Speculation: Duration of the rebuild

[squashmaple]

I found his piece interesting. The only thing is I don't know the right way to rebuild besides collecting picks and prospects. Arace is talking about development. I'm sure many of us remember the Jackets were criticized for rushing Klesla, Brule, Brassard and many others before they were ready. Often times we heard how Detroit kept their prospects in the AHL until they were almost overripe and how the CBJ would be wise to learn from that.
Now Arace is criticizing because the Jackets are keeping Johnson in the AHL and sending Jiricek up and down.

I remember Arace was front and center criticizing the Jackets for rushing those guys back then.
What's the right way?

It's also interesting to me that we're the only fanbase that has this conversation, built on a premise from two or three GMs ago. I spend a lot of time on other teams' boards and subreddits, reading. No one else frets about rushing prospects and considers a something that was true in 2005 to be cast in stone. Under Jarmo, who is the only relevant GM for Columbus since he's been here for ten years, the only prospect you can truly make the argument for being rushed was Sillinger. Bemstrom and Foudy were probably mishandled during the Covid shutdowns, but they're hardly alone across the league in that respect.

I went through drafts from 2014 on (since he was hired right before the 2013 draft I don't really consider it to be his starting point since his scouts weren't in place for a year to plan) the other day for a conversation on capfriendly, and:

2014 - Terrible draft. Milano first rounder, D+1 in juniors, D+2 in AHL, 3 games with CBJ at end of season. Not rushed. Only other draftee to make NHL is Elvis who spent nearly five years in Europe.

2015 - Werenski D+1 NCAA, was not overwhelmed as NHL regular in D+2; Carlsson spend all of D+1 and D+2 in Sweden before getting a handful of games in AHL and NHL after Swedish season ended in D+2; no other picks were ever top prospects and developed on schedule (Kolesar, Stenlund, Nutivaara, Gavrikov)
**special note: Provorov drafted one pick before Werenski, spent D+1 in the WHL, did not miss a single game in his first three NHL seasons and was not overwhelmed, not rushed by Philadelphia

2016 - Dubois spent D+1 in juniors, was 1C in NHL before Christmas in D+2 year on merit; second rounder Peeke spent three full seasons at Notre Dame before splitting his D+4 season between Cleveland and Columbus; rest of draft irrelevant
**special note: Jake Bean was drafted first round this year and was not rushed by the Hurricanes, spending his D+1, D+2, and D+3 in the WHL and then the next two seasons after that in the AHL

2017 - First pick was Texier in second round and he played two full seasons in Liiga before making debut in NHL playoffs in 2019, was not rushed; Second pick Tarasov who is a capable if often injured backup who spent three full seasons in Russia before coming to NA in the Covid season; Bemstrom who I will absolutely agree was mishandled, but even he spent three full seasons in Sweden before coming to NA

2018 - Foudy spends D+1 and D+2 in junior and then the world ended so his development was interrupted and perhaps mishandled; Marchenko spent FIVE full seasons in Russia before coming over
**special note: Boqvist was drafted this year and absolutely rushed... but not by us!

2019 - Only three late draft picks and only one of note was never a top prospect even as he makes noise after finally coming over from Russia this season: Voronkov

2020 - Chinakhov was an overager when drafted and even with Covid still got a full KHL season before coming over and has spent a great deal of time in Cleveland; no other draftees of note

2021 - KJ spent D+1 in NCAA, had a respectable rookie season in the NHL in D+2, and is now properly in the AHL after slumping to start the year; Sillinger was 100% no-doubt-about-it rushed; Ceuelemans is in AHL where he should be; Svozil is in AHL where he should be; no other top prospects although some intriguing late picks who are also all exactly where they should be between junior, AHL, and NCAA

2022 - Jiricek spent d+1 in AHL and earned his NHL spot this season, is not overwhelmed but probably should be in the AHL to work on skating; Mateychuk has spent d+1 and d+2 in juniors where he belongs; LDDB and Dumais are where they belong

2023 - I guess Fantilli should have gone back to Michigan since we're obviously rushing him; Brindley is top three in NCAA goal scoring; everyone else is where they should be

 

[MoeBartoli]

Duration of Rebuild? I’m changing my vote to perpetuity.

 

[Cheddarcheese]

It's also interesting to me that we're the only fanbase that has this conversation, built on a premise from two or three GMs ago. I spend a lot of time on other teams' boards and subreddits, reading. No one else frets about rushing prospects and considers a something that was true in 2005 to be cast in stone. Under Jarmo, who is the only relevant GM for Columbus since he's been here for ten years, the only prospect you can truly make the argument for being rushed was Sillinger. Bemstrom and Foudy were probably mishandled during the Covid shutdowns, but they're hardly alone across the league in that respect.

I went through drafts from 2014 on (since he was hired right before the 2013 draft I don't really consider it to be his starting point since his scouts weren't in place for a year to plan) the other day for a conversation on capfriendly, and:

2014 - Terrible draft. Milano first rounder, D+1 in juniors, D+2 in AHL, 3 games with CBJ at end of season. Not rushed. Only other draftee to make NHL is Elvis who spent nearly five years in Europe.

2015 - Werenski D+1 NCAA, was not overwhelmed as NHL regular in D+2; Carlsson spend all of D+1 and D+2 in Sweden before getting a handful of games in AHL and NHL after Swedish season ended in D+2; no other picks were ever top prospects and developed on schedule (Kolesar, Stenlund, Nutivaara, Gavrikov)
**special note: Provorov drafted one pick before Werenski, spent D+1 in the WHL, did not miss a single game in his first three NHL seasons and was not overwhelmed, not rushed by Philadelphia

2016 - Dubois spent D+1 in juniors, was 1C in NHL before Christmas in D+2 year on merit; second rounder Peeke spent three full seasons at Notre Dame before splitting his D+4 season between Cleveland and Columbus; rest of draft irrelevant
**special note: Jake Bean was drafted first round this year and was not rushed by the Hurricanes, spending his D+1, D+2, and D+3 in the WHL and then the next two seasons after that in the AHL

2017 - First pick was Texier in second round and he played two full seasons in Liiga before making debut in NHL playoffs in 2019, was not rushed; Second pick Tarasov who is a capable if often injured backup who spent three full seasons in Russia before coming to NA in the Covid season; Bemstrom who I will absolutely agree was mishandled, but even he spent three full seasons in Sweden before coming to NA

2018 - Foudy spends D+1 and D+2 in junior and then the world ended so his development was interrupted and perhaps mishandled; Marchenko spent FIVE full seasons in Russia before coming over
**special note: Boqvist was drafted this year and absolutely rushed... but not by us!

2019 - Only three late draft picks and only one of note was never a top prospect even as he makes noise after finally coming over from Russia this season: Voronkov

2020 - Chinakhov was an overager when drafted and even with Covid still got a full KHL season before coming over and has spent a great deal of time in Cleveland; no other draftees of note

2021 - KJ spent D+1 in NCAA, had a respectable rookie season in the NHL in D+2, and is now properly in the AHL after slumping to start the year; Sillinger was 100% no-doubt-about-it rushed; Ceuelemans is in AHL where he should be; Svozil is in AHL where he should be; no other top prospects although some intriguing late picks who are also all exactly where they should be between junior, AHL, and NCAA

2022 - Jiricek spent d+1 in AHL and earned his NHL spot this season, is not overwhelmed but probably should be in the AHL to work on skating; Mateychuk has spent d+1 and d+2 in juniors where he belongs; LDDB and Dumais are where they belong

2023 - I guess Fantilli should have gone back to Michigan since we're obviously rushing him; Brindley is top three in NCAA goal scoring; everyone else is where they should be

i agree with your breakdown! i dont know if Michigan does Fantilli well. i think hes better off playing and working out without worrying about school/girls/booze/drugs

 

[TaketheCannoli]

It's also interesting to me that we're the only fanbase that has this conversation, built on a premise from two or three GMs ago. I spend a lot of time on other teams' boards and subreddits, reading. No one else frets about rushing prospects and considers a something that was true in 2005 to be cast in stone. Under Jarmo, who is the only relevant GM for Columbus since he's been here for ten years, the only prospect you can truly make the argument for being rushed was Sillinger. Bemstrom and Foudy were probably mishandled during the Covid shutdowns, but they're hardly alone across the league in that respect.

I went through drafts from 2014 on (since he was hired right before the 2013 draft I don't really consider it to be his starting point since his scouts weren't in place for a year to plan) the other day for a conversation on capfriendly, and:

2014 - Terrible draft. Milano first rounder, D+1 in juniors, D+2 in AHL, 3 games with CBJ at end of season. Not rushed. Only other draftee to make NHL is Elvis who spent nearly five years in Europe.

2015 - Werenski D+1 NCAA, was not overwhelmed as NHL regular in D+2; Carlsson spend all of D+1 and D+2 in Sweden before getting a handful of games in AHL and NHL after Swedish season ended in D+2; no other picks were ever top prospects and developed on schedule (Kolesar, Stenlund, Nutivaara, Gavrikov)
**special note: Provorov drafted one pick before Werenski, spent D+1 in the WHL, did not miss a single game in his first three NHL seasons and was not overwhelmed, not rushed by Philadelphia

2016 - Dubois spent D+1 in juniors, was 1C in NHL before Christmas in D+2 year on merit; second rounder Peeke spent three full seasons at Notre Dame before splitting his D+4 season between Cleveland and Columbus; rest of draft irrelevant
**special note: Jake Bean was drafted first round this year and was not rushed by the Hurricanes, spending his D+1, D+2, and D+3 in the WHL and then the next two seasons after that in the AHL

2017 - First pick was Texier in second round and he played two full seasons in Liiga before making debut in NHL playoffs in 2019, was not rushed; Second pick Tarasov who is a capable if often injured backup who spent three full seasons in Russia before coming to NA in the Covid season; Bemstrom who I will absolutely agree was mishandled, but even he spent three full seasons in Sweden before coming to NA

2018 - Foudy spends D+1 and D+2 in junior and then the world ended so his development was interrupted and perhaps mishandled; Marchenko spent FIVE full seasons in Russia before coming over
**special note: Boqvist was drafted this year and absolutely rushed... but not by us!

2019 - Only three late draft picks and only one of note was never a top prospect even as he makes noise after finally coming over from Russia this season: Voronkov

2020 - Chinakhov was an overager when drafted and even with Covid still got a full KHL season before coming over and has spent a great deal of time in Cleveland; no other draftees of note

2021 - KJ spent D+1 in NCAA, had a respectable rookie season in the NHL in D+2, and is now properly in the AHL after slumping to start the year; Sillinger was 100% no-doubt-about-it rushed; Ceuelemans is in AHL where he should be; Svozil is in AHL where he should be; no other top prospects although some intriguing late picks who are also all exactly where they should be between junior, AHL, and NCAA

2022 - Jiricek spent d+1 in AHL and earned his NHL spot this season, is not overwhelmed but probably should be in the AHL to work on skating; Mateychuk has spent d+1 and d+2 in juniors where he belongs; LDDB and Dumais are where they belong

2023 - I guess Fantilli should have gone back to Michigan since we're obviously rushing him; Brindley is top three in NCAA goal scoring; everyone else is where they should be

It's not about what was said 15 years ago, it's Arace's inconsistency. I feel he is just criticizing for the sake of clicks. There is a lot to criticize in this franchise. Is Arace concentrating on the right things?

 

[majormajor]

It's also interesting to me that we're the only fanbase that has this conversation, built on a premise from two or three GMs ago. I spend a lot of time on other teams' boards and subreddits, reading. No one else frets about rushing prospects and considers a something that was true in 2005 to be cast in stone. Under Jarmo, who is the only relevant GM for Columbus since he's been here for ten years, the only prospect you can truly make the argument for being rushed was Sillinger. Bemstrom and Foudy were probably mishandled during the Covid shutdowns, but they're hardly alone across the league in that respect.

I think the back to 2005 thing has more to do with Arace not having paid much attention to the team since the Hitchcock era. He's occasionally correct but broadly doesn't seem well informed on anything in the last decade, he gets paid largely for recycling stale thoughts from long long ago. Some of our posters also seem much more informed about the Maclean or Howson eras but couldn't tell you much about recent Jackets teams.

Leaving that aside there are a lot of young players around the league that seem to be rushed - the Hawks certainly did it with Boqvist and Dach. The Habs are doing it with Slaf right now. Folks are talking about it.

 

[squashmaple]

I think the back to 2005 thing has more to do with Arace not having paid much attention to the team since the Hitchcock era. He's occasionally correct but broadly doesn't seem well informed on anything in the last decade, he gets paid largely for recycling stale thoughts from long long ago. Some of our posters also seem much more informed about the Maclean or Howson eras but couldn't tell you much about recent Jackets teams.

Leaving that aside there are a lot of young players around the league that seem to be rushed - the Hawks certainly did it with Boqvist and Dach. The Habs are doing it with Slaf right now. Folks are talking about it.

I specifically mean the “classic Jackets, always rushing their prospects” thing. Which sure, you could say about Howson and MacLean. But how the organization handled Gilbert Brulé has nothing to do with Jarmo or the current organization. No one says “classic Blackhawks, rushing their prospects.” Because they have other things to talk about, rather than constantly relitigating the same three topics. We have nothing else because we have no history, no meaningful wins, and currently no future.

 

[koteka]

the only prospect you can truly make the argument for being rushed was Sillinger.

Sillinger was obviously rushed.

Last year everyone said KJ needs to focus on getting stronger and learning to play center. So they played him as a wing in in the NHL. This year he still needs to get stronger and learn to play center. He is in the AHL now, but for how long.

Jericek is being rushed. He should be in Cleveland working on defense.

The argument about rushing guys is really only relevant when they are high draft picks and have enough skill that they can play in the NHL at a young age and not look out of place. But instead of just being a guy in the NHL they should be in a lower league working on their game. I don’t want Jiricek to be a mediocre second pair right D. I hope he can become a solid top pair right D that you can count on to close out games.

 

[MoeBartoli]

I’ve changed my thoughts on the rebuild duration, previously thinking we’d be completing for a playoff spot this year and making it next year.

I now believe we are at least two more years from competing for a spot. Too many changes lie ahead. The front office will be overhauled which could well mean a new GM picks a new coach. I suspect Laine will be gone and Provorov won’t be reupped. Whether KJ is here and if Chinakov develops are questions and whether Sillinger further develops is a bigger question.

This roster will have even more young guys filling spots - Mateychuk, Dumais, Svozil - all of whom we view optimistically but are unproven.

Many questions remain regarding this franchise and no immediate answers are clear.

 

[Cowumbus]

Are we f***ed?

The defense has not gotten better after acquiring Severson and Provorov.
We traded a 1st & 2nd for Provorov, and are already considering moving him again. Even if we get a 1st & 2nd back in a trade, those pieces are a year further away than the guys we would have drafted last season.
Laine has not been able to stay healthy, is hot/cold and is now taking time away from the team. Trade value is at an all time low.
Elvis has asked for a different situation.
Jiricek is unhappy with the current situation.
Chinakhov asked for a trade at one point.
Voronkov considered going back to Russia.
We don’t really have any valuable trade assets to move at the TDL.
Gaudreau looks completely different, pacing for 52 points (the worst of his career) making 9.8 for 5 more years.
Our coaching isn’t very good at all, and it’s gonna be hard to change it when we are actively paying 2 guys to not coach here!
PP has never gotten better…

What did this season accomplish? Talk me off the ledge. Not sure how this dumpster fire turns around anytime soon.

For instance, we could win the lottery draft Celebrini and trade pieces for another top 4 D and I still don’t think they are a very good team for 2-3 years.

 

[koteka]

Are we f***ed?

The defense has not gotten better after acquiring Severson and Provorov.
We traded a 1st & 2nd for Provorov, and are already considering moving him again. Even if we get a 1st & 2nd back in a trade, those pieces are a year further away than the guys we would have drafted last season.
Laine has not been able to stay healthy, is hot/cold and is now taking time away from the team. Trade value is at an all time low.
Elvis has asked for a different situation.
Jiricek is unhappy with the current situation.
Chinakhov asked for a trade at one point.
Voronkov considered going back to Russia.
We don’t really have any valuable trade assets to move at the TDL.
Gaudreau looks completely different, pacing for 52 points (the worst of his career) making 9.8 for 5 more years.

What did this season accomplish? Talk me off the ledge. Not sure how this dumpster fire turns around anytime soon.

For instance, we could win the lottery draft Celebrini and trade pieces for another top 4 D and I still don’t think they are a very good team for 2-3 years.

We don’t have a goalie. You can add a mediocre UFA goalie and hope it pans out.

We don’t have a 1C. We have Fantilli who looks like he could become one, but he isn’t there yet. Is he 1, 2, or 3 years away?

Our defense is just pain awful. It won’t be fixed quickly.

I can’t talk you off the ledge. Sorry.

 

[Cowumbus]

We don’t have a goalie. You can add a mediocre UFA goalies and hope it pans out.

We don’t have a 1C. We have Fantilli who looks like he could become one, but he isn’t there yet.

Our defense is just plane awful. It won’t be fixed quickly.

I can’t talk you off the ledge. Sorry.

How many more “meaningless” seasons? 2-3?

 

[EspenK]

The only hope is to get rid of JD & Jarmo and hire competent execs who are not emotionally attached to the players.
Let them cull the deadwood and guys who just don't fit.
Assemble an experienced coaching staff.
Improve pro scouting so as not to wind up with guys and contracts like Gaudreau, Severson & Provorov.
Pray. Hope.

I do get the sense that there are pieces who can form a solid core over the next 2-3 years. If they could just learn how to defend 3rd period leads they would be a hell of a better team even this season.

Patience and a bit of luck my long suffering fellow fans.

 

[koteka]

How many more “meaningless” seasons? 2-3?

You know the people who have been saying “We can’t do X or we’ll turn into the Buffalo Sabres.” Like “We can’t fire Jarmo or we’ll turn into the Buffalo Sabres” or “We can’t trade Boone or we’ll turn into the Buffalo Sabres.” Well, I expect other teams’ fans will start saying “We can’t do X or we’ll turn into the Columbus Blue Jackets.”

 

[majormajor]

Are we f***ed?

The defense has not gotten better after acquiring Severson and Provorov.
We traded a 1st & 2nd for Provorov, and are already considering moving him again. Even if we get a 1st & 2nd back in a trade, those pieces are a year further away than the guys we would have drafted last season.
Laine has not been able to stay healthy, is hot/cold and is now taking time away from the team. Trade value is at an all time low.
Elvis has asked for a different situation.
Jiricek is unhappy with the current situation.
Chinakhov asked for a trade at one point.
Voronkov considered going back to Russia.
We don’t really have any valuable trade assets to move at the TDL.
Gaudreau looks completely different, pacing for 52 points (the worst of his career) making 9.8 for 5 more years.
Our coaching isn’t very good at all, and it’s gonna be hard to change it when we are actively paying 2 guys to not coach here!
PP has never gotten better…

What did this season accomplish? Talk me off the ledge. Not sure how this dumpster fire turns around anytime soon.

For instance, we could win the lottery draft Celebrini and trade pieces for another top 4 D and I still don’t think they are a very good team for 2-3 years.

The team already looks much different than it did months ago. We used to fail in third periods because we were in our turtle shell all the time, now it looks more like a typical young club that loses composure. They'll develop better composure and more cohesion in those situations. We have big swings like a junior team, for obvious reasons. I expect the team to continue to evolve.

Adam Fantilli leads the team in 5v5 points, and is the most skilled player we've ever had. He makes something out of nothing. We're insanely lucky to have him. I don't think he's great right now but he's going to become a monster.

My expectations going into the year for Voronkov, Chinakhov, and Marchenko have been absolutely blown away. Whatever issues they had earlier in the year, they seem to have gotten past.

On defense it's not as pretty. Jiricek at least should have a good long time in Cleveland (hopefully not in the NHL until next Fall) to focus on what he needs to focus on for long term development. He should be able to reset his focus. I'll say I really didn't have another D in our pool that I thought would become a top pair guy but Mateychuk's development this year has been wild to me. He showed up dramatically quicker and stronger, with a much better shot. I think he'll be a top pair guy.

We don't have a good NHL goaltending situation right now but between Ivanov, Greaves, and Tarasov, we have a lot of potential. Goaltending is always subject to change, so if you're going to have an organizational weakness, let it be there. As they say about the weather in New England, if you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes.