Speculation: Duchene trade looking back

[cgf]

What a huge question. Everything depends on Karlsson doesn’t it.

I don't think so. Dutchy seemed to be genuinely happy playing hockey for the first time in over two years by the end of the season. So even if there is a huge EK trade I can see Matt happily extending for 7.5-7.75per, unless Stone & Hoffman depart as well.

No one and I mean no one thinks Shane Bowers will as good as Brady.

No one. Period. Nice #s though.

True, Brady's hands give him a higher offensive upside. But those #s should remind folks that even though Bowers gets so much praise for his two-way game, he was a highly touted offensive player whose draft year production was very impressive in the USHL even before this impressive freshman year, and that talent is still there...especially with regards to his shot. There's a reason why he's consistently a high-end producer for his teams, even if he isn't a game breaker with the puck on his stick.

Not saying that folks should be expecting him to become Jeff Carter 2.0, but he's not the "3rd liner at best" that some of Ottawa's more...opinionated posters claimed.

 

[cgf]

I know Matt is saying all the right things when it comes to staying in Ottawa, but I wouldn't take it at face value. He has said time and time again that his main focus is to play for a contender, he didn't want out of Colorado because hated it there as a place to live, or because he disliked the people in the org, he wanted out because he was sick of rebuilding. Having that in mind I see little hope for Sens re-signing him unless:

1. He did a 180° on his views
2. They offer him an insane amount of money that will possibly change his mind

...kinda glossing over the year that the organization had him on the block before his trade request. He may not have hated the organization, but he was obviously hurt by Roy's attempts to trade him...and Joe continuing to explore those options even after Patrick bailed.

I'm not so sure he'd have "wanted to play in the playoffs" as badly if the organization was still heaping the love onto him.

 

[Eltuna]

Avs fan that thinks Duchene signs in Ottawa for sure. For me it’s more about how much rather than if he will. Duchene is in the Ryan/Johansen situation where if he really wanted to, he can basically force Ottawa to give him an expensive contract because of what they gave up for him. If he walks Dorion gets fired. Duchene doesn’t seem like the kind of guy to do that, but if he asks for 8.5 million they don’t have much of a choice, even though he has only played at a 55 point pace for the last 4 seasons. Duchene took a bridge after his elc and then signed for only 6 million per year on his next contract. Compared to guys like ROR or Johansen he hasn’t made a ton of money in his career and might see this as his best opportunity to cash in.

 

[Ararana]

I really think everyone won that trade, with Avs being the clear top winner. I'm very happy with Duchene in OTT but don't get me wrong, Avs are in a GREAT position now going forward.

Turris had a meh year but Nashville gave up very little for him. They are well set going forwards.

At the end of the day for Ottawa, it's hard to agrue when you get the current best player in the trade. Get him extended and put the trade in the rear view mirror.

 

[TkachukNorris79]

I really think everyone won that trade, with Avs being the clear top winner. I'm very happy with Duchene in OTT but don't get me wrong, Avs are in a GREAT position now going forward.

Turris had a meh year but Nashville gave up very little for him. They are well set going forwards.

Colorado definitely killed that trade. That was a given.

It didn't seem THAT bad for Ottawa (I wasn't pleased with the 1st) and now that they crumbled, it looks worse. I guess it depends on where that pick lands next year. But I'd trade Turris and Bowers for Duchene any day of the week. That 1st was overkill. But Duchene is the best centre we've had since spezza in his prime (10 years ago). And the roster isn't absolutely trash so hopefully that pick isn't too good.

It looked pretty solid for Nashville early on, but Turris really struggled in the last half of the season and in the playoffs. Losing Girard, Kamanev and the 2nd is also a tough pill to swallow. I really really like Turris and hope he bounces back next year as I expect he will. Great guy and player and wish we could have kept him, but Duchene is a clear upgrade.

It's gonna be a trade we talk about for a long time.

 

[Ivan13]

I really think everyone won that trade, with Avs being the clear top winner. I'm very happy with Duchene in OTT but don't get me wrong, Avs are in a GREAT position now going forward.

Turris had a meh year but Nashville gave up very little for him. They are well set going forwards.

For the life of me I don't see how Ottawa won a damn thing in that trade. They marginally upgraded on Turris for a price of Bowers, 1st, Hammond and 3rd. And given how the season ended that 1st could realistically end up top 5 barring a massive improvement.

 

[cgf]

I really think everyone won that trade, with Avs being the clear top winner. I'm very happy with Duchene in OTT but don't get me wrong, Avs are in a GREAT position now going forward.

Turris had a meh year but Nashville gave up very little for him. They are well set going forwards.

But what a little it was that they gave up

 

[Duncstar]

For the life of me I don't see how Ottawa won a damn thing in that trade. They marginally upgraded on Turris for a price of Bowers, 1st, Hammond and 3rd. And given how the season ended that 1st could realistically end up top 5 barring a massive improvement.

Marginally? I think that is marginally a understatement lol.

 

[cgf]

Marginally? I think that is marginally a understatement lol.

Personally, I agree with you.

That said, as we heard from many of you guys prior to the trade ;-), statistically they've been really close since Dutchy's PPG year and Turris is the better two-way player...although I think his two-way game got over-rated, while Matt's is under-rated and so the two-way gap was never enough to make up for the offensive gap; even if the numbers didn't bear it out...so it's not exactly out there for other folks to think the upgrade is only marginal

 

[Mighty Makar]

I obviously hope the Sens suck next season, but I think they’ll rebound. Of course, things will fall apart if/when they trade Karlsson and/or Hoffman.

 

[Soundgarden]

It looked pretty solid for Nashville early on, but Turris really struggled in the last half of the season and in the playoffs. Losing Girard, Kamanev and the 2nd is also a tough pill to swallow. I really really like Turris and hope he bounces back next year as I expect he will. Great guy and player and wish we could have kept him, but Duchene is a clear upgrade.

It's gonna be a trade we talk about for a long time.

Turris still has six years left on his contract for us, it'd be incredibly short sighted to judge this trade based on one bad playoff performance when he can easily become our 2nd highest scoring center we've ever had by just averaging 50 points a year.

 

[Balthazar]

For the life of me I don't see how Ottawa won a damn thing in that trade. They marginally upgraded on Turris for a price of Bowers, 1st, Hammond and 3rd. And given how the season ended that 1st could realistically end up top 5 barring a massive improvement.

Turris didn't want to stay. It was a decent trade for the Sens, especially if they keep Duchene.

 

[Captain Mountain]

I obviously hope the Sens suck next season, but I think they’ll rebound. Of course, things will fall apart if/when they trade Karlsson and/or Hoffman.

Will they? Look at the division. Boston and Tampa aren't going to get any weaker. Toronto will likely lose a lot of depth, but they have young guys they can plug in and cap space to target holes. Florida almost made the play-offs and it sounds like Tallon will be aggressive in the offseason. Buffalo still needs a lot of work, but they'll be adding Middlestat and Dahlin for next season. Montreal had just as much, if not more bad luck than Ottawa last season and while I highly doubt they make the play-offs, a healthy Weber and Price should make them tougher to face. Is a 37 year old Anderson going to bounce back? How will Ottawa address their D depth?

 

[Ararana]

Will they? Look at the division. Boston and Tampa aren't going to get any weaker. Toronto will likely lose a lot of depth, but they have young guys they can plug in and cap space to target holes. Florida almost made the play-offs and it sounds like Tallon will be aggressive in the offseason. Buffalo still needs a lot of work, but they'll be adding Middlestat and Dahlin for next season. Montreal had just as much, if not more bad luck than Ottawa last season and while I highly doubt they make the play-offs, a healthy Weber and Price should make them tougher to face. Is a 37 year old Anderson going to bounce back? How will Ottawa address their D depth?

I could probably copy this extact paragraph, change the names of the teams, and it's what people were saying about the Avs last summer.

 

[Mighty Makar]

Will they? Look at the division. Boston and Tampa aren't going to get any weaker. Toronto will likely lose a lot of depth, but they have young guys they can plug in and cap space to target holes. Florida almost made the play-offs and it sounds like Tallon will be aggressive in the offseason. Buffalo still needs a lot of work, but they'll be adding Middlestat and Dahlin for next season. Montreal had just as much, if not more bad luck than Ottawa last season and while I highly doubt they make the play-offs, a healthy Weber and Price should make them tougher to face. Is a 37 year old Anderson going to bounce back? How will Ottawa address their D depth?

I guess a lot depends on if Karlsson stays or not. If they trade him and/or Hoffman, then it’s looking like a rebuild and the Avs will get a nice pick next June .

 

[Captain Mountain]

I could probably copy this extact paragraph, change the names of the teams, and it's what people were saying about the Avs last summer.

That's the thing with the parity hockey league though. Ottawa can bounce right back into the play-offs or do even worse next season.

 

[Captain Mountain]

I guess a lot depends on if Karlsson stays or not. If they trade him and/or Hoffman, then it’s looking like a rebuild and the Avs will get a nice pick next June .

Or they trade Karlsson and Hoffman for a bunch of undervalued Vegas-esque players and end up better than before. The margin between play-off team and lottery team is incredibly thin right now. I really think only the top contenders are differentiated right now, and even that can change quicky.

 

[cgf]

Will they? Look at the division. Boston and Tampa aren't going to get any weaker. Toronto will likely lose a lot of depth, but they have young guys they can plug in and cap space to target holes. Florida almost made the play-offs and it sounds like Tallon will be aggressive in the offseason. Buffalo still needs a lot of work, but they'll be adding Middlestat and Dahlin for next season. Montreal had just as much, if not more bad luck than Ottawa last season and while I highly doubt they make the play-offs, a healthy Weber and Price should make them tougher to face. Is a 37 year old Anderson going to bounce back? How will Ottawa address their D depth?

The biggest advantage I see, as an avs fan, for the Sens is that they have a ton of young forwards that are banging on the doors. So if they turn to those kids...White, Brown, Formenton, Batherson, Chlapik...next season the Sens could be able to roll 4 legit lines at all times like Vegas has done in front of Fleury & an iffy blueline of their own, to get to the WCF.

Now I don't think the Sens are making a run to the final 4 even if Anderson has one of his classic bounce-back years...if only to spite the avs one last time. And the blueline will be a mess unless they can hold onto EK, Chabot takes a big step in year two, they draft Bouchard, and Ceci gets his head out of his ass. But I'm still not expecting them to send us a pick that's significantly higher than 10th overall (pre-lottery).

I guess a lot depends on if Karlsson stays or not. If they trade him and/or Hoffman, then it’s looking like a rebuild and the Avs will get a nice pick next June .

We'll get a nice pick no matter what. That was supposed to be a late first, so anything in the top 20 is gravy

 

[cgf]

I could probably copy this extact paragraph, change the names of the teams, and it's what people were saying about the Avs last summer.

Are you trying to suggest that the race for Dahlin didn't come down to Colorado, Vegas & New Jersey, like all of us predicted it to last august?

 

[Captain Mountain]

The biggest advantage I see, as an avs fan, for the Sens is that they have a ton of young forwards that are banging on the doors. So if they turn to those kids...White, Brown, Formenton, Batherson, Chlapik...next season the Sens could be able to roll 4 legit lines at all times like Vegas has done in front of Fleury & an iffy blueline of their own, to get to the WCF.

Now I don't think the Sens are making a run to the final 4 even if Anderson has one of his classic bounce-back years...if only to spite the avs one last time. And the blueline will be a mess unless they can hold onto EK, Chabot takes a big step in year two, they draft Bouchard, and Ceci gets his head out of his ass. But I'm still not expecting them to send us a pick that's significantly higher than 10th overall (pre-lottery).


We'll get a nice pick no matter what. That was supposed to be a late first, so anything in the top 20 is gravy

Formenton, Batherson and
Chlapik still probably need time before they're NHL ready, and how big of an immediate impact do people expect White and Brown to have.

And a lot of people are seriously sleeping on the strength and depth of Vegas' D-core. Theodore is already pretty good, Schmidt and Miller and incredibly underrated, McNabb is a decent #4 and they have excellent D depth.

 

[cgf]

Formenton, Batherson and
Chlapik still probably need time before they're NHL ready, and how big of an immediate impact do people expect White and Brown to have.

And a lot of people are seriously sleeping on the strength and depth of Vegas' D-core. Theodore is already pretty good, Schmidt and Miller and incredibly underrated, McNabb is a decent #4 and they have excellent D depth.

Batherson almost won a spot out of camp for them last year, didn't he? I'm pretty confident about him being ready if they've got a spot for him in their bottom 6, and with Formenton I'm just a big fan of his. So I think he'd do a great job if given that chance, even if some more AHL polish probably wouldn't hurt him if they don't have an NHL gig for him to. Chlapik, I don't have strong feelings about, but some sens fans seem really high on him, so I figured I'd include him in the ready/near-ready group

Because, ultimately, the exact impacts of each individual kid aren't as important as the impact a large enough youth wave like that can have on the collective. Not only by bolstering the depth enough to let everyone stay fresh and go full blast on every shift; but because having that much youthful exuberance & hunger add to a locker-room can really light a fire under the veterans...both to lead these kids, and also to fight for their jobs...and bring a more optimistic-dynamic/positive-energy to a locker-room that has to be feeling strained after the disastrous 2017-2018 season, Melnyk's comments, and the public Karlsson saga.

That's why if I was running that team I'd have all 4 of White, Brown, Batherson & Formenton pencilled in for this season, even if Formenton might not quite be ready & so has to have his role limited or even has to platoon with a vet until he gets his feet under him. And I'd be hitting the college FA & UDFA markets for kids that need a shot at an NHL spot.



I do love me some Theodore...but I also am not going to write off Chabot taking a big step in his 2nd year, and being able to match what Theodore is doing for Vegas, because I do like Chabot even more in the long run. Schmidt I'm with you on, supes under-rated, but I guess I'm still one of the unconverted on Miller. He's a really solid middle pairing guy, but I don't see him as dramatically better than the level Ceci hits when on form.

F*** McNabb. And the rest are all third pairing/rotational guys, so who cares if they're excellent third pairing/rotational guys? They'd still get exposed if they didn't have 4 really good lines rolling in front of them, limited roles, and a monster behind them who gives the whole team the confidence to know that even if they screw up on a given play, Flower's got their back, so they can just go out there & push it.

And again, Vegas is going to the WCF with their team. Ottawa doesn't have to be an equally good version of Vegas to pull themselves out of the bottom 10 next season. Which is all I'm arguing that I think they're likely to pull off, even if Karlsson is traded, without needing the heaven's to align to happen.

 

[Joe Sakic]

...kinda glossing over the year that the organization had him on the block before his trade request. He may not have hated the organization, but he was obviously hurt by Roy's attempts to trade him...and Joe continuing to explore those options even after Patrick bailed.

I'm not so sure he'd have "wanted to play in the playoffs" as badly if the organization was still heaping the love onto him.

I'm fairly certain Duchene asked to be put on the block.

Sakic and Duchene stated that he (Duchene) had asked Joe for a trade the previous December prior to being traded.

Duchene stated in his post-trade interview that asking his childhood idol Joe Sakic for a trade was one of the hardest things he had ever had to do.

I don't think Sakic was trying to trade him before his trade request.

 

[cgf]

I'm fairly certain Duchene asked to be put on the block.

Sakic and Duchene stated that he (Duchene) had asked Joe for a trade the previous December prior to being traded.

Duchene stated in his post-trade interview that asking his childhood idol Joe Sakic for a trade was one of the hardest things he had ever had to do.

I don't think Sakic was trying to trade him before his trade request.

Duchene asked for a trade around New Years 2016-2017...when his production disappeared completely for the rest of the season...Roy had the Chabot+Zibanejad offer from Ottawa ready & waiting for Sakic's signature in the summer of 2016. Meaning Roy must've already been shopping Dutchy even earlier.

So it may have been closer to half a year before Duchene's trade request than a full year, that the team started shopping him. Though I'd argue it must've been at least 7-8 months before for Roy to have had the Ottawa offer worked out while Radulov was still available to be signed.

 

[Joe Sakic]

Duchene asked for a trade around New Years 2016-2017...when his production disappeared completely for the rest of the season...Roy had the Chabot+Zibanejad offer from Ottawa ready & waiting for Sakic's signature in the summer of 2016. Meaning Roy must've already been shopping Dutchy even earlier.

So it may have been closer to half a year before Duchene's trade request than a full year, that the team started shopping him. Though I'd argue it must've been at least 7-8 months before for Roy to have had the Ottawa offer worked out while Radulov was still available to be signed.

Didn't know about that Ottawa deal.

I do remember Roy not being overly fond of Duchene though. Same with Barrie.

 

[Halla]

If ottawa had just avoided duchene all together and traded Turris for Kamenev,Girard,2nd
they would have a massive jump on a rebuild. still have bowers, a potential lotto pick next year, another 3rd as well.

Duchene is a good player, but he has hit 60pts two times in nine years. None since his career year in 2013-2014
wasnt worth the haul they gave up