Erik Karlsson Megathread (All Proposals, Discussion, Speculation, and Rumors) [MOD 3470]

[Hunter368]

I'm sure someone would take Big Buff for a nominal sum

I think you missed the part of....if EK became a Jet, Buff would need to be traded and EK/Trouba would be our top two pairings on rhd. Trouba can’t be part of the package for EK.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Well the rub with the potential add of Bobby Ryan to an Erik Karlsson trade is that a team like Vegas would almost have to choose between acquiring Karlsson and going after Tavares. It would be tight for the Sharks but they could do both. I think McPhee is done doing the trades that take on salary for other assets right now. Certainly at least until he figures out what Karlsson, Miller, and Theodore are going to cost them. Adding another 13.75 million when they probably have to allocate roughly 15-17 million for those three RFA's then look at the potential losses of James Neal and David Perron is going to be difficult. However, it could be worth it for them. Erik Karlsson would be a huge add to their blue line but Bobby Ryan will cause problems for them down the road.



I'm not opposed to moving Braun however that doesn't seem very realistic either. When was the last time a player of Braun's caliber actually went for a mid-first? Also, would you really see DW open up a hole in the top four right side with no internal replacement options and likely a need to get another RHD as it is anyway? The Sharks could certainly still go after Karlsson anyway and make Braun part of that swap but if they go that route chances are that they are still running with a Dillon-DeMelo pairing and that's going to suck and it probably knocks them out of the Tavares running even though with some work it could still fit. It just requires an abnormal amount of movement to make it happen. But if the Sharks get an additional pick in the first round, they should probably use it to select players instead of packaging them to move up or get someone. Bode Wilde or Noah Dobson should be in the Sharks' crosshairs if they manage to get to that point. If that can't grab one of those two at 21 then they should probably trade back for Alexeeyev.

That Braun trade was proposed by a Panthers fan and while it might be slightly slanted towards San Jose, value wise, it isn’t all that far fetched. I’m only doing that trade if it brings back Erik Karlsson who is not only a top-4 defenseman on this team but who is a top-1 defenseman on every team in the league. I’m just saying that San Jose could go a bit outside the box in order to acquire a blue chipper for a Karlsson trade and suggesting a scenario.

 

[stempniaksen]

Any trade involving the Jets would require some restructuring of course, partly or ideally that would be part of the trade itself. As stated if we got EK that would mean Buff will be traded.

Are the Sens going full rebuild after trading EK or are they looking to just restructure thus want roster players back?

Not sure the team would consider going full scorched earthed rebuild, doesn't fit Melnyk's MO.

I'm having a tough time figureing what the Jets could realistically give up if Trouba isn't part of the deal, and honestly I'm drawing a bit of a blank. I just don't think the Jets could outgun a team like Vegas, or even San Jose without moving at least 2 of Trouba/Morrissey/Connor/Roslovic.

 

[Blue Goose]

Well the rub with the potential add of Bobby Ryan to an Erik Karlsson trade is that a team like Vegas would almost have to choose between acquiring Karlsson and going after Tavares. It would be tight for the Sharks but they could do both. I think McPhee is done doing the trades that take on salary for other assets right now. Certainly at least until he figures out what Karlsson, Miller, and Theodore are going to cost them. Adding another 13.75 million when they probably have to allocate roughly 15-17 million for those three RFA's then look at the potential losses of James Neal and David Perron is going to be difficult. However, it could be worth it for them. Erik Karlsson would be a huge add to their blue line but Bobby Ryan will cause problems for them down the road.

Actually, I think that one of the reasons VGK is considered a front-runner for EK65 is because they have the room to take on the Bobby Ryan contract. I never saw us as a contender for Tavares.

I'm just worried that moving the 2018 1st for Tatar might have hurt our chances of getting EK65, since I would assume that Ottawa would be looking for a 1st this year. But as I read in this thread, it sounds like the deal would likely be done after July 1. I did some projections on my own, and found that Vegas can take on Ryan AND give EK65 as much as $12M a year and still not run into any serious cap problems. If the 2017 1st rd picks all have their ELC's slide again this year (my hope), then they wouldn't get their 2nd contracts until the summer that Ryan's contract ends.

My biggest problem is trying to make a proposal that Ottawa fans would be happy with. I'd prefer to keep Glass/Brannstrom, but I'd offer up Suzuki. And I'd imagine Tuch could end up being the captain, so I'd like to hold onto him. I also don't see GMGM moving Tatar (or Ottawa being interested in taking him), so he and Ryan could replace Perron/Neal next season.

2019 1st + Nick Suzuki + what?

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

167 pages, crazy I wonder if this hits 200 pages

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Actually, I think that one of the reasons VGK is considered a front-runner for EK65 is because they have the room to take on the Bobby Ryan contract. I never saw us as a contender for Tavares.

I'm just worried that moving the 2018 1st for Tatar might have hurt our chances of getting EK65, since I would assume that Ottawa would be looking for a 1st this year. But as I read in this thread, it sounds like the deal would likely be done after July 1. I did some projections on my own, and found that Vegas can take on Ryan AND give EK65 as much as $12M a year and still not run into any serious cap problems. If the 2017 1st rd picks all have their ELC's slide again this year (my hope), then they wouldn't get their 2nd contracts until the summer that Ryan's contract ends.

My biggest problem is trying to make a proposal that Ottawa fans would be happy with. I'd prefer to keep Glass/Brannstrom, but I'd offer up Suzuki. And I'd imagine Tuch could end up being the captain, so I'd like to hold onto him. I also don't see GMGM moving Tatar (or Ottawa being interested in taking him), so he and Ryan could replace Perron/Neal next season.

2019 1st + Nick Suzuki + what?

Vegas was in the running and I think they were more of a front-runner than the Sharks were at the deadline. That's mostly because the Sharks simply didn't have the expendable pieces to make it work at that moment. It'll be easier to move pieces during the off-season. If it's a post-July 1 deal for Ottawa, the Sharks could take a swing at it provided nobody has done so by then. If the situations are equal for each team, Vegas has the advantage either way. The Sharks really only have a shot if they're willing to take Ryan and everyone else isn't and that's what Ottawa wanted to accomplish. That's a lot of things to go right which is why I'm not expecting Karlsson to head to San Jose. My personal priority is John Tavares and, while that is certainly a long shot, it's better for the team moving forward than trading pieces for Karlsson and probably Ryan as well.

 

[stempniaksen]

Actually, I think that one of the reasons VGK is considered a front-runner for EK65 is because they have the room to take on the Bobby Ryan contract. I never saw us as a contender for Tavares.

I'm just worried that moving the 2018 1st for Tatar might have hurt our chances of getting EK65, since I would assume that Ottawa would be looking for a 1st this year. But as I read in this thread, it sounds like the deal would likely be done after July 1. I did some projections on my own, and found that Vegas can take on Ryan AND give EK65 as much as $12M a year and still not run into any serious cap problems. If the 2017 1st rd picks all have their ELC's slide again this year (my hope), then they wouldn't get their 2nd contracts until the summer that Ryan's contract ends.

My biggest problem is trying to make a proposal that Ottawa fans would be happy with. I'd prefer to keep Glass/Brannstrom, but I'd offer up Suzuki. And I'd imagine Tuch could end up being the captain, so I'd like to hold onto him. I also don't see GMGM moving Tatar (or Ottawa being interested in taking him), so he and Ryan could replace Perron/Neal next season.

2019 1st + Nick Suzuki + what?

Probably would need Theodore in there if Tuch/Glass/Brannstrom are off the table, probably another draft pick as well (not necessarily a 1st, maybe a conditional pick or something).

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Actually, I think that one of the reasons VGK is considered a front-runner for EK65 is because they have the room to take on the Bobby Ryan contract. I never saw us as a contender for Tavares.

I'm just worried that moving the 2018 1st for Tatar might have hurt our chances of getting EK65, since I would assume that Ottawa would be looking for a 1st this year. But as I read in this thread, it sounds like the deal would likely be done after July 1. I did some projections on my own, and found that Vegas can take on Ryan AND give EK65 as much as $12M a year and still not run into any serious cap problems. If the 2017 1st rd picks all have their ELC's slide again this year (my hope), then they wouldn't get their 2nd contracts until the summer that Ryan's contract ends.

My biggest problem is trying to make a proposal that Ottawa fans would be happy with. I'd prefer to keep Glass/Brannstrom, but I'd offer up Suzuki. And I'd imagine Tuch could end up being the captain, so I'd like to hold onto him. I also don't see GMGM moving Tatar (or Ottawa being interested in taking him), so he and Ryan could replace Perron/Neal next season.

2019 1st + Nick Suzuki + what?

Are those calculations after William Karlsson is given a 7-8M contract long term?

 

[CupInSIX]

Would Ottawa take back Clarkson's cap? Full salary should all be insured.

 

[Qward]

Would Ottawa take back Clarkson's cap? Full salary should all be insured.

Do you need to shed it? You are already chucking Garrison and Grabovski after the season is done.

 

[branch]

Actually, I think that one of the reasons VGK is considered a front-runner for EK65 is because they have the room to take on the Bobby Ryan contract. I never saw us as a contender for Tavares.

I'm just worried that moving the 2018 1st for Tatar might have hurt our chances of getting EK65, since I would assume that Ottawa would be looking for a 1st this year. But as I read in this thread, it sounds like the deal would likely be done after July 1. I did some projections on my own, and found that Vegas can take on Ryan AND give EK65 as much as $12M a year and still not run into any serious cap problems. If the 2017 1st rd picks all have their ELC's slide again this year (my hope), then they wouldn't get their 2nd contracts until the summer that Ryan's contract ends.

My biggest problem is trying to make a proposal that Ottawa fans would be happy with. I'd prefer to keep Glass/Brannstrom, but I'd offer up Suzuki. And I'd imagine Tuch could end up being the captain, so I'd like to hold onto him. I also don't see GMGM moving Tatar (or Ottawa being interested in taking him), so he and Ryan could replace Perron/Neal next season.

2019 1st + Nick Suzuki + what?

It's definitely difficult to get something done with out those pieces. IMO Theodore as a given with Brannstrom or Glass are the catalysts that get something done.

 

[CupInSIX]

Do you need to shed it? You are already chucking Garrison and Grabovski after the season is done.

2020 would be dicey with the new contracts but I suppose Clarkson can still fit in before LTIR if we have 6 or so players that can be sent down. Just barely though. Eakin and Tatar would have to be moved out by then, no salary retained.

 

[Blue Goose]

Are those calculations after William Karlsson is given a 7-8M contract long term?

I really don't see Wild Bill getting the long-term deal yet. I see him getting a 2-year bridge deal - possibly after an arbitration hearing - that takes him to UFA. Then he'll get his long-term extension on July 1, 2019 if he has another great season. Marchessault had two good years in a row and was set to become UFA this summer. Bill has had one good year, and is an RFA under team control for two more years.

Probably would need Theodore in there if Tuch/Glass/Brannstrom are off the table, probably another draft pick as well (not necessarily a 1st, maybe a conditional pick or something).

It's definitely difficult to get something done with out those pieces. IMO Theodore as a given with Brannstrom or Glass are the catalysts that get something done.

Suzuki + Theodore + 2019 1st + 2020 2nd??

Would Ottawa take back Clarkson's cap? Full salary should all be insured.

Since you can put Clarkson on LTIR over the summer, I don't really see why we need to dump that cap yet. It's only two more years, in which case our cap is still okay. PS. Insurance only covers 80% of his salary, so the team is still on the hook for the rest (which would be $1.6M over the remaining two years.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

I really don't see Wild Bill getting the long-term deal yet. I see him getting a 2-year bridge deal - possibly after an arbitration hearing - that takes him to UFA. Then he'll get his long-term extension on July 1, 2019 if he has another great season. Marchessault had two good years in a row and was set to become UFA this summer. Bill has had one good year, and is an RFA under team control for two more years.





Suzuki + Theodore + 2019 1st + 2020 2nd??



Since you can put Clarkson on LTIR over the summer, I don't really see why we need to dump that cap yet. It's only two more years, in which case our cap is still okay. PS. Insurance only covers 80% of his salary, so the team is still on the hook for the rest (which would be $1.6M over the remaining two years.

Karlsson might not feel the same way. I highly doubt he will take less than $6M after the playoffs he is having and as a Sharks fan, I would offer sheet him $8M/7Y on July 1st if he became available.

It would be a classic DW move to offer sheet William Karlsson in order to screw up Vegas’ cap situation for John Tavares and Erik Karlsson. He did the same thing to Chicago in 2010 after losing to them in the playoffs and this forced the Blackhawks to let go of Antti Niemi, who San Jose picked up in UFA.

 

[Blue Goose]

Karlsson might not feel the same way. I highly doubt he will take less than $6M after the playoffs he is having and as a Sharks fan, I would offer sheet him $8M/7Y on July 1st if he became available.

It would be a classic DW move to offer sheet William Karlsson in order to screw up Vegas’ cap situation for John Tavares and Erik Karlsson. He did the same thing to Chicago in 2010 after losing to them in the playoffs and this forced the Blackhawks to let go of Antti Niemi, who San Jose picked up in UFA.

Okay, so here are the numbers I ran based on the cap going to $80M - I know I'm biased, but I think they're realistic:

Summer 2018
William Karlsson: 2 years @ $6M
Colin Miller: 4 years @ 5M

With Ryan (7.25M) and Erik Karlsson (6.5M), plus re-signing Carrier/Nosek to around $1M each, would leave VGK with $14M in cap space after Clarkson goes on LTIR.

Summer 2019:
Nate Schmidt: 6 years @ 6M
Alex Tuch: 2 years @ 4M

Lindberg walks, Bellemare/Carpenter re-sign to around $1M each, Engelland comes back for $1M (or is replaced by a similarly-priced veteran). This leaves VGK with $17M to re-sign Erik Karlsson and Marc-Andre Fleury.

Summer 2020:
Eakin's 3.85M cap hit goes away and becomes the raises to Haula and William Karlsson.

Summer 2021:
Tatar's contract expires in time for Tuch's extension.

Summer 2022:
Bobby Ryan's contract expires in time for extensions to Glass/Brannstrom.

EDIT: So even if William Karlsson would sign for $8M, it would be fine for this coming season and involve an extra trade (Eakin?) in summer 2019. And it's also why it's SO important to me that Glass/Brannstrom have their ELC's slide for one more year.

 

[Hunter368]

Not sure the team would consider going full scorched earthed rebuild, doesn't fit Melnyk's MO.

I'm having a tough time figureing what the Jets could realistically give up if Trouba isn't part of the deal, and honestly I'm drawing a bit of a blank. I just don't think the Jets could outgun a team like Vegas, or even San Jose without moving at least 2 of Trouba/Morrissey/Connor/Roslovic.

If Sens need a young D back as part of the package it’s doesnt make a lot of sense for the Jets who would want to add to current D not take away from our young D. Assuming Myers is traded to someone else. Not enough ice time for Buff and EK to be on the same team.....so Buff would need to be traded and Trouba couldn’t be traded then. Can’t trade Josh M b/c it would cripple our left side which is counter productive.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Do you need to shed it? You are already chucking Garrison and Grabovski after the season is done.

Yes, any team that has the Clarkson contract needs to dump the Clarkson contract

 

[Fandlauer]

If Vegas wins the cup, why would they even want Karlsson? You're gonna add more sugar when you have the best recipe in the world? It doesn't make much sense to me.

This may take one of the biggest bidders out of the Karlsson sweepstakes. His return is looking worse and worse every day.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

If Vegas wins the cup, why would they even want Karlsson? You're gonna add more sugar when you have the best recipe in the world? It doesn't make much sense to me.

This may take one of the biggest bidders out of the Karlsson sweepstakes. His return is looking worse and worse every day.

Because you need to stay ahead of everybody, you can't sit on your ass while teams like Toronto, Winnipeg, Tampa, Pittsburgh etc. Are adding pieces to get better.

You get better or you get passed.

 

[CupInSIX]

If Vegas wins the cup, why would they even want Karlsson? You're gonna add more sugar when you have the best recipe in the world? It doesn't make much sense to me.

This may take one of the biggest bidders out of the Karlsson sweepstakes. His return is looking worse and worse every day.

There's a lot of truth to this. Adding a top 4 could be the way to go the way Schmidt and Theodore are playing.

Yes, any team that has the Clarkson contract needs to dump the Clarkson contract

it's like an old Christmas fruitcake. You have to re-gift Clarkson. You just have to.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

There's a lot of truth to this. Adding a top 4 could be the way to go the way Schmidt and Theodore are playing.



it's like an old Christmas fruitcake. You have to re-gift Clarkson. You just have to.

Nah you can find a scattered person that likes fruitcake, it's rare but it's doable, NOBODY likes the David Clarkson contract

 

[Eltuna]

Everybody knows the Sens have financial troubles, but I don’t think people understand just how hard it’s going to be to sign Karlsson.

With Kane’s new contract, getting either Duchene or Stone to sign for less than 8 seems unlikely. It’s been speculated that Melnyk has an internal cap of 68 million but let’s pretend he stays at the 70 million that he did this year. If Duchene and Stone sign for a combined 16, Karlsson gets 11, and Ceci gets a raise to 5, suddenly you have 32 million right there. Add in Ryan’s 7.5, and Gaboriks 4.875, and that’s a total of 44.375 million (63% of their cap) in just 6 players, two of which (arguably 3 depending on how you view Ceci) are straight up bad players. That’s without factoring Hoffman in as well, who I think is probably getting traded after looking at the Sens salary structure. Even if Karlsson takes a discount at 10 per, I don’t see how they can fit him in.

The obvious play would be to be pony up and trade Ryan at a loss, and use his money to fix the Karlsson problem, but I don’t think that’s going to be possible. Look at a recent comparable in the Bolland trade, his negative value was determined to be Crouse. Crouse was a recent 11th overall pick in the strongest draft year since 2003, and was pegged by most scouts as a top 10 pick going into the draft. Bollands contract was also better, only being paid 5.5 for another 3 years, compared to Ryan’s 7.5 for the next 4 years. Bolland could also be put on LTIR, while Ryan still needs to be played. Asking a team to take 30 million in real dollars (since he’s still healthy) is a really tough ask and probably not possible. If he was to be traded (without huge salary coming back to Ottawa), using the Bolland trade as a comparable you’re looking at trading Chabot or the 4th overall with him, which is a terrible idea for a team that just finished 2nd last in the league.

Does anybody see any way Karlsson can be retained? To me it seems pretty likely he’s going to get traded this summer. The more I look into the numbers the harder it is to see any scenario where Karlsson is a Senator next year.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Everybody knows the Sens have financial troubles, but I don’t think people understand just how hard it’s going to be to sign Karlsson.

With Kane’s new contract, getting either Duchene or Stone to sign for less than 8 seems unlikely. It’s been speculated that Melnyk has an internal cap of 68 million but let’s pretend he stays at the 70 million that he did this year. If Duchene and Stone sign for a combined 16, Karlsson gets 11, and Ceci gets a raise to 5, suddenly you have 32 million right there. Add in Ryan’s 7.5, and Gaboriks 4.875, and that’s a total of 44.375 million (63% of their cap) in just 6 players, two of which (arguably 3 depending on how you view Ceci) are straight up bad players. That’s without factoring Hoffman in as well, who I think is probably getting traded after looking at the Sens salary structure. Even if Karlsson takes a discount at 10 per, I don’t see how they can fit him in.

The obvious play would be to be pony up and trade Ryan at a loss, and use his money to fix the Karlsson problem, but I don’t think that’s going to be possible. Look at a recent comparable in the Bolland trade, his negative value was determined to be Crouse. Crouse was a recent 11th overall pick in the strongest draft year since 2003, and was pegged by most scouts as a top 10 pick going into the draft. Bollands contract was also better, only being paid 5.5 for another 3 years, compared to Ryan’s 7.5 for the next 4 years. Bolland could also be put on LTIR, while Ryan still needs to be played. Asking a team to take 30 million in real dollars (since he’s still healthy) is a really tough ask and probably not possible. If he was to be traded (without huge salary coming back to Ottawa), using the Bolland trade as a comparable you’re looking at trading Chabot or the 4th overall with him, which is a terrible idea for a team that just finished 2nd last in the league.

Does anybody see any way Karlsson can be retained? To me it seems pretty likely he’s going to get traded this summer. The more I look into the numbers the harder it is to see any scenario where Karlsson is a Senator next year.

I think it's more likely he's moved at the deadline but his time in Ottawa is ending soon

 

[topshelf15]

I think it's more likely he's moved at the deadline but his time in Ottawa is ending soon

EM has painted himself into a corner badly here,trading him isnt an option if he isnt going to get something to get the fans into the seats...Picks and pipe dreams arent enough..

Resigning him also creates problems,EK wont be giving any type of discount to an owner that wont put money into the team..So he will want top dollar....And having an 11 to 13 mil dollar defender on a budget team just wont work...We so need a new owner sniff

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

EM has painted himself into a corner badly here,trading him isnt an option if he isnt going to get something to get the fans into the seats...Picks and pipe dreams arent enough..

Resigning him also creates problems,EK wont be giving any type of discount to an owner that wont put money into the team..So he will want top dollar....And having an 11 to 13 mil dollar defender on a budget team just wont work...We so need a new owner sniff

You sure do need a new GM, possibly a new coach although I do like Boucher, just not sure he's a head coach but he would be a FANTASTIC assistant, I wanted him as Babcock's assistant when Babcock was hired