Player Discussion Duncan Keith

Captain Controversy

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Apr 30, 2015
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He’s been better than I expected, he and Ceci have been a solid second pair, which is something we haven’t had in a long time.

can’t judge him on the cost to acquire him or his contract. Those are things Holland gets judged on.

We payed Caleb Jones and a third for a f××king winner. A guy who can calm the horses. Caleb Jones sucks and nobody gives a shit about third round picks.

Yes his cap hit is heavy but he had been worth it for his playoff performances alone.
 

Aerchon

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Jul 20, 2011
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Kieth Haters proven wrong. But doubt they’ll eat the crow, cause their love of their own ego and being “right” supersedes their love of the team.
Fair is fair. As another mentioned it was his best game as an Oiler last night.

Keith played strong the first 3 games of series one as well... before making fools of his supporters in game 4 & 5 with an epic collapse.

If we see good to great Keith more consistent I and many other will dine on the flesh of the carrion bird.

But too much celebration prematurely leads to hexes and jinxed results in my experience.
 

Oilslick941611

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Jul 4, 2006
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We payed Caleb Jones and a third for a f××king winner. A guy who can calm the horses. Caleb Jones sucks and nobody gives a shit about third round picks.

Yes his cap hit is heavy but he had been worth it for his playoff performances alone.
exactly and that's the reason he was acquired. We needed winners in the locker room and on the ice to help get over the first round hump. All of Hollands acquisitions this off. season with the exception of Foegele and Ryan have been excellent for us in the playoffs. Keith, Hyman and Kane are proving their worth in the playoffs, which what is all about right? During the season the vocal toxic negative nellies where all saying when we were doing well that only the playoffs count, now they are doing well in the playoffs they've moved the goalposts. No surprises there of course.
 

TheNumber4

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Nov 11, 2011
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Fair is fair. As another mentioned it was his best game as an Oiler last night.

Keith played strong the first 3 games of series one as well... before making fools of his supporters in game 4 & 5 with an epic collapse.

If we see good to great Keith more consistent I and many other will dine on the flesh of the carrion bird.

But too much celebration prematurely leads to hexes and jinxed results in my experience.
Didn’t make fools of anyone. Epic collapse is your definition. I admit Keith has made some mistakes and still some of these mistakes weren’t even his mistakes. He was blamed for the OT goal against, even though the entire team was out skated and dominated from puck drop out for like 2 straight minutes, then Yamo does a lazy clear right back on Kings stick that gets Keith caught out there for too long and he gets burned by the Kings fastest skater. You probably cheered that moment as a oppurtunity to say “look I’m right”. But that wasn’t on Kieth despite the optics, look at the context.

Either way we are 91 games into Keith’s tenture now. We’ve all seen him play good and bad and it’s still obvious this team what he brings has helped this team win games in the playoffs.
 

bobbythebrain

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Some simple connections

The Oilers best games in the prior 2 playoff series were still just ok. The team leaders in those series looked pedestrian

Holland stressed the importance of leadership, that extra gear, dig deeper mode and calmness you need for playoff hockey. He sites Keith as an acquisition for just that

Fast forward a season, here you have McD going nuclear, Drai w/ 15 points with a flu and bad leg, and Bouchard/Keith as the best pairing on whole so far, and that ability to bounce back didn't just manifest out of nowhere

Ya, perhaps Keith presence has rubbed off a tad bit and Holland wasn't crazy
 
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MessierII

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He had a very rough 1st round of playoffs so last night was to make up for those games. Also I was literally the first poster to praise his gameplay in this thread last night so I'm clearly more than happy to give credit where credit is due.
That’s such BS. Games 1-3 he was our best d man. Games 6-7 he was really good as well. 2 bad games out of 7.
 

Stoneman89

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Feb 8, 2008
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Fair is fair. As another mentioned it was his best game as an Oiler last night.

Keith played strong the first 3 games of series one as well... before making fools of his supporters in game 4 & 5 with an epic collapse.

If we see good to great Keith more consistent I and many other will dine on the flesh of the carrion bird.

But too much celebration prematurely leads to hexes and jinxed results in my experience.
And then played very well again (like most on the team) in games 6 and 7, continuing to make a fool of you. So much for collapsing in round one.
 

Trafalgar Sadge Law

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Nov 8, 2007
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That’s such BS. Games 1-3 he was our best d man. Games 6-7 he was really good as well. 2 bad games out of 7.
Nonsense.

He had 1 awful game, 1 rough game that jived with the team overall, and 3 great games. Top pairing in 3 wins.

"A VERY rough first round" 😅😅
Thats garbage , a tired fabrication. He had 1 tough game.
People who fabricate shit to support their long debunked narrative are tiresome.
He had significant issues in terms of defending the rush and with entry denial which allowed LA to come in and establish the cycle against us which contributed to some of those awful shot differentials (Nurse wasn't much better in this regard). To his credit the majority of LA chances generated during said cycles were perimeter shots but it's still an issue that's been plaguing him the past 3 years. He's actually still not defending entries well vs Calgary but is more than making up for it with offense.
 

bobbythebrain

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He had significant issues in terms of defending the rush and with entry denial which allowed LA to come in and establish the cycle against us which contributed to some of those awful shot differentials (Nurse wasn't much better in this regard). To his credit the majority of LA chances generated during said cycles were perimeter shots but it's still an issue that's been plaguing him the past 3 years. He's actually still not defending entries well vs Calgary but is more than making up for it with offense.

You lost me at JFresh...however, he was our best dman at actually anticipating and cutting off the cycle while everyone else chased
 

SupremeTeam16

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May 31, 2013
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Fair is fair. As another mentioned it was his best game as an Oiler last night.

Keith played strong the first 3 games of series one as well... before making fools of his supporters in game 4 & 5 with an epic collapse.

If we see good to great Keith more consistent I and many other will dine on the flesh of the carrion bird.

But too much celebration prematurely leads to hexes and jinxed results in my experience.

So when he’s good to great you want to talk about he needs to be more consistent but the second he has a bad game or even a bad shift you and others just jump all over the opportunity to tear him down and stroke yourselves off.
 

Trafalgar Sadge Law

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Nov 8, 2007
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You lost me at JFresh...however, he was our best dman at actually anticipating and cutting off the cycle while everyone else chased
The Jfresh chart is just to quantify the issues with defending the rush and entry prevention, you can see that with your eyes too when your Kempes or Gaudreaus come in through his side uncontested. And yes I already said he's fine at limiting the chances to mostly perimeter shots when the cycle does get established.
 

MessierII

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He had significant issues in terms of defending the rush and with entry denial which allowed LA to come in and establish the cycle against us which contributed to some of those awful shot differentials (Nurse wasn't much better in this regard). To his credit the majority of LA chances generated during said cycles were perimeter shots but it's still an issue that's been plaguing him the past 3 years. He's actually still not defending entries well vs Calgary but is more than making up for it with offense.

Now do the list of best guys at preventing it and let me know which group of players you’d rather be with.
 

TheNumber4

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Nov 11, 2011
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Some simple connections

The Oilers best games in the prior 2 playoff series were still just ok. The team leaders in those series looked pedestrian

Holland stressed the importance of leadership, that extra gear, dig deeper mode and calmness you need for playoff hockey. He sites Keith as an acquisition for just that

Fast forward a season, here you have McD going nuclear, Drai w/ 15 points with a flu and bad leg, and Bouchard/Keith as the best pairing on whole so far, and that ability to bounce back didn't just manifest out of nowhere

Ya, perhaps Keith presence has rubbed off a tad bit and Holland wasn't crazy
Imagine right now if we relied on Nurse to be leading from the back end. Oof. The Keith pick up is turning into a stroke of genius for Holland. Exactly what this group needs.

He had significant issues in terms of defending the rush and with entry denial which allowed LA to come in and establish the cycle against us which contributed to some of those awful shot differentials (Nurse wasn't much better in this regard). To his credit the majority of LA chances generated during said cycles were perimeter shots but it's still an issue that's been plaguing him the past 3 years. He's actually still not defending entries well vs Calgary but is more than making up for it with offense.

The way Jfresh frames things is bullshit. What he means to say is “These are the defenceman who just happened to be on the ice most when the other team entered their zone”. Zone entry prevention is a TEAM endeavour. Try stepping up at the blue line with no back check support, it doesn’t happen.
 

Trafalgar Sadge Law

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Or the stat is BS and Brendan Smith isn’t better than Roman Josi.
Nobody said Brendan Smith was better than Roman Josi? It's obviously a sample size thing and results for a specific 4-7 game span is not reflective of overall ability nor even predictive of future results, it just shows performance for that series for that specific skillset and nothing more. Also for the record Josi did have a poor series defensively vs Colorado, doesn't take away from the year he had overall and his teammates owed him a bailout for carrying them into playoffs to begin with, but lets not pretend he didn't get caved in defensively by the likes of Makar and MacKinnon.
 

MessierII

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Nobody said Brendan Smith was better than Roman Josi? It's obviously a sample size thing and results for a specific 4-7 game span is not reflective of overall ability nor even predictive of future results, it just shows performance for that series for that specific skillset and nothing more. Also for the record Josi did have a poor series defensively vs Colorado, doesn't take away from the year he had overall and his teammates owed him a bailout for carrying them into playoffs to begin with, but lets not pretend he didn't get caved in defensively by the likes of Makar and MacKinnon.
You can cherry pick tons of things like that to make good or bad arguments for every player. It’s all noise. Look at the source. JFresh war models and defence rankings are ridiculous and insanely off base. The group of players being portrayed negatively here are clearly superior players. JFresh is a joke.
 

Bank Shot

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Jan 18, 2006
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Nobody said Brendan Smith was better than Roman Josi? It's obviously a sample size thing and results for a specific 4-7 game span is not reflective of overall ability nor even predictive of future results, it just shows performance for that series for that specific skillset and nothing more. Also for the record Josi did have a poor series defensively vs Colorado, doesn't take away from the year he had overall and his teammates owed him a bailout for carrying them into playoffs to begin with, but lets not pretend he didn't get caved in defensively by the likes of Makar and MacKinnon.
Its not even measuring a specific skillset though.

Its measuring a combination of systems play, coaching usages, quality of competition, etc, etc.

I saw a JFresh chart once that showed Lucic as one of the best in the league at controlled zone exits.

There is so much noise in the data that it is essentially worthless.

I agree that trying to measure this skillset is important. Denying zone entries with possession is important, but there needs to be a much better methodology.
 

jaysoneil

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Feb 22, 2013
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He's been just fine, and whether most would admit it or not, even a little better than expected. A million cheaper (not his fault) would be ideal but other than that, I no issue with Keith.

I do believe we will see his true value in the playoffs.
I come in peace.

Keith isn't the stud he was in 2010/2015, but damn has he been noticeable this series vs CGY. Hawks fan, Keith fan, temporary Oilers fan. Hoping he can continue being a positive asset for the Oilers and contribute to McDavid's first Cup. Cheers boys, BOL!
 

Oilhawks

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Nov 24, 2011
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I come in peace.

Keith isn't the stud he was in 2010/2015, but damn has he been noticeable this series vs CGY. Hawks fan, Keith fan, temporary Oilers fan. Hoping he can continue being a positive asset for the Oilers and contribute to McDavid's first Cup. Cheers boys, BOL!

giphy.gif


Cheers, from one of the biggest fans of Keith on these boards. (Picked up the Hawks as my second team after they drafted Kane, sure as hell helped get me thru the Oiler's Decade of Darkness)

I don't think many here would be too upset for that draft pick to become a 2nd :D
 

bobbythebrain

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You can cherry pick tons of things like that to make good or bad arguments for every player. It’s all noise. Look at the source. JFresh war models and defence rankings are ridiculous and insanely off base. The group of players being portrayed negatively here are clearly superior players. JFresh is a joke.
Umm, i think that's not the only joke attempted here
 

bobbythebrain

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Jul 30, 2016
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giphy.gif


Cheers, from one of the biggest fans of Keith on these boards. (Picked up the Hawks as my second team after they drafted Kane, sure as hell helped get me thru the Oiler's Decade of Darkness)

I don't think many here would be too upset for that draft pick to become a 2nd :D
Pretty important caveat to all the ppl crying about the cap hit. Their GM and our GM put in this clause because both anticipated this might be a factor in success.

CHI was pure garbage w/ a now fired coach. It doesn't take a rocket appliance education to see he still had value as a player who might tilt the lockerrom in the process
 

oobga

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Aug 1, 2003
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He had significant issues in terms of defending the rush and with entry denial which allowed LA to come in and establish the cycle against us which contributed to some of those awful shot differentials (Nurse wasn't much better in this regard). To his credit the majority of LA chances generated during said cycles were perimeter shots but it's still an issue that's been plaguing him the past 3 years. He's actually still not defending entries well vs Calgary but is more than making up for it with offense.


This matches my eye tests as well. Keith is one of the only D on our team that didn't really change his game with the coaching change. He just is not a fan of challenging entries. What can ya do? You just gotta let the 3 cup, Norris, Conn Smythe winner play how he wants. And gotta hope he makes up for it other ways.

He is definitely more random and unpredictable in our end than I would like and leaves Bouch stranded now and then but he has been good enough for the 2nd pair most games in the playoffs.
 

bobbythebrain

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Jul 30, 2016
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Nobody said Brendan Smith was better than Roman Josi? It's obviously a sample size thing and results for a specific 4-7 game span is not reflective of overall ability nor even predictive of future results, it just shows performance for that series for that specific skillset and nothing more. Also for the record Josi did have a poor series defensively vs Colorado, doesn't take away from the year he had overall and his teammates owed him a bailout for carrying them into playoffs to begin with, but lets not pretend he didn't get caved in defensively by the likes of Makar and MacKinnon.
It doesn't show anything tbh. JFresh came out hot to the masses who don't understand analytics as a whole but love to pick low hanging fruit. They are truly the TMZ/Enquirer of stats, and I would not be suprised if Eklund was the head editor.
As fast and popular as they came in, they went out credibility wise when during FA and expansion draft they were pumping out some ridiculous stats trying to quantify some f'ed up reality of player values with asinine comparisons. Embarrassing really

You lose mega points simply by trying to cite them as a barometer in talks. They target and appeal to ppl like you who want soooo bad to bend a narrative

Hence, Ilya Lubushkin was better at defense than Roman Josi. Get real ffs

Plus/minus was always a misused stat, or I remember when giveaway stats became very popular. I admit I got sucked into that honey trap for a minute also till you realize all the elite players have the most giveaways. Context matters. JFresh make their $ citing outta context

Context, even in those horrible games Keith had, zone entries were never a problem. His giveaways on the exits killed us. But he played well in all but 2 games, so those zone entries you mention never even remotely cost the team any strife
 
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