Here's the TSN link:
The highest NHL salaries are currently just shy of $14M. So if there's an unprecedented free agent frenzy they totally resets the market, it should be significantly above that high water mark.
Detroit + Karlsson is probably not a basement team. There's also a limit to the amount of teams that can afford to pay Karlsson what he is worth on a 7-year deal, and Alfie has likely talked highly of the Wings organization and in Detroit, Karlsson would get to play for a healthy hockey franchise with a brand new arena and a history of spending money and competing. We would have lots of cap space with no big re-signings due.
But a player isn't going to gamble 5+ years of their career on what the team might be if they sign there. Especially when they're a lottery team that year before. That would be downright irrational.
Based on what San Jose gave up in return it seems like at this point there's a good chance Karlsson hits free agency. He may enjoy San Jose and sign an extension before then but my guess is if that was a strong possibility he would have signed an extension and Ottawa would have received a better return.
Anything is a gamble. I don't think a player would make a big life decision based on what a team was the year BEFORE. He would look at all angles, both on and off the ice. It's impossible to know what exactly he would give the most consideration, but after what he's gone through in Ottawa it's quite possible he would want to be in a place that has the ownership, GM and arena situation in top shape.
