I'm not saying he's a bad prospect, and I don't think he's going to be a bust. I think saying he's on the same level as Svechnikov and Zadina and would be doing the same things they are in juniors based on U17, U18, and U20 (where Svechnikov didn't get first line or PP1 time for most of the games) is disingenuous because while the quality of competition is similar (Zadina/Svechnikov probably have it harder because Brady doesn't have to play against the US), the quality of their team mates isn't close.
The leading his team in assists thing is fine, but I'm wary on using a season of assists to prove his offensive prowess. Look at Skjei, for example, before and after he was drafted he was never seen as a guy who had any significant offensive upside, his rookie year he scores like 40 points or whatever it was, but someone here crunched the numbers and a lot of them were secondary assists, and to the surprise of some people, he didn't replicate his output again this year.
And I originally had a problem with the list of other players that did something similar to Tkachuk that you tweeted, but I realize it's probably because you want to include players that are currently at their peak/have peaked to give it that kind of context. But I'd rather look at Tkachuk compared to contemporary prospects/players like Keller, Jost, Connor, Boeser, etc.
I don't hate Tkachuk, I just don't see the offensive upside that the people who are high on him see. I think he fits in somewhere in the last half of the top 10 this year, and in regards to this thread and Rangers specific needs there's quite a few other players I'd take over him
The bolded looks like a pretty ridiculous statement. Zadina played on lines with Kaut, Chytil and Necas at every major international tournament. Svechnikov played with Lipanov, Denisenko, Kostin, Chekhovich. I mean, come on. Every kid I listed is either a first rounder, expected first rounder or kids considered legit NHL prospects. Tkachuk played with Josh Norris, Evan Barratt , Sean Dhooghe and Jacob Tortora. Who would you rather play with?
The Russians won the silver at the 2015 U17 Worlds. US didnt medal.
The Czechs will have anywhere from 10-12 draft picks (after this year) from the roster at the U17 and U18s. The NTDP roster from those same tournaments will have 11 or 12, depending on if Hutsko gets drafted.
Keller, Jost, Connor and Boeser were not drafted out of college. They were college freshman
after they were drafted. They all played in the USHL or Junior A their draft year. That's a full year's difference.
I listed those former NHL players because they were college freshman. I also have the entire list of every NCAA freshman who was drafted in the first round. The only NCAA freshman forward drafted in the first round in the last 10 years who significantly outproduced Brady Tkachuk (by 10+ points) was Jack Eichel. Jordan Schroeder was second by 14 points.
College coaches don't like entrusting freshman with big minutes. Same goes for the CHL with draft-2 rookies. They play the older guys out of respect and giving them exposure to get signed or drafted. That's why leading your team as a freshman in any major stat category is a big deal. That's why this argument was stupid from the get-go, because so many fans (especially on these boards) value CHL gaudy stats over moderate totals in the USHL and NCAA -- two leagues where clearly and factually more difficult to score in.
It is simply not common in this day and age for an NCAA freshman in his draft year to put up big numbers. Thirty or 40 points in the NCAA as a freshman (against 19-23 year olds) is just as impressive as 70 or 80 points in the CHL against 17-21 year olds. NHL GMs and scouts know that.
Look at Kieffer Bellows. Great, great example, IMO, and not an outlier. Lights up the USHL as a draft-1, lights up the NTDP in his draft year, goes to BU (with Keller as his center) and sucks hard as a freshman, then leaves for the WHL and lights it up.