Player Discussion Emerson Etem

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Raspewtin

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I wrote about why Etem should be a good contributor here:

At face value, Miller and Etem are incredibly similar. Lots of tools, good size, good frames, but just haven't been able to put everything together for any extended period. While this is much more true of Etem than Miller, they're both coming up to big seasons from a development standpoint, and there could be some nice return hidden in their fortunes.

Emerson Etem hasn't been properly utilized most of his time as a Duck. This year, he played more than 50 minutes with exactly 8 forwards, only two of which are top 6 caliber. The forwards Etem took most of his shifts with have been Rickard Rakell, Nate Thompson, Ryan Kesler, Tim Jackman, Matt Beleskey, Ryan Getzlaf, Jiri Sekac, and Devante-Smith Pelly. Three of those players in Thompson, Jackman, and Smith-Pelly are untalented plugs that straight up don't belong in the NHL. For a short period of time, Etem played on a "young line" with Rakell and Sekac, where they posted ridiculously strong possession numbers in about average situations. He finished the year a 58% CF% player with Rickard Rakell, and 66.4% CF% with Jiri Sekac. He also finished with 57% CF% with Ryan Getzlaf. Etem has shown he can play with offensive players in unsheltered situations for the first time this year.

This is also the first year Etem has posted strong dCorsi and rel Corsi% numbers, having career years in both metrics. Etem ranked 3rd on the Ducks in CF% rel with +2.7, and 4th with a +31.02 dCorsi among Ducks with at least 30 games played.

Etem most likely won't be the player Ducks fans hoped when he was drafted, but I see no reason why he can't become a strong middle 6 player. Shot chucker, hard to play against, with flashes of elite talent, maybe a 20-20 utility guy. Essentially what Matt Beleskey is right now.

These two young players need to take some sort of step forward this year for the Rangers to have a chance at replicating their President's Trophy season. If put in the right situations, these players can foster their growth and become important forwards down the line, bringing skills the Rangers don't have much of elsewhere. But it's now or never time for both of them I would say.
 

silverfish

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Etem posted a 0.59 G/60 last season 5v5.

His expected G/60 according to the formula (here) is approximately 1. If we play it safe and allott a .75 G/60 for Etem, and extrapolate his TOI over a 75 game season, he's looking at roughly 11 5v5 goals this coming season... If he plays to his expected value of a 1 G/60, 14 goals.

FWIW, 10 5v5 goals last season would have had him tied with Brassard for 7th on the team. 12 5v5 goals has him replacing Hagelin's total. Right in the middle of 10 (I rounded his raw 10.6 to 11 above) and 14.

So, 23 goals? I'll have what he's having.
 

Rick Nash 61

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Some more similarities between Etem and Milller

2013-14
NHL: 6 pts in 30GP
AHL: 43 pts in 41GP

Etem
NHL: 11 pts in 29GP
AHL: 54 pts in 50GP

2014-15
Miller
NHL: 23 pts in 58GP
AHL: 15 pts in 18GP

Etem
NHL: 10 pts in 45GP
AHL: 21 pts in 23GP

Both have dominated the AHL yet both have struggled to adjust to the NHL, but both have showed flashes of their potential, Miller more so than Etem this year. I also think they both take a step forward this year. Like Ras said, put them in the right situation and watch them thrive. But yeah it is now or never for both.

Attached Miller and Etem's hero charts as well and they are pretty similar.
 

Matz03

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I think we'll see real growth this year from both players, Miller and Etem have struggled similarly but they're different players. Etem is more of the shooter while Miller is more of a play maker.

I'm also in the boat that thinks Etem pots closer to 20 goals in a top 9 role. And I'll bet on that any day. Would love to see him with Stepan or the right wing. Or maybe even with Zucc and Brassard on the left side taking that Pouliot role.
 

silverfish

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I think we'll see real growth this year from both players, Miller and Etem have struggled similarly but they're different players. Etem is more of the shooter while Miller is more of a play maker.

I'm also in the boat that thinks Etem pots closer to 20 goals in a top 9 role. And I'll bet on that any day. Would love to see him with Stepan or the right wing. Or maybe even with Zucc and Brassard on the left side taking that Pouliot role.

I'll take that action
 

silverfish

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I said closer to 20, you said 11? so 11 vs 16 is also a big difference

K. I will take this fake bet for sure. We can do vcash or an avatar bet or whatever. Please note that I will not remember this has happened when the season ends, or hell, when this week ends. If you feel the need to bookmark, go for it.

Best of luck.
 

TurgePurge*

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Its hard to evaluate players in the offseason. Just kidding. Youtube search Anaheim Ducks, long, year.

Etem is a try hard guy. He'll chase the puck on the forecheck. He'll throw himself wildly in front of pucks to shot block. His play with the puck is a little like Duclairs but not as dynamic. He likes to get the puck and get on his giddy up through the neutral zone. Your not gonna win a trade where you give up the most underrated player in the league. But not fair to judge Etem under those parameters.
 

BlueshirtBlitz

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Big props to both Ras and Silver for bringing in good information with good context as usual.

We'll see how this dude does. I'm not expecting much, but if he can score 15 goals and 30~ points playing with some of the young talented bottom/middle sixers we have, it'll definitely make the loss of Hags suck a lot less.
 

LaffyTaffyNYR

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almost every young player here has gotten better under AV, no reason to think Etem can't do the same with the tools he has
 

Ola

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Etem is a better player than miller IMO. I think he'll score around 23 goals this year and be a poo type player and maybe even play with zucc and brass like poo did.

They are completely different "type" of players. JT Miller is a pretty fundamentally sound center type converted to wing. Etem can be a very erratic high octane offensive player. He has blasting top speed, but fundamentally he is a bit flawed in his skating too. Hence he doesn't always have a lot of speed under his skates and gets a bit behind the puck at the NHL lvl. But it's no coincidence that Etem had like 61 goals and 120+ pts in the WHL at the same age JT Miller had like 62 pts in 60 games in the OHL.

From my POV it comes down to this. For a long time players like Etem were pretty useless at the NHL lvl. Didn't get any room really. But especially if you look at like how the best teams played lately, with a high pressuring defense and a quick transition game, and a very diciplined defensive game, these guys have found a role at a few places. Kucherov and Pavlat are good rough examples IMO. Just 5 years ago, they would have been much more isolated up ice. Teams sent wingers up ice to push back Ds and centers got a lot of room carrying the puck up ice. Now we see more situations where Ds are pressuring the puck real hard, winning it a bit up ice, and very quickly turning the play giving wingers more ice to work with.

I am kind of excited about Etem because potentially he could fill a role like that. Hayes could open things up for him. Be nifty with the puck when he gets it. Be thaught to do a fundamentally good job without it.

Zucc-Brass-Nash
Kreider-Step-Fast
Etem-Hayes-Miller
Stalberg-Moore-Glass
 

BarbaraAlphanse

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I think Etem will start slow. It takes players a few months to grasp AVs system. But I think he will finish really well.

I pretty much think he will fill in the position that Pouloit left.
 

Raspewtin

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Thought I was coming into the Etem thread, not the "Advanced" Hockey stats thread.

Sorry, I must've missed where discussion of Etem that isn't the eye test was off limits.

Yeah, ill reserve my opinion until I actually get time to watch the guy for a month or so.

Awesome, then why are you posting here?
 
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Tawnos

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I wouldn't be surprised to see Etem take a step forward this year. 23 is not out of the range of a player figuring it out. Summers are important for players, and if nothing else, a trade can serve to focus a young player as well.

I find comparing him and Miller is a little silly. Miller established himself post-callup last season and the playoffs. In 73 games, he had 31 points. Expected 3rd liner production. Basically, he's a year younger than Etem and a year ahead of Etem in development. That's essentially a two year swing and not a good mark for Etem.
 

Raspewtin

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I wouldn't be surprised to see Etem take a step forward this year. 23 is not out of the range of a player figuring it out. Summers are important for players, and if nothing else, a trade can serve to focus a young player as well.

I find comparing him and Miller is a little silly. Miller established himself post-callup last season and the playoffs. In 73 games, he had 31 points. Expected 3rd liner production. Basically, he's a year younger than Etem and a year ahead of Etem in development. That's essentially a two year swing and not a good mark for Etem.

Yeah I agree.

Even if Miller never gets better he's a good middle 6 player as of now.

If Etem doesn't improve this year he could realistically be done in the NHL.
 

BarbaraAlphanse

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Yeah I agree.

Even if Miller never gets better he's a good middle 6 player as of now.

If Etem doesn't improve this year he could realistically be done in the NHL.

Ehhhh. It wouldn't be a good look but he could still have opportunities with worse teams. John Moore is similar. He just signed like a 3 year deal.
 

Draft Guru

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Feb 27, 2002
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Really interested to watch Etem under a new coach, in a new system and far away from home, where he can just focus on hockey. I think getting away from family and friends in California could be very good for his development.

Also, like others have mentioned with more advanced stats than just my eye-ball test, I've always felt he wasn't being utilized properly and put in a role to succeed offensively. I very much dislike when coaches take young players - who for their entire careers have been getting top minutes, PP1 time, etc on their teams - and throw them in a bottom 9 role in the NHL with grinders and expect them to produce on the score sheet. Player says I need more minutes to score. Coach says you'll get more minutes when you prove you can score.

I think AV will put Etem in a position to succeed. AV also spreads around the minutes more than Boudreau, who in WSH and ANA has relied heavily on his big guns. I'm not saying Etem hasn't been a disappointment, or that he doesn't have flaws, but I will say 1 year from now I think the majority of NYR fans will look back and see this as a good trade
 
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