ECHL 2020-21 Season Plans

[CrazyEddie20]

We are looking at the season wrong. Some teams that gl dormant will fold, but what about the teams that try to risk it to have a season? Greenville (at least prior to the sale to Spire) was on shaky ground as it is. Would a team that plays run out of money? I mean look at Utah. Without Idaho they're an island. Travel for them is gonna be higher for them than a normal season with less money coming in.

Exactly. It's going to cost more to play this season with fewer teams. There's going to be less revenue with reduced capacity. Over the next few weeks, teams will realize that they won't be able to play without incurring enormous losses. The season will be cancelled.

 

[JMCx4]

... Over the next few weeks, teams will realize that they won't be able to play without incurring enormous losses. The season will be cancelled.

 

[royals119]

No, they actually wouldn't be. The salary cap is the exact same amount for Norfolk as it is for Newfoundland and every other ECHL team. What's different is the quality of player that can be had for that amount because of an affiliate paying more for the player than they're charged against the salary cap. But the amount being paid by ECHL teams, presuming they spend to the cap, is exactly the same.

Yeah, that is one part of the equation. You are presuming something that may not be true. Some low budget teams don't even fill their roster, and carry only 18 or 19 players instead of 23 or 24 to save money.

Short and long term a team will sell more tickets, merch, and sponsorships if they win more games, so quality players at $525 per week vs quality players at $1000 a week, is going to help a team on and off the ice.

I'm not saying it is the only difference between playing and not playing in 2020, just that it undoubtedly helps.

 

[210]

Yeah, that is one part of the equation. You are presuming something that may not be true. Some low budget teams don't even fill their roster, and carry only 18 or 19 players instead of 23 or 24 to save money.

Short and long term a team will sell more tickets, merch, and sponsorships if they win more games, so quality players at $525 per week vs quality players at $1000 a week, is going to help a team on and off the ice.

I'm not saying it is the only difference between playing and not playing in 2020, just that it undoubtedly helps.

Having an affiliate won't help at all in this situation. Not one bit. Zero. Zilch. The salary cap is the same for teams with an affiliate and without one. All an affiliation does it make the player you get for your money better.

 

[CrazyEddie20]

Yeah, that is one part of the equation. You are presuming something that may not be true. Some low budget teams don't even fill their roster, and carry only 18 or 19 players instead of 23 or 24 to save money.

Short and long term a team will sell more tickets, merch, and sponsorships if they win more games, so quality players at $525 per week vs quality players at $1000 a week, is going to help a team on and off the ice.

I'm not saying it is the only difference between playing and not playing in 2020, just that it undoubtedly helps.

There are, occasionally, guys on ECHL contracts that make ridiculous money. I know of a guy 15 years ago who was making $1250/week, but he was also probably the best goalie in the league.

There are teams who don't spend to the cap. Robert Dirk's abysmal Texas Wildcatters teams didn't. Generally, teams that don't carry a few extra bodies end up signing guys who don't really belong in the ECHL when they get hit with the inevitable injuries that come with professional hockey. This year, with fewer roster spots to go around (if the ECHL even plays,) a lot of those guys are just going to find straight jobs.

If you are keeping the operation going by cutting corners on player payroll, you probably should be in business in the first place.

 

[Atlantian]

I was just reading about the potential for an all Canadian NHL division, and the subsequent rumors that Utica, Bakersfield and Stockton would move to Canada temporarily, so the NHL teams could call up players without restrictions.

What if Newfoundland and Utica temporarily switched teams? The Growlers start the year in Utica and the Comets play out of St John's until the borders open. Brampton would likely work better from a travel perspective, as the flights from St John's to Vancouver would be complicated, but the fan support and facilities are probably better in Newfoundland.

I doubt it will happen - more likely the Comets just play out of the Canucks arena, or a local practice rink nearby.

I read yesterday that Canada is working on a plan to end 14 day quarantines by starting rapid testing in airports instead. If somehow they got a plan in place before Nov 30th, I think newfoundland may be able to play.

 

[Growler]

Well, the Growlers (and Beast) are special cases, in that if the border isn't open they can't play. However, for a team like Norfolk, if they have a limited capacity for fans, but the NHL/AHL club is paying a portion of the payroll, then they have a better chance to operate vs paying their entire payroll themselves.

If the border opens, and Newfoundland says only 25% capacity, the fact that Toronto is going to assign 20 players, would help the Growlers. So they would be helped, if the other criteria are met, that Toronto can't control.

There is no way any hockey is happening in Newfoundland. The border restrictions are not going to open up for months with the rate of spread of the virus. Note: Canada is going through a huge spike now worse than ever. This is because of the cold weather -- once the weather really hits the USA, it is going to be a wildfire considering the extreme community spread already existent in the U.S. (US should have 8x COVID death vs. Canada based on population, but 23x is the reality and the pace is growing 80x currently). Biden is 100% accurate - it is going to be a very Dark Winter. Canada's current spike is a canary in the coalmine.

The Eastern provinces have additional intra-Canada restrictions. Add the fact of the extreme cost for visiting team to travel to St. John's (and the Growlers subsidize), there is 0 chance a game happens until the entire COVID situation is under complete control.

I am very concerned about the career development of so many hockey players. Toronto's 3 tier model is on hiatus until they can figure out where to play some of these guys. Unsurprisingly, their AHL contract signees are less than half what they would normally be. Maybe the Leafs might consider something in the Great Toronto area, but there is no sign of anything like that yet.

 

[GindyDraws]

I don't like being a guy who jumps to conclusions, but I honestly think we're only going to be adding Idaho, Fort Wayne, Toledo, and Cincinnati to the January slate of games. The Canadian teams may not be able to play due to border issues and it's unlikely a temporary location will like being a one-year home for Newfoundland, and I think the New England teams are going to have to contend with strict COVID-19 restrictions preventing them from making much revenue.

I don't know what the situation will be for Reading, and if they can join, that would be great, but Kalamazoo sounds like a no-go based on Michigan's restrictions.

 

[Atlantian]

I don't like being a guy who jumps to conclusions, but I honestly think we're only going to be adding Idaho, Fort Wayne, Toledo, and Cincinnati to the January slate of games. The Canadian teams may not be able to play due to border issues and it's unlikely a temporary location will like being a one-year home for Newfoundland, and I think the New England teams are going to have to contend with strict COVID-19 restrictions preventing them from making much revenue.

I don't know what the situation will be for Reading, and if they can join, that would be great, but Kalamazoo sounds like a no-go based on Michigan's restrictions.

Has Ohio lessened restrictions? I thought they were still pretty bad too. And I do not see how they reasonably expect to play this season in Kzoo.

 

[GindyDraws]

Has Ohio lessened restrictions? I thought they were still pretty bad too. And I do not see how they reasonably expect to play this season in Kzoo.

Currently, Ohio has extremely tight restrictions for indoor activities but that may change or be given exemption.

 

[mk80]

I don't like being a guy who jumps to conclusions, but I honestly think we're only going to be adding Idaho, Fort Wayne, Toledo, and Cincinnati to the January slate of games. The Canadian teams may not be able to play due to border issues and it's unlikely a temporary location will like being a one-year home for Newfoundland, and I think the New England teams are going to have to contend with strict COVID-19 restrictions preventing them from making much revenue.

I don't know what the situation will be for Reading, and if they can join, that would be great, but Kalamazoo sounds like a no-go based on Michigan's restrictions.

Could Coralville Iowa where the Growlers owners are already planning to bring an expansion team in the coming years be a temporary home for them. I'm not sure what the restrictions/virus situation is like there. nor how the change in geography would affect divisions, etc. But it could be a potential option for a temporary home, and would give future fans the ability to get introduced to ECHL hockey.

 

[210]

I can't see any ECHL team temporarily relocating for this season. They'd lose less money by not playing.

 

[JMCx4]

Could Coralville Iowa where the Growlers owners are already planning to bring an expansion team in the coming years be a temporary home for them. I'm not sure what the restrictions/virus situation is like there ...

Depends on what day/week/month you choose as your decision point for temporary relocation & for starting the ECHL season. If it was back in early September, the answer would have been: "Are you stark raving mad?!" because Iowa's new COVID case counts had surged to near the top of the U.S. rankings. Even though several other states have since passed Iowa in that dubious distinction, Eastern Iowa is still a region of very high new Coronavirus case #s. Trying to choose a spot right now anywhere in the U.S. east of a line running from western Minnesota in the north to Central Texas in the south would seem to be contradictory to common sense; but I'm sure there are a few states in that very large land mass where a team could find sympathetic shelter under varying levels of business restrictions. The challenge for all ECHL team owners remains in predicting what the pandemic conditions & barriers will be in the next three months in either their home ice regions or in alternate home arenas. Another reason I'm glad I'm just a fan.

 

[Atlantian]

Some updates:
Commissioner Crelin talked with ESPN to give some sense of how the season is gonna go. Nothing listed that we didn’t already know except how flimsy the schedule could be. Something I found interesting was the AHL thinking about temporarily relocating 3 American teams to Canada for the season (Utica, Stockton, Bakersfield)
Inside minor hockey leagues' pandemic-season plans

Also, starting to think I am mistaken about Kalamazoo. They put in their ice for the season this week. Don’t see why they’d do that if they weren’t planning to play.

 

[wildcat48]

I still do not believe Maine will play as restrictions only allow 100 people. Last I checked Massachusetts and New York had equally if not more stringent restrictions and I still do not see how Newfoundland or Brampton play as long as the border is closed. Other than Reading which is currently 25% capacity that would eliminate the Northeast from playing hockey this season.

 

[LadyStanley]

If NHL Edmonton, Calgary and Vancouver relocate (temporarily) their AHL teams to Canada, I'm expecting each to run with a fat/big roster. (No roster limit in AHL)

First, near impossible to call up for injury replacement from (US-based) ECHL teams due to quarantine restrictions.

Second, it may be some crazy travel for those teams and extra bodies might help.

Third, probable crazy condensed schedule in AHL too.

 

[JMCx4]

Perspective from ESPN's Greg Wyshynski ... Inside the pandemic-season plans for the AHL, ECHL and SPHL

Leads off with quotes from ECHL Commish Ryan Crelin, with further ECHL-related content down the page.

 

[Bear of Bad News]

Try it again without taking shots.

 

[CrazyEddie20]

Try it again without taking shots.

Here's how I'd classify each team's chances of playing:

Sitting out:

Norfolk
Atlanta

State/Provincial/National Covid-19 Guidance Indicates No Chance:
Adirondack
Brampton
Cincinnati
Kalamazoo
Maine
Newfoundland
Reading
Toledo
Worcester

Teams that could go either way based on the state's guidance:
Indy
Utah

Teams in states that don't have strong covid restrictions (for now):
Allen
Florida
Greenville
Idaho
Jacksonville
Kansas City
Orlando
Rapid City
South Carolina
Tulsa
Wheeling
Wichita

Good luck playing with a 14-team league spread across two thirds of the country when revenues will be off by as much as 85 or 90 percent in some markets.

The smallest markets, Wheeling and Greenville, would incur massive losses and almost certainly fold were they to play in such a league, perhaps at the end of the season, perhaps before. Idaho and Rapid city are on travel islands and would see their travel costs balloon. Take those four teams out, and you're left with 8 or 10 teams:

Allen
Florida
Jacksonville
Kansas City
Orlando
South Carolina
Tulsa
Wichita

Even if you play with two four-team divisions without any inter-division games, the revenue from playing won't stanche the bleeding of increased costs. Fans are going to stay away until they know it's safe. Sponsors aren't buying advertising from teams that play in front of empty seats. Workman's comp and liability policies are going to be prohibitively expensive.

Until Covid-19 is under control, the situation is untenable and hockey really can't be played. If you can't understand that, I don't know what to tell you.

 

[CrazyEddie20]

And yeah, Kalamazoo supposedly has put ice down.

As I said before someone got butthurt, "The Titanic had lifeboats."

 

[GindyDraws]

Here's how I'd classify each team's chances of playing:

Sitting out:

Norfolk
Atlanta

State/Provincial/National Covid-19 Guidance Indicates No Chance:
Adirondack
Brampton
Cincinnati
Kalamazoo
Maine
Newfoundland
Reading
Toledo
Worcester

Teams that could go either way based on the state's guidance:
Indy
Utah

Teams in states that don't have strong covid restrictions (for now):
Allen
Florida
Greenville
Idaho
Jacksonville
Kansas City
Orlando
Rapid City
South Carolina
Tulsa
Wheeling
Wichita

Good luck playing with a 14-team league spread across two thirds of the country when revenues will be off by as much as 85 or 90 percent in some markets.

The smallest markets, Wheeling and Greenville, would incur massive losses and almost certainly fold were they to play in such a league, perhaps at the end of the season, perhaps before. Idaho and Rapid city are on travel islands and would see their travel costs balloon. Take those four teams out, and you're left with 8 or 10 teams:

Allen
Florida
Jacksonville
Kansas City
Orlando
South Carolina
Tulsa
Wichita

Even if you play with two four-team divisions without any inter-division games, the revenue from playing won't stanche the bleeding of increased costs. Fans are going to stay away until they know it's safe. Sponsors aren't buying advertising from teams that play in front of empty seats. Workman's comp and liability policies are going to be prohibitively expensive.

Until Covid-19 is under control, the situation is untenable and hockey really can't be played. If you can't understand that, I don't know what to tell you.

Whatever happened to Fort Wayne?

 

[CrazyEddie20]

Whatever happened to Fort Wayne?

Aren't they still in the IHL? Haha, put them in the group with Indy and Utah.

 

[JMCx4]

Aren't they still in the IHL? ...

I was thinking UHL.

 

[CrazyEddie20]

I was thinking UHL.

I wonder what carnival Richard Brosal is barking at nowadays...

 

[JMCx4]

I wonder what carnival Richard Brosal is barking at nowadays...

He's into Las Vegas luxury hotels & resorts now. I'm surprised you're not one of his most loyal Twitter followers.