Dylan Larkin part 2

[SirloinUB]

I could see Larkin and Radulov being a very nice duo.

 

[Yemack]

What do you guys realistically expect point wise from him going forward? I expect a guy who can play 1C and score 60 points a year. Obviously if a guy with Kanes skillset shows up on Larkins wing, he could score more. But I think in order for Larkin to exceed around 60 it is going to take an offensive catalyst on his line to do it.

I expect him to become similar type of player as Fedorov, post MVP years. That was my initial impression on him and it hasn't changed that much so far.

When I played hockey I was one of the fastest guy on the ice and what it does is that, not only it enables you move faster than anybody, it also allows you to think faster than anybody on ice. You are really really focused when you are either moving fast or driving fast. I would not dare compare myself to Larkin but I think I see some of that when a speedster of this team make a nice play. A season or two ago, Nyquist was thinking faster than opposition D and was able to exploit the D better. Now it's Larkin and I think Fedorov was like that as well. Fedorov always had very good awareness and understanding of the game.

Anyways, same as Fedorov, I dont think Nyquist or Larkin will ever lose something they have in the skill set, but how will that translate next season and beyond? I would be lying if I say I know how it will turn out. I still believe that he needs to be better at winning battles and keeping possession at slower speed. If he can mix that with his speed, he will have tools to be effective in any situation. And this team really needs someone to carry a line individually. Now this team kinda turned into a passing team which makes it easier for the other teams to predict where the puck is going before we even make play which might have something to do with how this team's PP was so bad this past season. This team really needs someone to throw a curve ball and fool the other team by beating them on 1-1. If we can mix current passing game with some individual skills, it's going to be pretty hard to defend, offense wise at least.

 

[GoAwayDanCleary]

Birthday boy

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

Happy 20th Birthday to birthday boy Dylan Larkin.

 

[SpookyTsuki]

Still can't drink

 

[jolly roger]

​

Still can't drink

Windsor

 

[SpookyTsuki]

​

Windsor

Don't you have to be Canadian to do that?

 

[GoAwayDanCleary]

Don't you have to be Canadian to do that?

That was a hoax... I fell for it too

 

[Classicnamesup]

If it is legal in Ontario, why would they care that it's illegal where you are from? I would sell liquor to a guy with a UAE passport

 

[Ricko Balboa]

Hey wings fans I picked Larkin in my pool keeper ahead of Alex Wennberg, Bo Horvat and Robby Fabbri... Am I crazy? Do you think I made the best pick up? I'm a habs fan and french is my first language, so sorry if I dont have perfect english I like too much what I saw with this kid last year so

 

[BinCookin]

Hey wings fans I picked Larkin in my pool keeper ahead of Alex Wennberg, Bo Horvat and Robby Fabbri... Am I crazy? Do you think I made the best pick up? I'm a habs fan and french is my first language, so sorry if I dont have perfect english I like too much what I saw with this kid last year so

Larkin is infinitely better than Wennberg and Horvat and Fabbri IMHO.
Not to mention he will get top 6 playing time in Detroit. And I cannot say any of those 3 will get Larkin's playing time.

 

[Ricko Balboa]

Larkin is infinitely better than Wennberg and Horvat and Fabbri IMHO.
Not to mention he will get top 6 playing time in Detroit. And I cannot say any of those 3 will get Larkin's playing time.

You really think he's that better than these guys ? I think I made a good pick

 

[BinCookin]

You really think he's that better than these guys ? I think I made a good pick

Well Last year:

Larkin 80GP: 45Pts
Wennberg 69GP: 40Pts
Fabbri 72GP: 37Pts
Horvat 82GP: 40 Pts

So I guess its closer than it looks.
I still like Larkin best of those guys. (playing time will be key)

Edit: Also Larkin did that with almost no PP points/Time.

 

[Ricko Balboa]

Well Last year:

Larkin 80GP: 45Pts
Wennberg 69GP: 40Pts
Fabbri 72GP: 37Pts
Horvat 82GP: 40 Pts

So I guess its closer than it looks.
I still like Larkin best of those guys. (playing time will be key)

Edit: Also Larkin did that with almost no PP points/Time.

nice I didn't know that!

 

[Heraldic]

Larkin's production on PP was surprisingly bad compared to his 5v5 production.

Detroit's forwards points per 60 by players who played at least 100 minutes on PP:

Datsyuk - 5.36
Zetterberg - 4.90
Richards - 3.90
Tatar - 3.90
Nyquist - 3.08
Abdelkader - 2.96
Larkin - 1.92

His number is actually one of the worst among forwards with at least 100 minutes played on PP in the whole league. Some of it has to do with the fact that he usually didn't play on the first PP unit. But neither did every player on that list.

His production on PP relative to his minutes was actually worse on PP than on 5v5.

 

[Wood Stick]

I'm expecting high 40s/low 50s in points next year. The second year is generally pretty hard as players are more familiar with you. I expect him to be a much better player even if his numbers aren't much better. I really want to start the development at centre, and moving him away from Zetterberg to run a line. I really think Tomas Tatar's puck skills and the ability to create offensive chances should get him on a line with Larkin. Probably the best offensive player on the team. I'd then pair a big body, a good skater, and a solid TWF in Abdelkader on the other wing. I think style wise, it makes sense.

After that, you do your thing I suppose. I'd certainly take Larks over the guys mentioned above though.

 

[Mount Suribachi]

As much as we need him to maintain/improve his point totals, the more important thing for me is to see him fit and competitive through the whole regular season - same with Mrazek. If these guys are the future, they need to take the next step to being an 82 game player.

 

[haulinbass]

I love Larkin but can't stand the level of expectations people have for this kid. Let's start this post off by noting that I have Larkin as my display picture.

Larkin's only truly elite skillets are his speed and work ethics. He is a fairly smart player but he has shown nothing to indicate that he has say Zetterberg's level of playmaking ability. People don't see all the details that make a player like Z a true 1st line player. The great vision he has to make long passes out of the defensive zone, all those little skills that add up to have made him a premier player in the NHL. It takes a TON to become a true 1st line player.

One of the other big strengths I find about Larkin is that he showed solid ability to identify when and where to shoot the puck. But he certainly hasn't ever been known as a big time goal scorer. But he definitely has shown he can chip in his fair share of goals at the NHL level. He will never be a 40 goal scorer though.

Let's look at some guys like Connor and Boeser who also played in the NCAA. Both of these players led their NCAA clubs as freshmen in their +1 draft years. Larkin finished 2nd in team scoring in his +1 draft year. Obviously Boeser and Connor both destroyed Larkins point totals as well as led the way in their teams scoring. These two players have the potential to be elite scorers in the NHL. Will they? Who knows, but they have the skills that give them a chance to get there. Both players also put up better numbers in the USHL than Larkin. Obviously we won't even talk about Eichel who is a good example of what kind of stat line you need to put up to have a chance at being a franchise player in the NHL.

A big reason why Larkin didn't see much PP time outside of Detroit wanting Larkin to earn his stripes and play some pk, is that we weren't missing out on a lot from him on the PP. Larkin generates his offense on the rush with his speed. He doesn't have exceptional play-making abilities or goal-scoring abilities. He is just solid in these areas. If Larkin would have been such an offensive threat on the PP last year, he would have been there. The PP isn't much about scoring goals off the rush, it's about zone setup and play making skills. Larkin isn't going to get a good opportunity to generate off the rush on the PP because when teams are on the PK their defense is playing deep. No team is going to let Larkin blow by them in this situation. There isn't going to be that opportunity for Larkin to turn the puck the other way and catch a team off guard like there is at even strength. This is where Eichel becomes a decent comparison. Eichel is a player who can generate a lot of offense on the rush. Eichel isn't as fast as Larkin but is also an effortless skater who can navigate the the neutral zone with his head up and confidence with the puck. But Eichel also has top notch playmaking abilities that make him a huge asset on the PP. Eichel not only does a lot of zone entries on the PP but is also the QB of the offensive zone attack.

Larkin is likely a solid 2C at his peak. A 50-60 point guy with maybe some 65 point seasons or so who plays a strong two-way game. If the Wings stay on the current path they are on and Larkin is forced to become our 1C in a few years. There is going to be a lot of comments around here along the lines of "We will never win a cup with Larkin as our 1C." The reality of Larkins potential will be realized and people with these high expectations who are currently on the Larkin love bandwagon will hop off and onto the hating bandwagon.

That is the most REALISTIC hope we can have at Larkin given his skill-sets. Again, he doesn't have elite hands, he doesn't have elite play making ability, he doesn't have an elite shot. Not many players become legit 1C's in the NHL because of elite speed and solid skills across the board. We are talking elite here, like short list of the players in the NHL who are true 1st liners. It's very easy to look at these elite players and see that Larkin doesn't come close in most categories. Can Larkin exceed this? Sure. I wouldn't count anyone out from exceeding expectations. I would honestly chose Larkin as a good candidate to find ways to improve his skills enough to exceed expectations.

Now to compare Larkin with Toews (as I have seen quite a few do).... When Toews was younger coming into this league he had elite hands and walked through the middle of defenders. Toews has simplified his game and isn't quite as flashy as his younger self, but Toews has skills that Larkin simply does not. That's just one example, I'm already on my way to writing a book here so we will just use Toews to touch in one area.

I have seen so many Wings fans say that Larkin is better than Sam Bennet.... It's like none of these Wings fans have seen a game outside of the Wings. Sam Bennet has very reasonable potential to be a 1C in the NHL. Sam Bennet has every skill Larkin has and then 2x more minus that elite speed. Sam Bennet is the type of player that outside of the 1st overall pick has the skills to become a franchise player. Will he? I don't know. I do know that I would easily take Bennet over Larkin based on both current performance and future potential.

Wennberg came up in this post which is what I really wanted to lead into here... Wennbergs ability to protect the puck and play along the boards is very very good for a player his age. He shares a similarity with Zetterberg in that perspective. He can hold onto the puck under pressure and create time and space to make a play. Wennberg put up some very impressive stats last year, better pace than Larkin. Yes you can argue Wennberg is a year older and had NHL experience the prior season. But this is also Wennbergs second year playing NA hockey. How could someone chose Larkin over him easy? That's biased. Wennbergs stat line is trending exactly like a lot of elite players have (outside of Mcdavids, Eichels, etc). Who knows who will become better out of these two players. It would be ridiculous for a Wings fan to tell someone that Larkin is easily the better player. Wennberg also has a pretty open shot in Columbus to seal him up a top 6 role. I just think Larkin has become very overly hyped and Wings fans need to temper their expectations here. I know it's exciting to have a kid that young have a strong rookie year for the first time in forever, but let's just be realistic. It's very unlikely Larkin comes in next year and puts up 65 points like many seem to expect. Not many players in the league are hitting those kind of numbers anymore. The ones that do have elite skills or very favorable circumstances.

 

[Frk It]

I love Larkin but can't stand the level of expectations people have for this kid. Let's start this post off by noting that I have Larkin as my display picture.

One of the other big strengths I find about Larkin is that he showed solid ability to identify when and where to shoot the puck. But he certainly hasn't ever been known as a big time goal scorer. But he definitely has shown he can chip in his fair share of goals at the NHL level. He will never be a 40 goal scorer though.

The release on his shot looks awfully good to me. And being willing to shoot is very important to becoming a scorer. Just ask Nyquist and Tatar about that.

A big reason why Larkin didn't see much PP time outside of Detroit wanting Larkin to earn his stripes and play some pk, is that we weren't missing out on a lot from him on the PP. Larkin generates his offense on the rush with his speed. He doesn't have exceptional play-making abilities or goal-scoring abilities. He is just solid in these areas. If Larkin would have been such an offensive threat on the PP last year, he would have been there. The PP isn't much about scoring goals off the rush, it's about zone setup and play making skills. Larkin isn't going to get a good opportunity to generate off the rush on the PP because when teams are on the PK their defense is playing deep. No team is going to let Larkin blow by them in this situation. There isn't going to be that opportunity for Larkin to turn the puck the other way and catch a team off guard like there is at even strength. This is where Eichel becomes a decent comparison. Eichel is a player who can generate a lot of offense on the rush. Eichel isn't as fast as Larkin but is also an effortless skater who can navigate the the neutral zone with his head up and confidence with the puck. But Eichel also has top notch playmaking abilities that make him a huge asset on the PP. Eichel not only does a lot of zone entries on the PP but is also the QB of the offensive zone attack.

He played 2:02 on the PP a game... at 19 years old. Not sure why you are trying to make it out like isn't/wasn't good enough to be used on the PP, when that's not true.

Larkin is likely a solid 2C at his peak. A 50-60 point guy with maybe some 65 point seasons or so who plays a strong two-way game. If the Wings stay on the current path they are on and Larkin is forced to become our 1C in a few years. There is going to be a lot of comments around here along the lines of "We will never win a cup with Larkin as our 1C." The reality of Larkins potential will be realized and people with these high expectations who are currently on the Larkin love bandwagon will hop off and onto the hating bandwagon.

Well, he just turned 20. So let's see how he turns out. He is 6'1" and insanely fast. When he adds weight he'll be able to protect the puck better. That is a pretty nice combo of size, speed, and if he continues to get stronger he will be an absolute load on the puck.

He is not flashy, but he sees the ice very well. Tatar tries a lot of crap that doesn't work, and when it works you get a sweet goal. Larkin is just a north-south, no-nonsense smart player. I don't see anything that prevents him from becoming a 1st line center. And with his work ethic and how motivated he is, I really wouldn't be one to bet against him.

have seen so many Wings fans say that Larkin is better than Sam Bennet.... It's like none of these Wings fans have seen a game outside of the Wings. Sam Bennet has very reasonable potential to be a 1C in the NHL. Sam Bennet has every skill Larkin has and then 2x more minus that elite speed. Sam Bennet is the type of player that outside of the 1st overall pick has the skills to become a franchise player. Will he? I don't know. I do know that I would easily take Bennet over Larkin based on both current performance and future potential.

Yeah, well he's a top 5 pick. So he should become a better player. He's supposed to. The fact that I have seen some neutral fans say they would take Larkin is just a huge credit to Dylan and how he has developed so far. To even be in that conversation.

Wennberg came up in this post which is what I really wanted to lead into here... Wennbergs ability to protect the puck and play along the boards is very very good for a player his age. He shares a similarity with Zetterberg in that perspective. He can hold onto the puck under pressure and create time and space to make a play. Wennberg put up some very impressive stats last year, better pace than Larkin. Yes you can argue Wennberg is a year older and had NHL experience the prior season.

More like 2 years older. July of 96' vs Sept of '94.

 

[GoAwayDanCleary]

I think you're really underselling him.

Larkin has all of the tools to be an elite center in today's NHL. Everywhere he has gone he has exceeded expectations. NCAA, WJC, WC, and now the NHL as a teenager. I don't really think it's fair to put a cap on his ceiling until he gives us a reason to.

The kid dominated the first 40+ games of the season... you don't do that with just speed and work ethic. His hands aren't elite but his game isn't centered around them. His awareness is pretty off the charts for his age (his two goals against the Sens for example), his shot is fantastic, and he has the ability to make plays at high speeds like very few in this league.

If he becomes a 50 point two-way center I would be really disappointed. He has the potential to be so much more. We'll see whether he reaches it. He's the future of the franchise so I hope so.

 

[haulinbass]

He played 2:02 on the PP a game... at 19 years old. Not sure why you are trying to make it out like isn't/wasn't good enough to be used on the PP, when that's not true.

Well, he only scored 5 points on the PP. He did get more PP time than I thought. So you got me there a little bit. Obviously without putting a great detail of time into a meaningless post on the Internet my material isn't likely to be 100% perfect of flaws. I did put some solid information on the table for a person to consider though.

Yeah, well he's a top 5 pick. So he should become a better player. He's supposed to. The fact that I have seen some neutral fans say they would take Larkin is just a huge credit to Dylan and how he has developed so far. To even be in that conversation.

Of course he is suppose to and there is no sign that has changed. It's the fact that enough Red Wings fans beat Bennet in a poll on who becomes the better player. That's ridiculous. Why did this happen? Because of stats. That's it. Not because they Red Wing fans have seen enough of Bennet to judge him. If Bennet took every one of Larkins shifts in the same situation as Larkin had, and Larkin took all of Bennets. It could really easily be Larkin who right now. Let alone Larkin > Bennet.

MOD

I think you're really underselling him.

Larkin has all of the tools to be an elite center in today's NHL. Everywhere he has gone he has exceeded expectations. NCAA, WJC, WC, and now the NHL as a teenager. I don't really think it's fair to put a cap on his ceiling until he gives us a reason to.

The kid dominated the first 40+ games of the season... you don't do that with just speed and work ethic. His hands aren't elite but his game isn't centered around them. His awareness is pretty off the charts for his age (his two goals against the Sens for example), his shot is fantastic, and he has the ability to make plays at high speeds like very few in this league.

If he becomes a 50 point two-way center I would be really disappointed. He has the potential to be so much more. We'll see whether he reaches it. He's the future of the franchise so I hope so.

So you think he can be as good as Kopitar, Toews, Getzlaf, Crosby, O'Reilly, Bergeron, Giroux, Seguin, McDavid, Malkin, Tavares, Backstrom, Johanson, Barkov.

Because those are most of the elite centers in the NHL. That's 14 players right there, enough number 1 centers for almost half the NHL. Then we have a list of a few good 1st line centers and then a list of not so great 1st line centers.. Then we dip into 2nd line C's.

The few good centers who would be next on this list is mostly made up of players who were elite centers in their prime. Thornton, Spezza, Zetterberg, Sedins etc. A few players like Monohan who are certainly good 1C but not elite. See how talented this list is? We can quickly come up with 30 very quality names which is one center for each team in the league. I don't think an elite center in the NHL can be past 30. If your gonna be elite or a true number 1 then you need to be one of the 30 best in a 30 team league. I would personally argue the elite cutoff is somewhere around 15 players. But that's an opinion people could all see differently.

Where do you think Larkin falls in here? He certainly hasn't shown the skills to have any likely chance to land somewhere in that 14 player mix I mentioned.

MOD

 

[lomekian]

I'm almost with Haulinbass on this one. Almost. I think Dylark will spend most of his peak career as a 60-70 point guy who will a borderline 1C. Of course as with all things, this depends on line-mates, chemistry etc. With a real smart playmaker and a scorer with size he could exceed this, but he's certainly not going to be Yzerman or Federov or Dats 2.0. That's not to say he isn't likely to have a long and successful career, as he is fast, smart and gutsy, but he just doesn't have a comparative level of raw skill with most true long-term 1C's. I do think he will out-perform his skillset, but I don't see him ever becoming a guy that can make everyone around him better like Yzerman or just blow teams away like Feds, or be dominant at both ends like Dats.

That's not to do him down. I suspect he will be DRW's 1st line center for a good while, but like a better version of what Stephen Weiss or Legwand at their absolute peaks, I think he's unlikely to be a top 10 center in the NHL. That said, as has been written, he does have many of the qualities to surpass his current skill-based career projection, as the kid learns fast fast fast.

Down the line a line of him, AA and Mantha could be excellent, particularly as Mantha is such an underrated passer.

 

[haulinbass]

I do think he will out-perform his skillset

This.

Thats what could give him a shot to hit the numbers you are suggesting, which is NOT out of the question.

Larkin is a guy who is really good at making the most of his abilities. Which by no means are bad, just not exactly elite.

 

[Flowah]

I think Dylark will spend most of his peak career as a 60-70 point guy who will a borderline 1C

That's what I see. A speedy, solid two-way center that's a bit under PPG.

So... ~Toews. Maybe Toews-Lite

 

[Claypool]

So you think he can be as good as Kopitar, Toews, Getzlaf, Crosby, O'Reilly, Bergeron, Giroux, Seguin, McDavid, Malkin, Tavares, Backstrom, Johanson, Barkov.

I like Barkov, but what has he done to be considered among the best center's in the league? Same with O'Reilly. Nice player but not even in the same category as some of those other guys you mention. Giroux is still a great player but I wouldn't consider him elite anymore. Johnson needs to have a huge rebound year, too, before putting him in that pantheon of players. Same with Getzlaf.