Speculation: Erik Karlsson - Part 2

[RegularSznAllStars]

What do we have to offer to be competitive with 11m per year? Like 9?

 

[Hoek]

Friedman in his 31 thoughts recently said Karlsson wants to be here so bad he would take less than Hedman money.

 

[The Macho King]

Friedman in his 31 thoughts recently said Karlsson wants to be here so bad he would take less than Hedman money.

That would be absurd. I doubt that for some reason, simply because Hedman was a bargain the day it was signed and has only gotten better.

 

[Hoek]

Yeah I don't buy it and it's bad career decision objectively but it's out there.

 

[VinikToWinIt]

Friedman in his 31 thoughts recently said Karlsson wants to be here so bad he would take less than Hedman money.

That seems ridiculous - I would lose my mind.

Is there ground to the Sharks' rumored 8x11 offer? If so I can't see him leaving 30% on the table (+1 year), but I would take it.

 

[Rschmitz]

Hfboards would implode on itself so hard it would rip a hole in time and space if EK signed for Heddy money

 

[J T Money]

I told you long ago that he will sign here and my absurd 8m per year isn't so crazy now right?

My sources told me this as soon as there was strafe between him and and the Sens organization.

He will be coming here.

 

[These Are The Days]

That seems ridiculous - I would lose my mind.

Is there ground to the Sharks' rumored 8x11 offer? If so I can't see him leaving 30% on the table (+1 year), but I would take it.

The rumor is probably well placed because it's in the ballpark of the best offer they can make based on cap space for EK and everyone else. The Sharks kinda have to make their best offer now so they can focus on the draft and make changes to it closer to July 1st

I cant imagine that there won't be something on the table by Sunday night

 

[These Are The Days]

I told you long ago that he will sign here and my absurd 8m per year isn't so crazy now right?

My sources told me this as soon as there was strafe between him and and the Sens organization.

He will be coming here.

And sources say his wife wants to be closer to home/Ottawa therefore giving credence to NYR rumors. Who should anyone believe anymore? Coming here is getting as far away as possible from Canada

 

[J T Money]

And sources say his wife wants to be closer to home/Ottawa therefore giving credence to NYR rumors. Who should anyone believe anymore? Coming here is getting as far away as possible from Canada

I'd give it about 90-95% chance he comes here. It will be well below market / HFB expectations.

 

[Fabiobest]

I've read that the Sharks want to offer to Karlsson a big extension...88 millions, 11 millions average.

Thank EK, stay in SJ without any problems.

 

[HoseEmDown]

I don't think there are many players that do match their regular season rate in the playoffs, and let's keep in mind that his playoff sample size is still relatively small. Last year was his first time in the playoffs, and this year he had a whopping 4 games to prove himself. Even when he's not producing, he's still tenacious on the puck and a pest to play against.

JT Miller on the other hand... I've been one of his biggest defenders but his playoff numbers really speak for themselves. When the going gets tough he folds. He's had extended runs with 2 good teams and never produced. Just watching him float around out there kills me - it's like he doesn't know where he's supposed to be. He's got the talent (and I still would take him over 2 Namestnikovs), but something is missing.

Not sure why everyone is ragging on Miller for his playoff performances for us. The last two playoffs, the only ones Miller played for us, he hasn't been that bad. His career ppg is 0.54, playoffs it's 0.43 for us 0.48 so his drop-off isn't that high. Stamkos is a career 1.03 and playoffs 0.76, that's a big difference.

Miller 2g 8a 10p -4 40 hits, 6 ES points 2ES goals
Stamkos 8g 10a 18p -9 35 hits, 5 ES points 2 ES goals

Miller gets crap but it's really someone like Stamkos who if not getting PP points is the biggest waste of talent. Ondrej Palat has been the best ES scorer in the playoffs the last two years with 12, Point 10, Kucherov and Johnson 9, Miller 6, Stamkos, Gourde and Cirelli 5, Killorn, Paquette and Callahan 3. Miller isn't great in the playoffs but far from our problem there. I would still trade him in a second for the right offer but I would trade Stamkos even faster for a terrible offer.

 

[DFC]

Not sure why everyone is ragging on Miller for his playoff performances for us. The last two playoffs, the only ones Miller played for us, he hasn't been that bad. His career ppg is 0.54, playoffs it's 0.43 for us 0.48 so his drop-off isn't that high. Stamkos is a career 1.03 and playoffs 0.76, that's a big difference.

Miller 2g 8a 10p -4 40 hits, 6 ES points 2ES goals
Stamkos 8g 10a 18p -9 35 hits, 5 ES points 2 ES goals

Miller gets crap but it's really someone like Stamkos who if not getting PP points is the biggest waste of talent. Ondrej Palat has been the best ES scorer in the playoffs the last two years with 12, Point 10, Kucherov and Johnson 9, Miller 6, Stamkos, Gourde and Cirelli 5, Killorn, Paquette and Callahan 3. Miller isn't great in the playoffs but far from our problem there. I would still trade him in a second for the right offer but I would trade Stamkos even faster for a terrible offer.

People aren't exactly praising Stamkos's playoff performances either.

 

[HoseEmDown]

People aren't exactly praising Stamkos's playoff performances either.

I didn't say they were. But the reason we haven't won it all is not because of guys like Palat, Miller or Gourde. It's Stamkos. Of his 5 ES points 3 are secondary assists and one of those was on an empty net. If your best players don't show up you won't win and he doesn't show up.

 

[DFC]

I didn't say they were. But the reason we haven't won it all is not because of guys like Palat, Miller or Gourde. It's Stamkos. Of his 5 ES points 3 are secondary assists and one of those was on an empty net. If your best players don't show up you won't win and he doesn't show up.

No, but those are the most realistic options to be moved, with Miller and Gourde at the forefront because their NTCs haven't kicked in yet. So we're comparing them to each other. Not really saying they're THE problem. I don't think anybody's thinking that.

 

[God King Fudge]

Stamkos shares blame, but every playoffs, our offense has dried up completely and there's usually only one or two guys carrying the load.

I get that Stamkos is supposed to be the franchise and he holds the C, but he's no more to blame than any of our other offensive players that love to score games 1-82 and then disappear after that. It's happened every year. There are fundamental issues with how this team is constructed. That's not going to change with Stamkos having a good playoffs.

 

[DFC]

Stamkos shares blame, but every playoffs, our offense has dried up completely and there's usually only one or two guys carrying the load.

I get that Stamkos is supposed to be the franchise and he holds the C, but he's no more to blame than any of our other offensive players that love to score games 1-82 and then disappear after that. It's happened every year. There are fundamental issues with how this team is constructed. That's not going to change with Stamkos having a good playoffs.

I think "every year" is stretching it a lot. It happened this year and it happened in last year's ECF. With Stamkos, it's been consistent throughout his career, which is why he takes bigger shots. We've seen Kucherov and Hedman dominate in the playoffs, for instance.

 

[CupsOverCash]

Blame should go top down for obvious reasons but I think when the scoring dries up like it has in the last 5-6 playoff games then you wont be wrong to point it all around. Especially when they had no issues putting into the net during the regular season. I always found that to win a cup you need depth to step up when your top players cant score. That will happen because when you get to the playoffs chances are most teams are going to target shutting down your best players. Sometimes that works out. So when that does other players have to step up. Depth opens things up again for the top players. Top players open things up for the depth. Its a team game and that is why I dont put all blame on Cooper. For the last 6 playoff games our offense has had difficult time scoring goals when it matters most. I dont know how you cant spread the blame when that is the case.

 

[These Are The Days]

Blame should go top down for obvious reasons but I think when the scoring dries up like it has in the last 5-6 playoff games then you wont be wrong to point it all around. Especially when they had no issues putting into the net during the regular season. I always found that to win a cup you need depth to step up when your top players cant score. That will happen because when you get to the playoffs chances are most teams are going to target shutting down your best players. Sometimes that works out. So when that does other players have to step up. Depth opens things up again for the top players. Top players open things up for the depth. Its a team game and that is why I dont put all blame on Cooper. For the last 6 playoff games our offense has had difficult time scoring goals when it matters most. I dont know how you cant spread the blame when that is the case.

The problem is that we are one team for a period and then a completely different team for another and our success against the CBJ correlated to how much effort we were giving. The CBJ hit us back and we had no idea what to do. I do not support the Stamkos/Cooper relationship anymore and will be as surprised and happy as anyone if we actually win a championship. There is much "Aw shucks" in the room and it's leading to a soft mentality that is perpetuating into everything we are doing on the ice. I am almost scared to see how Stamkos would react to a hellfire coach. Dude comes off way too soft for my liking

 

[DFC]

Blame should go top down for obvious reasons but I think when the scoring dries up like it has in the last 5-6 playoff games then you wont be wrong to point it all around. Especially when they had no issues putting into the net during the regular season. I always found that to win a cup you need depth to step up when your top players cant score. That will happen because when you get to the playoffs chances are most teams are going to target shutting down your best players. Sometimes that works out. So when that does other players have to step up. Depth opens things up again for the top players. Top players open things up for the depth. Its a team game and that is why I dont put all blame on Cooper. For the last 6 playoff games our offense has had difficult time scoring goals when it matters most. I dont know how you cant spread the blame when that is the case.

Top down starts with Cooper though. When all the players suffer from the exact same problem, the real problem is probably deeper.

 

[God King Fudge]

I think "every year" is stretching it a lot. It happened this year and it happened in last year's ECF. With Stamkos, it's been consistent throughout his career, which is why he takes bigger shots. We've seen Kucherov and Hedman dominate in the playoffs, for instance.

Yeah, there's always been 1-2 guys that carry the load. Kuch did it. Johnson did it.

But if you start with the SCF vs Chicago: 4 of 6 games scored 1 goal or less.

Next season vs PIT: 2 goals or less in all 4 losses, including only 3 in the last 2 series clinching games.

Then vs WSH: We all know the story there. 0 goals in 2 series clinching games.

And of course this year vs Columbus. None of this is taking into account if these were goals in garbage time, etc.

We can try and slice it any way we want, but the hard facts are right there. This team has proven repeatedly that they cannot score when it matters the most. When competition is at its peak and you have to work harder than you have all season for it, the Tampa Bay Lightning do not have the ability to dig down and close the deal.

I love winning 62 games. I love being a consistent playoff team and I love that generally, we'll probably at least win a series.

None of that changes what's true about this team.

 

[CupsOverCash]

Top down starts with Cooper though. When all the players suffer from the exact same problem, the real problem is probably deeper.

Yea when I say top down I start with Cooper. Our GM and owner did everything to put us in position to succeed. While Cooper has had the team in position to win series that will put the team in the Cup Finals, he has also contributed a ton to the failure to bring it home. I thought that he should probably be fired after the sweep because no team that wins that many games should be swept in the first round. I have just always been advocate for the saying that this is a team game and it goes on the shoulders of the guys on the ice too. So a shakeup should be in order. How much of a shakeup? Im glad I dont have to make that decision.

 

[CupsOverCash]

The problem is that we are one team for a period and then a completely different team for another and our success against the CBJ correlated to how much effort we were giving. The CBJ hit us back and we had no idea what to do. I do not support the Stamkos/Cooper relationship anymore and will be as surprised and happy as anyone if we actually win a championship. There is much "Aw shucks" in the room and it's leading to a soft mentality that is perpetuating into everything we are doing on the ice. I am almost scared to see how Stamkos would react to a hellfire coach. Dude comes off way too soft for my liking

Well you hope that after losing the last 6 playoff games in a row and hardly being able to score a goal in those games would cause all of these guys to look into the mirror. Starting with Cooper/Stamkos. I know the after game comments were cringy but at the same time I dont think that is a direct representation of how these guys will deal with this. Something does have to change and Im sure these guys know it. Cross our fingers it does or we could see more of the same.

 

[BeingTheThunder]

Still don't understand why so many are not considering the cost of living. If EK were to get an $8.5 - $9 Million per year here in Tampa, it would go just as far here as $12-$13 Million per year in San Jose. An example is a house. The cost of the average home in Tampa is in the $250K or so range. The cost of the average home in San Jose is over a MILLION... that's 4 times more than Tampa area on average. It matters.

While it's not technically on par with what SJ would offer in a literal numbers sense, the bottom line for Karlsson would be the lower cost of living and no state taxes would put more money in his bank account than the SJ offer.

 

[DFC]

Still don't understand why so many are not considering the cost of living. If EK were to get an $8.5 - $9 Million per year here in Tampa, it would go just as far here as $12-$13 Million per year in San Jose. An example is a house. The cost of the average home in Tampa is in the $250K or so range. The cost of the average home in San Jose is over a MILLION... that's 4 times more than Tampa area on average. It matters.

While it's not technically on par with what SJ would offer in a literal numbers sense, the bottom line for Karlsson would be the lower cost of living and no state taxes would put more money in his bank account than the SJ offer.

He's not gonna spend his entire annual salary in a single year, no matter where he signs. Most of the money is likely saved for retirement. Cost of living is a consideration, but not nearly as much as just the actual dollars EK would have at the end of the day. These guys are trying to maximize their athletic prime years and they'll live off this money for the rest of their lives.