I'm just going to assume PDB is forcing EK65 to play more conservatively, which is really dumb.

 

[BigRig4]

Karlsson doesn't turn it on til about game 20 you guys have nothing to worry about trust me