Low Effort GDT Draft day 2 - 11:30AM - SN PART 3

[bert]

Point was seen as a smart, solid player who'd likely play on your 3rd line, but would never anchor your offense. Then he developed his offensive game, after he was drafted, and became who he is now.

That's what Norris has done. Smart, safe player when drafted, but "limited" offensive upside. Then, he explodes in the AHL in his first season. No guarantee that he becomes Point, but all I'm saying is that the players we talk about as offensive stars weren't always projected to turn out that way.

And I don't thing we've drafted anyone in the first round to blow away expectations to become a star. Am I wrong? Which one of Stuetzle, Sanderson will need to blow away expectations? Greig was taken after many had expected him to. He certainly wasn't a reach.

Just because a player isn't considere "flashy" doesn't mean they can't produce at the NHL level.

Point put up big numbers in his draft year then made a stacked team Canada team showing elite hockey sense then was Canadas captain. I like Norris but lets not get carried away here Point showed far more elite offensive ability.

 

[DaveMatthew]

Formenton perhaps. Has the speed to keep up.

Tkachuk will 100% play with Stuetzle and will have no problem keeping up.

 

[bert]

Tkachuk will 100% play with Stuetzle and will have no problem keeping up.

On the PP for sure where they should be lethal. Not convinced he will be his best match at even strength. I do think this team is missing another elite play driving, line carrying forward in the prospect pool or on the roster.

Tkachuk will be best matched with a heavy score off the cycle type linemate.

 

[DaveMatthew]

Point put up big numbers in his draft year then made a stacked team Canada team showing elite hockey sense then was Canadas captain. I like Norris but lets not get carried away here Point showed far more elite offensive ability.

He put up big numbers two years after he was drafted.

In his draft year, he put up 91 points in 72 games. Good numbers, but not great in junior. Certainly not offensive dynamo like Rossi or Perfetti. The year after his draft, he put up 87 points in 60 games. Again, good but not great.

The next season is when he broke out with 88 points in 48 games.

And he didn't play in the WJC until after he was drafted, and in his first go around, scored 4 points in 7 games. The next year, two after he was drafted, he was captain and put up 5 in 5.

Let's not re-write history.

 

[Sensinitis]

Formenton-Stutzle is an interesting combination. So much speed. Add someone like C. Brown, White or Pinto on RW and you have a pretty well-rounded line that can play against anyone.

 

[bert]

He put up big numbers two years after he was drafted.

In his draft year, he put up 91 points in 72 games. Good numbers, but not great in junior. Certainly not offensive dynamo like Rossi or Perfetti. The year after his draft, he put up 87 points in 60 games. Again, good but not great.

The next season is when he broke out with 88 points in 48 games.

And he didn't play in the WJC until after he was drafted, and in his first go around, scored 4 points in 7 games. The next years, two after he was drafted, he was captain and put up 5 in 5.

We'll see what Greig looks like in two years.

Those are amazing numbers for a player in his 17 year old year a much higher ppg than Rossi had.

He made the team during a lock out as an 18 year old and worked his way up to the lineup to play with Mcdavid. He never should have dropped to the third round.

 

[DaveMatthew]

Those are amazing numbers for a player in his 17 year old year a much higher ppg than Rossi had.

He made the team during a lock out as an 18 year old and worked his way up to the lineup to play with Mcdavid. He never should have dropped to the third round.

What?

Brayden Point put up 91 points in 72 games in his draft year.
Marco Rossi put up 120 points in 56 games.
Cole Perfetti put up 111 points in 61 games.

It's not close.

He dropped to the third round because he didn't have "high-end offensive potential" and "projected" to be a 2nd or 3rd line player. He didn't skate fast enough and his dangles weren't as good. It's the same stuff people say about Norris, Pinto, Formenton, etc.

 

[bert]

What?

Brayden Point put up 91 points in 72 games in his draft year.
Marco Rossi put up 120 points in 56 games.
Cole Perfetti put up 111 points in 61 games.

It's not close.

He dropped to the third round because he didn't have "high-end offensive potential" and "projected" to be a 2nd or 3rd line player. It's the same stuff people say about Norris, Pinto, Formenton, etc.

Point was 17 in his draft year in Rossi's 17 year old year he out up 58 points.

No Norris, Pinto and Formenton did not score 91 points in 77 games in their 17 year old season. None scored at that ppg pace not even close.

Point is the outlier here it was clearly a massive miss on his draft he is an anomaly. I dont know why you are trying to argue these players have his potential.

 

[DaveMatthew]

Point was 17 in his draft year in Rossi's 17 year old year he out up 58 points.

No Norris, Pinto and Formenton did not score 91 points in 77 games in their draft year. None scored at that ppg pace not even close.

Point is the outlier here it was clearly a massive miss on his draft he is an anomaly. I dont know why you are trying to argue these players have his potential.

I'm arguing that when Brayden Point was 18, 19 and 20, he didn't have Brayden Point's potential. That's why he was a 3rd round pick, not a 1st round pick. Not even a 2nd round pick.

So it's a little odd to confidently declare that our prospects, who are also 18, 19 and 20, don't have top-6 offensive potential. Even after 3 of them have already put up over point-per-game seasons in the AHL.

And Point was 18 years old and 4 months when drafted.
Rossi would have been 18 years old and 9 months if the draft was held as normal, in June.

So a 5 month difference accounts 30 point difference in 16 less games. Sure.

Point was never looked at as a top-end offensive prospect like Rossi. That's why Rossi was taken at 9th overall.

 

[Micklebot]

Point was seen as a smart, solid player who'd likely play on your 3rd line, but would never anchor your offense. Then he developed his offensive game, after he was drafted, and became who he is now.

he was the 3rd leading draft eligible skater in the WHL, lets not pretend his offense came out of nowhere. His issue was nobody thought he could transition because of his size.

That's what Norris has done. Smart, safe player when drafted, but "limited" offensive upside. Then, he explodes in the AHL in his first season. No guarantee that he becomes Point, but all I'm saying is that the players we talk about as offensive stars weren't always projected to turn out that way.

Norris was very different than point in his draft year; he was a physical specimen, top performer at the combine. He was more of a jack of all trades though, so I'd agree seen as a safe pick.

And I don't think we've drafted anyone in the first round to blow away expectations to become a star. Am I wrong? Which one of Stuetzle, Sanderson will need to blow away expectations? Greig was taken after many had expected him to. He certainly wasn't a reach.

Greig is who I was talking about. I don't mind the pick, but he absolutely needs to blow away expectations to become a star, he's a safe bet to be a 3rd liner, maybe middle 6 guy, but it will take a lot of luck to get more than that. We could have targeted guys with more upside, but didn't. There really is no reason to be talking about him alongside Marchand, that's only going to lead to disappointment, so I don't see why you'd do so.

Just because a player isn't considered "flashy" doesn't mean they can't produce at the NHL level.

Ok, not sure I suggested any such thing.

People here, for some reason, think that Norris, Formenton, Batherson and Pinto are not "top-6" offensive prospects, despite producing like "top-6" offensive prospects. Yet if we had drafted Amirov or Peterka, they would be, and they'd say we finally drafted "skill".

Ok. so, people have been pretty universal in calling Batherson a top 6 offensive prospect, unless you're talking about right after he was drafted in the 4th round. Not sure how that relates to passing on two guys ranked in the 1st round. Same goes for Formenton to a lesser degree. In fact, all the guys you mentioned have developed well and exceeded pretty much everyone's expectations (not just sense fans), and only Norris was a 1st round talent, who we had nothing to do with drafting, so not sure why we're talking about him.

 

[Micklebot]

What?

Brayden Point put up 91 points in 72 games in his draft year.
Marco Rossi put up 120 points in 56 games.
Cole Perfetti put up 111 points in 61 games.

It's not close.

He dropped to the third round because he didn't have "high-end offensive potential" and "projected" to be a 2nd or 3rd line player. He didn't skate fast enough and his dangles weren't as good. It's the same stuff people say about Norris, Pinto, Formenton, etc.

Point dropped to the 3rd because he was a damn midget not because he didn't have high end offensive potential. People didn't think he could translate to the NHL, Rossi has 27 pounds on point when he was drafted...

 

[DaveMatthew]

Ok. so, people have been pretty universal in calling Batherson a top 6 offensive prospect, unless you're talking about right after he was drafted in the 4th round. Not sure how that relates to passing on two guys ranked in the 1st round. Same goes for Formenton to a lesser degree. In fact, all the guys you mentioned have developed well and exceeded pretty much everyone's expectations (not just sense fans), and only Norris was a 1st round talent, who we had nothing to do with drafting, so not sure why we're talking about him.

Have you not read these boards? This thread?

You need some elite skill they literally have no one to play with Stutzle.

That's why we're on this topic. I claimed that Batherson, Norris, Formenton, L.Brown are skill players who can easily play with Stuetzle. Apparently, many disagree.

All those players, IMO, have elite skill. Not generational skill. Not Hart trophy skill. But top-6 forwards on a Stanley Cup contender skill.

Drake Batherson has high-end offensive potential. So does Logan Brown. So does Josh Norris.

Will they develop like Point? Who knows. Odds are, no. Most don't. But they're every bit as talented as prospects.

And agreed, there's no sense in talking about Greig like Marchand. We will likely be disappointed. But there's also no reason to compare Peterka or Marat Khusnutdinov to top-end offensive NHL players. It's the same thing.

Greig has as good a chance at becoming Marchand as Peterka does of becoming Pastrnak.

 

[Sensators]

The Kyle Dubas model will never work.

Craig Button relayed a quote Bryan Murray once told him on TSN Overdrive today: "If you keep drafting nice small and skilled players, you'll have a nice small and skilled team."

I much prefer a philosophy of teams like Boston and Los Angeles, who've shown they can win. Dorion is using their template.

The only small player drafted semi-high was hirvonen, miettinen was drafted way late and ovchinnikov is 5'11 and young/underdeveloped. They have their problems and could use more size on defense but the idea that you need size all over and esp all over at forward is oversimplified. You can get that through FA a lot easier than finding skill. They need defense and it wasn't really addressed in this draft but they still got good value with their picks and took some nice swings.
TBL showed they could win with small and big players. Drafting all of one or the other is so boring. Judging a teams draft based off the height of their players chosen is ridiculous.

 

[HSF]

Toronto is super soft you can’t load up a team with pure skill in all positions and think you will get anywhere in the playoffs when the rules change. Tampa literally added grit throughout their lineup and looked like a new team

I think it’s important to balance both and I think Toronto knows that now I expect them to try and add grit like Simmonds etc

 

[DaveMatthew]

The only small player drafted semi-high was hirvonen, miettinen was drafted way late and ovchinnikov is 5'11 and young/underdeveloped. They have their problems and could use more size on defense but the idea that you need size all over and esp all over at forward is oversimplified. You can get that through FA a lot easier than finding skill. They need defense and it wasn't really addressed in this draft but they still got good value with their picks and took some nice swings.
TBL showed they could win with small and big players. Drafting all of one or the other is so boring. Judging a teams draft based off the height of their players chosen is ridiculous.

The Leafs, in the last 3 years, have drafted 27 players.

14 are 5'10 or under.
18 are under 6'0 tall.
Just 1 is over 6'2.

That's a clear pattern, and seemingly reflected on the NHL roster.

It hasn't worked. Despite having some of the best top-end talent in the NHL, the Leafs haven't won a playoff round since drafting Rielly, Marner, Nylander and Matthews.

Maybe Dubas thinks that players are under-valued because of their size, and the smartest guy in the room is trying to take advantage of that arbitrage, but it hasn't worked.

 

[ijif]

Toronto is a small and skilled team. They can't get past the first round of the playoffs. Look at their roster from their loss to Columbus: Kapanen, Nylander, Johnsson, Kerfoot, Barrie, Robertson... too many of the same, small, skilled players. Who did they draft this year? More small, skilled players.

Boston has some skill guys (Pastrnak, Krejci) surrounded by physical, gritty players (Chara, Coyle, DeBrusk, Kuraly, Carlo, etc).

You definitely need skill. But you need more than that to build a team.

Tampa used to be all skill. They choked in the first round, went out and got Coleman, Goodrow, Bogosian, Maroon, etc, and look at them now.

I agree with this, but my issue is calling Toronto small. I think a fair, simple, and intuitive measure of size for a team is average height and weight. I am too lazy to calculate the numbers for the roster during the playoffs, but based on opening-night rosters, Toronto was average height and above-average weight. Boston, Chicago, and Pittsburgh usually run small teams based on averages, and they have been very successful over the last decade and a bit, so it seems as if smaller teams can be successful in the playoffs. I can see some minor problems with using average height and weight, so if you have a better definition of size and size alone, I am open to using that definition and supporting the assertion that Toronto is small.

 

[bert]

Have you not read these boards? This thread?



That's why we're on this topic. I claimed that Batherson, Norris, Formenton, L.Brown are skill players who can easily play with Stuetzle. Apparently, many disagree.

All those players, IMO, have elite skill. Not generational skill. Not Hart trophy skill. But top-6 forwards on a Stanley Cup contender skill.

Drake Batherson has high-end offensive potential. So does Logan Brown. So does Josh Norris.

Will they develop like Point? Who knows. Odds are, no. Most don't. But they're every bit as talented as prospects.

And agreed, there's no sense in talking about Greig like Marchand. We will likely be disappointed. But there's also no reason to compare Peterka or Marat Khusnutdinov to top-end offensive NHL players. It's the same thing.

Greig has as good a chance at becoming Marchand as Peterka does of becoming Pastrnak.

I agree with all of your points but the bolded is simply not true. Agree to dissagree.

 

[Gil Gunderson]

Sens have gone to the OHL 1 time in their last 45 picks, that's a very, very, very strange %.

If a true that the OHL is removing contact this year that’s probably a good thing (for now).

In reality they’ll probably just cancel the season.

 

[DaveMatthew]

Sens have gone to the OHL 1 time in their last 45 picks, that's a very, very, very strange %.

Interestingly, it's been a drop since 2012, when they picked Ceci.

Between 2009-2012, they took 6 OHLers.

2011 and 2012 were especially bad. 3 OHLers out of 4 first round picks: Ceci, Puempel and Noesen.

Those picks seemed to have scared them away. Can't say I blame them...

 

[God Flower]

I wonder how the organization views it's center depth? We have a bunch of centers, who also happen to play the wing. Who do they see playing up the middle in the long run? They seem to have some holes on the right side, so my guess is players like White, Norris, and Pinto are prime targets to shift to the right wing. Lots of options for line combinations though.

Stutzle C/LW
Norris C/RW
Pinto C/RW
White C/RW
Grieg C/LW

and of course L. Brown who is a natural center.

 

[bert]

Interestingly, it's been a drop since 2012, when they picked Ceci.

Between 2009-2012, they took 6 OHLers.

2011 and 2012 were especially bad. 3 OHLers out of 4 first round picks: Ceci, Puempel and Noesen.

Those picks seemed to have scared them away. Can't say I blame them...

Weird year to avoid the OHL it was the best draft class its had since 2008.

 

[DaveMatthew]

Weird year to avoid the OHL it was the best draft class its had since 2008.

Certainly at the top-end, with 5 OHLers going in the top-10. But hard to say that Ottawa avoided the league when we had to take Stutzle, and preferred Sanderson.

Interestingly, after the top 10, it's not so clear:

USHL: 36/207 players
Sweden: 30/207 players
WHL: 28/207 players
OHL: 26/207 players
QMJHL: 18/207 players
Russia: 18/207 players

For whatever reason, we seem to skew American (USHL, NCAA, HS) and WHL.

 

[Rodzilla]

Im interested to see where the team sees Stutzle. I heard during the draft he’d like to be a C but would play where the team asks. I dont know im curious. He looked good on C at the WJC at times.

I really like Formenton, but I am not sure he’s someone I want paired with Stutzle. Im disappointed by Duclair not being signed, it is what it is but we kinda have holes on the wings imo

 

[Korpse]

Certainly at the top-end, with 5 OHLers going in the top-10. But hard to say that Ottawa avoided the league when we had to take Stutzle, and preferred Sanderson.

Interestingly, after the top 10, it's not so clear:

USHL: 36/207 players
Sweden: 30/207 players
WHL: 28/207 players
OHL: 26/207 players
QMJHL: 18/207 players
Russia: 18/207 players

For whatever reason, we seem to skew American (USHL, NCAA, HS) and WHL.

There's probably apart of their drafting philosophy. I personally think the USHL is the better development path especially for prospects you are looking at beyond the top40 or so. I find a good number CHL players are forced to the AHL before they are ready for that next step. College hockey is a pretty nice buffer between junior hockey and pro hockey. The NCAA path is a pretty underrated route in terms of development among fans.

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

Man, really wanted Peterka, have no idea why we never nabbed him. Looks like a Clarke McArthur type player. Maybe Sens thought Jarventie was gonna be gone by next pick.