Dubas appreciation thread

[Randy Randerson]

It's interesting how Leafs don't have any "Bad" deals and yet the media and opposing fans could not stop the "Cap hell" narrative.

Another interesting thing will be seeing all these young stars in the next year demanding huge increases who took 3 year deals instead of the 6 Marner got.

I do think that Matthews & Marner are overpaid by comparison to their peers, Marner especially. Dubas is doing a good job of getting value elsewhere though to make up for it.

 

[RogerR]

I do think that Matthews & Marner are overpaid by comparison to their peers, Marner especially. Dubas is doing a good job of getting value elsewhere though to make up for it.

Are we comparing term though? Because those players on 2-3 year deals need a new contract soon.

Regardless though, you are correct, His savings on support players is the best in the NHL. That's why people were so flawed only to look at 4 contracts

 

[Randy Randerson]

Are we comparing term though? Because those players on 2-3 year deals need a new contract soon.

Regardless though, you are correct, His savings on support players is the best in the NHL. That's why people were so flawed only to look at 4 contracts

I think term makes the comparison look worse, because both guys' comparables took longer deals at less (inflation adjusted) money.

But if both of those guys retire as Leafs because they feel like they were treated well, then I guess Dubas's approach paid off. I'm absolutely sure Dubas knew that he was overpaying them compared to their most recent comps when he did it.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Rielly's 220lbs, and almost none of those guys will ever be able to skate or stickhandle or pass like he can.

And I doubt many of them ever score 20gls in a year like Mo did.

Call a spade a spade Rielly goes down like a lightweight on his skates when forechecked ... he is getting better at it but he is weakest defender on current team with maybe exception of Lehtonen who i don't know ... weight does not mean strength ... he is a great skater but he does it through his technique on edges which is near perfect but not strength ... if he had bow legs of Orr then he would be a total terror but he doesn't

 

[RogerR]

I think term makes the comparison look worse, because both guys' comparables took longer deals at less (inflation adjusted) money.

But if both of those guys retire as Leafs because they feel like they were treated well, then I guess Dubas's approach paid off. I'm absolutely sure Dubas knew that he was overpaying them compared to their most recent comps when he did it.

Will you think that when Laine and Point sign their new deals? Their cap hits are going way up
I was refeering to RFAss who signed the same year. Players don't take 8 year deals anymore. Marner signed for double, and triple the term as almost everyone else.

 

[Joey Hoser]

It's interesting how Leafs don't have any "Bad" deals and yet the media and opposing fans could not stop the "Cap hell" narrative.

Another interesting thing will be seeing all these young stars in the next year demanding huge increases who took 3 year deals instead of the 6 Marner got.

"Cap Hell" is when your team has a maxed out cap, is a bad team, and has boat anchor contracts that prevent you from addressing your needs and getting better. Cap hell is Buffalo paying Skinner 9 million to be healthy scratched for the next 6 years. Cap hell is Minnesota paying Zach Parise 7.5 until 2026 or whateverthef***.

Paying guys who are taking runs at Rockets, Art Ross and Hart trophies is what you WANT. The Leafs can trade anyone on their roster and get value back. They have complete flexibility. It's the literal opposite of cap hell.

 

[RogerR]

"Cap Hell" is when your team has a maxed out cap, is a bad team, and has boat anchor contracts that prevent you from addressing your needs. Cap hell is Buffalo paying Skinner 9 million to be healthy scratched for the next 6 years. Cap hell is Minnesota paying Zach Parise 7.5 until 2026 or whateverthef***.

Paying guys who are taking runs at Rockets, Art Ross and Hart trophies is what you WANT. The Leafs can trade anyone on their roster and get value back. They have complete flexibility.

Oh I agree. It's just funny Leafs have gotten by far most press about "Cap hell". I wouldn't even rank them top 5 in the North right now for cap concerns.

 

[AllDay28]

How are marner and Matthews contracts bad? Did you think they were gonna sign for 5m/year??

marner and matthews are 4/5 in points. Matthews is 1st in goals. I’m just thankful they didn’t ask for more ...

 

[RogerR]

How are marner and Matthews contracts bad? Did you think they were gonna sign for 5m/year??

marner and matthews are 4/5 in points. Matthews is 1st in goals. I’m just thankful they didn’t ask for more ...

It's great we have the locked-up. Pay your stars.

 

[Judas Tavares]

when I look at that roster I still feel like its missing the face of the franchise, I think they'll need some lottery luck still. Lots of depth of young talent though for sure. If they add a Shane Wright, then I completely agree.

They may have their face in Stutzle. But they took a big hit from not having their 4th overall from 2019.

 

[Randy Randerson]

They may have their face in Stutzle. But they took a big hit from not having their 4th overall from 2019.

I dont think Stutzle will be that caliber. Good player for sure, but I would be surprised if he's a Hart candidate type, probably something closer to between Marner and Nylander imo.

 

[hockeeyyy]

It's been over two years since Matthews signed his contract, and some people still don't understand just how valuable he is. Just about every metric to apply value to a player's worth suggests Matthews is the second or third most valuable contract in the NHL. His combination of scoring prowess, defensive acumen, and production makes him an exceptionally rare commodity in any era.

He is worth is the contract and more.

 

[Gutchecktime]

He re-signed the Big 4, upgraded the D, signed a bunch of useful vets, and has kept the prospect pool filled.

Definitely deserves a ton of appreciation.

 

[Dekes For Days]

I know some people will just ignore this, but since Matthews recently hit 300 GP, I thought it might be interesting to look at three of the best young players from the current generation and the three best young players from the previous generation through their first 300 GP in the league. First off, to give some context to their average ages during that time:

Weighted Average Age:

Crosby: 19.5
McDavid: 20.2
Marner: 20.4
Matthews: 20.6
Ovechkin: 21.4
Malkin: 21.4

I averaged out the ES and PP TOI/GP that these 6 players got, and ended up with 15:45 at ES and 4:15 on the PP. It totaled a nice round 20 min, so I decided to use that. I then took the rates at which these players produced at ES and on the PP, and adjusted both for league scoring levels, before applying them to the TOI amounts. This allows us to better compare across eras, as we account for differences in league scoring and TOI distribution.

Over an 82-game season, we are left with the following...

Points (15:45 ES, 4:15 PP)

McDavid: 111.7
Crosby: 109.8
Malkin: 103.2
Matthews: 100.7
Marner: 99.5
Ovechkin: 99.0

(When removing EN points, Matthews moves into #3 above Malkin)

Primary Points (15:45 ES, 4:15 PP)

Crosby: 86.7
Ovechkin: 85.3
McDavid: 83.9
Matthews: 82.7
Malkin: 78.6
Marner: 72.7

(When removing EN points, Matthews moves into #3 above McDavid)

Goals (15.75 ES, 4.25 PP)

Matthews: 55.5
Ovechkin: 53.1
Crosby: 38.8
Malkin: 37.0
McDavid: 36.6
Marner: 27.5

(When removing EN goals, McDavid moves into #4 above Malkin)

 

[zeke]

I think term makes the comparison look worse, because both guys' comparables took longer deals at less (inflation adjusted) money.

But if both of those guys retire as Leafs because they feel like they were treated well, then I guess Dubas's approach paid off. I'm absolutely sure Dubas knew that he was overpaying them compared to their most recent comps when he did it.

Turns out the guys you thought were comparables weren't.

 

[Randy Randerson]

Turns out the guys you thought were comparables weren't.

McDavid, Eichel & Kucherov?

 

[zeke]

McDavid, Eichel & Kucherov?

Turns out slotting them right between McDavid and Eichel was exactly right.

 

[Randy Randerson]

Turns out slotting them right between McDavid and Eichel was exactly right.

Matthews for sure, and he got what he should have on an 8 year deal as a result.

Marner's a great player, but plays a less valuable position and he's not better than Kucherov. He's significantly overpaid by comparison to his peers.

And that's fine, Dubas' prerogative was to keep those guys happy and he's making it up elsewhere, it hasn't been the handcuff to having supplemental talent that it was supposed to be.

 

[Gary Nylund]

My "favourite" anti-Dubas narrative was that "he's done nothing to fix the D", and this nonsense persisted even after he traded for Muzzin. Also, these things don't happen overnight, you need to take your time and make the right moves. So since Muzzin, he got Barrie which didn't turn out great but now he picked up Brodie and Bogosian and look at us now! I guess it's Keefe who gets the credit for Holl being a big part of the D though who knows, maybe anyone but Babcock was all that was required. But give Dubas credit for hiring Keefe then I guess.

An any case, holy crap has Dubas (or the Dubas Keefe tandem) ever fixed the D!!

 

[Randy Randerson]

My "favourite" anti-Dubas narrative was that "he's done nothing to fix the D", and this nonsense persisted even after he traded for Muzzin. Also, these things don't happen overnight, you need to take your time and make the right moves. So since Muzzin, he got Barrie which didn't turn out great but now he picked up Brodie and Bogosian and look at us now! I guess it's Keefe who gets the credit for Holl being a big part of the D though who knows, maybe anyone but Babcock was all that was required. But give Dubas credit for hiring Keefe then I guess.

An any case, holy crap has Dubas (or the Dubas Keefe tandem) ever fixed the D!!

I think the defense issue is one that he got some bad luck on leading up to this year, then a bunch of good luck all of a sudden. Holl appearing out of the ether is a hell of a get and exactly what this team needed....like at this point, it looks like getting a Pietrangelo would have been more of a hindrance than a help.

I agree though that Dubas has been active in addressing needs. There is a massive filter of luck in every aspect of this game (and life), and it always regresses to a mean over a large enough sample. So just keep making good, data-driven decisions and it will pan out at some point.

Also, really glad that the immediate pressure appears to be off now. Pressure only makes people do things they wouldn't normally, and we shouldn't be doing stuff like mortgaging the future at this point because we should be contenders for a long time.

 

[Teeder Keon]

I think the defense issue is one that he got some bad luck on leading up to this year, then a bunch of good luck all of a sudden. Holl appearing out of the ether is a hell of a get and exactly what this team needed....like at this point, it looks like getting a Pietrangelo would have been more of a hindrance than a help.

I agree though that Dubas has been active in addressing needs. There is a massive filter of luck in every aspect of this game (and life), and it always regresses to a mean over a large enough sample. So just keep making good, data-driven decisions and it will pan out at some point.

Also, really glad that the immediate pressure appears to be off now. Pressure only makes people do things they wouldn't normally, and we shouldn't be doing stuff like mortgaging the future at this point because we should be contenders for a long time.

really good points

 

[ShaneFalco]

My "favourite" anti-Dubas narrative was that "he's done nothing to fix the D", and this nonsense persisted even after he traded for Muzzin. Also, these things don't happen overnight, you need to take your time and make the right moves. So since Muzzin, he got Barrie which didn't turn out great but now he picked up Brodie and Bogosian and look at us now! I guess it's Keefe who gets the credit for Holl being a big part of the D though who knows, maybe anyone but Babcock was all that was required. But give Dubas credit for hiring Keefe then I guess.

An any case, holy crap has Dubas (or the Dubas Keefe tandem) ever fixed the D!!

Funny how the same anti-Dubas posters have been silent for some time
If they don't have anything negative to say.......

 

[BertCorbeau]

I think Dubas' has done a great job implementing his vision in building the roster while learning from his mistakes.

That being said, ultimately, it comes down to playoff success and the Leafs need a run this year to prove they're legit. With how this division is shaping up, I don't think a single playoff series win will be enough. They are becoming heavy Conference Final favourites and the path to the cup is very attainable.

 

[Dekes For Days]

McDavid, Eichel & Kucherov?

The contracts for Matthews and Marner fit properly within McDavid and Eichel (and pretty much every other superstar's post-ELC contract in the entire cap era) at the terms they got, when properly evaluating their pre-signing levels of production; even more-so if we take McDavid's actual negotiated amount, and not the post-discount cap hit percentage.

I don't actually know about Kucherov, because he was on his 3rd contract, and was not a comparable for a post-ELC contract anyway - his production level represented an entirely different stage of development. Not sure how people still don't understand one of the most basic things about comparables.

 

[RogerR]

I think the defense issue is one that he got some bad luck on leading up to this year, then a bunch of good luck all of a sudden. Holl appearing out of the ether is a hell of a get and exactly what this team needed....like at this point, it looks like getting a Pietrangelo would have been more of a hindrance than a help.

I agree though that Dubas has been active in addressing needs. There is a massive filter of luck in every aspect of this game (and life), and it always regresses to a mean over a large enough sample. So just keep making good, data-driven decisions and it will pan out at some point.

Also, really glad that the immediate pressure appears to be off now. Pressure only makes people do things they wouldn't normally, and we shouldn't be doing stuff like mortgaging the future at this point because we should be contenders for a long time.

Justin Holl is not luck at all. Dubas identified him 5 years ago and signed him to the Marlies.