Friedman: Duchene Mega-Thread Pt. 1 - Ottawa fielding offers, NSH & CBJ interested; Duchene sitting

[danielpalfredsson]

Yeah, because Melnyk and Dorion have proven in the past that they put Sens fans first...

No, but they've proven to be very adverse to trading within the division, let alone to one of their most disliked rivals.

But both players are individually worth more due to contract situation and other factors.



Yeah, remember what happened with Hoffman? I think Doorman learned his lesson. You take the best deal available, it doesn't matter where it's coming from.

A signed Duchene is not at risk to be flipped like Hoffman was. That makes no sense.

We can only operate on what we know to be true based on past events. We know the Senators for whatever reason prioritize trading outside of their division as recently as earlier this season. Nothing has happened to make us think otherwise.

I am not saying Duchene is worth Kotkaniemi+++. I am saying that a trade with Montreal makes no sense because similar to Buffalo with O'Reilly, the Senators would want an overpayment to deal a signed Duchene to Montreal, and that makes the price for Montreal non-nonsensical, so it won't happen.

 

[Karl Eriksson]

Trade Duchene and Stone to Sharks. Make them all the sens could have been.

 

[A Loyal Dog]

If Duchene goes to Montreal signed, it's going to take a package headlined either by Kotkaniemi, or Drouin.

 

[BatVader]

No, but they've proven to be very adverse to trading within the division...........

Completely agree with this.
I fully expect any trade involving these players to include the Dorion clause.... conditional pick payable if player traded to eastern team.

 

[TheBuriedHab]

Yeah I can see the habs offering a package kinda close to maybe what the preds would offer Like a 1st, Suzuki and Lehkonen for a signed Duchene, but if the offers are at all close he will not get traded to the habs.

 

[triggrman]

I think the hold up is getting the extensions agreed to by the players. I don't think either Stone or Duchene are on board with getting extensions in place before the trades. I think this is lowering the value dramatically which is making Ottawa balk at offers.

No team wants to give up tons of value for 2 month rentals.

 

[BatVader]

I think the hold up is getting the extensions agreed to by the players. I don't think either Stone or Duchene are on board with getting extensions in place before the trades. I think this is lowering the value dramatically which is making Ottawa balk at offers.

No team wants to give up tons of value for 2 month rentals.

I think, if it’s with Nashville, Duchene extends happily.
Stone I think wants to test the market.
But reports are Ottawa hasn’t been allowing teams to talk to the players about extensions.

 

[Armourboy]

I think, if it’s with Nashville, Duchene extends happily.
Stone I think wants to test the market.
But reports are Ottawa hasn’t been allowing teams to talk to the players about extensions.

That would be the snag then. Poile is not making a trade unless he has a deal in place, and frankly Dorion is stupid if he isnt allowing it because he is just tanking their value.

Because I'm betting Tolvanen is off the table for just a rental.

 

[Pile]

I think, if it’s with Nashville, Duchene extends happily.
Stone I think wants to test the market.
But reports are Ottawa hasn’t been allowing teams to talk to the players about extensions.

So shooting themselves in the foot?

Sounds about right.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

Yes, it's easy to cut off the entire context of a post to make it sound delusional...

That was followed by...

"...For that reason, I doubt it happens. I don't see why MTL pays that much, and I don't see why Ottawa trades Duchene to a division rival who are hated by their fan base for anything less than the above players headlining a package deal that also contains a 1st and another piece."

 

[Benstheman]

People seems to miss the most important point here. Dorion will get the better package if Duchene accepte to sign an extension with the team he is being traded.

So knowing that, it all depends on the teams Duchene would accept a deal to. It is kind of becoming a modified ntc for him.

Also, you need to find a team that wants to pay him what he wants.

At the end of the day, you might only get 1 or 2 teams that meet the conditions.

IMO, Habs and Isles might be the two teams batteling for him as a rental with extension. Nashville might be out because of front loaded contract with big bonuses and I don’t think Columbus is that attractive to Duchene.

 

[Mackiaveli]

A signed Duchene is not at risk to be flipped like Hoffman was. That makes no sense.

What teams, reasonably speaking, can afford both in assets, and in cap space, to trade for Matt Duchene on an extended deal? Of those teams, who actually would want to expend the assets?

Nashville - Will have to clear space to do it long term thanks to Josi needing an extension in 2020. They likely can't afford to frontload the contract in signing bonuses
Montreal - Divisional Rival
Kings - Doubt Duchene wants to go back to a bottom feeder - likely wouldn't want to pay the premium to acquire him.
Jackets - Likely wouldn't want to pay the premium to acquire him. Can't afford to frontload the contract
Carolina - Most likely destination outside of Montreal, in my opinion.
Islanders - Also makes a good bit of sense, but not sure they will want to give up their young assets

 

[Armourboy]

What teams, reasonably speaking, can afford both in assets, and in cap space, to trade for Matt Duchene on an extended deal? Of those teams, who actually would want to expend the assets?

Nashville - Will have to clear space to do it long term thanks to Josi needing an extension in 2020. They likely can't afford to frontload the contract in signing bonuses
Montreal - Divisional Rival
Kings - Doubt Duchene wants to go back to a bottom feeder - likely wouldn't want to pay the premium to acquire him.
Jackets - Likely wouldn't want to pay the premium to acquire him. Can't afford to frontload the contract
Carolina - Most likely destination outside of Montreal, in my opinion.
Islanders - Also makes a good bit of sense, but not sure they will want to give up their young assets

Wouldn't be that hard to do. Poile doesn't like the bonus thing, but the bigger issue is probably a NTC which Poile won't do, at least not without Duchene accepting something silly like 6 million a season.

Also affording things hasn't been an issue for Nashville in a long time. Poile just doesn't like to structure things that way.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Nashville almost never gives out NTCs or flagrant signing bonuses. I can imagine this might be a problem when it comes to signing Duchene who is likely expecting a bonus heavy deal with a NMC.

Yeah, Duchene has put up a season where he could expect to ca$h in on the UFA market. Preds will want him. But I don't see them upsetting their meticulously-structured payroll to accommodate him. He'd have to WANT to be a Predator. And basically accept the identical contract to Ryan Johansen. Which is still a very good contract. On a contender in a low-tax state. But still not what he could probably max out to on the open market in July. It'll be up to him to decide what matters most to him.

 

[Mike Mike Caron]

Duchene childhood dream is to play for the Habs. Our only hope is that he refuses to sign an extention with everyone but us, so we can lowball Dorion.

 

[Soundgarden]

What if Duchene is willing to sign both in Nashville and Montreal. If the Habs move in and offer Suzuki, 1st, and Lehkonen. Do the Preds up their offer and include Fiala?

- Suzuki vs Tolvanen: It's close one way or another.

- Habs 1st (15-20 range) vs Preds 1st (20-25 range): Edge to Habs

- Lehkonen vs ???: Do the Preds include Fiala?

* Preds have a tax advantage. $8M in Nashville = $10M in Montreal
* Habs have a bonus money in July advantage. Do the Preds offer the same? Not sure.

No.

 

[Habs Halifax]

No.

Sounds like it's a popular no within the Preds fan base.

 

[preds1]

Sounds like it's a popular no within the Preds fan base.

Correct.

 

[Armourboy]

Duchene childhood dream is to play for the Habs. Our only hope is that he refuses to sign an extention with everyone but us, so we can lowball Dorion.

Don't hold your breath on that one.

 

[Sam Spade]

 

[Agalloch]

Duchene to Columbus ! (my guess)

 

[Mike Mike Caron]

Don't hold your breath on that one.

It's our only hope.

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

What teams, reasonably speaking, can afford both in assets, and in cap space, to trade for Matt Duchene on an extended deal? Of those teams, who actually would want to expend the assets?

Nashville - Will have to clear space to do it long term thanks to Josi needing an extension in 2020. They likely can't afford to frontload the contract in signing bonuses
Montreal - Divisional Rival
Kings - Doubt Duchene wants to go back to a bottom feeder - likely wouldn't want to pay the premium to acquire him.
Jackets - Likely wouldn't want to pay the premium to acquire him. Can't afford to frontload the contract
Carolina - Most likely destination outside of Montreal, in my opinion.
Islanders - Also makes a good bit of sense, but not sure they will want to give up their young assets

Won't be an issue. Preds probably need to trade one of the top 4 D (likely Subban or Ellis) prior to expansion draft anyway and that salary easily covers a Josi raise. If the Cap raises at all in the intervening years even that won't be needed (in terms of cap management, at least).

 

[Karl Eriksson]

I'd want 10 assets for Stone and Duchene.

 

[IslandersFan17]

Duchene heading to Columbus it looks like