News Article: Dreger - Teams preparing to offer sheet Leafs' Marner

[IPS]

I don’t think anyone was surprised by the Muzzin to Leafs trade.

... point being?

 

[81Leafs50]

I HOPE SOME TEAM DOES OFFER SHEET MARNER!!

Lefas would take the 4 1st rounders and then will sign Panarin LMAO

Talk about a move backfiring for the rest of the NHL!

 

[Nineteen67]

... point being?

Pretty much everyone knew it was possible.

 

[zeke]

The thing is it seems like Point would be such a better target.

That's the chance for someone to get a 22yr old elite #1C who's as complete a player as there is in the league. That's the kind of guy you overpay for without thinking about it.

Blowing out your cap and system on a winger doesn't strike me as the smartest move.

 

[zeke]

I don’t think anyone was surprised by the Muzzin to Leafs trade.

the "insiders" had nothing on that.

 

[Nineteen67]

The thing is it seems like Point would be such a better target.

That's the chance for someone to get a 22yr old elite #1C who's as complete a player as there is in the league. That's the kind of guy you overpay for without thinking about it.

Blowing out your cap and system on a winger doesn't strike me as the smartest move.

That’s why most have him as the likeliest to receive an OS if he makes it to July.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Nylander for 6M
Marner for 7M
Matthews for 10M
All with home town discounts it was never going to work from day 1
It was all a wet dream
I mean if it happened it would have been amazing but reality is not so much

 

[SprDaVE]

The thing is it seems like Point would be such a better target.

That's the chance for someone to get a 22yr old elite #1C who's as complete a player as there is in the league. That's the kind of guy you overpay for without thinking about it.

Blowing out your cap and system on a winger doesn't strike me as the smartest move.

They have ~9M in cap space. Not only is Point going to make ~8-10M, they are losing 3 defenseman to free agency, and they also have to re-sign Paquette and Erne. They still have to fill their roster with 4-6 players. This time next year, they have to re-sign Vasilevsky, Sergachev. Cirelli and Joseph.

Brayden Point is 100% target #1 to be available for an Offer Sheet.

Sure, the Leafs are the ones in trouble.

 

[Nineteen67]

the "insiders" had nothing on that.

How come I knew Muzzin was on the Leafs radar?

 

[JT AM da real deal]

That’s why most have him as the likeliest to receive an OS if he makes it to July.

That is bang on right and everyone knows it. Tampa is going to get hurt next year. Toronto I think we will get hurt too but more than likely we will match Marner and then lose Kappy and AJ oh well so be it.

 

[Suntouchable13]

That is bang on right and everyone knows it. Tampa is going to get hurt next year. Toronto I think we will get hurt too but more than likely we will match Marner and then lose Kappy and AJ oh well so be it.

Marner is not worth whatever crazy amount some team will throw at him.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Marner is not worth whatever crazy amount some team will throw at him.

To me it depends on the dollars and the team. But I have seen Mitch play for 15+ years. He is a difference maker.

 

[Suntouchable13]

To me it depends on the dollars and the team. But I have seen Mitch play for 15+ years. He is a difference maker.

12-13 mil would be too crazy when TB is paying Kuch under 10. How can we compete like that?

 

[666]

I'd give you Freddy as the most important guy for our team; but if you actually did ppg Matthews clearly has more impact not playing with elite talent like JT

Also,
Matthews' so called cold streak he still manages to show up on the scoresheet; Marner on the other hand when he has not having a good game he hardly shows up on the scoresheet.

I love mitch; but quite frankly Matthews is a lot more important to the Leafs

Anyway you want to measure it Marner has been much more consistent on the scoresheet than Matthews this season.

 

[Its not your fault]

So when's do teams prepare to offersheet Matthews or a story for the next bye week.

 

[BlueForever75]

If some team offers Marner a 5 yr deal or more at 10+ million a season, if Im the leafs I make him walk.

To me if Marner doesn't find the playing at home enticing and is willing to sign an offer sheet. He isn't a player I would want on the Leafs anyways.

Like I mentioned earlier. Let him go, collect 4 1st rounders for him. Use money saved to sign another winger that may not be exactly at his level but the Leafs wont lose much scoring. Someone like Panarin wanted to be a Leaf previously and choose Chicago. There's history there. What would Panarin sign for 8-9 million per. You save in what it would have cost to retain Marner, and gain 4 1st rounders. Which you either use depending where they slot over the years. Or you trade to better you team elsewhere like the Muzzin trade.

Either way you look at it, the Leafs win if they sign or don't sign Marner.

 

[PromisedLand]

Exactly the intended likely outcome.

That $12 mil is guaranteed, all that is missing is Marner's signature on the contract and that is his new salary.

However now follow that thought through to completion.

Marner has a valid OS offer on the table for $12 mil (but unsigned), so how much money will Dubas need to offer Marner to get him to sign a new Leaf contract?

Only going to be so much less than the $12 mil (home town discount) that Marner will accept.

Lets break this down:

12M x 7yrs = 84million in earnings in 7 years

Leafs offer marner for 10Mx6 = 60M in 6 years

then re-up his contract at say 15 to 18 AAV

That means in the next 7 years Marner's earnings could be between

75M to 78M if he signs with the Leafs

84M - 78M = 6M loss in salary for Mitch from his contract signing

Are you telling me that Mitch cannot make up that 6M in commercials and sponsorship in 7 years if he is a Leaf?


Do you think Mitch gets as much additional revenue if he is not a Leaf?

Do you think that GMs around the league are going to increase the RFA market like this and not expect to have other RFAs use that as comparables?

come on man

 

[facelessjoe1990]

hypothetically which teams could offersheet him and who do they have coming up that we could offersheet him back for revenge?

 

[Matthews34]

That’s why the info gets floated to the media. They know it’ll get reported.
For e.g, maybe Montreal is telling Dreger they’ll offer sheet Marner to create a distraction.

That's tampering and isn't allowed so no that's not it. Teams aren't even allowed to let it be know that they are interested in a player outside of their organization without it being tampering.

 

[zeke]

That’s why most have him as the likeliest to receive an OS if he makes it to July.

most who?

 

[zeke]

How come I knew Muzzin was on the Leafs radar?

because you've been reading my posts.

 

[PromisedLand]

Anyway you want to measure it Marner has been much more consistent on the scoresheet than Matthews this season.

NHL.com - Stats

from 2016-2017 season
Matthews leads the points per game; this includes Marner's sheltered usage in 2016-2017 season;
Matthews many cold streaks and he is still leading the pack facing top QoC for all the seasons he has played in the league - hardly ever sheltered playing with rookies in hyman and nylander;

while marner had the benefit of playing guys who had decent NHL experience
2016-2017 season: JVR, Bozak
2017-2018 season: JVR, Bozak, Kadri, Marleau
2018-2019 season: Tavares

Matthews meanwhile has always played with guys with who had similar NHL experience as him.

come on man when you apply context; you can see how the accomplishments of Matthews are significantly better than Marner thus far; and why he is the important piece probably THE MOST IMPORTANT piece for the Leafs (perhaps after Freddy)

 

[therealkoho]

Tell us how you really feel...

really though I don't disagree. Dreger is losing credibility all the time(if he even has any left). We're all talking about it though so... I guess that's why he does it.

As far as I'm concerned he's never had credibility, no matter that he's a second cousin once removed of Dave Nonis, how many of you folks actually have a close relationship with a once removed 2nd cousin, how many of you even know your 2nd cousins once removed unless of course you live in a very small town and the family is concentrated there. The sad truth is they grew up in separate provinces.

Although I'm pretty sure he has been getting used by different teams for years, but is never actually given the straight dope....As far as posting "already done" deals quickly onto his twitting, yep sometimes his twitter get's it first, that said the intern pool at TSN is focused on the NHL wire and their sole responsibility to get it onto the insiders twit accounts.

 

[ORRFForever]

LOL I think people forget how good matthews is. Recency bias is hilarious for us leaf fans.

We think nylander sucks, we think matthews is overrated now, we think kapanen is better than nylander, we think marner is better than matthews, etc.

Matthews is our bonafide best player. Players like him NEVER come around. He is a big center who will score 50 plus goals a year and be good defensively.

I bet if gauthier scores 4 goals tonight we will think he is a top 9 forward who is secretly better than nylander.

Taking his injury history into consideration is not a bias.

 

[Peiskos]

I'm not buying it, I still remember Mitch Marner as a small child telling CP24 how the Leafs are his favourite team, I peg him as a guy who would turn down 11 million from some random other team in favour of staying in Toronto where his heart is for 8-9 million.