Dreger: "Shattenkirk is a 2nd pairing dman, 3rd pairing on some teams"

[major major]

I would agree with that, if you count 3rd pairing the right way. Some teams are so deep that the third pairing gets a ton of minutes. Also, there are teams out there that don't need Shattenkirk so of course he may fall behind in the depth chart, but they aren't worth talking about if they aren't looking to add him. Also, you could say that third pairing is only 5 on 5. He could be third pairing but still in the top 4 in terms of total minutes played.

That's what he is for St. Louis. His pairing might technically be called second, I'm not sure, but the two other right-side D both get more minutes at evens.

And yet you have folks on this thread who are absolutely incredulous that Shattenkirk could ever be on a third pairing.

 

[Hynh]

Dreger is an insider who spends more time on his phone and twitter than watching actual hockey. The info these guys get is often hearsay nor is their job to actually analyze or evaluate players.

I don't know why you guys take them so seriously. I also find it funny how highly-regarded Bob McKenzie's draft rankings are. Those are consensus rankings he gets from scouts on where he thinks players are going to go. Bob himself isn't exactly spending time watching a bunch of actual junior hockey and making scouting reports.

That's precisely why they are more valuable than **** like ISS or Craig Button. Sure, some people don't know how they are made but I'll take the opinion of 10 NHL scouting staffs over any freelancer.

 

[Vincenzo Arelliti]

I sincerely hope that the rest of the GMs in the league value him as a 3rd line PP QB - there's no way anyone would offer him 6M long-term if that's the case. Blues then re-sign him after he tests FA to 5M/6.

 

[StLHokie]

That's not how I read it. The GMs see him as second or third pair on their team, which could be.

On the Jackets Shatty would be solidly behind Jones and Savard, and thus a third pairing guy at ES. Shattenkirk's D game isn't at their level, and his ES scoring rate isn't any better either.

He's an elite PP QB, but so is Werenski.

All of that and he can still be a top 50 D-man.

Uhh, you realize that Shattenkirk is at 24 in the league at 5v5 P/60 for defensemen over the last three years with 1.12 right? Jones is at 140th with 0.63, and Savard isn't much better at 124, with 0.68 PP/60. He almost doubles each of their production rates.

Shattenkirk is a MUCH better even strength offensive player than either of those two guys. Defensively he isn't as great, but to say they are even comparable offensively is clearly just uninformed. Also, Shattenkirk is #1 in the league in Powerplay Points/60 in the league in that same time frame. He is the best PP QB in the league. You cannot come close to saying that Werenski is an equivalent player at this point.

He definitely would not be a 3rd pairing guy on the Jackets. If you think so, you've clearly not seen him play much.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

Great to hear some teams have him there. I hope my team has him ranked as a first pairing guy and pays him the money he wants.

Uhh, you realize that Shattenkirk is at 24 in the league at 5v5 P/60 for defensemen over the last three years with 1.12 right? Jones is at 140th with 0.63, and Savard isn't much better at 124, with 0.68 PP/60. He almost doubles each of their production rates.

Shattenkirk is a MUCH better even strength offensive player than either of those two guys. Defensively he isn't as great, but to say they are even comparable offensively is clearly just uninformed. Also, Shattenkirk is #1 in the league in Powerplay Points/60 in the league in that same time frame. He is the best PP QB in the league. You cannot come close to saying that Werenski is an equivalent player at this point.

He definitely would not be a 3rd pairing guy on the Jackets. If you think so, you've clearly not seen him play much.

He is behind Jones. Jones is our top pairing D-man if NHL players actually go to the Olympics in 2018. Seth Jones is as good as we all hoped he would be leading into his draft year. I take him over Shattenkirk everyday of the week and twice today because it is Sunday.

 

[StLHokie]

Great to hear some teams have him there. I hope my team has him ranked as a first pairing guy and pays him the money he wants.



He is behind Jones. Jones is our top pairing D-man if NHL players actually go to the Olympics in 2018. Seth Jones is as good as we all hoped he would be leading into his draft year. I take him over Shattenkirk everyday of the week and twice today because it is Sunday.

Where exactly did I say he'd be ahead of Jones? Also, Are you saying that he's top pairing on the US Olympic team? I'd disagree. Faulk is definitely better at this point. Also, to say that he is miles better than Shatty is also confusing since Shattenkirk also gets the call to play for USA and was on the second pair last go around (and he is better now than he was 3 years ago). Looking at age/contract and other factors, Jones is the obvious choice. But as for current overall on ice ability, there isn't much of a difference. Jones is better defensively, Shattenkirk is better offensively.

But I'd still looking to hear why Shattenkirk would be clearly behind Savard, and comparable to a Werenski.

 

[PatriceBergeronFan]

Solid number 3/4s dont put up the numbers he does.

He's at worst a great #3.

They do if they are good on the PP or play against depth lines rather than as a top pairing defenseman.

 

[major major]

Uhh, you realize that Shattenkirk is at 24 in the league at 5v5 P/60 for defensemen over the last three years with 1.12 right? Jones is at 140th with 0.63, and Savard isn't much better at 124, with 0.68 PP/60. He almost doubles each of their production rates.

Shattenkirk is a MUCH better even strength offensive player than either of those two guys. Defensively he isn't as great, but to say they are even comparable offensively is clearly just uninformed. Also, Shattenkirk is #1 in the league in Powerplay Points/60 in the league in that same time frame. He is the best PP QB in the league. You cannot come close to saying that Werenski is an equivalent player at this point.

He definitely would not be a 3rd pairing guy on the Jackets. If you think so, you've clearly not seen him play much.

Edit: It looks like you accidentally used the 2014-15 numbers, when Jones was 20.

That's funny, I look up the three year numbers and those three players are roughly tied:

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rat...nse&minutes=1250&disp=1&sort=PCT&sortdir=DESC

And that includes a lot of time where Jones is just developing. This year he's well ahead of Shattenkirk, better at evens at both ends of the ice. Savard matches Shattenkirk's ES scoring and is a high-end shutdown D. He's a very easy choice over Shatty at evens. So yes, Shatty wouldn't be top 4 at evens.

The reason I say 19 year old Werenski is like Shattenkirk is this:
http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rat...ense&minutes=100&disp=1&sort=PCT&sortdir=DESC

Shattenkirk has been at the top of PP P/60 for a long time (very impressive) and Werenski comes in and he's already producing at the same rate. They also have similar overall minutes and deployment.

I'm not sure about who is Team USA's 2018 #1. Could be Suter still, but I doubt it's Faulk. Carolina fans would sooner tell you that the top pair might be Slavin - Jones.

 

[zeke]

Dreger is actually right for once.

Shattenkirk is a fantastic PP QB. Not a guy you want on your PK. And at even strength he needs sheltering.

 

[Aceboogie]

This is actually very much correct. 5x5 hes 2nd pairing and on a great d core would be 3rd pairing. But on PP hes an animal and should be on each PP for 1:30

 

[StLHokie]

Edit: It looks like you accidentally used the 2014-15 numbers, when Jones was 20.

That's funny, I look up the three year numbers and those three players are roughly tied:

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rat...nse&minutes=1250&disp=1&sort=PCT&sortdir=DESC

And that includes a lot of time where Jones is just developing. This year he's well ahead of Shattenkirk, better at evens at both ends of the ice. Savard matches Shattenkirk's ES scoring and is a high-end shutdown D. He's a very easy choice over Shatty at evens. So yes, Shatty wouldn't be top 4 at evens.

The reason I say 19 year old Werenski is like Shattenkirk is this:
http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rat...ense&minutes=100&disp=1&sort=PCT&sortdir=DESC

Shattenkirk has been at the top of PP P/60 for a long time (very impressive) and Werenski comes in and he's already producing at the same rate. They also have similar overall minutes and deployment.

I'm not sure about who is Team USA's 2018 #1. Could be Suter still, but I doubt it's Faulk. Carolina fans would sooner tell you that the top pair might be Slavin - Jones.

You're right, my mistake. Should have double checked the numbers.

But the issue I have with Werenski is the same issue I had with Gostisbehere in Philly. First year in the league and putting up big numbers has become a trend with young offensive defensemen, but very few of them are actually capable of sustaining it. Shattenkirk has.

 

[major major]

You're right, my mistake. Should have double checked the numbers.

But the issue I have with Werenski is the same issue I had with Gostisbehere in Philly. First year in the league and putting up big numbers has become a trend with young offensive defensemen, but very few of them are actually capable of sustaining it. Shattenkirk has.

I agree and that speaks very well for Shattenkirk. The reason I brought up Werenski is that it's just another reason why the Jackets wouldn't be able to utilize Shattenkirk this year. I don't know if Werenski can keep that up, but I do know you wouldn't acquire Shattenkirk if Werenski is currently performing at that level on the PP.

 

[biturbo19]

That's what he is for St. Louis. His pairing might technically be called second, I'm not sure, but the two other right-side D both get more minutes at evens.

And yet you have folks on this thread who are absolutely incredulous that Shattenkirk could ever be on a third pairing.

Yeah. I think it's a bit of an exaggeration to refer to Shattenkirk as a "3rd pairing defenceman" in general, but the reality is...that's what he's playing in terms of 5v5 minutes on the Blues this year.


I think it's entirely fair to call him a 2nd pairing guy on the whole. That's where he really fits on a depth chart. He's not a guy you're going to matchup vs top lines. He's a guy who has benefited a lot in St.Louis from playing behind an extremely high-end all situations RHD in Pietrangelo. Shattenkirk does great work in terms of capitalizing on that opportunity and is a fantastic PP player. But a top-pairing D he is not. At the very least, it'd be hard to blame teams for being wary of what happens to Shattenkirk on a less deep blueline with more exposure where he no longer has a Pietrangelo (and Parayko) to "shelter" him.

Being a somewhat sheltered top-PP defenceman and solid 2nd pairing guy at even strength is just dandy though, when it comes with that kind of production. There's plenty of value in that.

However, if as Dreger also suggests...we're talking about a $7M x 7 year deal for Shattenkirk on the open market this summer...that's legitimate top-pairing, all situations shutdown stud who also produces points type money. That's not, "16:32 5v5 minutes plus a bundle of cushy PP time" sort of money. That's Pietrangelo type money, which he clearly is not. And i'm not sure what's so outrageous about that suggestion.

 

[TruBlu]

I doubt Shatty gets the 7 mil that is now being floated by some, especially with many teams currently up against the cap and not yet knowing how much, if any, the cap will rise. He's a legitimate second pairing guy. I think he will probably end up in the 6 mil to 6.5 mil range. If a team is looking for a "shutdown" stalwart defenseman, they will not be willing to part with that kind of money. However, a team that is looking for a PMD and PP QB will absolutely pay that. The money aspect comes down to which teams are needing that and there are a few teams that will be fighting over him come mid February, I guarantee it.

 

[Limekiller]

I doubt Shatty gets the 7 mil that is now being floated by some, especially with many teams currently up against the cap and not yet knowing how much, if any, the cap will rise. He's a legitimate second pairing guy. I think he will probably end up in the 6 mil to 6.5 mil range. If a team is looking for a "shutdown" stalwart defenseman, they will not be willing to part with that kind of money. However, a team that is looking for a PMD and PP QB will absolutely pay that. The money aspect comes down to which teams are needing that and there are a few teams that will be fighting over him come mid February, I guarantee it.

He might get 7-7.5 from Las Vegas, if they key on him as the key FA out there this summer, and go hard after him. After all, they'll have plenty of cap room, and will be desperately in need of high end talent.

Anyway, like I said before as far as 2nd, 3rd pairing, etc. on the Sharks he'd be 3rd pairing, and would probably QB the #2PP unit. What is technically our 1st pairing is Vlasic/Braun, which is one of the best shutdown pairings in the league. Pretty unlikely he'd replace Braun as Vlasic's partner, so that pairing is out. Our other top RD is Burns. While Shattenkirk is obviously really good, he's not Burns. Which leaves (wait for it) the 3rd pairing. The reason why I say the #2PP is that right now Burns is our sole D-man on the #1PP, and there's no way Shattenkirk (or anyone else) is going to replace him in that role. Thus, #2PP, where he'd be a huge improvement for us without question. I still question whether the Sharks even have the movable assets required to acquire Shattenkirk, or if they'd be willing to pay them for a pure rental if they do. Obviously would love to have him, as we COULD shelter him, and he would definitely be a big upgrade on that #2PP, but he'd probably be more a luxury than a NEED. (our biggest need is a LW that's good along the boards we could put with Thornton/Pavelski, or a high quality #3C, which would let us keep Hertl up there)

 

[roon]

Whichever team pay's Shattenkirk the money he is after will regret it in short order.

 

[Space Herpe]

Let him be an 2nd or 3rd pairing on the Isles.
I'm fine with that.

 

[Riddum]

That's not wrong. For example, he'd be second pairing at best on the Habs.

 

[CrypTic]

I sincerely hope that the rest of the GMs in the league value him as a 3rd line PP QB - there's no way anyone would offer him 6M long-term if that's the case. Blues then re-sign him after he tests FA to 5M/6.

I'd offer him 6M as a 3rd pairing PPQB. I think that PPQBs may have more value than you think. 3rd pairing guys can still play a lot of minutes.

He might get 7-7.5 from Las Vegas, if they key on him as the key FA out there this summer, and go hard after him. After all, they'll have plenty of cap room, and will be desperately in need of high end talent.

Anyway, like I said before as far as 2nd, 3rd pairing, etc. on the Sharks he'd be 3rd pairing, and would probably QB the #2PP unit. What is technically our 1st pairing is Vlasic/Braun, which is one of the best shutdown pairings in the league. Pretty unlikely he'd replace Braun as Vlasic's partner, so that pairing is out. Our other top RD is Burns. While Shattenkirk is obviously really good, he's not Burns. Which leaves (wait for it) the 3rd pairing. The reason why I say the #2PP is that right now Burns is our sole D-man on the #1PP, and there's no way Shattenkirk (or anyone else) is going to replace him in that role. Thus, #2PP, where he'd be a huge improvement for us without question. I still question whether the Sharks even have the movable assets required to acquire Shattenkirk, or if they'd be willing to pay them for a pure rental if they do. Obviously would love to have him, as we COULD shelter him, and he would definitely be a big upgrade on that #2PP, but he'd probably be more a luxury than a NEED. (our biggest need is a LW that's good along the boards we could put with Thornton/Pavelski, or a high quality #3C, which would let us keep Hertl up there)

I agree with this. I don't think it's outrageous that some GMs would see Shattenkirk as being on the third pair or that they'd want him mainly as a PPQB.

We need a 1LW or solid 3C more. But we need more scoring and could use more offense from the defense. (Anywhere, really, but if our forwards get their act together offense from the d may be a bigger long term need then offense from the forwards.) But I don't think we have the cap space or assets to do a sign and trade. I don't think we can afford 7M. Some teams might and, if they do, I doubt that we'd be interested.

 

[Juxtaposer]

I can't believe I, a former card-carrying member of the Shattenkirk Hate Club, have to come in here are defend him. Shattenkirk is a top pairing defenseman and is extremely underrated defensively.

 

[aufheben]

I can't believe I, a former card-carrying member of the Shattenkirk Hate Club, have to come in here are defend him. Shattenkirk is a top pairing defenseman and is extremely underrated defensively.

As a Rangers fan I hope a lot of teams view him as a 3rd pairing defenseman.

 

[CrypTic]

As a Rangers fan I hope a lot of teams view him as a 3rd pairing defenseman.

Why? I don't understand this at all.

The Penguins are paying Kessel 6.8M whether they view him as a third line player or a first line player. They're probably happy to pay that regardless of which line he plays on. If he helps them more on the 3rd line, how is that worse than helping on their top line? His skills are the same either way. He's not less of a player.

Edit to add: Does it matter if Burns plays on our top pair or our second pair? It doesn't to me and it's debatable which is which. I've seen ppl say Vlasic is on the top pair and others say Burns is but IMO it doesn't matter bc, regardless of if he's on the first or second pair, Burns is awesome and Vlasic is Vlasic. It's what they bring to the game that I care about.

 

[aufheben]

Why? I don't understand this at all.

The Penguins are paying Kessel 6.8M whether they view him as a third line player or a first line player. They're probably happy to pay that regardless of which line he plays on. If he helps them more on the 3rd line, how is that worse than helping on their top line? His skills are the same either way. He's not less of a player.

Why what?

 

[CrypTic]

Why what?

Why do you hope that other teams see him as a 3rd pairing d man?

 

[aufheben]

Why do you hope that other teams see him as a 3rd pairing d man?

So the Rangers can sign him