Duchene or MacKinnon

[Duchene2MacKinnon]

I don't necessarily think he's Sakic 2.0. You seem to be really fixated on this. Everyone knows prospects sometimes fall short. While this "bird in the hand is worth more than one in the bush" , that you default to is safe, it's also lazy.

When people point out that they're just prospects and they can fall short of comparisons and projections, they're also pointing out the very reason they could exceed expectations.

I'm pretty sure the Bulls are ecstatic that Portland thought Jordan was Drexler 2.0 at best.

What would you call Stamkos and Toews rolled into one?

Name one 1st overall player that exceeded expectations? I'll save you the time, you can't.

Oh good now we're hoping he becomes the Jordan of hockey, that worked out great for Lecavalier.

 

[tucker3434]

I went with mackinnon. I think duchene will be great and mackinnon will be elite. I'd expect duchene to be about a ppg guy in his prime and Mack to be a 100 point player.

It would also not surprise me for duchene to blow up this year and put up 80+ now. That'd send my prediction to hell.

 

[cgf]

I see both in the 80-90 point range with really strong two way games in their primes. Dutchy a little more playmaking, Mac a little more goals, but if Mac is putting up 40+, dutchy will be putting up 35+ so the gap won't be too huge in either area.

I really don't think we could have two more similar top end centers moving forward since which hand they shoot with is the biggest difference between the two of them.

 

[avsfan89]

I went with mackinnon. I think duchene will be great and mackinnon will be elite. I'd expect duchene to be about a ppg guy in his prime and Mack to be a 100 point player.

It would also not surprise me for duchene to blow up this year and put up 80+ now. That'd send my prediction to hell.

i really doubt mac hits 100 points, maybe 90 tops. This is the west, not east lol

 

[henchman21]

Duchene easily. MacKinnon is unproven in the NHL. He has more pure talent than Duchene at the same age, but Duchene is way more proven right now. MacKinnon could just as easily end up the next Stefan as he could the next Stamkos.

 

[Averick*]

What would you call Stamkos and Toews rolled into one?

Name one 1st overall player that exceeded expectations? I'll save you the time, you can't.

Oh good now we're hoping he becomes the Jordan of hockey, that worked out great for Lecavalier.

Like I said, you rely on sarcasm and distortion. Once in a while you throw in an "LOL" to act dismissive.

As with your interventionist pessimism, all of its easy. It doesn't take much to make these kind of responses. To be honest, some it's dated.

 

[Averick*]

Duchene easily. MacKinnon is unproven in the NHL. He has more pure talent than Duchene at the same age, but Duchene is way more proven right now. MacKinnon could just as easily end up the next Stefan as he could the next Stamkos.

See posts13 and 39.

 

[Mr Serious]

See posts13 and 39.

To him proven ability is more important than potential.

I think just about everyone can agree that MacKinnon's potential > Duchene's potential. It's going to come down to their ability to translate it in the NHL.

 

[henchman21]

To him proven ability is more important than potential.

I think just about everyone can agree that MacKinnon's potential > Duchene's potential. It's going to come down to their ability to translate it in the NHL.

Bingo!

We have an idea of what Duchene is and will be. Right now he is a 25-30g 65-75p center with decent 2 way ability. He can probably grow a bit beyond that to become a ~PPG player at some point in the near future.

MacKinnon has ~40g ~90p potential IMO, but he hasn't played a second in the NHL to show that he will translate. There are a lot of players with huge upside in every draft that fail. Filatov was seen as a can't miss first line player... busted right out of the league. Gudbranson was a can't miss top pairing defensemen that was very close to NHL, and he has struggled so far (still way to early to write him off). JVR game changing top line PF, just a solid top 6 wing. Turris was a lock to be a #1C... hasn't happened. EJ was the next Pronger and best defensive prospect to come into the NHL since, and we all know his story. Point being until MacKinnon has shown his abilities at a NHL level, it is impossible to say that he will be able to translate his game.

 

[Duchene2MacKinnon]

Like I said, you rely on sarcasm and distortion. Once in a while you throw in an "LOL" to act dismissive.

As with your interventionist pessimism, all of its easy. It doesn't take much to make these kind of responses. To be honest, some it's dated.

You can criticize the way I post all you like, I'm not going to change if you don't like what I post or how I post the ignore button is right there.

Calling Mackinnon a 1st line ppg potential player is not being pessimistic it's called being REALISTIC.

 

[Freudian]

I'm not sure there is a single thing Duchene did better as a 17 year old than MacKinnon does. Picking Duchene must mean you either believe Duchene has developed exceptionally well (which he hasn't) or MacKinnon won't develop properly (unlikely given his skill set and drive).

 

[henchman21]

For the first two years of their careers Duchene and Tavares was a legitimate debate. Exclude the one season of poor play from Duchene, and that debate is still legitimately there (Tavares is still better IMO). Duchene had 43 points in 47 games on a worse team in the west and Tavares had 47 points in 48 games.... those numbers are pretty close. I'm in the boat that the west is significantly harder to get points in than the east.

People saying MacKinnon is automatically going to be a better player are basically saying MacKinnon will be as good as Tavares or better.

 

[Alex Jones]

Bingo!

We have an idea of what Duchene is and will be. Right now he is a 25-30g 65-75p center with decent 2 way ability. He can probably grow a bit beyond that to become a ~PPG player at some point in the near future.

MacKinnon has ~40g ~90p potential IMO, but he hasn't played a second in the NHL to show that he will translate. There are a lot of players with huge upside in every draft that fail. Filatov was seen as a can't miss first line player... busted right out of the league. Gudbranson was a can't miss top pairing defensemen that was very close to NHL, and he has struggled so far (still way to early to write him off). JVR game changing top line PF, just a solid top 6 wing. Turris was a lock to be a #1C... hasn't happened. EJ was the next Pronger and best defensive prospect to come into the NHL since, and we all know his story. Point being until MacKinnon has shown his abilities at a NHL level, it is impossible to say that he will be able to translate his game.

JVR will still be a game changing top line player. He is still learning how to use his size to the get to the net. His perimeter play is quite good, and his play around the net is quite good. He is still learning how to find shooting lanes, when and where to take it to the net, and how to become a complete player. It will happen.

 

[henchman21]

JVR will still be a game changing top line player. He is still learning how to use his size to the get to the net. His perimeter play is quite good, and his play around the net is quite good. He is still learning how to find shooting lanes, when and where to take it to the net, and how to become a complete player. It will happen.

I have my doubts... he might end up as a fringe top line player, but I don't see him being a long-term player there. Pacioretty >> JVR IMO

 

[Alex Jones]

Fun fact, every number one picked forward since 2000 has had multiple PPG seasons save for the last few players, those being Tavares, Hall, RNH, Yakupov. I would suspect every one of them will achieve that distinction as well, JT has two seasons with exactly one point below PPG, Hall has one season over PPG, and RNH and Yakupov will be there soon enough.

I think it's probably a pretty safe guess that MacKinnon will be at or close to a PPG player for at least some of his career.

 

[Alex Jones]

I have my doubts... he might end up as a fringe top line player, but I don't see him being a long-term player there. Pacioretty >> JVR IMO

I see all of the physical tools, and I see him growing in the areas that I have concerns with him about. (namely, settling for outside shots) Obviously there are some real questions about his game, but I do really believe he will be a great player someday.

 

[Colorado Avalanche]

Bingo!

We have an idea of what Duchene is and will be. Right now he is a 25-30g 65-75p center with decent 2 way ability. He can probably grow a bit beyond that to become a ~PPG player at some point in the near future.

MacKinnon has ~40g ~90p potential IMO, but he hasn't played a second in the NHL to show that he will translate. There are a lot of players with huge upside in every draft that fail. Filatov was seen as a can't miss first line player... busted right out of the league. Gudbranson was a can't miss top pairing defensemen that was very close to NHL, and he has struggled so far (still way to early to write him off). JVR game changing top line PF, just a solid top 6 wing. Turris was a lock to be a #1C... hasn't happened. EJ was the next Pronger and best defensive prospect to come into the NHL since, and we all know his story. Point being until MacKinnon has shown his abilities at a NHL level, it is impossible to say that he will be able to translate his game.

Duchene has potential for more. He had his true breakthrough last year, I think he will do better than 75 points in his prime.

 

[Lonewolfe2015]

So, anyone else at this point feel like some are more down on Duchene than are high on MacKinnon?

I understand the #1 overall pick stigma makes people think Mack will be huge... but given what we've seen of Duchene and my personal opinion on MacKinnon, I'd be really surprised if MacKinnon is better than Duchene.

 

[henchman21]

Duchene has potential for more. He had his true breakthrough last year, I think he will do better than 75 points in his prime.

The last sentence in bold agrees with you.

 

[tigervixxxen]

I don't see it as down on Duchene at all. Would it be fair to say he's more or less lived up to expectations with still the potential for more? If not, what were the expectations of Duchene when he was drafted? The best point raised is at the age of 17 MacKinnon was the better prospect. Obviously we don't know if MacK will live up to expectations but at this point I don't have any reason to think that he won't realize most of his potential. None of that is a negative against Duchene.

 

[Lonewolfe2015]

I don't see it as down on Duchene at all. Would it be fair to say he's more or less lived up to expectations with still the potential for more? If not, what were the expectations of Duchene when he was drafted? The best point raised is at the age of 17 MacKinnon was the better prospect. Obviously we don't know if MacK will live up to expectations but at this point I don't have any reason to think that he won't realize most of his potential. None of that is a negative against Duchene.

Fair point, but I'm going to be honest. When I saw O'Reilly his rookie year I had higher expectations for him going forward than Duchene. He's still got room to fill out offensively, not many recognize the fact that every single season he has improved himself in some offensive facet. Year two he developed a booming slapshot, Year three he developed accuracy with his shot, Year four he developed poise with the puck.

MacKinnon my expectations are he better be a P/G forward, but I think Drouin will be better and I think Duchene's season last year could be a level of play MacKinnon might be fortunate to reach.

I don't want to look stupid going forward making this projections, but I'm just not sold on the potential people here have already cashed in on.

 

[Duchene2MacKinnon]

Fun fact, every number one picked forward since 2000 has had multiple PPG seasons save for the last few players, those being Tavares, Hall, RNH, Yakupov. I would suspect every one of them will achieve that distinction as well, JT has two seasons with exactly one point below PPG, Hall has one season over PPG, and RNH and Yakupov will be there soon enough.

I think it's probably a pretty safe guess that MacKinnon will be at or close to a PPG player for at least some of his career.

Rick Nash and Kane(unless, you count Kane's on pace for)

 

[ANewHope]

Fair point, but I'm going to be honest. When I saw O'Reilly his rookie year I had higher expectations for him going forward than Duchene. He's still got room to fill out offensively, not many recognize the fact that every single season he has improved himself in some offensive facet. Year two he developed a booming slapshot, Year three he developed accuracy with his shot, Year four he developed poise with the puck.

MacKinnon my expectations are he better be a P/G forward, but I think Drouin will be better and I think Duchene's season last year could be a level of play MacKinnon might be fortunate to reach.

I don't want to look stupid going forward making this projections, but I'm just not sold on the potential people here have already cashed in on.

First off I want to say I'm not down on Duchene. I think he'll have some PPG seasons and will hover around 65-85 depending on linemates/injuries/league scoring etc. Nowadays 85 points feels like 95 IMO. Mackinnon to me has the potential to be a consistent PPG player with top 5 finishes in goals, if not a rocket in his future. Duchene is already a good player with potential to be great. Mackinnon has elite potential. A guy who down the line is argued with the best forwards from season to season. Obviously not Crosby but guys like Stammer, Toews, Tavares. Besides maybe a season or two I see Duchene topping out as the guy in that next tier.

Just depends on how confident you are in Mack's potential. You take Duchene now without hesitation but a conversation about the future? It's interesting. It's 2013, #1 elite prospects are pretty safe. Esp somebody like Mac who's been on the scene for how long? Look at that one HF thread. A guy pimping out Mac in 2008!

I posted this in the draft thread awhile back but I'm kinda curious to see how others view him. How I view him...

Elite Skating. Scouts have said he has the best 3 steps they might have seen. Compares to Duchene in this area but I recall videos where NHL scouts dropped Bure before.

Great release/power/accuracy on his shot. Where he blows away Duchene at 17. At 17 Mackinnon has a better shot than a 22 year old Duchene. He'll be in consideration for the best shot on the team next year as a rookie probably.

Great hockey sense. Better than Duchenes at 18 IMO, that along with the shot is the separation for me. With that being said, he doesn't posses elite hockey IQ. It's not Drouin, Crosby, Tavares etc. and really what stopped him from being a generational talent and had him fighting with Jones for #1 all year. Closer to a Taylor Hall here than a RNH.

Very good hands, playmaking ability, stick work, creativity etc. I wouldn't argue if somebody said Duchene was better at 18 here. Certainly more aesthetically pleasing in my eyes. Mackinnon certainly doesn't lack in those areas and something I think was being overlooked with him considering how great Drouin was in those areas.

The fact that he's been in the spotlight for ever, has great drive and work ethic and gives 110% on the ice make me feel confident he can reach his potential, which most would agree projects to a special player in this league. He's always just seemed like a really willing player.

It's really not that insane. Crosby/Tavares had a pretty big hype train but Stamkos? He was took 1st overall but some people would have been like OMG SHINY NEW TOY if you said he would score 51 goals his 2nd season in the NHL. While new is deff better for some people, more important to look at each individual rather than just assume people are hyped soley for the fact it's new and fresher.

 

[Lonewolfe2015]

Bumps, in a month this will be locked in for looking back on with curiosity. I'm still amazed at how many people voted MacKinnon and it would be something else if it became true.

 

[Puckstop40]

Duchene! Haters