Dreger: "Shattenkirk is a 2nd pairing dman, 3rd pairing on some teams"

[CrypTic]

So the Rangers can sign him

This is what I don't understand. There's one or more missing steps in the logic for me.

It wouldn't necessarily affect how much they pay him. Pretty sure the Pens are happy to pay Kessel 6.8M even if he plays on the third line. Sharks are happy to pay Burns 8M on what is arguably the second pair. Do you think that he wouldn't want to play on the third pair even if he were quarterbacking a power play and pretty much guaranteed lots of PP minutes?

 

[aufheben]

This is what I don't understand. There's one or more missing steps in the logic for me.

It wouldn't necessarily affect how much they pay him. Pretty sure the Pens are happy to pay Kessel 6.8M even if he plays on the third line. Sharks are happy to pay Burns 8M on what is arguably the second pair. Do you think that he wouldn't want to play on the third pair even if he were quarterbacking a power play and pretty much guaranteed lots of PP minutes?

It's what the thread is about, team's being weary of signing him because they view him as a 2nd/3rd pairing defenseman. I mean I was kind of just being cheeky about it lol.

 

[STL fan in MN]

Shattenkirk is fantastic on the PP but he's definitely below average defensively by NHL standards. He's easily the #3 right d-man on the Blues right now at even strength behind Petro and Parayko. And he's spotted way more offensive zone starts than D-zone starts. He's great in the offensive zone but poor defending the rush, poor protecting the house, not great in the corners and coughs up quite a few turnovers, especially against a heavy forecheck...and that's usually against non-elite competition as Petro faces those guys and if not him, then Parayko. Shatty plays very sheltered minutes. Great PP specialist but I think he'd be eaten alive if some team expected him to pull down 1st pairing minutes and responsibility.

 

[hagelin1381]

I see him as a second pairing guy at the worst on any team with average defensive depth.. St. Louis' depth on the right side is just ridiculous

 

[CrypTic]

It's what the thread is about, team's being weary of signing him because they view him as a 2nd/3rd pairing defenseman. I mean I was kind of just being cheeky about it lol.

Thanks for the explanation.

I thought the thread was about what Dreger said which was that several teams were interested in Shattenkirk as a rental but, so far, were wary of doing a sign and trade bc he wanted too much (rumored to be north of 7M x 7 or 8 years). Then they'd have to pay the Blues on top of that but, relative to the 7M+ x 7/8, it's probably not a big consideration if they really want Shatty and he'd agree to a sign and trade (assuming that they have the assets the Blues want).

If the Rangers do want to pay him around 7M, this could be good for them. He may take a decent discount there, too. (e.g., asking everyone else for 7.25M but the Rangers only 6.5M)

 

[aufheben]

Thanks for the explanation.

I thought the thread was about what Dreger said which was that several teams were interested in Shattenkirk as a rental but, so far, were wary of doing a sign and trade bc he wanted too much (rumored to be north of 7M x 7 or 8 years). Then they'd have to pay the Blues on top of that but, relative to the 7M+ x 7/8, it's probably not a big consideration if they really want Shatty and he'd agree to a sign and trade (assuming that they have the assets the Blues want).

If the Rangers do want to pay him around 7M, this could be good for them. He may take a decent discount there, too. (e.g., asking everyone else for 7.25M but the Rangers only 6.5M)

Honestly I think the Devils could be a dark horse if their management is interested. They have a lot of capspace, and a need for more high event players. He could be the go-to guy there, and still live in the Tri-state area.

 

[CrypTic]

Honestly I think the Devils could be a dark horse if their management is interested. They have a lot of capspace, and a need for more high event players. He could be the go-to guy there, and still live in the Tri-state area.

That would make a lot of sense. I could see him wanting less money from the Rangers than the Devils but still be willing to play for the Devils. It's not his childhood dream but he's an adult now and playing for the Devils would let him live near where he wants, pay him well (assuming that they put in a competitive offer), and give him a lot of playing time.

 

[aufheben]

That would make a lot of sense. I could see him wanting less money from the Rangers than the Devils but still be willing to play for the Devils. It's not his childhood dream but he's an adult now and playing for the Devils would let him live near where he wants, pay him well (assuming that they put in a competitive offer), and give him a lot of playing time.

Yep, that's exactly my feeling. We'll see. I can definitely picture him in a Devils jersey (not that really means anything lol).

 

[BDizzle*]

He is a fine player but a team that will sign him for 7 x 7 is going to regret this very quickly. Reminds me of a Dion Phaneuf situation a few years back.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Experienced quality D men, heck even slightly above average D men are scarce trading commodities. I have a feeling if he is traded, it will be for an overpayment.

 

[TomDelonge]

i'm surprised i kind of agree.

if he's your top two or three in minutes and you havn't had powerplays you probably just lost the game.

This year? Yeah, pretty much.

 

[Avelanche]

3rd pairing on Team Canada. He didn’t say nhl teams.

 

[tony d]

LOL. Guy is one of the better offensive defenseman in the league. He's not a #1 defenseman now but I still call him a #2.

 

[Uberdachen]

I always thought his name was synonymous with #2.

 

[KingBran]

Shattenkirk is fantastic on the PP but he's definitely below average defensively by NHL standards. He's easily the #3 right d-man on the Blues right now at even strength behind Petro and Parayko. And he's spotted way more offensive zone starts than D-zone starts. He's great in the offensive zone but poor defending the rush, poor protecting the house, not great in the corners and coughs up quite a few turnovers, especially against a heavy forecheck...and that's usually against non-elite competition as Petro faces those guys and if not him, then Parayko. Shatty plays very sheltered minutes. Great PP specialist but I think he'd be eaten alive if some team expected him to pull down 1st pairing minutes and responsibility.

I disagree completely. He is good on defense, above average even. People act like he is this huge defensive liability. It's simply not true. He's not great at defense but he is absolutely above average.

I would not put him behind Parayko in any form whatsoever either. Hes second only to Petro on the team. I would take him over anyone else. Parayko has tons of potential but he is not better than Shattenkirk right now.

I will agree if he saw constant minutes vs top lines he wouldn't be has highly regarded but he fills in and does get shifts vs other teams top lines here and there and he doesn't look completely lost while doing it.

You put him on a Canadian team and we would start seeing 'Shattenkirk vs, Karlsson' threads. Guarantee it.

 

[Edmonton East]

Whatever. Devils will take him at 7 x 7.

Ideally 5 x $7 though.

 

[Burke the Legend]

Dreger is an insider who spends more time on his phone and twitter than watching actual hockey. The info these guys get is often hearsay nor is their job to actually analyze or evaluate players.

I don't know why you guys take them so seriously. I also find it funny how highly-regarded Bob McKenzie's draft rankings are. Those are consensus rankings he gets from scouts on where he thinks players are going to go. Bob himself isn't exactly spending time watching a bunch of actual junior hockey and making scouting reports.

Yeah Dreger and MacKenzie at the end of the day are both journalists. TSN has spent a lot of effort pumping them up to make them seem like more, but that's all marketing. They know about the same as hockey as any hardcore fan here at hfboards who has also never played the sport themselves.

 

[BernieParent]

I always thought his name was synonymous with #2.

 

[darglor]

I see what you did there

It works on so many levels, considering his twitter handle as well.

 

[McJeety McJeet]

3rd pairing on Team Canada. He didn’t say nhl teams.

Maybe on Team Canada B team. Probably not there either though. Good luck to the team that gives him 7x7 or more. Shattenkirk is good but he's going to be overpaid by a good amount it seems.

 

[zeke]

For a loose definition of "Top-4 dmen", given my limited sortable categories I'll just go with all dmen who have played 600+ ES minutes so far this year. There are 117 dmen who have done that, or just under 4 per team.

Of all these 117 dmen, here's how the Blues' top 4 rank in terms of their on-ice Opponents' Ice Time. aka TOIqoc. So how often they go up against the other teams top lines.


9.Bouwmeester
12.Pietrangelo
87.Parayko
109. Shattenkirk

So we see while Pietrangelo-Bouwmeester is one of the toughest usage pairings in hockey, and while Parayko is a little sheltered, Shattenkirk is one of the most sheltered top-4 dmen in hockey.

And while his possession numbers are solid in this sheltered ice time, they aren't amazing like some other similarly sheltered dmen (i.e. like Shultz or Gardiner).

As well, he is not a guy who plays much on the penalty kill.

He is one of the elite PP point men in the league, but I agree with Button that he's only borderline top-4 at even strength.

 

[Oberyn]

For a loose definition of "Top-4 dmen", given my limited sortable categories I'll just go with all dmen who have played 600+ ES minutes so far this year. There are 117 dmen who have done that, or just under 4 per team.

Of all these 117 dmen, here's how the Blues' top 4 rank in terms of their on-ice Opponents' Ice Time. aka TOIqoc. So how often they go up against the other teams top lines.


9.Bouwmeester
12.Pietrangelo
87.Parayko
109. Shattenkirk

So we see while Pietrangelo-Bouwmeester is one of the toughest usage pairings in hockey, and while Parayko is a little sheltered, Shattenkirk is one of the most sheltered top-4 dmen in hockey.

And while his possession numbers are solid in this sheltered ice time, they aren't amazing like some other similarly sheltered dmen (i.e. like Shultz or Gardiner).

As well, he is not a guy who plays much on the penalty kill.

He is one of the elite PP point men in the league, but I agree with Button that he's only borderline top-4 at even strength.

Shattenkirk doesn't play much against opposing top lines since he happens to be on a team that has two RHD that are better than him. Obviously the Blues are going to play Pietrangelo/Parayko over Shattenkirk in tougher matchups. If Shattenkirk was on a team with minimal defensive depth and he didn't play against opposing top lines, then yeah you're point makes sense.

 

[aufheben]

For a loose definition of "Top-4 dmen", given my limited sortable categories I'll just go with all dmen who have played 600+ ES minutes so far this year. There are 117 dmen who have done that, or just under 4 per team.

Of all these 117 dmen, here's how the Blues' top 4 rank in terms of their on-ice Opponents' Ice Time. aka TOIqoc. So how often they go up against the other teams top lines.


9.Bouwmeester
12.Pietrangelo
87.Parayko
109. Shattenkirk

So we see while Pietrangelo-Bouwmeester is one of the toughest usage pairings in hockey, and while Parayko is a little sheltered, Shattenkirk is one of the most sheltered top-4 dmen in hockey.

And while his possession numbers are solid in this sheltered ice time, they aren't amazing like some other similarly sheltered dmen (i.e. like Shultz or Gardiner).

As well, he is not a guy who plays much on the penalty kill.

He is one of the elite PP point men in the league, but I agree with Button that he's only borderline top-4 at even strength.

QoC isn't the most useful stat IMO, even less so when measured my TOI.

Also every time people mention QoC, they leave out QoT. Yeah Bouwmeester faces top lines (by ice-time) more often...he also plays with Pietrangelo.

 

[zeke]

Shattenkirk doesn't play much against opposing top lines since he happens to be on a team that has two RHD that are better than him. Obviously the Blues are going to play Pietrangelo/Parayko over Shattenkirk in tougher matchups. If Shattenkirk was on a team with minimal defensive depth and he didn't play against opposing top lines, then yeah you're point makes sense.

But again, his possession numbers compared to other guys with similar usage (i.e. gardiner, schultz, etc) are only ok, not great.

If he was really good, he'd dominate in that kind of soft usage, but he doesn't.

 

[zeke]

QoC isn't the most useful stat, even less so when measured my TOI.

I disagree quite strongly, and think it's the most significant factor left out of most analytics. Not only TOIqoc but individual TOI as well.

It explains almost every huge outlier in Scouts-vs-Analytics player debates - i.e. Weber, Bouwmeester on one end of guys coaches like but analytics do not, or Gardiner, Schultz on the other end that coaches don't love but analystics do. It almost comes down to tough usage depressing possession numbers and easy usage inflating them.