Duchene is merely a 55 to 60 point 2nd line center. He won't fetch even close to what a first liner like Hall did.
I've tried to stay out of this thread because it seems to follow the typical pattern. Avs fans are probably expecting too much and fans of other teams are trying to minimize Duchene as a player. It is like a virtual negotiation in which fans expect that whatever is decided on these boards will have some impact on GMs.
Nevertheless, I will point out that Duchene has the following credentials to his credit:
(1) Former No. 3 pick overall, Calder Trophy finalist (3rd overall in voting) and named to All-Rookie team (2010).
(2) Two time NHL All-Star game participant (2011, 2016).
(3) 5 time 20+ goal scorer at NHL level, probably will be accomplishing that for a 6th time this season.
(4) Member of Canada's international teams that won gold at 2014 Winter Olympics, 2015 and 2016 World Championships, and 2016 World Cup.
(5) He has emerged as one of the best faceoff guys in the NHL. He placed third overall in faceoff percentage in the 2015-2016 season at 57.9 percent behind only Jonathon Toews and Ryan Kessler. At the moment in the 2016-2017 season, he ranks second in faceoff percentage at 61.1% behind only Antoine Vermette. He won 20 of 24 faceoffs against the Jets yesterday, in addition to adding three assists.
I've seen statements that he will fetch less than Taylor Hall, who is not a center, and Ryan Johansen. I believe that some of those arguments are tenuous.
Nevertheless, let's assume that he won't fetch as much as Hall or Johansen. Other posters are going as far as saying that he won't fetch as much ROR in trade either. This is despite the fact that ROR was notoriously difficult in negotiations and was one season away from UFA status at the time of his trade. ROR fetched a futures package, but it represented prospects and picks at the time as follows:
(1) Mikhail Grigorenko, who was three years removed from his draft year and a former first round pick (No. 12 overall).
(2) Nikita Zadorov, who was two years removed from his draft year and a former first round pick (No. 16 overall).
(3) JT Compher, who was two years removed from his draft year and the 35th pick overall (high second round).
(4) The 31st overall pick in the 2015 draft (first pick in the second round).
Now Jamie McGinn was also included in the trade to Buffalo, so let's just say for sake of argument that he consituted value equal to JT Compher (high second round pick). This is probably overstating McGinn's value at the time because he had missed almost the entire prior season due to back surgery attempting to correct a congenital spine condition that had affected him since his days in junior hockey. He was also only one season away from UFA status. His playing status was uncertain, and you could argue that McGinn represented additional value going to the Avs in terms of a cap dump (approximately $2.75 AAV and $3 million in actual dollars I believe).
So taking the least favorable view of the ROR return, he still fetched two recent mid-first round picks in terms of prospects and a an extremely high second round pick (arguably equivalent to a late first round draft pick).
Is this realistic to expect that Duchene will return less than Hall and Johansen in terms of a young player and less in terms of a futures package than ROR? It is more of a rhetorical question.
In any event, I think it is extremely unlikely that Duchene will be traded at the deadline, but rather at the draft if it happens. Big trade deadline moves are difficult, particularly with the added element of the expansion draft this season.
