Confirmed Trade: [EDM/DET] Andreas Athanasiou, Ryan Kuffner to Oilers for Sam Gagner (10%), 2020 2nd, 2021 2nd

[HugginThePost]

AA's upside is worth the risk, especially when you consider Holland likely knows he can recoup most, if not all, the value with a Poolparty trade before the draft this year. I hope AA works out long-term but even if he doesn't this isn't the sort of deal that really sets the team back like Chia would have done. Also, we are talking about a super skilled guy playing on historically one of the worst teams in the history of hockey so for anyone to think his advanced stats would be good are being a bit unfair.

You think you're getting 2 2nds for Jessie?

I think you're in for a disappointment.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

No dude, you have trouble reading. It is obvious what was written.

Yes, and you and your buddies failed to comprehend it somehow. The fact that you not only did that but continued to dig your heels in is very embarrassing.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Wait, are you guys trolling?

Read the following sentences;

He has good to very good skating

He has good to very good hands

He has a good to very good shot

Am I the one reading it wrong? He’s talking about a quality or skill that AA possesses. Idk why when posting that graphic but seems like he is.

The graph says “shooting: 12%” on the side. This means that when Athanasiou shoots the puck, the odds of a goal are 12% higher than they would be if a league average player shot the puck.

In other words...one might say “he has a good to very good shot”.

 

[Connor McConnor]

You think you're getting 2 2nds for Jessie?

I think you're in for a disappointment.

Based on today nothing is out of the question. Tampa just gave up 2 1sts and a A/B+ rated prospect for Blake Coleman and Barclay Goodrow.

Realistically I think a team might take the bait on a guy playing that well overseas but who knows maybe I will get disappointed. AA is a RFA and I doubt his value actually decreases even further after playing top 6 minutes with either McDavid/Drai for a full season. He might fetch a decent return next year anyway if he's not a good fit.

 

[Beerfish]

Yeah McDavid has been so hard done by.

Have you actually looked at who is being trotted out as his wingers.
Then have you looked at other teams combos of successful players?
McDavid made dregs like Maroon, Chaisson and kassian relevant scorers.
So yeah, as a top end player he has been very hard done by.

 

[SupremeTeam16]

I think Holland and Tippett have a specific role in mind for AA and Holland believes they can get him to do what he needs to in that role.

The fact that he would trade for him after the way his last contract negotiation went says a lot.

 

[Aceboogie]

The graph says “shooting: 12%” on the side. This means that when Athanasiou shoots the puck, the odds of a goal are 12% higher than they would be if a league average player shot the puck.

In other words...one might say “he has a good to very good shot”.

It says shooting: 5%

Even-strength offense says: 12%

 

[Aceboogie]

Yes, and you and your buddies failed to comprehend it somehow. The fact that you not only did that but continued to dig your heels in is very embarrassing.

This chart thats being trodded out literally shows EV Offense increases with AA on the ice

Showing a tweet that says (paraphasing) "AA has a good shot and great penalty differential" and then a chart of EV offense being good, is open to a ton of interpretation because the term "shot differential" is used all the time. You wouldnt say "he has a good shot differential and penalty differential" you would say "he has a good shot and penalty differential"

Regardless, he has upside, generates offense and was acquired for a fair price. The "the is the worst forward ever defensively!!!11!" alarmism schtick continues to be a overplayed

 

[NotLeddy]

I think Holland and Tippett have a specific role in mind for AA and Holland believes they can get him to do what he needs to in that role.

The fact that he would trade for him after the way his last contract negotiation went says a lot.

He doesn't need a specific role, just give him the icetime, give him compotent teammates, have him play with defensemen who can make a breakout pass and create rush opportunities, and he'll produce. He's not Alex Galchenyuk.

His last contract negotiation was overblown anyways, Ferris does what he does, and AA didn't go into arbitration coming out of that contract, and him and Holland got a reasonable two year contract done for fair value. That second part conviently gets left out of discussion when anyone brings up they're worried about him signing his next contract this summer and if he 'holds out' again (and he literally can't because he has arbitration rights).

 

[Shaman464]

Yeah, I guess Holland wouldn't have known about these issues before this year. Glad your "verified sources" were able to clear up what a problem he's been now that he's with the Oilers!!

Oh so young, so naive. You don't know Ken Holland. Holland is so timid he'd rather go with what he knows than to try something new. Look at your TDL pick ups. Two players from his former team. He'd rather take a player he knows, warts and all, than to take a risk on an unknown.

 

[Shaman464]

I think Holland and Tippett have a specific role in mind for AA and Holland believes they can get him to do what he needs to in that role.

The fact that he would trade for him after the way his last contract negotiation went says a lot.

It says Holland is still Holland. He trades for what he knows. Look at his last 10 years. He brought back players that left in free agency, took on established vets on their last legs, and trade for players he had lost in the past.

Examples (non-exhaustive): Samuelsson, Bertuzzi, Quincey, Osgood

 

[bucks_oil]

then why is he so much worse than everyone else in terms of +/-, other than his linemate filppula? maybe theyre just not good defensively

For what it is worth, Oilers fans have plenty of experience with being a last place team... in those seasons our "best" defensive forwards and our "best" offensive forwards routinely had the worst +/-. They get put out in the important situations, against the other team's best (defensive or offensive depending on the game situation) and get caved in.

I haven't watched enough of AA in Detroit to know if that's the case, so I'll have to trust you... but we've been sorely disappointed seeing guys leave our last-placed team only to have success elsewhere.

 

[bronco73]

Everybody saying 2 seconds is a lot to pay needs to give their head a shake. History proves that a player drafted in the second round has less than a 25% chance of ever playing in the NHL. I'll send those picks with Gagner (who was done as an oiler this year anyways, and now we get his cap hit back) to Detroit for Athanasiou and Kuffner every day of the week.

 

[Burnt Biscuits]

It's been said many times before, but McDavid doesn't need a speedster on his line to be successful, he tends to not have much trouble buying the extra time necessary for a slower player to get in position, what he needs is a guy who is smart enough to know what the right play is when they get in position, also a player who doesn't kill possession tends to be quite beneficial.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

I think Holland and Tippett have a specific role in mind for AA and Holland believes they can get him to do what he needs to in that role.

The fact that he would trade for him after the way his last contract negotiation went says a lot.

Holland went from rumored to trade AA entering last year to being happy with him by seasons end.

While I think he knows it hasn't gone as well this year he still has all those friends, my guess is he thinks he can get him dialed into the guy that competed hard last year when Holland gave him the ultimatum entering the season. We will see. I think this move makes a lot of sense for Edmonton. He provides depth and another scoring option. He has flaws but so do a lot of the Oilers depth players and he gives something different to that group.

Rewarding your team is also something Holland has believed in at the deadline. He went out and added, his superstars and a few of the other guys got them in a position for him to reward them.

I do think it was time to turn the page on AA in Detroit. While we all hoped the return might be better, we also have to admit that the flaws we have seen for years don't project well to playoff hockey and couldn't expect a premium return with him in the middle of a disaster season.

Yzerman is shaping his dressing room and I am not sure it should surprise a lot of people that one of the first names we heard floated pre-Christmas in AA was shipped. Ultra competitive Yzerman isn't a huge fan of guys that don't show up day in and day out. I hope AA takes this lesson with him, he is quite close with Larkin, Mantha and Bertuzzi. My guess is this is going to sting, hopefully for the Oilers it puts him into playing more of a team game and ramping his game more consistently to the higher level he only has flashed a lot and applied for more than half a year once.

 

[North Cole]

Micah says he has a good to very good shot, and an extremely good penalty differential. Two different things:

1. Good to very good shot.
2. Extremely good penalty differential.

His 5-on-5 shot differential is -59. That’s very bad and it’s not what Micah is talking about.

There wasnt a comma there. Instead of saying good-to-very good shot differential and extremely good penalty differential, you can surmise he left out the first differential. He's just got awkwardly placed modifiers, so it's a weird sentence, but it does work both ways. He only provides "+5%" shooting, so is that the differential? Or something else?


Example:

He has a yellow-green truck and a bright light-blue truck.

You can also say:

He has a yellow-green and a bright light-blue truck. You don't make the "truck" plural because the noun is governed by two adjectives independently. It's one yellow-green truck and one light-blue truck.

 

[MBH]

Here's the real deal on AA.

• He's not the player you want him to be without the puck.
• He's a little bit panicky when trying to pass the puck. He's not selfish, he just doesn't seem to have confidence when he has time to think. His best passes are bang-bang instinct plays.
• Going into this year, he was a top 10-15 5 on 5 goal scorer in the NHL over the last four years.
• This year, for whatever reason, the wheels fell off his goal scoring. He's shooting less. He's getting less breakaways. He's getting less scoring chances. His shooting percentage is down. I suspect it's partially the back injury he suffered in the preseason but also he's miffed at being relegated to 16 minutes a night after his great finish last year.
• Despite the -45, his defense is actually better this year. His CFA/60 is better. His shotsagainst/60 is better. He's had miserable luck. I can count only a few goals where AA really blew it.
• He's dynamic on the rush.
• His cycling game is weak.
• He's not good at walling off zone exists.
• He doesn't initiate contact and loses most 50/50 battles.
• Before this year, his value was far greater than what advanced stats/possession weirdos like to look at, because his ability to generate quality chances is among the best in the league.
• Before this year he was also one of the best in the league at generating powerplays.
• He scored 30 goals playing mostly next to Glendening and an anemic Frans Nielsen.
• If you play him 18 minutes a night, he's gonna produce and you'll be enamored with him. If you play 16 and below, he might pout and you'll think he's terrible.

 

[MBH]

Yzerman's trade deadline sucked.
He traded guys at low value and got f*** all in return.
I expected him to be smarter. Truth is, Yzerman's trades have been a mixed bag, going back to Tampa.
Honeymoon is over for me with Yzerman.
Wasn't thrilled with Seider at 6. Trade deadline was a bust.
He can ask for patience all he wants. But patience requires that he makes smart moves.

 

[inthe6ix]

It's been said many times before, but McDavid doesn't need a speedster on his line to be successful, he tends to not have much trouble buying the extra time necessary for a slower player to get in position, what he needs is a guy who is smart enough to know what the right play is when they get in position, also a player who doesn't kill possession tends to be quite beneficial.

So basically, Drai lol

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

This is a pretty good move by Kenny. He knows exactly what he is getting and everything that AA brings with him and will be able to explain him to his coaching staff. If things do not work out with the Oilers he can recover some of his investment by moving AA before he hits free agency. I think he should run pretty well for you guys first off the claim. If there was someone in need of a barn change it was AA. Good low-ish risk move.

 

[nabob]

Anyone have an idea of what a Kuffner is?

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

So basically, Drai lol

You seem very confused about this. No, just a player with good sense of where to be to score. Because McDavid is good enough to do the rest.

 

[nabob]

So basically, Drai lol

Drai is far from slow...or are you still clinging to the "Drai is a product of McDavid" trash because of how much better a play Drai is than Matthews.

 

[Aceboogie]

Here's the real deal on AA.

• He's not the player you want him to be without the puck.
• He's a little bit panicky when trying to pass the puck. He's not selfish, he just doesn't seem to have confidence when he has time to think. His best passes are bang-bang instinct plays.
• Going into this year, he was a top 10-15 5 on 5 goal scorer in the NHL over the last four years.
• This year, for whatever reason, the wheels fell off his goal scoring. He's shooting less. He's getting less breakaways. He's getting less scoring chances. His shooting percentage is down. I suspect it's partially the back injury he suffered in the preseason but also he's miffed at being relegated to 16 minutes a night after his great finish last year.
• Despite the -45, his defense is actually better this year. His CFA/60 is better. His shotsagainst/60 is better. He's had miserable luck. I can count only a few goals where AA really blew it.
• He's dynamic on the rush.
• His cycling game is weak.
• He's not good at walling off zone exists.
• He doesn't initiate contact and loses most 50/50 battles.
• Before this year, his value was far greater than what advanced stats/possession weirdos like to look at, because his ability to generate quality chances is among the best in the league.
• Before this year he was also one of the best in the league at generating powerplays.
• He scored 30 goals playing mostly next to Glendening and an anemic Frans Nielsen.
• If you play him 18 minutes a night, he's gonna produce and you'll be enamored with him. If you play 16 and below, he might pout and you'll think he's terrible.

Great post, thanks for taking the time. AA (IMO) is a top 6 player with holes in his game, and that is fine. He does some things at a high level, others at a low level. The Oilers arent looking for a top 6 player with all boxes checked, and dont have the assets/cap space to add such a player

The bolded are what interest me the most. AA is joining a team who scores a fair amount off the rush. The Oilers PP is also red hot this year, so if he can draw penalties, thats great. However, McDavid seems to get a fraction of the calls he should- the refs arent going to call 10 PPs a game for the same player. So itll be interesting to see how they treat AA. I generally dont complain about the refs, and do think Oilers get a fair amount of calls their way as well, but oh man does McDavid get clung on to in order to slow him down and the refs dont call it much

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

Anyone have an idea of what a Kuffner is?

He was signed out of Princeton last year as a College UFA.

He works hard, has a decent shot though he will struggle to be a NHL player.

Good depth guy for the AHL, but he has been in and out of the lineup in Grand Rapids at times.

I thought he improved a lot last year to this year, but he has a long ways to go. Competes hard, smart guy and I don't think he will ever cheat you on effort, just not sure there is enough talent there to climb out of the AHL.