Erie Otters 2020 Offseason Thread

[NOA]

If Fantilli is taken (which I have to assume even if NB doesn’t, another team in the top 7 will) and Nelson is surely gone by the top few picks, and we assume Erie is going forward...

These are the names I think Erie would be interested in, in some what of an order:

Ludwinski
Fimis
Delic
Goyette
Wakely
Haight


Would be surprised if they took any other name than these 6 just based off the type of player they are likely to target.

 

[EON]

Thanks for those names NOA, good to see. I hope they take the best forward available at pick #8, preferably one with some decent size while still being a good skater. I don't think they should take a dman unless someone surprisingly falls to them, but I don't know the draft class that well.

Weird things always happen with picks in this league but my tracking of them has this right now:

2020

1st

GUE 2nd, OTT 2nd

HAM 5th

HAM 6th

7th

9th

11th

12th

13th, KGN 13th

14th

15th

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

If this is accurate, I'd like to see them go BPA forward with the 1st, BPA dman with the GUE 2nd, then take a flyer with the OTT 2nd. From then on they can just do their thing with mid/late round picks. They struggle to hit on their flyer picks but their mid/late round picks always seem to be pretty good.

I'm just glad we'll have something sports related to talk about this week.

 

[NOA]

Somebody on the “OHL 2020 Draft” thread had Erie with 8th overall, 40th overall, and 49th overall.

I’m not 100% sure what our exact picks are but expect to see Erie with 3 picks in the top 3 rounds

Would agree with the outline from EON-
They should 100% go forward in round 1. I always stand by the fact you need star forwards to win in this league. You don’t necessarily need star defensemen. Sure, you need an overall good defense but you can get by with veterans that develop (such as D Raddysh or TJ Fergus, etc). As great as Drysdale is, if you were building a team would you take Strome/Fergus or Drysdale/Betz? You need to have elite offensive players in this league

The good news is that Erie’s MO is always to go forward in round one. So they agree with my mindset (same with EONs). Drysdale was an exception because he was such an elite talent and wanted to go to Erie

My guess is:

Round 1: forward
Round 2: BPA on their board
Round 2/3: American flyer

I really get the strong sense that Erie will draft another American from the Pens Elite. As they should too. I think it would be big to start building a connection with that development program which in recent years has turned out great young players. Evan Konyen continues to be a name for me to watch with Erie

 

[NOA]

Just 4 days until the OHL Draft

One round to keep an eye on?

The 5th round. These are Erie’s last 12 picks in the 5th round (dating back to 2010)

2019 - Christian Kyrou
2019 - Wil Murphy
2018 - Ethan Ritchie
2017 - Brendan Sellan
2015 - Nick Celotti
2015 - Ryan Martin
2014 - Mitch Byrne
2013 - Trent Fox
2012 - Darren Raddysh
2011 - Patrick Murphy
2011 - Sean Powers
2011 - Devin Williams

9/12 have played OHL games (75%)
(Wil Murphy still unsigned)

From 2010-2017, 7/9 (78%) proved to be respectable depth or really good OHL players.

Let’s see if Erie can capitalize again on finding really good depth and value in the 5th round. Certainly Kyrou appears on his way and Wil Murphy could join him

 

[OHL Fan]

A 5th round selection is a high selection and if a team scouts well they should play in the O some time. In some drafts the 5th round pick may be a team's 2nd or 3rd pick that year. So to say that 75% of your 5th rounders play in the OHL, that isnt a real accomplishment. If they have substantial careers, then ok, but if they just play portions of a year or so, then not that great. JMO

Erie has excelled in later round picks such as Yetman, Golod, Hoffman, Damato, Henry, Gillard. That is an accomplishment I can brag about if I was Erie.

 

[NOA]

A 5th round selection is a high selection and if a team scouts well they should play in the O some time. In some drafts the 5th round pick may be a team's 2nd or 3rd pick that year. So to say that 75% of your 5th rounders play in the OHL, that isnt a real accomplishment. If they have substantial careers, then ok, but if they just play portions of a year or so, then not that great. JMO

Erie has excelled in later round picks such as Yetman, Golod, Hoffman, Damato, Henry, Gillard. That is an accomplishment I can brag about if I was Erie.

I figured I would get someone who would try to diminish the numbers. It’s also not a brag but just making Erie fans aware to pay attention to the 5th round.

I prepared and researched the entire league though

Below is the success rate of players drafted by OHL teams from 2010-2017 in the 5th round that have had OHL careers. I did not include players that had minimal role for less than a season worth of games. But did include players with minimal role that played for multiple seasons (even if they were likely fringe players on poor teams). I didn’t count 2018/2019 players because it’s too early to tell on them.

Barrie - 6/11 (55%)
Guelph - 1/6 (16%)
Kingston - 4/5 (80%)
Kitchener - 4/5 (80%)
Oshawa - 3/8 (37%)
Ottawa - 5/8 (62%)
SSM - 3/9 (33%)
Sudbury - 6/8 (75%)
Niagara - 1/6 (16%)
Owen Sound - 2/10 (20%)
London - 7/15 (46%)
Peterborough - 4/9 (44%)
Saginaw - 3/8 (37%)
Sarnia - 2/6 (33%)
Flint/Plymouth - 4/9 (44%)
North Bay - 4/7 (57%)
Mississauga - 3/5 (60%)
Hamilton/Belleville - 4/9 (44%)
Windsor - 4/7 (57%)

Overall - 70/151 (46%)
League average outside of Erie is 46% success rate. Erie is 7/9 (77%)

Some teams certainly have the hit on more “star” players in the 5th round but a good amount are American flyers (meaning likely top 2/3 round talents). On the reverse side, some teams have their only success stories as 4th line players at best but I counted it.

The data also suggests that you are not likely to find and sign Star players in that round. Majority who do play in the OHL turn out to have limited careers (1-3 years as role player). There were a handful of “star” players, probably about 15-20 but again a good chunk of those were Americans. About 20-25 names I counted as a successful pick were very limited role players. The remaining 30-35 or so players had respectable careers

Calling the 5th round an extension of the 2/3 round is ludicrous. If that were the case, wouldn’t more teams value those in trades? Obviously the 5th round is going to have higher success rates than the 8,9,10 round and so on. But that’s the point of the draft... the further you get into it, the harder it is. And once you get past the top 50-60 so players, most teams just throw darts when picking.

 

[NOA]

Latest from Erie News Now has Dave Brown beginning “discussions with the coaching staff regarding extensions”

This franchise is so oblivious. Lol wow. Talk about an embarrassment if Hartsburg/all the coaches have played out their deals and after the last 3 years we decide to extend them

I told you after the season was canceled my gut said they would bring back Hartsburg and I was 100% right

This is potentially a SIGNIFICANT turning point in Erie’s future. We all agree, his style and demeanor (calling out fans/players in the media) is not a fit. His lack of success and inconsistent/no improvement seasons is clearly evident. And the rumors of players disliking him

But yep, let’s try to extend him!

 

[Puckit97]

Not sure how true it is but I read Erie could take Spencer Sova with the 8th pick Saturday.
A little surprising as he wasn’t ranked in the first round for most of the season.

 

[NOA]

Not sure how true it is but I read Erie could take Spencer Sova with the 8th pick Saturday.
A little surprising as he wasn’t ranked in the first round for most of the season.

Where did you read that?
Because that would definitely be surprising

Doesn’t make much sense for Erie to draft a defender. It’s also not their typical move. Especially to reach for one with the 8th overall pick..

 

[jjhound]

I figured I would get someone who would try to diminish the numbers. It’s also not a brag but just making Erie fans aware to pay attention to the 5th round.

I prepared and researched the entire league though

Below is the success rate of players drafted by OHL teams from 2010-2017 in the 5th round that have had OHL careers. I did not include players that had minimal role for less than a season worth of games. But did include players with minimal role that played for multiple seasons (even if they were likely fringe players on poor teams). I didn’t count 2018/2019 players because it’s too early to tell on them.

Barrie - 6/11 (55%)
Guelph - 1/6 (16%)
Kingston - 4/5 (80%)
Kitchener - 4/5 (80%)
Oshawa - 3/8 (37%)
Ottawa - 5/8 (62%)
SSM - 3/9 (33%)
Sudbury - 6/8 (75%)
Niagara - 1/6 (16%)
Owen Sound - 2/10 (20%)
London - 7/15 (46%)
Peterborough - 4/9 (44%)
Saginaw - 3/8 (37%)
Sarnia - 2/6 (33%)
Flint/Plymouth - 4/9 (44%)
North Bay - 4/7 (57%)
Mississauga - 3/5 (60%)
Hamilton/Belleville - 4/9 (44%)
Windsor - 4/7 (57%)

Overall - 70/151 (46%)
League average outside of Erie is 46% success rate. Erie is 7/9 (77%)

Some teams certainly have the hit on more “star” players in the 5th round but a good amount are American flyers (meaning likely top 2/3 round talents). On the reverse side, some teams have their only success stories as 4th line players at best but I counted it.

The data also suggests that you are not likely to find and sign Star players in that round. Majority who do play in the OHL turn out to have limited careers (1-3 years as role player). There were a handful of “star” players, probably about 15-20 but again a good chunk of those were Americans. About 20-25 names I counted as a successful pick were very limited role players. The remaining 30-35 or so players had respectable careers

Calling the 5th round an extension of the 2/3 round is ludicrous. If that were the case, wouldn’t more teams value those in trades? Obviously the 5th round is going to have higher success rates than the 8,9,10 round and so on. But that’s the point of the draft... the further you get into it, the harder it is. And once you get past the top 50-60 so players, most teams just throw darts when picking.

Of the 9 players selected by the Soo I believe only two didn't "make it" to the OHL. The others played US college while 3 played in the OHL.

 

[NOA]

Of the 9 players selected by the Soo I believe only two didn't "make it" to the OHL. The others played US college while 3 played in the OHL.

A good amount of players in the 5th round are college commits/US players/etc. Some ended up signing (making it a successful pick)

But the goal of any draft pick is to get the player to a) sign and b) develop

For instance, I don’t consider Dylan Larkin a successful pick for Erie. They tried to and nearly did sign him. They failed though. Doesn’t mean it wasn’t worth the “risk” but certainly wasn’t a success..

I understand some teams might take more risk in the middle rounds (thus lower success rates). That also shows you the value they place on the round if they are willing to take a high risk pick rather than taking their chances on a true middle round talent developing. More risk happens in later rounds for a reason.. there is less obvious talent to pick from

 

[Mata]

Sopa is returning to Switzerland according to reports, but that was expected....

Swing and a MISS on that trade.

 

[Mata]

Latest from Erie News Now has Dave Brown beginning “discussions with the coaching staff regarding extensions”

This franchise is so oblivious. Lol wow. Talk about an embarrassment if Hartsburg/all the coaches have played out their deals and after the last 3 years we decide to extend them

I told you after the season was canceled my gut said they would bring back Hartsburg and I was 100% right

This is potentially a SIGNIFICANT turning point in Erie’s future. We all agree, his style and demeanor (calling out fans/players in the media) is not a fit. His lack of success and inconsistent/no improvement seasons is clearly evident. And the rumors of players disliking him

But yep, let’s try to extend him!

Curious how many players they lose because of this and then it being blamed on the fans or the kids.

Dave Brown is becoming a bigger joke than Hartsburg at this point.

 

[Mata]

Not sure how true it is but I read Erie could take Spencer Sova with the 8th pick Saturday.
A little surprising as he wasn’t ranked in the first round for most of the season.

Most outlets have him listed as a top 5 defender in this draft. That being said, unless he was of a Drysdale talent/potential I can't see Erie going for a defender with the 8th pick.

 

[NOA]

Most outlets have him listed as a top 5 defender in this draft. That being said, unless he was of a Drysdale talent/potential I can't see Erie going for a defender with the 8th pick.

Nelson is the consensus top defender. Majority of scouts have McCoy and George as the next two. Some have Sova in that 4/5 range — meaning the 4th or 5th best defender. Though that doesn’t take into account someone like Casey who is the best American defender but is a college commit

Just makes no sense for Erie to reach that much on Sova. It would be one thing if he were the consensus 2/3 defender in the entire draft (including all college commits). But he’s not. Which means he’s a late first round pick at best.

 

[NOA]

Nelson is the consensus top defender. Majority of scouts have McCoy and George as the next two. Some have Sova in that 4/5 range — meaning the 4th or 5th best defender. Though that doesn’t take into account someone like Casey who is the best American defender but is a college commit

Just makes no sense for Erie to reach that much on Sova. It would be one thing if he were the consensus 2/3 defender in the entire draft (including all college commits). But he’s not. Which means he’s a late first round pick at best.

Dave Brown said he already knows who they want and expect to get at 8th overall. Whatever that means..
could certainly indicate they are reaching on someone so know he is available. Or he knows the plans of many teams ahead of him. Or he’s just talking out of his butt

 

[EON]

A dman would be an odd pick at #8 unless they have something up their sleeve with forwards in the 2nd round.

Where did you see those comments about the coaches from Brown @NOA ?

If true, I'm out on this team. Not spending a dime on tickets when I visit Erie, not paying for livestreams, not buying anymore jerseys. Hartsburg has to go.

 

[NOA]

A dman would be an odd pick at #8 unless they have something up their sleeve with forwards in the 2nd round.

Where did you see those comments about the coaches from Brown @NOA ?

If true, I'm out on this team. Not spending a dime on tickets when I visit Erie, not paying for livestreams, not buying anymore jerseys. Hartsburg has to go.

I hope this is just his way to avoid the topic for now. Or it means he’s extending the assists but not Hartsburg? But I have a bad feeling about it..

 

[Mata]

I hope this is just his way to avoid the topic for now. Or it means he’s extending the assists but not Hartsburg? But I have a bad feeling about it..

Another way of looking at it to keep some hope for the fans...

They are in discussions regarding extensions...the discussions are, there are no extentions???

One can only hope hahaha

 

[NOA]

NB has basically said they are going to draft Ty Nelson with the 1st overall pick

The rumors about Fantilli are all consistent: though he has signed with the USHL and intends to play in 2020-21 with his brother, he has NOT ruled out the OHL yet and would be willing to consider the league regardless of who drafts him.

As a player who has a late birthday, he would be guaranteed 3 years of OHL eligibility prior to being NHL drafted

So I ask you Erie fans, IF he slipped to 8 overall, would you take him? Separate to that, do you think Brown would.

First off, I don’t think Brown would do it. As for me? I would be really tempted. Obviously a huge gamble but the late birthday thing makes it more tempting as you could still get him for 2 years (guaranteed). I would need to have talked to Fantilli prior to the draft and hear him say that he at least would give the OHL a fair shot in his consideration (need a 50% chance or more if I were to take the risk)

 

[NOA]

Erie swaps 15th rounders with London for 2021

Erie gives London their 15th rounder in 2021 and receives Barrie’s 15th rounder in 2020.

London continues to dump 2020 picks for 2021 picks. While Erie is able to add another 15th rounder this year. They now have 5 picks in the last 3 rounds, an area they take pride in developing players in. That said, expect them to take 1/2 American kids with those extra late picks this year

 

[Mata]

NB has basically said they are going to draft Ty Nelson with the 1st overall pick

The rumors about Fantilli are all consistent: though he has signed with the USHL and intends to play in 2020-21 with his brother, he has NOT ruled out the OHL yet and would be willing to consider the league regardless of who drafts him.

As a player who has a late birthday, he would be guaranteed 3 years of OHL eligibility prior to being NHL drafted

So I ask you Erie fans, IF he slipped to 8 overall, would you take him? Separate to that, do you think Brown would.

First off, I don’t think Brown would do it. As for me? I would be really tempted. Obviously a huge gamble but the late birthday thing makes it more tempting as you could still get him for 2 years (guaranteed). I would need to have talked to Fantilli prior to the draft and hear him say that he at least would give the OHL a fair shot in his consideration (need a 50% chance or more if I were to take the risk)

At this juncture, short answer, no, I would look for an 8th pick that I don't know with 100% certainty will show up.

 

[Puckit97]

Where did you read that?
Because that would definitely be surprising

Doesn’t make much sense for Erie to draft a defender. It’s also not their typical move. Especially to reach for one with the 8th overall pick..

I heard it from a person who is some what reliable. I would not take it to the bank though, and I agree that I didn't think they would go D either. However this team honestly has holes in every spot.

 

[Puckit97]

NB has basically said they are going to draft Ty Nelson with the 1st overall pick

The rumors about Fantilli are all consistent: though he has signed with the USHL and intends to play in 2020-21 with his brother, he has NOT ruled out the OHL yet and would be willing to consider the league regardless of who drafts him.

As a player who has a late birthday, he would be guaranteed 3 years of OHL eligibility prior to being NHL drafted

So I ask you Erie fans, IF he slipped to 8 overall, would you take him? Separate to that, do you think Brown would.

First off, I don’t think Brown would do it. As for me? I would be really tempted. Obviously a huge gamble but the late birthday thing makes it more tempting as you could still get him for 2 years (guaranteed). I would need to have talked to Fantilli prior to the draft and hear him say that he at least would give the OHL a fair shot in his consideration (need a 50% chance or more if I were to take the risk)

I must be in the minority here but if he is there with the 8th pick I would take him if they foresee a 50/50 chance he plays in the OHL. His talent is far above anyone else in this draft class and many said he was just as good as Shane Wright a season ago.

 

[NOA]

I must be in the minority here but if he is there with the 8th pick I would take him if they foresee a 50/50 chance he plays in the OHL. His talent is far above anyone else in this draft class and many said he was just as good as Shane Wright a season ago.

I would agree. Again, I would need to know that he genuinely is still considering the OHL. Because of the late birthday, you could still get him for 2 years. Obviously it’s a gamble but he’s a consensus first overall pick.

Personally hope someone takes him 1-7 just so Brown isn’t put in that position. If they took him and he didn’t report - bad look. If they don’t take him but someone past their pick does and gets him, big regrets. But no worries if you never even had a chance to draft him as he was taken 1-7