Confirmed with Link: Dubnyk + 2022 7th to San Jose for 2022 5th (50% salary retained)

[tealzamboni]

I hope at the very least adding Dubynk allows Jones to improve his game. Given his workload over the past few seasons it seems that may have been leading to his poor play.

And if Nabby really believes Dubynk is the guy he wants to work with I'm willing to give the benefit of the doubt.

I'm hoping there might be a calming effect for the goalies. Both are needed, both once had success, and both are trying to rebound. Hopefully, a little bit of success from one rallies the other and they end up lifting each other to a decent level of play.

 

[LadyStanley]

Nice of Antti to give up his #

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

For anybody who still cares about Dubnyk, here's a deeper breakdown on why as his advanced stats look so terrible:

Building Venue-Adjusted RAPM for Expected Goals: The Origin, the Process and the Results (Part 1)

He still hasn't been a good goalie the past few years and I still would personally rather have re-signed Aaron Dell for whatever Toronto paid him. But Dubnyk isn't as bad as some of the advanced stats suggest.

 

[Cas]

For anybody who still cares about Dubnyk, here's a deeper breakdown on why as his advanced stats look so terrible:

Building Venue-Adjusted RAPM for Expected Goals: The Origin, the Process and the Results (Part 1)

He still hasn't been a good goalie the past few years and I still would personally rather have re-signed Aaron Dell for whatever Toronto paid him. But Dubnyk isn't as bad as some of the advanced stats suggest.

Assuming the Dubnyk and Donato trades were related, I guess what it comes down to is a comparison between these two scenarios for 20-21:

Devan Dubnyk
Ryan Donato
2022 seventh round draft pick (Minnesota)

or

Aaron Dell
2021 third round draft pick (Pittsburgh)
2022 fifth round draft pick (San Jose)
$3,266,667 more cap space

Now, if the Sharks were able to use that additional cap space to sign Smith, Toffoli, or Dadonov, I'd much rather have the second package, but the difference is primarily in the draft picks, rather than the on-ice product - you get a legitimate forward for somewhat higher cost than Donato will likely wind up incurring (unless he totally flunks), possibly a second inexpensive forward (for example, Namestnikov or Fast at $2 million - the actual player doesn't matter so much as the cost), and two mid-draft picks, and possibly a better backup goaltender.

On the other hand, it's possible that done of the better free agent forwards was interested in San Jose, and it wouldn't be worth paying for any of them to change their minds, I think. Donato looks like a decent forward who will likely cost less over the next three to four years (assume Donato has a pretty good season, say 0.5 PPG - what will he likely command as an RFA, maybe $2.5 million and possibly less with the pandemic hammering league finances?). If Donato works out, or Dubnyk is as good as Dell and at least acceptable (say .905 SV%), then this scenario probably works out fine, and if none of the good free agent forwards was interested in San Jose, this is probably about the best we could expect.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Assuming the Dubnyk and Donato trades were related, I guess what it comes down to is a comparison between these two scenarios for 20-21:

Devan Dubnyk
Ryan Donato
2022 seventh round draft pick (Minnesota)

or

Aaron Dell
2021 third round draft pick (Pittsburgh)
2022 fifth round draft pick (San Jose)
$3,266,667 more cap space

Now, if the Sharks were able to use that additional cap space to sign Smith, Toffoli, or Dadonov, I'd much rather have the second package, but the difference is primarily in the draft picks, rather than the on-ice product - you get a legitimate forward for somewhat higher cost than Donato will likely wind up incurring (unless he totally flunks), possibly a second inexpensive forward (for example, Namestnikov or Fast at $2 million - the actual player doesn't matter so much as the cost), and two mid-draft picks, and possibly a better backup goaltender.

On the other hand, it's possible that done of the better free agent forwards was interested in San Jose, and it wouldn't be worth paying for any of them to change their minds, I think. Donato looks like a decent forward who will likely cost less over the next three to four years (assume Donato has a pretty good season, say 0.5 PPG - what will he likely command as an RFA, maybe $2.5 million and possibly less with the pandemic hammering league finances?). If Donato works out, or Dubnyk is as good as Dell and at least acceptable (say .905 SV%), then this scenario probably works out fine, and if none of the good free agent forwards was interested in San Jose, this is probably about the best we could expect.

My evaluation is not assuming the trades are co-dependent. IMO, it is better not to make that assumption than it is to make it.

 

[Quid Pro Clowe]

His wife, while what ever happened is terrible, had nothing to do with him losing his job. He lost his job because he was terrible and Stalock was better.

He played 14 games before his wife fell ill and had an .890 save percentage. He played 15 games after and had an .888 save percentage. His obvious decline started 3 years ago. It's more likely that's just the quality of goaltender he is at this stage.

He had .923, .918 and .913 sv% the prior 3 seasons before last. His play is likely declining, but taking his past decade of play into consideration it's fair to give him another shot in another spot.

 

[Quid Pro Clowe]

For anybody who still cares about Dubnyk, here's a deeper breakdown on why as his advanced stats look so terrible:

Building Venue-Adjusted RAPM for Expected Goals: The Origin, the Process and the Results (Part 1)

He still hasn't been a good goalie the past few years and I still would personally rather have re-signed Aaron Dell for whatever Toronto paid him. But Dubnyk isn't as bad as some of the advanced stats suggest.

Dell doesn't even cover half the net. I feel better just knowing there isn't as much net to shoot at now.

With good team defense I think Dubnyk could be adequate. It will likely come down to team play for either of the goalies to be good.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Dell doesn't even cover half the net. I feel better just knowing there isn't as much net to shoot at now.

With good team defense I think Dubnyk could be adequate. It will likely come down to team play for either of the goalies to be good.

The other thing to note is that Dubnyk's cap figure makes it to where it's pretty much an even swap if they want to bury him for Melnichuk under the right circumstances.

 

[Doctor Soraluce]

He had .923, .918 and .913 sv% the prior 3 seasons before last. His play is likely declining, but taking his past decade of play into consideration it's fair to give him another shot in another spot.

Exactly. For a relatively cheap 1 year deal I would prefer to bet on this guy over Dell.