Speculation: EK next offseason

[SirloinUB]

the max contract cap hit is 20% of the salary cap. for the 2018 -19 season that would mean no one can have a cap hit above 15.9 Million.

 

[obey86]

I think Karlsson knows a bunch of bottom feeders will offer him money, I think the dude wants to play for a winner.

The problem with that is that winners typically don’t have salary cap space to throw 11 million a year at one player so the pickings will be slim if he’s only choosing from good teams. He’s probably have to make an educated guess with a young team with good prospects and young players who is on the upswing. I’m not sure about San Jose’s cap situation, but maybe they do have the cap space for him moving forward, doubt many other good teams do though without trading their best players.

 

[Pavels Dog]

The problem with that is that winners typically don’t have salary cap space to throw 11 million a year at one player so the pickings will be slim if he’s only choosing from good teams. He’s probably have to make an educated guess with a young team with good prospects and young players who is on the upswing. I’m not sure about San Jose’s cap situation, but maybe they do have the cap space for him moving forward, doubt many other good teams do though without trading their best players.

If he stays with SJ, I think you can throw the "educated guess" out of the window. They had a poor prospect pool before, and now it's basically empty except for Merkley who is pointless anyway if they have Karlsson. SJ will not be a contender a few years from now, with or without Karlsson.
There were some rumors about Tampa, Dallas and Vegas being the teams he would sign an extension with. Don't know if that's true but that would make some sense at least.

 

[jkutswings]

7 years, my mistake. But if $12.5M for McDavid is the actual mark, I would still expect Karlsson to beat that. He has all of the leverage, and there will absolutely be multiple teams lining up to pay him whatever he wants.

Maybe it's 7x$14M then. But the point is that it's a Bizzaro-World type contract.

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

Anything is a gamble.

But some things are bigger gambles than others. Signing with a Detroit organization that just drafted in the top 5 is a little more of a gamble than signing with the Tampa Bay Lightning, who just went deep into the playoffs. Surely you can agree with that?

 

[Pavels Dog]

But some things are bigger gambles than others. Signing with a Detroit organization that just drafted in the top 5 is a little more of a gamble than signing with the Tampa Bay Lightning, who just went deep into the playoffs. Surely you can agree with that?

Yeah but does Tampa have the cap space?

 

[Cyborg Yzerberg]

The problem with that is that winners typically don’t have salary cap space to throw 11 million a year at one player so the pickings will be slim if he’s only choosing from good teams. He’s probably have to make an educated guess with a young team with good prospects and young players who is on the upswing. I’m not sure about San Jose’s cap situation, but maybe they do have the cap space for him moving forward, doubt many other good teams do though without trading their best players.

He will pull a Tavares and play for less than he's worth to play for a contender, I'm sure of it.

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

Yeah but does Tampa have the cap space?

I think they could make room. My expectation is that Karlsson is going to sign for less than we think, because he knows a full value contract would price him out of good playoff teams. But it doesn't just have to be TB. It could be a different safely playoff-bound team. My point is, many of those teams will be far more attractive hockey options than Detroit. If he's signing in Detroit, it's not because he believes in the team winning the cup, it's because he's getting his full 13 mil a year or whatever. And that's not a move Detroit should make.

 

[Frk It]

Remember when Stamkos didn’t even want to hear our offer? I remember.

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

Remember when Stamkos didn’t even want to hear our offer? I remember.

Pepperidge Farm remembers.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Remember when Stamkos didn’t even want to hear our offer? I remember.

He only met with one team, out of courtesy.

 

[Flowah]

He will pull a Tavares and play for less than he's worth to play for a contender, I'm sure of it.

Yeah these guys are super competitive. I mean of course they are. They're the top .0000000001% in their sport. They wanna win it all. And it's not like they're gonna get paid peanuts for the privilege. They'll still make many millions of dollars.

I really do think competitiveness plays a much bigger role than some people think when it comes to the places players (who haven't yet won) choose to go.

Of course who is competitive isn't set in stone and players can misjudge teams. It happens. You join a team because you think they'll be contenders (lololol Parise/Suter) and it never happens. Or you miss out on a team that is going to be because you think they won't.

 

[jkutswings]

If Erik Karlsson hits free agency, I think he's a big enough name that he can have both a good shot at a Cup AND well north of $10M AAV in the bank.

 

[Fear]

Every team that either has or can easily enough generate the cap space will at least kick tires with EK, so what does Detroit have that beats out everyone else?

 

[Hatter of the Beach]

. I think there are 3 major keys: zetterberg, lidstrom, and Steve Yzerman. What do you guys think?

There is a very real chance a whopping 0/3 of those legends will next be involved much next year. Unless you meant Z and Lifs they could talk him into it

 

[Henkka]

EK has just be traded to the sharks but no extension is in place. Is there any realistic chance this guy hits UFA and wants to come to Detroit. I think there are 3 major keys: zetterberg, lidstrom, and Steve Yzerman. What do you guys think?

Steve Yzerman will sign him to Tamp..... DETROIT.

Steve Yzerman salespeak:

"So look at our roster. We need just only one Elite RhD to run the PP and log 30min a night, otherways our defence is rebuilt. We also won this Jack Hughes in draft lottery and he is gonna join our young forward core. This team will rise fast on the top if you join. Just imagine Zadina on the right blasting your passes and Rasmussen at net-front doing perfect screens to your perfect shots.

I also signed Panarin and Bobrovsky from free agency, so we are also pretty nicely set in Goal and offence."

Panarin - Larkin - Mantha
Bertuzzi - Hughes - Athanasiou
Rasmussen - Veleno - Zadina
Abdelkader - Nielsen - Svechnikov

DeKeyser - Karlsson
Cholowski - Green
Ericsson - Hronek

Bobrovsky
(Bernier)

 

[Cyborg Yzerberg]

The reality is, we are not going to be a destination for UFA’s until we have something resembling Toronto’s core. We are a few years out from that. Which is all the same, we need to take the time and restock.

 

[Voodoo Glow Skulls]

Every team that either has or can easily enough generate the cap space will at least kick tires with EK, so what does Detroit have that beats out everyone else?

Good ownership, new arena, cap space, willing to compete for the cup, good living conditions, high draft picks, building team.

 

[jkutswings]

Steve Yzerman will sign him to Tamp..... DETROIT.

Steve Yzerman salespeak:

"So look at our roster. We need just only one Elite RhD to run the PP and log 30min a night, otherways our defence is rebuilt. We also won this Jack Hughes in draft lottery and he is gonna join our young forward core. This team will rise fast on the top if you join. Just imagine Zadina on the right blasting your passes and Rasmussen at net-front doing perfect screens to your perfect shots.

I also signed Panarin and Bobrovsky from free agency, so we are also pretty nicely set in Goal and offence."

Panarin - Larkin - Mantha
Bertuzzi - Hughes - Athanasiou
Rasmussen - Veleno - Zadina
Abdelkader - Nielsen - Svechnikov

DeKeyser - Karlsson
Cholowski - Green
Ericsson - Hronek

Bobrovsky
(Bernier)

That defense is anything but rebuilt. It's one stud, two interesting maybes, and 3 duds.

 

[obey86]

He will pull a Tavares and play for less than he's worth to play for a contender, I'm sure of it.

Tavares took less to play for a contender? Considering the biggest contract in the league is 12.5M/year (McDavid) and Tavares took 11M/year....i'm not so sure he took less. Unless 1.5M lower (actually less than that, because Tavares isn't worth what McDavid is) is your definition of "less". That's hardly a discount.

Bottom line, without major roster changes (which will be difficult considering all the no trade clauses on the team) , the Lightning can't afford Karlsson at 12.5M/year or at 11M/year if he takes "less".

 

[Frk It]

Tavares took less to play for a contender? Considering the biggest contract in the league is 12.5M/year (McDavid) and Tavares took 11M/year....i'm not so sure he took less. Unless 1.5M lower (actually less than that, because Tavares isn't worth what McDavid is) is your definition of "less". That's hardly a discount.

Bottom line, without major roster changes (which will be difficult considering all the no trade clauses on the team) , the Lightning can't afford Karlsson at 12.5M/year or at 11M/year if he takes "less".

The Tavares deal was 100% UFA years though... big difference.

 

[obey86]

The Tavares deal was 100% UFA years though... big difference.

So? The point is, if 11M/year is the definition of "taking less," the Lightning can't afford that either, even if taking market value is 15M.

Not to mention, Seguin is younger and arguably better than Tavares, and took 1.2 million less than Tavares did. No RFA years either.

 

[Cyborg Yzerberg]

So? The point is, if 11M/year is the definition of "taking less," the Lightning can't afford that either, even if taking market value is 15M.

Not to mention, Seguin is younger and arguably better than Tavares, and took 1.2 million less than Tavares did. No RFA years either.

All reports indicate he left a lot of money on the table offered by other teams to play in Toronto.

 

[Frk It]

So? The point is, if 11M/year is the definition of "taking less," the Lightning can't afford that either, even if taking market value is 15M.

Not to mention, Seguin is younger and arguably better than Tavares, and took 1.2 million less than Tavares did. No RFA years either.

That’s the only reason their AAV is close.. otherwise it wouldn’t even be close.

Not sure why you’re talking about Seguin, I was just talking about you mentioning that Tavares and McDavid are 1.5M apart.

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

Is it confirmed EK won’t sign an extension with the sharks?