Eller's Arbitration

[Whitesnake]

Great work, this tells me that all 3 are consistant, but those are not great numbers at all, from all 3 not just Eller...
We haven't had a good centre since Koivu...we haven't had a good centre with size since Bobby Smith...

This team hasn't been able to find a great centerman and great power wingers with toughness since way too long.

 

[Wats]

Outside of maybe DLR (Not sure he's LW or C - hasn't really played C regularly), no one in the Habs organization could replace Eller as long term big/fast 2way 3rd C with offensive production when given the opportunity.

Organizational C depth:
Tomas Plekanec - 32 years old
David Desharnais - 28 years old
Lars Eller - 25 years old
Alex Galchenyuk - 20 years old (hasn't played regular C in 3-4 years, spent large amount of time as RW in last year of junior and WJC)
Jacob de la Rose - 19 years old (hasn't played regular C, might try this season in AHL)

Desharnais has potentially Galchenyuk as a offensive only C replacement
Plekanec has potentially Eller as a two way C replacement
Eller has potentially DLR as a two way C replacement

 

[Miller Time]

I don't think Subban's low ball was a gamble at all. Subban was going to get paid bridge deal or not. 5x5 would have been the best deal for Subban, he was actually worth that value at the time and now the team would have him playing at a Norris level at a great contract. They would benefit from three years of savings. All the team did was ensure that Subban gets paid the big bucks earlier in his career now while potentially alienating a player. The team missed an opportunity to take advantage on savings.

Giving Eller a mid-term deal at 3.1 would be a gamble for MB. There is potential for the deal to fail if Eller plays like he did mid-last season, but if the Canadiens get playoff Eller on a consistent basis, 3.1 might look like excellent value.

exactly.

do not agree with the teams approach at all... harkens back to the Gainey era.


I don't understand what is so problematic with identifying talent and getting behind it. Constantly low balling young players is a direct recipe to difficult retention later on AND messing with a players confidence in a crucial development period.

If MB/habs really assess Eller as a 1.65M$ player, than they are out to lunch.

If they think that its an effective negotiation strategy to overpay for middling veterans (briers, desharnais), while playing hardball with players expected to/relied upon for more important and difficult responsibilities, i disagree strongly.


don't buy for one second that they are "saving" themselves any significant $$ or cap space by coming in with a ridiculously low number... unless that's where they really value Eller, in which case I find it even more ridiculous that they wouldn't have leveraged his strong playoffs and RFA status to trade him for an upgrade.


We'll see how it plays out, but chalk this up as another knock against how this management group is approaching the challenge of building a contending team.

 

[Pompeius Magnus]

This team hasn't been able to find a great centerman and great power wingers with toughness since way too long.

Yeah, for some reason even the prospects that we drafted specifically because they had those kind of tools in the last 15 years ended up never panning out as expected. I don't know if it's something that we're doing wrong development wise, evaluation wise or just sheer bad luck. Fact is, the combination of size AND skills has eluded us for quite some time .

Edit: I'm talking strickly about the center position here of course, I'm not counting Gally yet because it remains to be seen if he'll be a C or a winger at this point.

 

[Milhouse40]

Everyone agreed he was inconsistent. Then the playoffs happened and suddenly those ideas are supposed to be forgotten. And here's some stats that say nothing about his shift to shift on ice play that we all saw all season long.

Great work, this tells me that all 3 are consistant, but those are not great numbers at all, from all 3 not just Eller...
We haven't had a good centre since Koivu...we haven't had a good centre with size since Bobby Smith...

Are those stats suppose to change my mind about Eller being inconsistent? Because they don't.

The point was mainly that all 3 of our centers have been inconsistent in the last 2 seasons. Eller looked worst mainly cause he can't get those PP points here and there.

 

[JLP]

joint presser at 4:20?

That would be a smiley presser for sure.

Bergy: It is my pleasure to announce that we have come to terms with Rals Lerrer (giggling)... I'm sorry, "Las Reller" (laughter from all in room). Oh marde, I mean "Rals Seller" (falls off chair)

 

[Halifaxhab*]

That would be a smiley presser for sure.

Bergy: It is my pleasure to announce that we have come to terms with Rals Lerrer (giggling)... I'm sorry, "Las Reller" (laughter from all in room). Oh marde, I mean "Rals Seller" (falls off chair)

as long as they make a dance party video out of that one too.

 

[JoelWarlord]

WTH are you doing?!?!?! Around these parts we MUST lose our minds and take wildly one sided views on everything. Didn't you get the PM when you joined?

I mean in a general debate on what Eller's "worth" I think his fair value/value to the team is probably even higher than what he submitted as his starting point, but due to the rules on arbitration he won't be able to argue that. Everyone knows he's capable of being more than a 30 point 3rd line center, but he just doesn't have the numbers to ask for much more than 3M. Kinda sucks for him but them's the breaks.

 

[Miller Time]

Agreed on Desharnais and how he 'earned' that contract...wasn't a fan of that contract then, and i'm still not. Not because it's too much (although its definitely too long), but because of how it was handed out.

I think they probably overestimated a player who had overachieved everywhere up to that point. Certainly not one of Bergevin's best moments. But he's allowed to make mistakes, this one isn't a death blow.

Also, I completely disagree that he wasn't willing to gamble on Subban...that's EXACTLY what he did.

As for Eller...did I miss something? I mean, look up my post history, you'll see that i'm a big Eller fan. But the guy has a career high in points of 28, what's he done so far for him to get a significant raise at this point??? As far as i'm concerned, he's still got a lot to prove.

what has he done?

see below & consider:

- produced as well as our "top line" center despite getting inconsistent & weaker line mates, far tougher minutes (opposition/zone starts)

- led our forwards in playoff scoring in a run to the EC finals... despite averaging :28 seconds/game in PP time


now, it's one thing if the team has made the decision that Eller is maxed out or that the playoff production was a total fluke (and the mid-season slump... which occurred pretty much in line with when they broke up his very productive line & started the revolving door of line mates... is his actual level/potential).

in that case it makes sense to low-ball him with a 100k raise offer (which, for a returning RFA, is akin to delivering the very clear message that "you haven't done sh*** for us and we don't trust/believe that you are worth investing/gambling on).

but in that case it would make MUCH more sense to have traded him leading up to the draft... hard to believe that his value was not significantly more than a sub-2M$ RFA player. If they hold him in such low opinion/value, why not "fleece" some other team looking for a large bodied, young, defensively solid, fast skating C who has never had a legitimate top-6/offensive role opportunity. Easily some GM's would have valued Eller enough to give up decent assets for him.


but if the team is low balling him as part of some sort of cap management strategy...

i'm all for cautious and methodical approach to managing the cap. but that kind of approach is anathema to signing a Briere for 2 years @ 4M$... or the contract handed out to Desharnais... emelin...

not liking the inconsistency of approach in dealing with contracts.

yes, RFA offers some privileges that the team should take advantage of to help build the strongest roster it can year over year, but that HAS to fit into a bigger overall strategy to lock up/aqcuire the necessary pieces to be a contender.

the way they are handling these contracts gives the impression that they are too caught up on some dogma around playing hardball with RFA's... do not like the approach at all.

The consistency of Eller....
For the duration of Eller's Last contract (2 years including playoff), this is the 5on5 production of our 3 centers:

Desharnais : 0.43pts/game (64pts in 149 games)
Eller : 0.41pts/game (57pts in 141 games)
Plekanec : 0.38pts/game (56pts in 150 games)

Is Eller inconsistent? Yes mayby, but not anymore than Desharnais or Plekanec.
Of course, the others look more consistent because of the amount of Powerplay they get.

DD: +/- 420 minutes of PP = 25 points (about 1 point every 17 minutes)
Plek: +/- 328 minutes of PP= 30 points (about 1 point every 12 minutes)
Eller: +/- 126 minutes of PP = 8 points (about 1 point every 16 minutes)

In the last 2 seasons, all others centers were inconsistent....or they would've put up way better numbers than Eller.

 

[WeThreeKings]

Man this is frustrating.. Taking so long to sign two of the core players to the long term success of the team.

 

[Runner77]

Man this is frustrating.. Taking so long to sign two of the core players to the long term success of the team.

Well, one core player. I like Eller but he is not a core asset. If he doesn't want to commit beyond his RFA years, I'm fairly confident we can get fair value for him on the market.

 

[uiCk]

http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=457837

eller wants 3.1, habs offer 1.6

 

[Winter Eclipse]

Absolutely agree, it's a failure to get a negotiated settlement in place. It's just your last comment of "he apparently failed to negotiate" made it seem like he didn't even bother to pick up a phone.

Nope, I meant his negotiations failed.

I think we're gettting lost in the weeds a little bit here. This whole thing looks like each side trying to get more to their liking. So, going into this hearing (and there is still time to get a deal, O'Reilly made on literally as they were walking into his) there is still time to get a negotiated settlement.

Both sides will come in high/low "er" than what they actually want, hoping the arbitrator comes in closer to their comfort zone. I am sure numbers in between were tossed around by both sides.

Maybe numbers were tossed around; 1.65 and 3.1 aren't that far apart after all. That's kind my concern, though; if they're actually pretty close together at their "extreme" points, how come a deal couldn't (so far) be reached?

I believe you are confusing me feeling like I have an understanding of some background to MB's decision process with defending his actions. I can see why he does things, I can understand where he is coming from. I do feel that he has done some good (excellent in trades overall, ability to recognize mistakes and rectify them), some bad (Briere, Murray, Bouillion). Just as I can see why players, in this case Eller, would want what he wants, and chooses to do what he does. I don't view either side as being some cartoonishly heinous human being. They are likely both trying to get the most out of a situation, which is a normal uisiness practice And pro hockey is a buisness....except to us fans.

My apologies if it seemed I was applying that to you. It was more a general statement about the fact that, amongst all the cried of "Subban fanboys" there are a few posters who display a zealot like dedication to MB.

And I know you're going on a little tangent here with Subban. But I'll indulge.

At the end of the day, we are all guessing at the behind the scenes stuff. No one knows what is going on, or the why's.

If MB is outed as being some hard case that insults, demeans, lowballs and downright belittles players. I'll light a torch myself to help run him out of town.

But until that time, I prescribe to the notion that a GM will have a difficult time keeping or finding a new job by doing that, so even if it simply to protect his employment despite him being some kind of monstrously unethical human being, I'd believe self preservation would kick in and that would be enough to pull them back from the brink.

I'll just echo Andy's comments here, in that it seems strange the players that MB has apparent friction with. I've loved his off-season moves so far, but the Eller / Subban delays are strange to me.

But yeah, there's a huge range of possibilities as to why negotiations might be taking a bit long, and most of them are completely normal / innocuous.

 

[Runner77]

But yeah, there's a huge range of possibilities as to why negotiations might be taking a bit long, and most of them are completely normal / innocuous.

Fair to say that we can only speculate, until we see how both contracts are settled. Outside of Eller's and the Habs' arb. demands, nothing else has seeped out.

 

[Sterling Archer]

Outside of maybe DLR (Not sure he's LW or C - hasn't really played C regularly), no one in the Habs organization could replace Eller as long term big/fast 2way 3rd C with offensive production when given the opportunity.

Organizational C depth:
Tomas Plekanec - 32 years old
David Desharnais - 28 years old
Lars Eller - 25 years old
Alex Galchenyuk - 20 years old (hasn't played regular C in 3-4 years, spent large amount of time as RW in last year of junior and WJC)
Jacob de la Rose - 19 years old (hasn't played regular C, might try this season in AHL)

Desharnais has potentially Galchenyuk as a offensive only C replacement
Plekanec has potentially Eller as a two way C replacement
Eller has potentially DLR as a two way C replacement

I wouldn't be too worried. I can't see Eller not back with the Habs next season. Even if he wins his case the Habs won't let him walk. They'll take the contract and worse comes to worse, they can try to trade him for another C to take his place or keep him on until one of the ones we already have can.

Given the demand for Eller around the league as Bergevin mentioned, he shouldn't be too hard to trade and get a reasonable return for if it went that far, which I doubt it will.

I'd bet money that they'll settle in the $2M-2.5M range on another 2 year deal. It's a fair amount for Eller and will give him another 2 years to develop or not. In either case neither is commited to the other for a prolonged period of time.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Well, one core player. I like Eller but he is not a core asset. If he doesn't want to commit beyond his RFA years, I'm fairly confident we can get fair value for him on the market.

Your point is well taken but I'd really like to keep this guy.

I think people who argue "team over player" and talk about minimizing costs are losing sight of the big picture. Yes, it's great to get value contracts and that's definitely a key to winning. But you also want to create a sense of value for the player as well. Lowballing Subban the way we did in 2013 - and the way we appear to be lowballing Eller this time - is not the way to accomplish that. You want players to know they're valued.

I look at the example of Dave Steib with the Blue Jays. In the mid 80s he signed (what was at the time) a very lucrative deal of something like one million dollars a year. Within a few seasons though, payrolls and salaries ballooned. The Jays went back and renegotiated Stieb's contract offering him up more dough even though they had him for a few more years. That's the kind of organization that players love to play for. You send a message to them that they are your key guys and you value them.

I'm not saying we have to go overboard here but 3 mil is very reasonable money for a guy like Eller. Going into an arbitration case with a number of 1.65 (posturing or not) is not the way to go about things. How we wind up throwing 4 mil at Emelin and 3.5 at DD but can't come up with 3 mil for Eller (or even 3 mil for Subban in 2013) is a total mystery to me. Really arbitrary in how we seem to be handling our players.

 

[EveryDay]

http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=457837

eller wants 3.1, habs offer 1.6

24 hours too late.....

 

[Le Barron de HF]

There are not many comparable for Eller but Bailey, Anisimov, Hansen and Hanzal come to mind. I think Eller will get between 2.4 and 2.75M on a year deal with the arbitrator.

 

[Roulin]

There are not many comparable for Eller but Bailey, Anisimov, Hansen and Hanzal come to mind. I think Eller will get between 2.4 and 2.75M on a year deal with the arbitrator.

I agree that some of those names will be used if it gets to arbitration. Hansen is ineligible as a comp though, he's on a UFA extension. I'd add Backlund to the list, I think the Habs would use him as a comp.

 

[417]

see below & consider:

- produced as well as our "top line" center despite getting inconsistent & weaker line mates, far tougher minutes (opposition/zone starts)

This is going to appear as though i'm cutting Eller up, i'm really not. But this "Eller is cool, Desharnais is not" type of thinking is really childish.

Desharnais DOUBLED Lars Eller's point totals. Now I personally, MUCH prefer Lars Eller to David Desharnais, but let's not make things up and shape them in a way for them to appear as something they're not.

- led our forwards in playoff scoring in a run to the EC finals... despite averaging :28 seconds/game in PP time

Lars Eller had an excellent playoffs, but 16 games doesn't wipe away the poor 77 games he had in the regular season. Unfortunately for Eller, he picked the wrong year to have a bad year.

now, it's one thing if the team has made the decision that Eller is maxed out or that the playoff production was a total fluke (and the mid-season slump... which occurred pretty much in line with when they broke up his very productive line & started the revolving door of line mates... is his actual level/potential).

Myth...his slump had begun way before that EGG line was split up. People like to remember things as they want, but the EGG line wasn't productive when they were split up.

in that case it makes sense to low-ball him with a 100k raise offer (which, for a returning RFA, is akin to delivering the very clear message that "you haven't done sh*** for us and we don't trust/believe that you are worth investing/gambling on).

the 100K raise offer just siginifies that Lars Eller had a difficult year (and more importantly that he's an RFA who just had a shi**y year so his options are limited) and SHOULD negotiations get to the point where a third party has to intervene and render a decision, the Habs feel 1.65M is an appropriate offer for the arbitrator to work from. It doesn't necessarily reflect how they value him, it just reflects that should negotiations get to the point where they lose all control, they're covering their ***.

but in that case it would make MUCH more sense to have traded him leading up to the draft...

I don't know why you think the Habs don't value Lars Eller simply because they proposed a 1.65M arbitration offer. You're jumping to conclusions before all of the data is in.

hard to believe that his value was not significantly more than a sub-2M$ RFA player. If they hold him in such low opinion/value, why not "fleece" some other team looking for a large bodied, young, defensively solid, fast skating C who has never had a legitimate top-6/offensive role opportunity. Easily some GM's would have valued Eller enough to give up decent assets for him.

Probably because they don't want too, they value Lars Eller and what he can bring...but unfortunately for Lars, his year last year came at a bad time. His an RFA, coming off a bad year. The Habs are in the driver's seat here...but i'd be shocked if they're not prepared to settle around 2.25M-2.5M perhaps slightly more. Be patient and see how all of this plays out, instead of getting all worked up over a pretty standardized process.

but if the team is low balling him as part of some sort of cap management strategy...

Getting so sick of reading that term...

i'm all for cautious and methodical approach to managing the cap. but that kind of approach is anathema to signing a Briere for 2 years @ 4M$... or the contract handed out to Desharnais... emelin...

The Habs wanted Brière...and Brière is a proven NHL player, furthermore, he was an UNRESTRICTRED free agent. They tend to cost more than RFA's who have proven little and who are coming off bad years.

The Desharnais deal i'm sure Bergevin would like to have back, but i'd be shocked if there weren't some 'political issues' behind committing so much term to such an unproven commodity.

As for Emelin, it's too early to judge that deal...i'll give him a mulligan, we'll be better placed to judge that deal this year.

not liking the inconsistency of approach in dealing with contracts.

Well it's rare you'll find teams who have a consistent approach with all of their contracts. This isn't NHL 14 on a console.

yes, RFA offers some privileges that the team should take advantage of to help build the strongest roster it can year over year, but that HAS to fit into a bigger overall strategy to lock up/aqcuire the necessary pieces to be a contender.

Agreed here...and that's what the Habs are doing, so what's the issue???

the way they are handling these contracts gives the impression that they are too caught up on some dogma around playing hardball with RFA's... do not like the approach at all

I see no problem with it...it's the only time teams CAN play hardball. What's even more perplexing is to see people complain with this approach, yet complain some more when teams hand out money on July 1st to free agents.

I don't get it...is there a lack of comprehension when it comes to the word RESTRICTED vs UNRESTRICTED???

I'll agree that the PK Subban situation is a different animal, I can see and agree with some of the arguments that the Habs took the wrong approach when it comes to Subban (even if I don't entirely agree with that).

But Lars Eller??? I'm sorry, as big a fan as I am of him (and if you think i'm not, go read any thread about Plekanec in which I've posted in and you'll see how highly I think of Eller)...he's just not in a position of power right now. I know it might upset some of you who have Eller high on the 'Habs players popularity scale', but Bergevin's mandate isn't to appeal to your heart strings.

 

[Halifaxhab*]

Nope, I meant his negotiations failed.



Maybe numbers were tossed around; 1.65 and 3.1 aren't that far apart after all. That's kind my concern, though; if they're actually pretty close together at their "extreme" points, how come a deal couldn't (so far) be reached?



My apologies if it seemed I was applying that to you. It was more a general statement about the fact that, amongst all the cried of "Subban fanboys" there are a few posters who display a zealot like dedication to MB.



I'll just echo Andy's comments here, in that it seems strange the players that MB has apparent friction with. I've loved his off-season moves so far, but the Eller / Subban delays are strange to me.

But yeah, there's a huge range of possibilities as to why negotiations might be taking a bit long, and most of them are completely normal / innocuous.

there is definately a religous zealot - ness to the whole board recently. I prescribe to being a fanboy of the team, and if someone is on it....woo-hoo.

I can't begin to understand/explain/know anything about Andy's theory on MB's fricton (real or percieved) with any player(s). Either they get an agreement in place by the hearing, or, my guess, the arbitrator gives a 2.25M-2.65M award.

I'd like to think that once this file is closed, they have that final piece to look at our cap situation, and can firm up the final cost on Subban. I, like you, am impatiently waiting closure. The only reputable source (to me that is, I've found him pretty accurate) is Eric Engels and he has put out a tweet that expects a long term deal in place for Subban by monday. I'd like to be optomistic.

 

[RandR]

In La Presse story today, they use Brandon Sutter and Marcus Kruger as comparables.

Gap between Eller and Canadiens

The article is in French, but it includes a table showing how their stats compare (for example, all 3 had between 26 and 28 points).

Sutter looks like the best comparison to me. Aside from the stats,

Les deux joueurs ont été repêchés à deux rangs d'écart, au premier tour, en 2007. Sutter vient d'écouler la dernière année d'un contrat de trois ans, d'une valeur totale de 6,2 millions. Comme Eller, il est joueur autonome avec compensation.

ie- they were drafted 2 picks apart in 2007 and both are RFAs.

Sutter is on the last year of 3 years on a contract worth $6.2 million.

 

[Richiebottles]

Meet halfway. Pay him between 2-2.5 Million.

It is what he is worth.

 

[417]

Your point is well taken but I'd really like to keep this guy.

I think people who argue "team over player" and talk about minimizing costs are losing sight of the big picture. Yes, it's great to get value contracts and that's definitely a key to winning. But you also want to create a sense of value for the player as well. Lowballing Subban the way we did in 2013 - and the way we appear to be lowballing Eller this time - is not the way to accomplish that. You want players to know they're valued.

I look at the example of Dave Steib with the Blue Jays. In the mid 80s he signed (what was at the time) a very lucrative deal of something like one million dollars a year. Within a few seasons though, payrolls and salaries ballooned. The Jays went back and renegotiated Stieb's contract offering him up more dough even though they had him for a few more years. That's the kind of organization that players love to play for. You send a message to them that they are your key guys and you value them.

I'm not saying we have to go overboard here but 3 mil is very reasonable money for a guy like Eller. Going into an arbitration case with a number of 1.65 (posturing or not) is not the way to go about things. How we wind up throwing 4 mil at Emelin and 3.5 at DD but can't come up with 3 mil for Eller (or even 3 mil for Subban in 2013) is a total mystery to me. Really arbitrary in how we seem to be handling our players.

The PK Subban situation and the Lars Eller situations are ENTIRELY different.

Eller's just not in a powerful position right now, I see no reason why the Habs should 'toss him a bone' just because he's a popular player among the fanbase.

 

[Agalloch]

In La Presse story today, they use Brandon Sutter and Marcus Kruger as comparables.

Gap between Eller and Canadiens

The article is in French, but it includes a table showing how their stats compare (for example, all 3 had between 26 and 28 points).

Sutter looks like the best comparison to me. Aside from the stats,
ie- they were drafted 2 picks apart in 2007 and both are RFAs.

Sutter is on the last year of 3 years on a contract worth $6.2 million.

Sutter's contract was : 1.5, 2.0, 2.7.