Early look for 2021 draft

[MBH]

Struggling to remember if Turris was in his -1 year or his actual draft year. I know I should look it up and being lazy because I need to go for a run. I do know he terrorized that league for a year for sure.

Turris had a monster year but was seven points back of Bozak for the lead.
Wait - that was his Draft year,

He was like 17th in D-1.

Johnson's 101 points is the third highest ever in D-1.
Scott Gomez 124
Martin Kariya 105
Kent Johnston 101
Turris 72 (6th, by comparison)

In terms of PPG, Johnson is at 1.94. Newhook was at 1.47. Turris at 1.26. Gomez at 2.21.

But some of this is era-specific.
Gomez was 16 points back of the leader that year.
Kariya was eighth in scoring, 27 points behind the leader.

Johnson just won the scoring title by 30 f***ing points.

 

[MBH]

From what I can tell it was by far and way the best D-1 season in the history of the BCHL. The best comparable we have is Alex Newhook's DY-1 season in 2018. Newhook in his DY-1 was 17.63, his age based on September 15th, had 47 ES points, 26 PP points, 1 SH point, and a 1.47 point per game. Johnson was 17.91 years old in his DY-1 had 60 ES points, 39 PP Points, 2 SH points, and a 1.94 points per game. Unfortunately there's no on ice data for the BCHL so we're unable to tell if one player was getting luckier than the other, but all else equal Johnson was in a completely different world compared to Newhook.

I think looking back Newhook would have been a fine pick in the 5-10 range of the 2019 draft, considering the season Johnson had I don't think it's outlandish to suggest he is top 5, and I'd argue he has a claim to the #1 spot. I don't think it's out of the question for him to push 1.30-1.50 points per game, assuming he gets top minutes.

Newhook got undersold hard.
People fell in love with all the USNTP guys.
He was on my radar at six - but behind Cozens and Zegras.

 

[MBH]

In my dream we get Luke Hughes, Quinn Hughes wants to get out of Vancouver and wants to play with his younger brother. We sign him up. Jack is tired of New Jersey and requests a trade. Obviously we get him for a 1st round pick.

Triple Hughes brothers is the best fanfic.

If Quinn wanted to come to Detroit, he's got to be pretty sour we passed him up.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

Turris had a monster year but was seven points back of Bozak for the lead.
Wait - that was his Draft year,

He was like 17th in D-1.

Johnson's 101 points is the third highest ever in D-1.
Scott Gomez 124
Martin Kariya 105
Kent Johnston 101
Turris 72 (6th, by comparison)

In terms of PPG, Johnson is at 1.94. Newhook was at 1.47. Turris at 1.26. Gomez at 2.21.

But some of this is era-specific.
Gomez was 16 points back of the leader that year.
Kariya was eighth in scoring, 27 points behind the leader.

Johnson just won the scoring title by 30 f***ing points.

Qualified that in the post 2 after that a little later.

Again Turris with an August 14th Birthday to Johnson with an October 18th Birthday are one of those cases where you should probably be looking at different years.

 

[Ed Ned and Leddy]

Is there any word from the B1G or the NCAA on plans for the '20/21 season? I'd hope that things could start normally by college hockey season, so fingers crossed there.

I know that I just argued in another thread that the '21 group shouldn't affect our '20 draft strategy, and I stand by that, but it is true that the defensemen in '21 look really nice.

If we do take a Raymond or Perfetti this year, next year could be a good opportunity to either a) fill in another gap in our top 4 with a Lambos/Power/Hughes/Clarke/Edvisson/etc., or b) try and fill the 2C role with a Johnson/Raty/Beniers.

 

[Henkka]

Is there any word from the B1G or the NCAA on plans for the '20/21 season? I'd hope that things could start normally by college hockey season, so fingers crossed there.

I know that I just argued in another thread that the '21 group shouldn't affect our '20 draft strategy, and I stand by that, but it is true that the defensemen in '21 look really nice.

If we do take a Raymond or Perfetti this year, next year could be a good opportunity to either a) fill in another gap in our top 4 with a Lambos/Power/Hughes/Clarke/Edvisson/etc., or b) try and fill the 2C role with a Johnson/Raty/Beniers.

The thing with 2021 and 2020 for me is pretty clear.

You can project what's gonna happen. Team managements know these classes strengths and balances 1-2 years before we start thinking them just few months before drafts. They are so far ahead of any fan-based analyzes. Because they are professionals.

Like, this 2020 is very strong with forwards. Strongest for a while. If you tank and get that #4 secured, this draft offers so good forwards on that point that you can get equal guy at #4 than you get at #1 in a weak year.

4-5 teams are gonna get their #1 forward from this draft, just check it later.

Also, if you start now building up, and probably get few positions on next year, you draft like #6 again, and there's almost equal defencemen at #6 on that next draft. The draft position really doesn't matter when it's a group of defencemen. It's a harder group of preduct, and then the position means less. With great forward class it means more. They are easier to predict.

That draft with equal and harder to predict D offers us not to think too much of that draft position. Just because the drafts and our situation is what it is, you can start building your team on upswing, and not care about tanking, and keeping it still worse without any upgrades.

That has been the case in my analyzes for half year, when considering our actions before, and current situation. And how does this 2020 class does look like compared to others, and what that 2021 class been roumoured to be.

 

[newfy]

Kent Johnson or Owen Power should be top 5 picks and playing at MIchigan. Johnson will be the most intriguing guy to watch for me. Cant sleep on Raty either

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

Wheeler: Preseason ranking for the 2021 NHL Draft's top 32 prospects

For those of you wanting a defenseman in 2020, take a look at that selection of defensemen and centermen.

And for those of you wanting Askarov, there's always Jesper Wallstedt...

 

[MBH]

Wheeler: Preseason ranking for the 2021 NHL Draft's top 32 prospects

For those of you wanting a defenseman in 2020, take a look at that selection of defensemen and centermen.

And for those of you wanting Askarov, there's always Jesper Wallstedt...

Shit changes in 12 months..

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

Shit changes in 12 months..

Shit changes every 12 months.

 

[Henkka]

That 2021 is still a huge mess. I started doing average ranks for 2020 also 1 year before, and the lists were a lot more same as they are now, nearer the draft.

I could post some early average rank, because there's now multiple rankers done that 2021.

 

[Marky9er]

I'm interested in Power or Johnson at the top.

Zach Dean looking good if I'm hoping for a C to fall to 32 only to be disappointed.

 

[Ed Ned and Leddy]

This should be a unique draft for us as Michigan-based draft fans. Two really, really high end kids are going to be playing for Michigan next year in Owen Power and Kent Johnson. We could have informed opinions, which is a little surreal.

Now Beniers too. Pretty wild that three potential top 10 guys (Power, Johnson, Beniers) will all be at UM next year. I'm curious to see if both Johnson and Beniers, as freshmen, will a) get enough minutes and, b) play at center, or be moved to the wing. Either way, good news if you're a Wolverine.

I think this is a good draft for the Wings for a couple reasons...

1) the '21 draft is strongest at our biggest needs: defense, particularly on the left side, and centers.

2) because there isn't a consensus #1 guy, it might sting less when we inevitably lose the lottery.

 

[Henkka]

Jokke Nevalainen: Edvinsson follows the footsteps of Philip Broberg and William Wallinder as a big puck-moving defenseman coming out of Sweden. Edvinsson is a great skater for his size and knows how to move the puck very well. His strengths are on offense but he’s not a liability defensively either. Edvinsson’s coming out party happened at the U17 World Hockey Challenge where he was a beast and one of the top players in the tournament. Like Lysell, Edvinsson spent most of the season at the under-18 league because Frölunda’s system is so stacked. In any other organization, both players would have been full-time players at the under-20 level. But Edvinsson got some games at that level and proved making the jump to a higher level won’t cause any issues for him.

Simon Edvinsson, 6'4 LhD

This could be our guy. Lots of great left-handed defencemen at same pick range.

Dobber ranked him 9th, Wheeler ranked him 2nd. Could be anything year after.

 

[Henkka]

Early average rank, includes, Pronman, Wheeler, Dobberprospects etc. lists.

Pick	AVG	Range	Pos	2021 draft	Size/Hand	Nat	Highest
1	1,5	1-5	C	Aatu Räty	6'1 - L	FIN	1
2	3,7	1-9	W	Dylan Guenther	6'2 - R	CAN	1
3	3,7	1-12	RD	Brandt Clarke	6'1 - R	CAN	1
4	3,9	3-10	LD	Owen Power	6'5 - L	CAN	3
5	5,0	4-12	C	Kent Johnson	6'1 - L	CAN	3
6	5,5	4-14	C	Chaz Lucius	6'1 - R	USA	4
7	5,6	3-17	LD	Carson Lambos	6'1 - L	CAN	3
8	6,2	2-18	LD	Simon Edvinsson	6'4 - L	SWE	2
9	7,8	5-21	LW	Fabian Lysell	5'10 - R	SWE	5
10	8,3	6-17	C	Matthew Beniers	6'0 - L	USA	7
11	8,4	4-18	C	Mason McTavish	6'1 - R	CAN	4
12	9,2		LD	Luke Hughes	6'0 - L	USA	2
13	11,8		C	Zachary Bolduc	6'1 - L	CAN	6
14	13,0		G	Jesper Wallstedt	6'3	SWE	11
15	13,7		F	Cole Sillinger	6'0 - L	CAN	13
16	15,1		LW	Samu Tuomaala	5'10	FIN	10
17	15,5		LW	Zachary L'Heureux	5'11 - L	CAN	12
18	16,2		C	Daniil Lazutin	6'2 - L	RUS	6
19	16,6		LD	Aidan Hreschuk	5'11 - L	USA	11
20	17,9		LW	Brennan Othmann	5'11 - L	CAN	8
21	17,9		LD	Daniil Chayka	6'2 - L	RUS	11
22	18,8		C	Xavier Bourgault	5'11 - R	CAN	15
23	19,5		LD	Isaac Belliveau	6'0 - L	CAN	15
24	22,5		W	Simon Robertsson	6'0 - L	SWE	14
25	23,0		C	Zach Dean	6'0 - L	CAN	16
26	23,4		C	Logan Stankoven	5'8 - R	CAN	22
27	23,6		RD	Corson Ceulemans	6'2 - R	CAN	15
28	24,5		C	Francesco Pinelli	6'0 - L	CAN	19
29	25,1		C	Ryder Korczak	5'10 - R	CAN	15
30	25,1		LW	Sasha Pastujov	6'0 - L	USA	14
31	26,1		C	Joshua Roy	6'1 - L	CAN	22
32	26,3		C	Brett Harrison	6'1 - L	CAN	17

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Don't like Räty at all as 1st overall, but this will change many times.

 

[MBH]

Wheeler's list today
1, Clarke, RD
2. Edvisonsson, LD
3. Power, LD
4.Johnson, C,
5. Raty, C
6. Lambos, LD
7. Lucius, C

We're getting a C or LD no matter what

This year, the best LD/C available to us is Sanderson.
Next year you get your C in Johnson, Raty or Lucius.
If any of our later picks from the last couple years pan out, we'll have the corner turned.

Kent MF Johnson

 

[Killerjas]

Edvinsson is like Wallinder, definitely top 10 pick for sure

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Edvinsson is like Wallinder, definitely top 10 pick for sure

The skillset looks similar. Does he have consistency or intensity issues? That's probably the only thing keeping Wallinder from being a consensus top 12 pick this year.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Wheeler's list today
1, Clarke, RD
2. Edvisonsson, LD
3. Power, LD
4.Johnson, C,
5. Raty, C
6. Lambos, LD
7. Lucius, C

We're getting a C or LD no matter what

This year, the best LD/C available to us is Sanderson.
Next year you get your C in Johnson, Raty or Lucius.
If any of our later picks from the last couple years pan out, we'll have the corner turned.

Kent MF Johnson

I think we get our C this year, whether it be Stutzle, Rossi or Perfetti. I would actually be ok with Detroit trading a 2nd or 3rd rounder to swap spots with Ottawa to ensure that we get Stutzle if Ottawa wants Raymond. Or we end up with Rossi or Perfetti who end up as 2Cs at worst.

Next year is for D! Hughes, Clarke, Lambos or Power. All 4 are looking like great choices.

 

[Barry Amsterdam]

Why not C both years

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Why not C both years

Are we trading Larkin for Seth Jones so he and his pal Zack Werenski can be together?

 

[deca guard]

 

[MBH]

Why not C both years

Because Rossi and Perfetti and Lundell all have real concerns at center.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

Edvinsson is like Wallinder, definitely top 10 pick for sure

I think he has much more pure skill than Wallinder to be honest. He is a really good player that deserves the same attention the NA defensemen are getting.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

Because Rossi and Perfetti and Lundell all have real concerns at center.

I don't think there are concerns about Lundell playing center, it is how high up of a center is he. Reminds me a lot of Lars Eller, but I think ultimately he will be a better player than Eller with a little more offensive punch.