GDT: Draft Position Thread.

[Lunatik]

Well, I think we all know we're falling faster than a love addict on molly.

I am still cheering for us to win, but I'm not expecting much after trading Tanev and Hanifin, and I am also hoping the teams behind us win because I understand there is value in picking higher.

After being curb stomped by the Avs tonight we have 17 games left and the 11th worst record in the league, or as you know the 11th overall pick going into the draft lottery.


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I will update the following section as needed:

So this chart is kind of like a magic/tragic number chart except it shows how many wins/losses are needed to make it impossible for the Flames to catch/fall to them.

For teams ahead of us, a Flames loss, or a win for that specific team will lower the number by 0.5. For teams behind us, a Flames win, or a loss for that specific team will lower the number by 0.5.

Tie-breakers are not factored in.

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Click to read more...

 

[viper0220]

The teams that make it to the conference finals get picks 29-30, and the teams that make the cup finals get picks 31-32. Then picks 25-28 are reserved for division winners. Then the rest of the playoff teams (picks 17-24, but potentially up to 28) are just ranked by points.

So Vancouver getting eliminated in the 1st round would ensure that they don’t pick in the 29-32 range, and if they don’t win the div it’ll be in the 20-24 range because they’re top-5 in the league in points. But if they do win the division and don’t make conference finals they’ll be in the 25-28 range.

Assuming they finish 5th in the league (for example), if all the conference final teams were below them in the reg season standings, and they don’t win the division they’d pick 20-22, but potentially up to 25 (29-32 is the conference final teams, and then 25-28 are the 4 division winners, ranked in reverse order by points, and then the 4 better teams in the standings are 21-24 or potentially up to 27, depending on if any of these teams were also division winners). But for example if 3 conference final teams were above them in the standings and they didn’t win the div, they’d pick around 23 (29-32 conference final teams, and then the 25-28 are the division winners, and then 24 is the other team that finished ahead of them but didn’t make conference finals). Does that make sense?

Unless they keep dropping a few more spots in the standings (which is great for us as it looks like teams like Colorado and Dallas and Carolina might pass them at this rate), it almost for sure won’t be better than like 22/23.

Bottom line is we want them to lose in Round 1 or 2, and it doesn’t really matter which round as long as they don’t win the div or make conference finals. But it likely won’t make too much of a difference, especially because the conditions 4th we get from them becomes a 3rd if they make the conference finals anyway

Thank you for the information.

Teams passing the Canucks won't matter unless the Oilers are one of those teams.


So this is how the draft positions are laid out.

• Picks 1-16: Non-Playoff teams seeded in reverse order of regular season standings (before the lottery)
• Picks 17-28: Teams eliminated in Rounds 1 & 2 - there are 5 scenarios based on how many division winners advance past round 2.
  • If all Division winners reach the Conference Finals then all teams eliminated in in the first 2 rounds would be seeded in reverse order of regular season standings.
  • If 3 Division winners reach the Conference Finals then all teams eliminated in the first 2 rounds except the division winner eliminated would be seeded in reverse order of regular season standings, with the division winner eliminated picking 28
  • If 2 Division winners reach the Conference Finals then all teams eliminated in the first 2 rounds except the division winners eliminated would be seeded in reverse order of regular season standings, with the division winners eliminated picking 27 and 28
  • If 1 Division winner reaches the Conference Finals then all teams eliminated in the first 2 rounds except the division winners eliminated would be seeded in reverse order of regular season standings, with the division winners eliminated picking 26-28
  • If all division winners are eliminated in rounds 1 & 2 then all teams eliminated in the first 2 rounds except the division winners eliminated would be seeded in reverse order of regular season standings, with the division winners eliminated picking 25-28
• Picks 29-30: Losers in the Conference Finals
• Pick 31: Loser of Stanley Cup Final
• Pick 32: Stanley Cup Champ

If the Canucks win the division, the absolute best case scenario is their pick being 25th, this happens if all division winners are eliminated in round 1 or 2, and they are the lowest seeded division winner.

If the Oilers win the division and the Canucks are eliminated in the first 2 rounds, the best case (realistically) is their pick is in the 21-24 range.

The most likely outcome IMO is the pick will be 27-28, with the Canucks winning the division and getting eliminated in teh first 2 rounds.

Thanks.

 

[Body Checker]

There seems to almost be a top 13 consensus from all the articles I have read. Here’s another one below. We will get a solid player if stay in top 13.

https://thehockeynews.com/news/future-watch-weekly-how-deep-is-the-2024-nhl-draft

 

[Lunatik]

After Friday

Saturday's games...

• WPG @ NYI
• BOS @ PHI
• STL @ MIN
• DET @ NSH
• OTT @ NJD
• CGY @ VAN

 

[FLAMESFAN]

There seems to almost be a top 13 consensus from all the articles I have read. Here’s another one below. We will get a solid player if stay in top 13.

https://thehockeynews.com/news/future-watch-weekly-how-deep-is-the-2024-nhl-draft

If we add Greentree in the group, then its a top 14.
Out of all the others in that group though, he is the one that is sometimes ranked closer to 20

Yes, we're getting a good player wherever we end up. It would be nice to not have a team scoop up our guy right before us though.

We're at the top of that group of 5 teams drafting from 8th-12th (Sea/Pitt/Buff/NJ/CGY)
These spots are currently separated by only 2 points

 

[FLAMESFAN]

So some spots are starting to become clear.
It'll likely be SJ/Chi/Ana/CLM for the bottom 4 spots
Then a small group of Mont/Ott/Ari with Montreal trying as hard as possible to be the shittiest of that group.
Our group of 5 stays the same, with us at the top based on %

Glad to see NYI get a win lastnight and not make it a group of 6

 

[Mobiandi]

Plenty of time for us to fall to 8th last

 

[Lunatik]

After Saturday's Games

Sunday Games

WSH beat WPG 3-0
COL beat PIT 5-4 in OT
NJD @ NYI
FLA @ PHI
BUF @ CGY

 

[Lunatik]

Devils won 4-0
Philly lost 4-1
Montreal is up 4-0 on Seattle after 20

 

[Lunatik]

Upcoming Schedule for the next week

 

[JPeeper]

I expect the Blues and LA to come out hot, Blues are trying for a playoff spot and LA is trying to hold off Vegas. Only real challenge will be Chicago, but hoping Bedard has a big game on us. Seattle getting the Ducks twice should be good for us, but they just got spanked by Montreal who also sucks so who knows. Similarly the Pens getting the BJ's twice should also be helpful, but Pitt has been abysmal the past few weeks.

I think it's finally starting to sink in for Flames players that the playoffs are a hopeless endeavor, they're 12 points back with 2 teams ahead of them both by a good margin and only 12 games to play.

Hopefully Vancouver can start losing as well to drop in the overall standings to get that pick in the mid 20's.

 

[Lunatik]

OOT Scoreboard was VERY good to us tonight. Literally every team we wanted to win did.

We're sitting w/ the 9th pick after tonight

 

[Kahvi]

I think it's basically impossible for Flames to drop lower than 5th, and I think in best case we can see one of Montreal, Arizona, and Ottawa finishing higher than Flames.

Also Islanders and Devils are probably too far away for Flames to catch, so they wont finish higher than 11th.

So my guess is 8th place, and finally some luck with lottery giving Flames 3rd pick.

 

[Lunatik]

I think it's basically impossible for Flames to drop lower than 5th, and I think in best case we can see one of Montreal, Arizona, and Ottawa finishing higher than Flames.

Also Islanders and Devils are probably too far away for Flames to catch, so they wont finish higher than 11th.

So my guess is 8th place, and finally some luck with lottery giving Flames 3rd pick.

Right now mathematically speaking, San Jose and Chicago are out of reach. 1 Flames win/Anaheim loss will put the out of reach. The number of wins/losses to put Columbus out of reach is 4.

Those 4 team we absolutely will not fall to.

This is the number of Flames wins or their losses for all teams not in the playoffs a Magic/Tragic number of sorts.

1. SJS - out of reach
2. CHI - out of reach
3. AHM - 1 win/loss
4. CBJ - 4 win/loss
5. ARI - 7.5 win/loss
6. OTT - 9 win/loss
7. MTL - 9 win/loss
8. SEA - 11.5 win/loss
9. CGY
10. BUF - 11.5 win/loss
11. PGH - 12 win/loss
12. NJD - 12 win/loss
13. NYI - 13.5 win/loss
14. MIN - 14.5 win/loss
15. DET - 14.5 win/loss
16. STL - 15 win/loss

 

[Lunatik]

Current positions of all our picks

 

[herashak]

Should be enough draft ammo to move up from 29 too

 

[Lunatik]

Should be enough draft ammo to move up from 29 too

Not enough to get into teh top 13, which is where the big drop off is... I'm not sure it's worth giving up 29, 41 and 64 to move up to maybe 16 or 17. Hell it might even be smarter to trade down from 29 and try and add another 2nd.

 

[Volica]

Seattle has a better team, more and better youngsters than we do.
I fully expect them to have more points with the remaining games we have in the season.

Calgary's best bet is just stop at 8th. Montreal, Ottawa or Arizona won't pass you anytime soon. Gives you north of a 10% chance at the top two picks.

Doesn't seem like there's a consensus after the top 2/3 of this draft; so you hope your scouting can get you the best of the rest in terms of the next batch. It'd be funny to draft Parekh and have the two highest scoring defenders in the OHL under one umbrella lol.

 

[Ace Rimmer]

Should be enough draft ammo to move up from 29 too

Was just wondering how far up they could get with 29 + 41 and/or 64

 

[herashak]

Was just wondering how far up they could get with 29 + 41 and/or 64

Throw in vladar too

 

[Lunatik]

Throw in vladar too

and lose a spot?

 

[Tkachuk Norris]

9th gets us one of Lindstrom, Catton, Iginla, Helenius, Levshunov, Silayev, Buiim, or Dickinson.

Can’t go wrong with any of those players

 

[User1996]

9th gets us one of Lindstrom, Catton, Iginla, Helenius, Levshunov, Silayev, Buiim, or Dickinson.

Can’t go wrong with any of those players

Statistically speaking, yes you can. And I sure hope they can figure out which ones those are.

 

[Tkachuk Norris]

Statistically speaking, yes you can. And I sure hope they can figure out which ones those are.

I assume you are referring to Silayev. This team needs a physical shutdown D a lot. I have a lot of faith in Brewski and Morin to become top 4 D. But we desperately need someone who can shut down the cycle. His production is strong for a draft eligible KHL defender. He could be the next Chara. He’s a beast, destroys people routinely, and is 17 in a men’s league..

 

[Volica]

I assume you are referring to Silayev. This team needs a physical shutdown D a lot. I have a lot of faith in Brewski and Morin to become top 4 D. But we desperately need someone who can shut down the cycle. His production is strong for a draft eligible KHL defender. He could be the next Chara. He’s a beast, destroys people routinely, and is 17 in a men’s league..

I think he’s referring to landing on any of 8 names in a draft and having them all pan out accordingly.

 

[Ace Rimmer]

As Flames add draft picks, Tod Button and scouting staff staying busy

A treasure trove of draft picks means the Calgary Flames' scouting staff has a big job to do this spring at the NHL Entry Draft.

calgaryherald.com

Button is feeling optimistic about what the draft could bring.

“I’ll be honest with you, at the start of the year I was concerned with how deep the draft was,” Button admitted. “But, as usually happens, as the year goes on guys emerge that you may not have known about or they develop a little later.

“You always know who the top guys are. We added a Russian scout, which we didn’t have. We relied a lot on European scouts or InStat video, but we added Denis Grebeshkov this year and he’s been tremendous for us and now we have a way more extensive list. We know more Russian players than I’d say we would have in the past.”