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Series Discussion: Eastern Conference Finals: Caps vs. TBL

Who and how many?

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Bladerunner

Bladerunner

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aquablue said:
^^^ Agree, and I don't even watch anymore in the regular season. I'd honestly consider not watching them much next year until they get in the playoffs.
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Why? Don't they "always" choke?

Regular season is old hat and the caps have not really shown me that they can win. I used to watch all games every single on every year from Bondra era. Now no thanks, no way to this team that always chokes in the playoffs.
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To me it just seems you're burnt out. So until they win a SC you'll pan the reg season? You might not be watching reg season games for a long, long time. Maybe they can still win the SC this season? :dunno: But how long will that euphoria last? Good chance they'll be about the same, maybe worse next season.

I have to wonder what some fans definition of "choke" is. How do the Caps "always" choke in the playoffs?? It seems some peeps definition of choke (hopefully not yours) is my team eventually lost in the playoffs, i.e. didn't win the SC. By that ultra broad definition 15 teams "choke" every year. Such a definition makes the word meaningless. Maybe some fans definition is: my underdog team went up 1-0 or 2-0 then lost. There is another team competing out there ! Losing when up 3-1 is pretty bad even if your team is a slight underdog. Twice in recent NHL playoff teams have lost after leading 3-0. That's chokey.

My definition of choking is when a clear or overwhelming favorite losses, which is not a rarity in this sport. An example is Caps loss to Habs in 2010. Btw Pitt also choked that playoffs - to the same team. Excrement happens in the playoffs.

Here's a simple probability example. Team A has a 55% chance to win any game, therefore team B has a 45% chance. I wouldn't call team B a severe underdog, but team A is the favorite. There's a 4.1% chance team B sweeps team A (0.45^4) ! And if my calculations are correct team B has a 39.2% chance to win the series ! Even in this example I'd hardly say team A choked. Disappointing to their fans. Sure, but that's the playoffs.

Of course in reality game probabilities are a bit more varying and unknown, as is fans knowledge of key info (e.g. injury status of players). In most series match ups I doubt the better team has more than a 55% chance, say on average, to win a given game. IOW the underdog often has a ~40% chance to win a series and people act like this is some rare event. Severe underdog match ups are not common in NHL playoffs. What most people call "choking" are usually moderate to slight upsets.
 
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Ms Maggie

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Bladerunner said:
Why? Don't they "always" choke?


To me it just seems you're burnt out. So until they win a SC you'll pan the reg season? You might not be watching reg season games for a long, long time. Maybe they can still win the SC this season? :dunno: But how long will that euphoria last? Good chance they'll be about the same, maybe worse next season.

I have to wonder what some fans definition of "choke" is. How do the Caps "always" choke in the playoffs?? It seems some peeps definition of choke (hopefully not yours) is my team eventually lost in the playoffs, i.e. didn't win the SC. By that ultra broad definition 15 teams "choke" every year. Such a definition makes the word meaningless. Maybe some fans definition is: my underdog team went up 1-0 or 2-0 then lost. There is another team competing out there ! Losing when up 3-1 is pretty bad even if your team is a slight underdog. Twice in recent NHL playoff teams have lost after leading 3-0. That's chokey.

My definition of choking is when a clear or overwhelming favorite losses, which is not a rarity in this sport. An example is Caps loss to Habs in 2010. Btw Pitt also choked that playoffs - to the same team. Excrement happens in the playoffs.

Here's a simple probability example. Team A has a 55% chance to win any game, therefore team B has a 45% chance. I wouldn't call team B a severe underdog, but team A is the favorite. There's a 4.1% chance team B sweeps team A (0.45^4) ! And if my calculations are correct team B has a 39.2% chance to win the series ! Even in this example I'd hardly say team A choked. Disappointing to their fans. Sure, but that's the playoffs.

Of course in reality game probabilities are a bit more varying and unknown, as is fans knowledge of key info (e.g. injury status of players). In most series match ups I doubt the better team has more than a 55% chance, say on average, to win a given game. IOW the underdog often has a ~40% chance to win a series and people act like this is some rare event. Severe underdog match ups are not common in NHL playoffs. What most people call "choking" are usually moderate to slight upsets.
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Think if you are up 2-0 in a series, you de facto are the clear favorite to win that series at that point. Assume the odds if winning are even each game. Up 2-0 what is the probability of winning the 7 game series? Gotta be at least 75% is my guess, too lazy to run the math. Just my humble opinion.
 
VaCaps Fan

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Tampa bay is an odd team, they did the same stuff at the beginning of the series with the Bruins last round.
 
peterthegreat12

peterthegreat12

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Bladerunner

Bladerunner

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Ms Maggie said:
I t

Think if you are up 2-0 in a series, you de facto are the clear favorite to win that series at that point. Assume the odds if winning are even each game. Up 2-0 what is the probability of winning the 7 game series? Gotta be at least 75% is my guess, too lazy to run the math. Just my humble opinion.
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Yes, at that point you are. But that doesn't change the fact that the Caps won nothing from a series standpoint getting to 2-0. In this particular situation did TB all of sudden become a clearly worse team, i.e. an underdog all of a sudden? Well, looks like they showed the Caps didn't they ! After five games, 3-2 TB is were most pros and fans would have forecast this series.

Why not make the narrative that TB was choking at the start of the series? That's closer to the truth.
Caps might still win the series but now the odds are roughly 25% (assuming about a "coin flip" for each game). If TB gets to 4 wins before the Caps the series outcome was what most hockey analysts and fans thought it would be. If the Caps win the series I think it's more valid to say TB choked but I wouldn't go that route unless I was countering a TB troll :D Many fans make way too much out of short term variation. Especially in the playoffs. In the reg season a slightly worse teams beats slightly better teams twice in a row all the time and fans will hardly yawn. Except for fans w/the attention span of a plant :snide:

Did CBJ choke against the Caps? They had a similar reg season and finished strong. Caps were 0-2 then ran off 4 wins. However neither team was a clear or heavy favorite. So I don't think CBJ choked. IMHO it's a way over used term on sports boards - and seldom makes much probabilistic sense.
 
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Bladerunner

Bladerunner

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VaCaps Fan said:
Ticket prices down to $65 on vivid seats!

Tempted as well!
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Really?! Of course Vivid charges you to print a receipt (just kidding) :amazed:

At the start of the playoffs I told myself would go to one game each series. That is tempting but now looks like I'm coming down with a Spring cold/sore throat :( I might check TM just for curiosity.
 
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VaCaps Fan

VaCaps Fan

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That is crazy Sam! But the optimist in me says “it’s always darkest before dawn”...,
 
JMUcapsfan07

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My ticket partner didn't want to go tomorrow so I won't be in attendance since I didn't feel like paying for both seats.

Probably a good thing for the Caps as they're 1-5 when I have attended so far in the playoffs.

I still have hope. Let's go Caps!
 
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StrikingDistance

StrikingDistance

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Sam Spade said:
Check out ticketmaster ($73) there are so many tickets it's not even funny. The lower bowl is gonna have a ton of empty seats..

Fans can only take so much of watching the other team celebrate.
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Lower bowl are still the same as G4. The cheap seats are in the visitor 400's. Was considering averaging down my G4 costs (Sect 111) but not throwing good money after bad. No thanks.

I hope a bunch of rare Dolts fans buy up all the tix so the Caps don't feel too pressured and turn into the Craps.
 
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