ECQF/MDSF: (M1) Washington Capitals vs (WC1) Carolina Hurricanes | Game 7 is Coming | Part 2

[max21]

The lack of even-strength production has been surprising to me. Obviously, everyone knows how dangerous the Caps are with the man-advantage, but to have more PP goals than even-strength through 4 games? That doesn't seem right.

Though maybe the Canes can help that out by not taking so many stupid ****ing penalties.

Yeah it’s surprising in a way but hey that’s playoff hockey. I’m really looking forward to tomorrow, my birthday is this weekend and I’m pumped to watch some playoff hockey and drink excessively.

 

[JohnCarlsaurus]

And maybe that's the thing. Last year the Caps operated under desperation and the desire to do something they hadn't done. They were motivated to get over that hump and win the Cup. This year, they already have it, they spent last summer partying with it, and maybe that 'extra gear' of desire they had in the past is just not going to be there this time around.

Yeah. That's what we've been trying to say. We know they can play better but they're not. They are slumping AND you guys are out playing them/playing really well. It's both.

 

[Svechhammer]

Yeah. That's what we've been trying to say. We know they can play better but they're not. They are slumping AND you guys are out playing them/playing really well. It's both.

That's the thing. This isn't last year. They've already gotten to that mountaintop. That extra motivation just isn't there anymore, and its very difficult to recreate it once its gone. Its probably a fools errand to now expect that extra gear to come into play when there has been no signs of it being there this time around. And if I was a Caps fan, I'd be worried about that the way this series has been playing out. They looked gassed for long stretches of the 3rd last night.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

Two, I think the Canes have switched it up a bit. When it was 100% forecheck, the Caps were successful making the breakout passes to get opportunities. Now the Canes are picking their spots. Sometimes they'll go hard on the forecheck, and sometimes they'll sit back on the breakout pass. They're making it harder for the Caps to make easy decisions.

This is driven by not playing from behind rather than any strategic adjustment, imo.

The Caps never trailed in Washington; they gave the Canes pretty much nothing off the rush. The Canes never trailed in Carolina; the last 4 EV goals for were off the rush, as a result of Washington defensive breakdowns.

When a team has to come from behind, they are forced to play aggressively and that breaks structure. The Canes were made to look a bit of a mess in their own zone because of it in games 1 and 2. The same goes for the Caps in games 3 and 4.

The team scoring 1st has won 4 of 4 so far. I think that will define the series.

 

[illpucks]

I predict Canes win game 5

Playing better team hockey + momentum vs Capitals

I dunno. It's possible neither team can win on the road.

 

[max21]

Looks like the caps have recalled Smith-Pelly which many thought would happen. Maybe he’ll provide a spark like he did last postseason.

 

[Cardiac Jerks]

Saarela is the canes callup.

And Foegele didn’t get any punishment.

 

[Nsjohnson]

Smith-Pelly coming on up. Will be be Mr. Clutch for the Caps?

You'd think the Caps stop ******** around and end the series after that L and the Oshie thing.

 

[Neil Racki]

I don’t think this is just a matter of the caps just need to wake up. The canes came to play with a system, all 5 guys on the ice are doing the right things at the right times.

Their forecheck and how it makes caps shifts just be about escaping their zone has been the main issue. But when we do enter their zone w speed or space, it’s like they form a tight box and we take the outside shot. The only real chances we have seem to be when we are cycling that puck from the corner but then if orlov or a d guy pinches it’s like the canes break out w numbers.

Time for the caps to make an adjustment.

 

[Svechhammer]

I don’t think this is just a matter of the caps just need to wake up. The canes came to play with a system, all 5 guys on the ice are doing the right things at the right times.

Their forecheck and how it makes caps shifts just be about escaping their zone has been the main issue. But when we do enter their zone w speed or space, it’s like they form a tight box and we take the outside shot. The only real chances we have seem to be when we are cycling that puck from the corner but then if orlov or a d guy pinches it’s like the canes break out w numbers.

Time for the caps to make an adjustment.

They tried to make an adjustment in Game 4 to attack with a stretch pass, and the Canes were smothering it in the neutral zone.

Maybe the issue is that the Canes just have a really f***ing good defense that is making it incredibly difficult for Washington to do anything. The Carolina forechecking and backchecking is pretty much beating the Caps to the puck 8 or 9 times out of 10, and they're not giving the Caps any room to breathe if they try to skate the puck into the zone. We saw this start to come about in the first couple games, but nobody was paying attention because of the quick 1st period goals the Caps were scoring. But the Canes have been making things really difficult all series long.

And really, if you believe in advanced stats, this shouldn't surprise you.

 

[Neil Racki]

They tried to make an adjustment in Game 4 to attack with a stretch pass, and the Canes were smothering it in the neutral zone.

Maybe the issue is that the Canes just have a really ****ing good defense that is making it incredibly difficult for Washington to do anything. The Carolina forechecking and backchecking is pretty much beating the Caps to the puck 8 or 9 times out of 10, and they're not giving the Caps any room to breathe if they try to skate the puck into the zone. We saw this start to come about in the first couple games, but nobody was paying attention because of the quick 1st period goals the Caps were scoring. But the Canes have been making things really difficult all series long.

And really, if you believe in advanced stats, this shouldn't surprise you.

Sorry but I don’t want to reply or talk hockey with you and one other canes poster. Apologies but have a good day

 

[Svechhammer]

Sorry but I don’t want to reply or talk hockey with you and one other canes poster. Apologies but have a good day

oh hey everyone, look at the grandstander here.

 

[george14]

Caps win game 5 just because, eh?

Cool.

How insecure are you to give a petty response like that?

The Caps have a lot of offensive firepower. They have been silent the past 2 games. I think it will be difficult to keep them in check 3 games in a row. Game 5 will be the 3rd game in a row, therefore I think the Caps will have a big game. They are back at home and 2-0 there. I'm not a fan of either team, I simply gave my opinion.

You can't win with some people on here sheesh.

 

[Sword]

I'm worried, Kuzy's poor performance in the regular season has carried over to the playoffs, his wings are not flapping anymore.

 

[stopclickbait]

Sorry but I don’t want to reply or talk hockey with you and one other canes poster. Apologies but have a good day

Why are you on the playoff board and not the Washington board if you aren't willing to talk to Canes fan?

 

[JohnCarlsaurus]

Why are you on the playoff board and not the Washington board if you aren't willing to talk to Canes fan?

He said one or two guys, not all of them. That said, he could just put them both on ignore and be done with it.

 

[Tryamw]

For game 5 I'm not sure what to expect.
This game matters. I don't think either club will shoot itself in the foot.
Should be a good game. The Caps will probably come out flying. Canes will eed to absorb this to have a chance no more bad 10 minutes. Hoping the canes win but i think the series is over in 6

 

[Svechhammer]

He said one or two guys, not all of them. That said, he could just put them both on ignore and be done with it.

Bingo. You don't like me, don't want to talk to me, whatever.

But this "I'm not going to reply or talk to you" crap.... Oh puhleeeeeze.

 

[Chokingdogs]

So, if that wasn't a penalty then, why is it a penalty on the Oshie hit? Only because he injured himself on the play, which shouldn't change a thing. They clearly weren't gonna call it initially.

OMG? Lol

Not the same hit, at all.

Faulk saw Wilson coming, stopped, posted up in attempt to counter hit and got clobbered.

Oshie never saw the Xcheck to his back coming.

 

[LakeLivin]

Canes played basically the same game all year and went 0-4 against the Caps.

What changed? I think two things.

One, natural energy of the playoffs favors the Canes style of game. The aggressive forecheck that wasn't quite enough, now is, because they've got that extra bit of go.

Two, I think the Canes have switched it up a bit. When it was 100% forecheck, the Caps were successful making the breakout passes to get opportunities. Now the Canes are picking their spots. Sometimes they'll go hard on the forecheck, and sometimes they'll sit back on the breakout pass. They're making it harder for the Caps to make easy decisions.

That's how it looked from 333, anyway.

Oh, and three: belief. Climbing Caps Mountain after six straight losses is a big deal. These kids believe they can win -- and Foegele is the prime example of that.

I'll add a 4th possible contributing factor: "puck luck". Most agree that hockey is much more "variable" than other major sports, i.e., more-or-less "random" events can influence the outcome of a game more often. A hit post that a fraction of an inch difference would have gone in (or vice verse), a missed or bad call, a rut in the ice, a fluke bounce off an opponent, etc. Of the 8 games between the two teams so far this year, I believe all but 2 were extremely close, and could have gone either way. Four regular season games is not a huge sample size, a couple breaks could mean the difference between 0-4 and 1-3 or even 2-2. Given how close most of the games were, I wonder if some of that might have contributed to the actual end results?

 

[AD Skinner]

Hoping the canes win but i think the series is over in 6

Both those things can happen

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

Mostly because Faulk didn't lose an edge in the same way Oshie did. It's the same hit, but different conditions of the players involved.

Faulk was maybe more aware of the situation because he held up... but he also didn’t have the puck so it could be boarding or interference. Foegele’s push on Oshie is far less physical or forceful than this was on Faulk but this play just didn’t result in an injury.

 

[Navin R Slavin]

I'll add a 4th possible contributing factor: "puck luck". Most agree that hockey is much more "variable" than other major sports, i.e., more-or-less "random" events can influence the outcome of a game more often. A hit post that a fraction of an inch difference would have gone in (or vice verse), a missed or bad call, a rut in the ice, a fluke bounce off an opponent, etc. Of the 8 games between the two teams so far this year, I believe all but 2 were extremely close, and could have gone either way. Four regular season games is not a huge sample size, a couple breaks could mean the difference between 0-4 and 1-3 or even 2-2. Given how close most of the games were, I wonder if some of that might have contributed to the actual end results?

Some. But the Canes have been on the wrong end of PDO stats -- the "puck luck" stat, allegedly -- for a *very* long time, and I think it's because PDO is kind of a broken catch-all stat that doesn't take individual skill into account at all.

The Caps have more skilled players, period. Given the exact same opportunities, the Caps will convert more of them than the Canes will -- which is also true against just about every team in the league. Which means the Canes game is all about making sure that they get as many of those chances as possible, and the other team gets as few of those chances as possible.

In Game 3 you saw that in spades. In Game 4, the Caps outshot the Canes, but most of those were not high quality; high danger chances were roughly equal, and the Canes got one more. So there's your puck luck maybe.

Game 4 wasn't the Caps best, but it also wasn't the Canes best. I suspect Game 5 will see both teams doing their utmost to play their style. We'll see who wins out.

 

[Navin R Slavin]

Smith-Pelly coming on up. Will be be Mr. Clutch for the Caps?

You'd think the Caps stop ******** around and end the series after that L and the Oshie thing.

Yeah, you'd think so, right?

But what if... and just spitballing here... there's another pretty good team on the ice that also has a say?

 

[JMUcapsfan07]

I'm worried, Kuzy's poor performance in the regular season has carried over to the playoffs, his wings are not flapping anymore.

You almost have to hope it's related to injury or that concussion from a few months ago because any other reason would be very concerning moving forward into next season and beyond.