Series Discussion: Eastern Conference Finals: Caps vs. TBL

[Bladerunner]

All time in the NHL, teams going up 2-0 are 311-49 (.864) in the series.

Therefore the trailing team has comeback to win the series 13.6% of the time.
The trailing team has to win 4 straight (like Caps vs CBJ) or at minimum 4 of the next 5 to win.
Assuming coin flips (each team has a 50% chance to win a game), the 0-2 trailing team will win a series 18.75% of the time. However the team that gets behind 0-2 is usually (not always) the inferior team.

Let's give the trailing team a 45% chance to win any game. Now the chance to win the series drops to 13.1% - very close to the empirical 13.6%

Would like to know the 2-0 playoff stats for the past 10 or 20 years.

 

[RandyHolt]

EDIT THIS POST IS ALL WRONG READ DOWN

All time in the NHL, teams going up 2-0 are 311-49 (.864) in the series.

That means taking out our DISMAL record, non Washington Teams are 298-6? I thought I saw the Caps are 13-43 when leading 2-0 in a series.

 

[CapsDC]

All time in the NHL, teams going up 2-0 are 311-49 (.864) in the series.

That means taking out our DISMAL record, non Washington Teams are 298-6? I thought I saw the Caps are 13-43 when leading 2-0 in a series.

It's not possible we have 43 of the 49 losses ALL-TIME, when leading a series 2-0. Is it???

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

All time in the NHL, teams going up 2-0 are 311-49 (.864) in the series.

That means taking out our DISMAL record, non Washington Teams are 298-6? I thought I saw the Caps are 13-43 when leading 2-0 in a series.

 

[ujju2]

I just voted in the poll. Caps in 7

 

[Capsman]

GMGM is waiting and you just know he's pulling for the Caps. He wants to win the Cup against them.

Why, he doesn't feel like he's screwed the Caps quite enough yet over the past 20 years?

 

[Devil Dancer]

All time in the NHL, teams going up 2-0 are 311-49 (.864) in the series.

That means taking out our DISMAL record, non Washington Teams are 298-6? I thought I saw the Caps are 13-43 when leading 2-0 in a series.

That's not right, I think the 311-49 stat is series win/loss numbers and the 13-43 stat is game win/loss numbers.

 

[RandyHolt]

That's not right, I think the 311-49 stat is series win/loss numbers and the 13-43 stat is game win/loss numbers.

Thanks for the clarification. Yay us we don't have 95% of the all time 2-0 choke jobs.

It's only 50% of them.

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

That's not right, I think the 311-49 stat is series win/loss numbers and the 13-43 stat is game win/loss numbers.

Hmm, 311 + 49 = 360. Have 360 series gone to 2-0? That seems like a lot.

 

[twabby]

Hmm, 311 + 49 = 360. Have 360 series gone to 2-0? That seems like a lot.

Not sure about the history of the NHL playoff format and 5- and 7-game series but that number seems reasonable given that there have been 15 playoff series a year since the 1980s at least.

 

[Silky mitts]

 

[Bladerunner]

That's not right, I think the 311-49 stat is series win/loss numbers and the 13-43 stat is game win/loss numbers.

That makes sense given my hypothetical "45% chance to win a game" of the 0-2 teams coming back was very close to the empirical series win-loss percentages.

And in the series the Caps started 2-0, from that point forward they're 13-43 in games. That has to include those series they won and lost. That, too, seems correct

 

[Corby78]

Hmm, 311 + 49 = 360. Have 360 series gone to 2-0? That seems like a lot.

after two games it can only be 1-1 or 2-0. so it sounds right

 

[ujju2]

It's a long way to the top, but all we need tonight is one little victory

 

[Sadekuuro]

That's not right, I think the 311-49 stat is series win/loss numbers and the 13-43 stat is game win/loss numbers.

Correct. The Caps are 5-6 in series with a 2-0 lead (I know, I know...), leaving 306-43 (.877) for everyone else.

 

[ALLCAPSALLTHETIME]

I picked the Caps to beat CBus in 6 games. I picked the Caps to beat the Pens in 6 games. I picked the Caps to beat TBay in 7 games.

Right on schedule.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Cooper full on calling his team out saying they were terrible, not engaged....

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

NBC gutting Kickerov....

 

[ALLCAPSALLTHETIME]

NBC gutting Kickerov....

He's not a former Ranger and he's Russian.

It'll be a feeding frenzy.

 

[SpinningEdge]

Where is the watch party for Weds?

 

[BallardEra]

I picked the Caps to beat CBus in 6 games. I picked the Caps to beat the Pens in 6 games. I picked the Caps to beat TBay in 7 games.

Right on schedule.

Let's hope man. Caps better come out ready to play instead of that sleepwalking haze we've seen in Tampa.

Get the first goal of the game and get Tampa gripping their sticks a little tighter.

 

[stanleycaps18]

Where is the watch party for Weds?

At the arena

 

[Lindemann]

I went to sleep after the 2nd

I saw the highlights of the 2nd goal. I love Chandler Bing. All hustle and pass scored that goal

He’s gonna be great

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

Enjoy this. There are three teams left alive chasing Lord Lloyd's Stanley's Cup this morning and the Washington Capitals are one of them. Wednesday is going to be special.

 

[CapsDC]

I went to sleep after the 2nd

I saw the highlights of the 2nd goal. I love Chandler Bing. All hustle and pass scored that goal

He’s gonna be great

The 2nd goal was a thing of beauty and the way they scored was perfectly fitting for our 4th line. Pure grinding. Stevenson made it happen with amazing hustle and Smith-Pelly finished after being the guy who initially cleared it and then chased the play back down the ice. He's not a super talented scorer but put the puck on his stick and he can score