Speculation: Duration of the rebuild

[koteka]

Many appear to be surprisingly low on him nowadays. I see untapped potential in there, he can be a lot more than he has been when he gets stronger and a little more comfortable handling the puck. Hopefully Babs' presence won't be detrimental for his confidence.

Don’t get me wrong. I like Chinakhov. I am probably higher on him than most. But I think drafting him wasn’t part of some overall plan to build a team a certain way, it was more like a reaction to thinking they found a severely underrated player that they wanted to get the credit for discovering.

But if you search and scout for a whole year and most of bigger defensemen in a draft class don't seem to have a lot of NHL upside, what should you do? Just draft them regardless? Even though you realize that taking multiple potential new makars instead in a couple of drafts increases your chances of finding one at some point?

I don’t think our defense has been one Makar away from being good. We’d all love a Makar, of course. I think the front office is seriously under appreciating the role of a good defensive guy. Maybe they didn’t like guys like Bischel or maybe they had guys they liked but were surprised that they were able to draft prospects like Del Bel Belluz or Dumais or Malatesta that they had rated higher. But I think at some point in the process you would think “we probably should have a big defense oriented guy in the pipeline just in case we hit on the little defensive guys and we are in need a good partner for them that can stay back”.

 

[Cowumbus]

I don’t think our defense has been one Makar away from being good. We’d all love a Makar, of course. I think the front office is seriously under appreciating the role of a good defensive guy. Maybe they didn’t like guys like Bischel or maybe they had guys they liked but were surprised that they were able to draft prospects like Del Bel Belluz or Dumais or Malatesta that they had rated higher. But I think at some point in the process you would think “we probably should have a big defense oriented guy in the pipeline just in case we hit on the little defensive guys and we are in need a good partner for them that can stay back”.

I think the defense D is what they expected Richard to be.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

Don’t get me wrong. I like Chinakhov. I am probably higher on him than most. But I think drafting him wasn’t part of some overall plan to build a team a certain way, it was more like a reaction to thinking they found a severely underrated player that they wanted to get the credit for discovering.


I don’t think our defense has been one Makar away from being good. We’d all love a Makar, of course. I think the front office is seriously under appreciating the role of a good defensive guy. Maybe they didn’t like guys like Bischel or maybe they had guys they liked but were surprised that they were able to draft prospects like Del Bel Belluz or Dumais or Malatesta that they had rated higher. But I think at some point in the process you would think “we probably should have a big defense oriented guy in the pipeline just in case we hit on the little defensive guys and we are in need a good partner for them that can stay back”.

BPA

 

[koteka]

BPA

At some point BPA has to give way to “we are great at spotting wing talent and we uncover good wings and trade for good wings and sign good wings in free agency, but at some point we need to realize we have too many damn wings, so let’s draft anything but a wing even if a wing is BPA”.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

At some point BPA has to give way to “we are great at spotting wing talent and we uncover good wings and trade for good wings and sign good wings in free agency, but at some point we need to realize we have too many damn wings, so let’s draft anything but a wing even if a wing is BPA”.

That is gonna be anathema to a bunch of posters.

 

[koteka]

That is gonna be anathema to a bunch of posters.

So?

If we draft BPA at 34 and that is a wing, I am totally cool with that. You just don’t draft another wing at 66. And if for some reason you happen to draft wings at 34 and 66, you sure as hell stop drafting wings at that point. I’d love for a guy like But to fall to 34. But I would be drafting goalie, center, or D with the rest of the draft. Or, if I thought I kept finding great wings, I’d be trading guys like Malatesta or Dumais or other wings for help at other positions.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

So?

I mean, I guess it’s just a thing that I was thinking about based on the discussion?

 

[koteka]

I mean, I guess it’s just a thing that I was thinking about based on the discussion?

Wouldn’t be the first time in my life I said or wrote something that a lot of people disagreed with.

 

[ThisIsMyAlibi]

Should’ve been another year. But it’s done now.

 

[EspenK]

So?

If we draft BPA at 34 and that is a wing, I am totally cool with that. You just don’t draft another wing at 66. And if for some reason you happen to draft wings at 34 and 66, you sure as hell stop drafting wings at that point. I’d love for a guy like But to fall to 34. But I would be drafting goalie, center, or D with the rest of the draft. Or, if I thought I kept finding great wings, I’d be trading guys like Malatesta or Dumais or other wings for help at other positions.

I agree except that I'd prefer taking another C at 34 if it is close between a W and a C

 

[tunnelvision]

I don’t think our defense has been one Makar away from being good. We’d all love a Makar, of course. I think the front office is seriously under appreciating the role of a good defensive guy. Maybe they didn’t like guys like Bischel or maybe they had guys they liked but were surprised that they were able to draft prospects like Del Bel Belluz or Dumais or Malatesta that they had rated higher. But I think at some point in the process you would think “we probably should have a big defense oriented guy in the pipeline just in case we hit on the little defensive guys and we are in need a good partner for them that can stay back”.

Exclusively drafting and stockpiling potential future Makars with the hope that they all will play in top-6 for your SC contender is obviously not a smart strategy. That's not what I ultimately meant by saying players with biggest NHL-upside are more likely going to drafted over 6'6 AHL-bound turnover machines who take dumb penalties and can't skate.

It's about getting the best value out of each pick. You don't have to hold on to every prospect you've drafted. DBB, Dumais and Malatesta among more valuable guys could be attached to a trade package later that would land a legitimate NHL-ready >6'3 shut-down D in CBJ. Just because it hasn't happened yet doesn't imply it won't happen. I'd love to see an Edvinsson type D added on the left side in the coming years.

I agree that it doesn't always seem as the Jackets really appreciate quality defensive dmen these days, but I wouldn't argue that they aren't even trying to acknowledge the lack of size and shut-down ability on defense. Outlook for the Jackets defense in the next 3 years could be something like this:

23-24

Werenski - Severson
Provorov - Boqvist/Peeke
Bean/Boqvist/Blankenburg - Gudbranson

Jiricek and Svozil play most of the season in Cleveland. Boqvist and/or Peeke gets traded by July 2024. Bean and Blankenburg will not be re-signed. Gudbranson will be bought out in summer of 2024.

24-25

Werenski - Jiricek
Provorov - Severson
Svozil - Peeke/Ceulemans/NDKA*
(*NDKA=new D koteka approves)

Mateychuk is in Cleveland. Provorov will walk into FA after the season. Peeke will be traded. Assets will be used to upgrade bottom pairing.

25-26

Werenski - Jiricek
Svozil - Severson/NDKA2
Mateychuk/NDKA1 - Severson/NDKA2

Jiricek and Svozil are bonafide two-way defensemen that have established their spots in top-4 as 1RD and 2LD at this point. Mateychuk is defensively still a bit immature but will be fighting for the 3LD spot in camp because of his special puckmoving ability. Another NDKA will be added to the RD mix before the season as Severson has started declining or can't compete anymore against better 2RD candidates.

....

^^Is that a good plan or not in your opinion?

 

[Xoggz22]

I think the defense D is what they expected Richard to be.

Richard and Markarov are both in that mold. I think they have tried to find more balanced defensemen that can skate with a little size that aren't solely one thing or another. Boqvist is an anomaly in my opinion. I think they players drafted have been considered 2-way guys recently - or at least have the ability (Ceulemans, Mateychuk, Svozil, Jiricek, Richard, Makarov... all to a different degree should be able to play all three zones with some better than others).

 

[cbjthrowaway]

I think the defense D is what they expected Richard to be.

given that he was a fourth round pick i think 'hoped' would be more appropriate here than 'expected' tbf

 

[majormajor]

Exclusively drafting and stockpiling potential future Makars with the hope that they all will play in top-6 for your SC contender is obviously not a smart strategy. That's not what I ultimately meant by saying players with biggest NHL-upside are more likely going to drafted over 6'6 AHL-bound turnover machines who take dumb penalties and can't skate.

It's about getting the best value out of each pick. You don't have to hold on to every prospect you've drafted. DBB, Dumais and Malatesta among more valuable guys could be attached to a trade package later that would land a legitimate NHL-ready >6'3 shut-down D in CBJ. Just because it hasn't happened yet doesn't imply it won't happen. I'd love to see an Edvinsson type D added on the left side in the coming years.

I agree that it doesn't always seem as the Jackets really appreciate quality defensive dmen these days, but I wouldn't argue that they aren't even trying to acknowledge the lack of size and shut-down ability on defense. Outlook for the Jackets defense in the next 3 years could be something like this:

23-24

Werenski - Severson
Provorov - Boqvist/Peeke
Bean/Boqvist/Blankenburg - Gudbranson

Jiricek and Svozil play most of the season in Cleveland. Boqvist and/or Peeke gets traded by July 2024. Bean and Blankenburg will not be re-signed. Gudbranson will be bought out in summer of 2024.

24-25

Werenski - Jiricek
Provorov - Severson
Svozil - Peeke/Ceulemans/NDKA*
(*NDKA=new D koteka approves)

Mateychuk is in Cleveland. Provorov will walk into FA after the season. Peeke will be traded. Assets will be used to upgrade bottom pairing.

25-26

Werenski - Jiricek
Svozil - Severson/NDKA2
Mateychuk/NDKA1 - Severson/NDKA2

Jiricek and Svozil are bonafide two-way defensemen that have established their spots in top-4 as 1RD and 2LD at this point. Mateychuk is defensively still a bit immature but will be fighting for the 3LD spot in camp because of his special puckmoving ability. Another NDKA will be added to the RD mix before the season as Severson has started declining or can't compete anymore against better 2RD candidates.

....

^^Is that a good plan or not in your opinion?

This is more or less how I see it evolving. It's going to be more fun as our top prospects join the D core knowing that they're not going to be rushed. Svozil might be a very good player.

I'm less worried about Severson falling off around 2025-26. He's a smooth skater, not overly physical, and I figure he'll be able to play second pair level for a few years beyond that. Though of course with that deal we'll be "paying for it" in the end.

 

[koteka]

25-26

Werenski - Jiricek
Svozil - Severson/NDKA2
Mateychuk/NDKA1 - Severson/NDKA2

....

^^Is that a good plan or not in your opinion?

I still don’t see us shutting down another team at the end of the game when we need to hold onto a one goal lead. I don’t see the toughness needed when you are in a grind-it-out kind of 7 game playoff series. I don’t see a defense good enough to beat the emerging teams in the East (Buffalo, NJ) that are ahead of us in the rebuild and look like they are on the right track. I see maybe a puck moving team that is fun to watch, but not built for deep playoff runs. I want a Cup.

 

[tunnelvision]

I still don’t see us shutting down another team at the end of the game when we need to hold onto a one goal lead. I don’t see the toughness needed when you are in a grind-it-out kind of 7 game playoff series. I don’t see a defense good enough to beat the emerging teams in the East (Buffalo, NJ) that are ahead of us in the rebuild and look like they are on the right track. I see maybe a puck moving team that is fun to watch, but not built for deep playoff runs. I want a Cup.

Top-6 guys in some of recent year's cup winners:

Penguins 2017

6'1 Cole
5'11 Daley
6'4 Dumoulin
6'3 Hainsey
6'2 Schultz
6'2 Maatta

Capitals 2018

6'3 Carlson
6'0 Kempny
6'0 Niskanen
5'11 Orlov
6'2 Orpik
5'11 Djoos

Avalanche 2022

5'11 Makar
6'4 E Johnson
6'1 J Johnson
6'3 Manson
6'1 Byram
6'1 Toews

...versus that future Jackets defense:

6'2 Werenski
6'3 Jiricek
6'2 Severson
6'0 Svozil
6'6 NDKA
6'4 NDKA
5'11 Mateychuk

which of these Jackets D don't have the potential to develop sufficient shut-down abilities and the toughness to grind it out that guys like Orlov, Niskanen, Toews, Makar or Daley had? I think most of them were trusted by coaches to protect a lead in critical moments.

 

[BB88]

I still don’t see us shutting down another team at the end of the game when we need to hold onto a one goal lead. I don’t see the toughness needed when you are in a grind-it-out kind of 7 game playoff series. I don’t see a defense good enough to beat the emerging teams in the East (Buffalo, NJ) that are ahead of us in the rebuild and look like they are on the right track. I see maybe a puck moving team that is fun to watch, but not built for deep playoff runs. I want a Cup.

There’s more than just pure defense for that.

Team defense/coaching play a massive part in it as well.

Edit,
Why I also want them to draft Carlsson, Florida has an abysmal Dcore(M.Staal in the top4) and Barkov plays a massive role in covering for their blueline defensively

 

[Xoggz22]

given that he was a fourth round pick i think 'hoped' would be more appropriate here than 'expected' tbf

Richard is still thought of very highly by CBJ brass. He's been mentioned without prompting, along with Makarov, as highly regarded D prospects.

 

[koteka]

6'2 Werenski
6'3 Jiricek
6'2 Severson
6'0 Svozil
6'6 NDKA
6'4 NDKA
5'11 Mateychuk

My fear is we end up with 5’11 NDKA and 6’0” NDKA and our big guys are our highly paid guy with a history of shoulder injuries and our presumably eventually highly paid guy who has had a knee injury. If you guarantee me a defensive 6’6” guy will be in the future mix, I’d feel a lot better about everything.

 

[koteka]

I think the defense D is what they expected Richard to be.

Every site seems to list him at 6’2” and in the 170-175 range. Is he bigger than that now? Providence says 6’2“ and 171 lbs. Does he need some time with Kevin Collins?

 

[tunnelvision]

My fear is we end up with 5’11 NDKA and 6’0” NDKA and our big guys are our highly paid guy with a history of shoulder injuries and our presumably eventually highly paid guy who has had a knee injury. If you guarantee me a defensive 6’6” guy will be in the future mix, I’d feel a lot better about everything.

To clarify, all NDKAs would be >6'2-6'3 defensive dmen by definition.

Yesterday this discussion inspired me to create "Value of: Max Wanner to Columbus" thread on the trade board. Not a lot of posts in there yet, and some Oilers fans who have showed up so far really don't seem to think there's a deal to be made between the teams.

But anyhow he would be a 20-yo 6'3 defensive RD who's solid with the puck.

 

[Cowumbus]

Might need to add a few more choices to this poll.

I think the secret is don’t give out bad contracts too early in the process, hit on some draft picks, and make a couple of savvy trades or free agent signings.

(2022)

 

[tunnelvision]

Might need to add a few more choices to this poll.

Why? From OP:

So I decided to make a poll to find out more about your short and a little longer term expectations for this team. The task here is not to guess when the team has actually improved enough to be considered a playoff team or a SC contender, but to set a goal for front office: if the team is not a playoff/SC contending team by the season 202x, Jarmo and JD have failed with the rebuild process in your view. So for example, if you think Jarmo should get fired asap, pick the first answer choice.

Btw I've been thinking maybe we should have a new thread titled "What decisions/moves would you like to see from the Jackets' next GM?" because I don't think Jarmo will be here next year and frustration in the fanbase seems to be growing...

 

[Johansen2Foligno]

Call us I71 because we are always under construction

 

[majormajor]

Might need to add a few more choices to this poll.

They've lost in the final minutes in the last couple games, that doesn't make me more pessimistic than I was last week or the week before.