Speculation: Duration of the rebuild

[tunnelvision]

Some posts in the last night's GDT made me realize how much diversity there is among fans here, in terms of how we assess the efforts of ownership and management, and what kind of results we SHOULD be expecting from this team this season + in the next few years. Most of us never thought this year's team would be competing for a playoff spot, let alone the Stanley Cup, but some were at least optimistic of our post-season chances.

So I decided to make a poll to find out more about your short and a little longer term expectations for this team. The task here is not to guess when the team has actually improved enough to be considered a playoff team or a SC contender, but to set a goal for front office: if the team is not a playoff/SC contending team by the season 202x, Jarmo and JD have failed with the rebuild process in your view. So for example, if you think Jarmo should get fired asap, pick the first answer choice.

Click to read more...

 

[Long Live Lyle]

I put playoffs 2024, contender 2025… but I think that will be easier to say than to actually accept as it happens. But I do think that’s a reasonable/realistic timeline, and if that doesn’t happen by then, there are some major problems.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

As someone who’s been around this forum a while, I can tell you that my anecdotal recollection is that the answer to this question, posed at any time in the years I’ve been here, is 2-4 years from “now”.

 

[Byrral]

This will be an interesting poll. I wonder where everyones positions are on the current state of the team. Most of the recent GDTs have been very critical of players (some deserved) as if the players should be doing better and as if the team should be more competitive now. And we have a tank thread (yes Hawks included). I think most are somewhere in the middle and want the team to progress and do well but figured the team was probably not a playoff team this year. I think the team needed to hit the bottom and I think Jarmo and JD over rated some of the current roster and refused to go the nuclear option (understandable). So what they have now is a mostly young and inexperienced team that's not constructed well at all. There are some pieces to keep and some pieces that could be traded to shore up some glaring holes. It's going to be interesting to see who ends up being a long term player and who gets shipped out.

I thought this would be a five year rebuild from last season (I also thought Werenski might leave) so I think they should have a competitive team by 2026. I'm still willing to be patient with Jarmo and JD but they need to fix the mix, continue showing progress as a team/organization and make the playoffs by 2024 or they need to go.

 

[TaketheCannoli]

As someone who’s been around this forums while, I can tell you that my anecdotal take is that the answer to this question, posed at any time in the year’s I’ve been here, is 2-4 years from “now”.

As someone who has been a CBJ fan since 2000, I'd say 21 years and counting.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

As someone who has been a CBJ fan since 2000, I'd say 21 years and counting.

Of course. I am merely sharing the most common answer to the question in my experience.

 

[EspenK]

I went with the furthest out option. There are currently no Crosbys, McDavids, MacKinnons, etc on the roster. I don't see any in the prospects either. . We have some solid guys just no superstars. I believe the team is not fully committed to a rebuild but rather a retooling or whatever the heck Jarmo calls it.

Trading for Jake is an example of what a team truly rebuilding wouldn't do. Trade Cam yes but for picks and prospects not an aging guy who most likely won't be re-signed after his current deal is up. Is he helping this year? Yes. But at what cost? Most likely a finish as the 8th-10th worst team rather than around the 5th or 6th thereby reducing the chance for a better draft pick.

If Zach, Sillinger, Tex, Chinakhov and Peeke continue to get better and the prospects like Johnson, Marchenko, Tarasov, etc come through as hoped then I think the Jackets can make the playoffs in 2025 but I'm not sure they will be a serious contender. If through some miracle they could land one of Bedard or Michkov next year and one of the two top RH D guys this year their chances to contend would rise significantly. Add in a return to 35-40 g Laine and chances go up again. Elvis becomes a Vezina candidate when the D improves, chances up.

Bottom line the jackets need to add a couple of superstar level guys and have all current assets max out their potential, If that happens the future is bright but that is a whole lot of ifs.

 

[koteka]

A lot has to do with other teams. The Canes aren’t going anywhere. New Jersey is ahead of us on the rebuild. I don’t trust the Rangers or Islanders but both teams have talent. When will the Pens and Caps finally collapse?

I expect

2021-22 - bottom 4-8
2022-23 - bottom 4-8
2023-24 - bottom 10-15, looking better
2024-25 - challenging for playoffs, but likely falling short
2025-26 - playoff contender

For 2026 playoffs Sillinger and Johnson will be 23 and entering their prime years. This year’s picks will be 22. Laine, if he is still here, will be 28. Werenski will also be 28. We might not be the youngest team in the league, but we’ll still be fairly young.

 

[Columbus Jack]

Interesting poll idea. The team in short needs a lot of work and without any generational talent, it will be tough to be seriously competitive.

My frustration is "avoiding the full blown rebuild". The team has sucked for so long that management believes being "somewhat competitive" is "what the fans deserve". In all reality we need to rebuild heavily. Voracek trade is actually a great call out, a full blown rebuild team would just take the picks and prospects. A prime example of what not to do is the Philadelphia Flyers. Constant belief that they are close to winning a Cup so they mortgage their future year after year all to be that much farther away from being truly competitive.

That's more or less how I see this current team. Is it the worst team in the league? Absolutely not? Are we close to competing? Definitely not.

This team needs a top 3 pick badly. They need offensive talent that can take over a game. I don't see it. Werenski is probably the closest thing to that but once again how do you convince him to stay long term for a full rebuild? That's Jarmo's and Davidson's predicament.

For now we have a lot of unproven players that could potentially break out but it's not necessarily working out that way. They are doing the best they can but it's very unrealistic to believe it was going to work out and we were going to be competitive.

My vote is for 2025. They will continue to try this "be competitive now" thing where it leaves us with a pick anywhere from 9-16. It's going to take getting slapped back down to reality for multiple years before MAYBE they realize we need to tank for the talent or get better draft/player development people. However you do it is debatable. Case in point, game changing talent is much needed.

 

[majormajor]

A lot has to do with other teams. The Canes aren’t going anywhere. New Jersey is ahead of us on the rebuild. I don’t trust the Rangers or Islanders but both teams have talent. When will the Pens and Caps finally collapse?

I expect

2021-22 - bottom 4-8
2022-23 - bottom 4-8
2023-24 - bottom 10-15, looking better
2024-25 - challenging for playoffs, but likely falling short
2025-26 - playoff contender

For 2026 playoffs Sillinger and Johnson will be 23 and entering their prime years. This year’s picks will be 22. Laine, if he is still here, will be 28. Werenski will also be 28. We might not be the youngest team in the league, but we’ll still be fairly young.

Being young won't be a good thing if we're trying to win.

I'm not feeling super optimistic at the moment. Even if Washington and Pittsburgh collapse (seems likely in a few years), Carolina, NYR, Florida, Tampa, and Detroit all look like potential juggernauts, and Ottawa, Buffalo, New Jersey all have just as much young talent as the Jackets do.

Say this is 2025.

Florida
Carolina
NYR
Tampa
Detroit
Toronto

Buffalo
Columbus?
Ottawa
New Jersey
Boston?

Washington
Montreal
NYI
Philadelphia
Pittsburgh

We might be middle of the conference. But the conference is so loaded that becoming a contender is going to require a lot of luck.

 

[majormajor]

Though drafting is ultimately the most important thing to building a winner, loading up on young players is not (at least not within the first five-seven years after the draft). If you look at the Islanders model, the only under 25 top talent they had was Barzal, and twice in the last two years they got into the top 4 where anything could happen. The Jackets have more under 25 talent than they do, as do the Sabres, Sens, Devils, and plenty of other bad and mediocre teams.

 

[koteka]

Though drafting is ultimately the most important thing to building a winner, loading up on young players is not (at least not within the first five-seven years after the draft). If you look at the Islanders model, the only under 25 top talent they had was Barzal, and twice in the last two years they got into the top 4 where anything could happen. The Jackets have more under 25 talent than they do, as do the Sabres, Sens, Devils, and plenty of other bad and mediocre teams.

I agree on the young talent. I also think you can’t just make a bunch of draft picks and hope they all pan out.

I think the secret is don’t give out bad contracts too early in the process, hit on some draft picks, and make a couple of savvy trades or free agent signings.

As an example - maybe after next season the Jackets make a deal with the Lightning. Let’s say we get Cernak who signs a prenegotiated extension. He’ll be 26. Let’s say he costs us something around Ceulemans, Voronkov, and a pick. But we get a veteran right D who is entering his prime for the 23-24 season. We give him the money would we have given Gavrikov plus some.

We could have a D that looks like

Werenski - Cernak
Bean - Boqvist
OJBH/Knazko - Peeke

I mean we built a pretty good team before with some savvy trades (e.g, for Saad and then Panarin) to a veteran playoff teams with cap issues. I don’t see why we couldn’t do it again.

But I see this as a few year process. And you want to make the right moves and not sign bad contracts. (We can sign a couple of bad contracts in 2030 when we are thinking about making a third Cup run.)

 

[ColumbusTrill]

I agree on the young talent. I also think you can’t just make a bunch of draft picks and hope they all pan out.

I think the secret is don’t give out bad contracts too early in the process, hit on some draft picks, and make a couple of savvy trades or free agent signings.

As an example - maybe after next season the Jackets make a deal with the Lightning. Let’s say we get Cernak who signs a prenegotiated extension. He’ll be 26. Let’s say he costs us something around Ceulemans, Voronkov, and a pick. But we get a veteran right D who is entering his prime for the 23-24 season. We give him the money would we have given Gavrikov plus some.

We could have a D that looks like

Werenski - Cernak
Bean - Boqvist
OJBH/Knazko - Peeke

I mean we built a pretty good team before with some savvy trades (e.g, for Saad and then Panarin) to a veteran playoff teams with cap issues. I don’t see why we couldn’t do it again.

But I see this as a few year process. And you want to make the right moves and not sign bad contracts. (We can sign a couple of bad contracts in 2030 when we are thinking about making a third Cup run.)

Assuming you are trading Gavrikov in this scenario?

 

[Viqsi]

It'll take however long it takes. I've found that if I try to set deadlines all it does is depress me, regardless of whether or not they're met.

 

[koteka]

Assuming you are trading Gavrikov in this scenario?

At the deadline next year assuming we are out of it. He’ll be UFA.

 

[majormajor]

I think the secret is don’t give out bad contracts too early in the process, hit on some draft picks, and make a couple of savvy trades or free agent signings.

As an example - maybe after next season the Jackets make a deal with the Lightning. Let’s say we get Cernak who signs a prenegotiated extension.

I do suspect that you're right, that it will take more than just hitting on some draft picks.

I think the Chychrun talk fits that, kind of like Cernak but more offensive pop. I'd be pleased with

Werenski - Gavrikov/Chych
Chychrun/Gav - Boqvist
Holm/Svozil - Peeke

That sort of move adds a lot of credibility too, free agents want to play for a GM that is willing to make big moves to win. That gives us a better shot at Gaudreau or Huberdeau or whatever elite talent comes to market. If we're trying to win it all with just draft picks, then I think it is a long slog ahead of us, and we're more of a tough sell to free agents.

 

[koteka]

I do suspect that you're right, that it will take more than just hitting on some draft picks.

I look at a team like Toronto and I think of trades they could have made that would have made them a better team. Yet it seems like they are to afraid to make a big deal. Tampa, in contrast, seemed to identify their issues and make the trades they needed to make to improve the team.

 

[majormajor]

Trading for Jake is an example of what a team truly rebuilding wouldn't do. Trade Cam yes but for picks and prospects not an aging guy who most likely won't be re-signed after his current deal is up. Is he helping this year? Yes. But at what cost? Most likely a finish as the 8th-10th worst team rather than around the 5th or 6th thereby reducing the chance for a better draft pick.

I think a bit more context is needed here.

Voracek and Atkinson were negative value contracts that were swapped for each other. We (here) all rated Cam as our worst contract / lowest trade value. There probably wasn't a picks and prospects option there. And critically, Voracek has one less year on his deal, which is a plus for a rebuilding club.

Yes, the deal does give us a better fitting player and that moves us up the standings a smidge. But losing badly because none of our pieces fit together is ... not a course we would both agree on. Sounds like a good way to get the rest of our players to leave the team.

 

[EspenK]

Definitely buy in to the need to add talent via the trade route. It is the timing that is critical imo. For example, adding Hertl at this year's TDL would be foolish., 3 or 4 years down the line if all is going well then adding a guy like that makes sense. Also agree that not giving away big contracts too soon is another key.

 

[majormajor]

Definitely buy in to the need to add talent via the trade route. It is the timing that is critical imo. For example, adding Hertl at this year's TDL would be foolish., 3 or 4 years down the line if all is going well then adding a guy like that makes sense. Also agree that not giving away big contracts too soon is another key.

I'm hoping it will be more like 1-2 years down the line, but yeah I suppose it could be a few until Jarmo can make big moves like that.

I will have to say that that is one area where I'm confident in Jarmo. He makes big moves. There are so many teams that get mired in dragged out / quasi unsuccessful rebuilds where the fans hope for a big trade and it never happens. Some teams do not make big acquisitions.

 

[ViD]

As Bengals have shown, two top picks might turn a franchise from 4th worst to 4th best.

If we somehow land Wright/Bedard/Michkov, the franchise will be given a new life

 

[majormajor]

As Bengals have shown, two top picks might turn a franchise from 4th worst to 4th best.

If we somehow land Wright/Bedard/Michkov, the franchise will be given a new life

Not in hockey. You need the rest of the team to come along.

Shane Wright doesn't look like he'll be shortening rebuilds much. Bedard or Michkov - okay that would be franchise changing.

 

[ViD]

Not in hockey. You need the rest of the team to come along.

Sid and Geno, Ovie and Backstrom overhauled franchises within a couple years.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

Not in hockey. You need the rest of the team to come along.

Shane Wright doesn't look like he'll be shortening rebuilds much. Bedard or Michkov - okay that would be franchise changing.

We have a lot of the depth covered. We have plenty of 2nd/3rd line tweeners and some top line potential talent.

D is a bit of a different story. But you already know that story so I don't need to explain it to you. But I don't think the D is terrible right now, or that far off from being good.

Goalie you think you have your two guys long term for the future (elvis and tarasov)

We're close-ish. Center depth is really where we lack, and even though Wright might not be "franchise changing" on his own, he can still be "franchise changing" by being a top line center, which I still believe he will be. You don't have to be elite to change a franchise, look at Ryan O'Reilly.

As far as answering the OP's question, I've been thinking about it a lot since its been posted. Will have a more in depth post when I can collect my thoughts more.

 

[EspenK]

Not in hockey. You need the rest of the team to come along.

Shane Wright doesn't look like he'll be shortening rebuilds much. Bedard or Michkov - okay that would be franchise changing.

And have a GM who knows how to build a good supporting cast. Obviously two guys don't by themselves get it done - see Edmonton and to some extent Toronto. I think the Jackets have the guys to support a superstar or two. Its just the lack of the superstar (s) who will make it difficult for the Jackets to become a perennial top 4 team in the league as the rest of the supporting cast gains experience and chemistry.