Speculation: Duchene trade looking back

[Emerica]

If ottawa had just avoided duchene all together and traded Turris for Kamenev,Girard,2nd
they would have a massive jump on a rebuild. still have bowers, a potential lotto pick next year, another 3rd as well.

Duchene is a good player, but he has hit 60pts two times in nine years. None since his career year in 2013-2014
wasnt worth the haul they gave up

They had just been to the ECF a handful of months prior. They weren't planning on having to rebuild/retool. They we're looking to add to what they thought was a contending team.

 

[Siludin]

Discounting Duchene, Ottawa never had the forward group to be truly competitive. Every player on their roster was an overachiever for their pedigree (except the one who was supposed to be a difference maker - Bobby Ryan).

 

[Do Make Say Think]

The value question is devoid of context here. Trading prospects and picks for a 27 year old headed for free agency became the opposite of the kind of trade the Sens should have been making about two weeks later.

It's like buying a Porsche and thinking the financing is good... but you get laid off a week later.

From the Avalanche perspective: say Girard being what he is alone would be great salvage value for a player of Duchene forcing his way out. Girard plus Bowers or Kamenev turning into a 3rd liner would be even value for Duchene. Anything in addition to that it becomes a win, and that 1st is house money.

I am of the belief all three GMs are still very happy with the trade.

Getting a top line C via trade is very difficult. We paid a lot but we got one. I was just pointing out that we managed to hold on to our best prospects as a nice bonus for Ottawa.

 

[Halla]

They had just been to the ECF a handful of months prior. They weren't planning on having to rebuild/retool. They we're looking to add to what they thought was a contending team.

yes, they overachieved and went on a nice run.
they still could have waited until the deadline, then realized they were a lotto team and gotten the assets for tussir and not give up a haul for duchene.

how bad does it look if ottawa gives up pick 1 next year? bye bye jack hughes

 

[Hasbro]

I am of the belief all three GMs are still very happy with the trade.

Getting a top line C via trade is very difficult. We paid a lot but we got one. I was just pointing out that we managed to hold on to our best prospects as a nice bonus for Ottawa.

I can't imagine Dorian is in general a happy guy about now. His career mortality is staring in the face, he's been put in charge of slashing the budget and his best player wants out.

Are you telling me you wouldn't rather the Senators still have the 1st, 3rd and Bowers and have just straight traded Turris to Nashville than Duchene?

 

[Do Make Say Think]

I can't imagine Dorian is in general a happy guy about now. His career mortality is staring in the face, he's been put in charge of slashing the budget and his best player wants out.

Are you telling me you wouldn't rather the Senators still have the 1st, 3rd and Bowers and have just straight traded Turris to Nashville than Duchene?

Our depth at C would be abysmal if that is what happened.

We have a top line C instead.

Yeah, I remain ok with what went down.

We got beat on the river, it happens.

 

[MonsterMack]

But where are you getting the Matt Duchene on the trade block prior to his trade request from? You seem to be pulling that from nothing. I can't find any clipings or articles or tweets on this. There's nothing.

I don't have any saved link for you, but I distinctly remember Duchene in a video interview after the trade saying he had been shopped around for a while (I don't remember how long) before he formally asked for a trade. I remember it being common knowledge on the Avs board.

 

[Joe Sakic]

I don't have any saved link for you, but I distinctly remember Duchene in a video interview after the trade saying he had been shopped around for a while (I don't remember how long) before he formally asked for a trade. I remember it being common knowledge on the Avs board.

Ok. It's just weird I'm not able to find anything on that. Video or article.

 

[Patagonia]

Our depth at C would be abysmal if that is what happened.

We have a top line C instead.

Yeah, I remain ok with what went down.

We got beat on the river, it happens.

Sens did not expect to have the epic collapse and assumed they can get the best available 1C early rather than overpaying. Sens should have just flipped Turris directly to the Preds, instead they lazily allowed the AVs to control the deal.

I might support the AVs and agree, the Sens overpaid. The collapse made the deal much worse than originally intended. Protected their core prospects. Got the 1C they desperately needed. Protected their 1st round pick until next year.

Still an idiotic trade, but they have next season to regroup. If they decide to move Duchene, the going UFA return is at least a 1st + 4th round picks.

 

[Hellraising Senator]

I'd bet $100 to anyone that sens don't pick top ten next year. This trade is nowhere near as bad as people make it to be. Sens are an easy target for people. Melnyk doesn't help the case and really makes things worse then the team itself.

There are issues behind the scenes that many simply don't know and it bleeds to the performance on the ice. For a number of reasons.

But there is some serious prospect depth that is under appreciated and is normal for this team. Hoffman Stone both guys people laughed about coming up.

So I don't worry what the masses say...their is a saying..masses are....fill in your own blank.

But next year won't be the bottom feeding team you see. Cup contenders, no, but playoffs are likely.

Flame away.

 

[ConnorMcNugesaitl]

This was always going to be a terrible deal for the Sens. For some reason they chose to greatly overpay for a very small upgrade rather than just sign Turris.

Make no mistake this was a bad trade made worse by circumstances not a good trade made bad by the team bottoming out.

In the end the Predators benefited paying basically nothing for a very good player and signed him to a very good contract.

Funny how good fortune finds the good managers and bad fortune finds the bad ones. Almost like running a quality program leaves them in position to take advantage of opportunities like this instead of chasing their tail and making poor decisions like some managers out there.

 

[Patagonia]

I'd bet $100 to anyone that sens don't pick top ten next year. This trade is nowhere near as bad as people make it to be. Sens are an easy target for people. Melnyk doesn't help the case and really makes things worse then the team itself.

There are issues behind the scenes that many simply don't know and it bleeds to the performance on the ice. For a number of reasons.

But there is some serious prospect depth that is under appreciated and is normal for this team. Hoffman Stone both guys people laughed about coming up.

So I don't worry what the masses say...their is a saying..masses are....fill in your own blank.

But next year won't be the bottom feeding team you see. Cup contenders, no, but playoffs are likely.

Flame away.

Sens could improve if they decide to keep EK and Duchene, but risk losing them to UFA. They can offer ice time to the rookies, but this would hinder the ability to be competitive improving the lottery pick.

This was a bad trade that gets increasingly worse.

 

[Gil Gunderson]

yes, they overachieved and went on a nice run.
they still could have waited until the deadline, then realized they were a lotto team and gotten the assets for tussir and not give up a haul for duchene.

how bad does it look if ottawa gives up pick 1 next year? bye bye jack hughes

I mean, I’m scared about that pick next year as well, but 31st has 18.5% chance.

We didn’t give up Hughes just yet.

 

[Halla]

I mean, I’m scared about that pick next year as well, but 31st has 18.5% chance.

We didn’t give up Hughes just yet.

maybe not hughes, maybe just ryan suzuki or alex turcotte.

i dont think there is any way to swing duchene for lotto pick + bowers + 3rd + lost return on turris (girard,kamenev,2nd) as a good thing

 

[Spectra]

What's the deadline for him signing an extension? Given the history of the owner, I'll bet he'll be traded for futures if he's still not extended before opening night of the 2018/19 season.

 

[Patagonia]

What's the deadline for him signing an extension? Given the history of the owner, I'll bet he'll be traded for futures if he's still not extended before opening night of the 2018/19 season.

To extend a contract has to be July o1st of the final season.

Duchene and EK. July 01st, 2018.

 

[cgf]

Of course there are many reasons Roy resigned. But where are you getting the Matt Duchene on the trade block prior to his trade request from? You seem to be pulling that from nothing. I can't find any clipings or articles or tweets on this. There's nothing.

Based on what I heard Roy wanted to move Duchene for Chabot+Zibby when he still could've signed Radulov from the KHL with the money being opened up by that and the other trade he had worked out. And Radu came over to the KHL more than half a year before Duchene made his request around the Holidays...the Duchene part of which has made it to the public since we first heard about it, so on that part it's not just what I've been told.

That's where I'm getting Duchene being shopped before his request. Joe may not have pulled the trigger and been shopping him after Patrick walked, but Patrick tried to trade him before leaving & Sakic kept kicking the tires on those talks.

I'm saying he wanted to trade Barrie, not that he didn't want to play him. Putting him on the bottom pairing would destroy his trade value as well.

I get that as an explanation for why Roy kept giving Barrie big minutes. What I'm asking is why did Patrick ever play Barrie enough for him to have built up enough trade value for us to worry about destroying it, if he really never thought Barrie was anything more than a bottom pairing D in the first place? Why did he give him massive minutes before he had any trade value to worry about? He couldn't have been trying to pump up Barrie's trade value since Tyson's rookie season, could he?

Would love to see some evidence on this. RL or TMV please feel free to chime in as well.

All media reports, articles, and tweets point towards Roy not liking Barrie as a player. I hold that in higher regard than a few PMs on a hockey message board. However, if I see these messages from somebody and they are able to provide any proof of having insider info or connections with the Avs in anyway whatsoever I will gladly clamp my mouth shut. We've been on this board long enough to know how much random garbage gets spewed around on here with nothing backing it up.

And there won't be any proper "evidence" of this until we get better local press to someday pull it out of the organization, cause I'm not about to start posting the messages I got...if I could even still find them after all the trade talks I've had in the mock offseason we're doing ...as, I have to assume that, keeping my mouth shut about the details of these things until the folks who told them to me mention them, is part of why I kept getting those details during the Roykic explosion, Duchene-saga & ROR-saga before that and why those posters responded to my questions.

I know RL can confirm hearing similar stuff about the Roykic fallout, as I remember PMing with him about that, but I don't think you'll get the kind of "evidence" you're looking for out of him either *shrug*

 

[TheBradyBunch]

What's the deadline for him signing an extension? Given the history of the owner, I'll bet he'll be traded for futures if he's still not extended before opening night of the 2018/19 season.

Accidental post

I guess I'll put something here, though - the Sens have not done what you are describing since the Martin Havlat trade, iirc, and that was pure managerial incompetence on the part of Muckler. Nothing to do with the owner.

 

[Spectra]

To extend a contract has to be July o1st of the final season.

Duchene and EK. July 01st, 2018.

Correct. To clarify, I know when he can be extended, but when is the deadline for OTT? Are they willing to go into next season without an extension?

 

[Patagonia]

Based on what I heard Roy wanted to move Duchene for Chabot+Zibby when he still could've signed Radulov from the KHL with the money being opened up by that and the other trade he had worked out. And Radu came over to the KHL more than half a year before Duchene made his request around the Holidays...the Duchene part of which has made it to the public since we first heard about it, so on that part it's not just what I've been told.

That's where I'm getting Duchene being shopped before his request. Joe may not have pulled the trigger and been shopping him after Patrick walked, but Patrick tried to trade him before leaving & Sakic kept kicking the tires on those talks.



I get that as an explanation for why Roy kept giving Barrie big minutes. What I'm asking is why did Patrick ever play Barrie enough for him to have built up enough trade value for us to worry about destroying it, if he really never thought Barrie was anything more than a bottom pairing D in the first place? Why did he give him massive minutes before he had any trade value to worry about? He couldn't have been trying to pump up Barrie's trade value since Tyson's rookie season, could he?



And there won't be any proper "evidence" of this until we get better local press to someday pull it out of the organization, cause I'm not about to start posting the messages I got...if I could even still find them after all the trade talks I've had in the mock offseason we're doing ...as, I have to assume that, keeping my mouth shut about the details of these things until the folks who told them to me mention them, is part of why I kept getting those details during the Roykic explosion, Duchene-saga & ROR-saga before that and why those posters responded to my questions.

I know RL can confirm hearing similar stuff about the Roykic fallout, as I remember PMing with him about that, but I don't think you'll get the kind of "evidence" you're looking for out of him either *shrug*

There has been multiple rumours on Duchene:

Hanifin (1 for 1) contract length was the problem.
Girard/Kamenev/1st - Sakic wanted more
Galy/2nd/2nd - Sakic wanted more
Hamonic/1st - need RHD

With so many rumours absolutely Duchene was on the market. Sens will have the chance to either extend or revisit the Duchene trade circus, so this is not over just yet.

 

[Joe Sakic]

Based on what I heard Roy wanted to move Duchene for Chabot+Zibby when he still could've signed Radulov from the KHL with the money being opened up by that and the other trade he had worked out. And Radu came over to the KHL more than half a year before Duchene made his request around the Holidays...the Duchene part of which has made it to the public since we first heard about it, so on that part it's not just what I've been told.

That's where I'm getting Duchene being shopped before his request. Joe may not have pulled the trigger and been shopping him after Patrick walked, but Patrick tried to trade him before leaving & Sakic kept kicking the tires on those talks.

I remember Roy distinctly saying he was interested in Radulov so I'm with you there.

I'm just not buying the Duchene stuff. Why am I supposed to believe the word of a random poster on a hockey message board?

I mean I guess just hit me with the "don't believe me if you don't want to" but why would anybody? It's so random with nothing backing it. Not trying to be offensive but you can hopefully see why that's difficult. So many "rumors" get spread on this board when they are simply infact just the opinion of somebody or a few people and they have no substantial backing.

I get that as an explanation for why Roy kept giving Barrie big minutes. What I'm asking is why did Patrick ever play Barrie enough for him to have built up enough trade value for us to worry about destroying it, if he really never thought Barrie was anything more than a bottom pairing D in the first place? Why did he give him massive minutes before he had any trade value to worry about? He couldn't have been trying to pump up Barrie's trade value since Tyson's rookie season, could he?

It's important to remember what other defenseman Roy had at his disposal at the time. None of which are better than Tyson Barrie. Based on what we know Roy favored big, strong, tough defenseman. Barrie is an offensive minded defenseman.
He would build up his trade value to trade him. I believe he thought Barrie was a good player, he just didn't see him as a top pairing guy. He also wasn't a "Roy" type of player. But I'm just guessing. We may never know completely why Roy didn't see him as a top pairing guy.

And there won't be any proper "evidence" of this until we get better local press to someday pull it out of the organization, cause I'm not about to start posting the messages I got...if I could even still find them after all the trade talks I've had in the mock offseason we're doing ...as, I have to assume that, keeping my mouth shut about the details of these things until the folks who told them to me mention them, is part of why I kept getting those details during the Roykic explosion, Duchene-saga & ROR-saga before that and why those posters responded to my questions.

I know RL can confirm hearing similar stuff about the Roykic fallout, as I remember PMing with him about that, but I don't think you'll get the kind of "evidence" you're looking for out of him either *shrug*

I'm not necessarily looking for information on the Roykic fallout. Just where you're getting the "Duchene on the trade block prior to his own trade request" and the "Roy liked Barrie and didn't want to trade him" stuff.

It's fine if you don't want to post that stuff. I get it. It's somewhat confidential stuff if it does indeed exist. But you can see why I'm skeptical I hope. I have a guy saying he's basing information off of insider information that he won't share. Meanwhile there is absolutely nothing posted by any media whatsoever about these things. You say you trust the info you have over the media but you won't post or PM me any of this. It seems made up.

 

[cgf]

[snip]

I guess you weren't around when the Chabot + Zibanejad stuff was discussed on our board and others posted that they had heard it to, as I wasn't even the one to bring it up first. So if you don't believe that trade was almost made, and that Joe nix'ing it was a big part of the collapse of the Roykic relationship, there's no evidence that Duchene was almost traded before his request *shrug*

 

[Hasbro]

maybe not hughes, maybe just ryan suzuki or alex turcotte.

i dont think there is any way to swing duchene for lotto pick + bowers + 3rd + lost return on turris (girard,kamenev,2nd) as a good thing

Hell if that pick were the 11th this years Avs fans would be laughing all the way to the bank.

This has the potential to turn into a mini-Lindros.

 

[Silencio]

After seeing Turris' (injury free) performance down the stretch and in the playoffs this year I have no idea how people can keep claiming Duchene is only a "minor upgrade". That 6x6 deal could look Bobby Ryan level bad real fast.

 

[Eltuna]

After seeing Turris' (injury free) performance down the stretch and in the playoffs this year I have no idea how people can keep claiming Duchene is only a "minor upgrade". That 6x6 deal could look Bobby Ryan level bad real fast.

Turris looked pretty bad these playoffs no doubt, i was surprised how invisible he looked in the avs series. I’d give him another season though, he’s been pretty consistent for awhile now with his production. If he continues his poor play though it could look pretty bad for Nashville, as Girard has looked really good early on.

To be fair, most people pegged Duchene as a 5-10 point upgrade on Turris, which is exactly what happened this year. Duchene also has averaged 55 points his last 4 years (over 300 games). Usually forwards don’t increase their production after age 28 so it might be fair to say Duchene is just a 50-60 point player now, which isnt good enough in my opinion if Ottawa wants to win this trade. With Duchene it’s strange, he looks better than his stats show and always has, after 4 seasons of playing at a 55 point pace though it might be time to call a spade a spade. The good thing about Duchene is that I think he will age well, so even if he’s only a 50 point player now, he should be one for awhile.