Douglas Murray: What a hit!

belko

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Mar 13, 2002
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Well, the fancystats for Murray say this: when he's on the ice 5-on-5, the Habs bleed shots against, they bleed chances against, and they do little to nothing good offensively.

He hits hard, but the available data suggests that he's not good at actual defense. Now two games is an extremely small sample, but it's been a while since I've seen a statline that looked quite this dismal. In his defense, the Habs' current fourth line is also abysmal so he might not be getting any help there then.

Still, he whole "bleeds scoring chances" isn't exactly the most desirable characteristic for a defensive defenseman. And needless to say his offensive contribution is practically nil. Perhaps this is one of the reason he only played 26:21 over his two games, which is a single slightly busy game for Subban or Markov.

So far, the data makes him look like he's exactly as advertised: a Komisarek type, impressive hitter, but ineffective defender. And the numbers certainly don't challenge my initial assessment that he's not a NHL player.

It's very important not to confuse hitting with defense. Hitting is not bad, it can often be a very useful tool for defense (see: Emelin, Alexei), but conversely a guy who hits a lot is not necessarily an effective defender.

This is exactly where fancystats are useful: to help us look past the eye-popping hits that stick to the mind, and look at whether a guy's actually being effective where it matters. And to me, a defensive defenseman's role is to prevent goals against, which is best done by preventing scoring chances.

Hopefully Emelin gets healthy soon and the Habs can ice a defenseman who is a hard hitter and effective.

There are many aspects of a physical game like Murray's that simply cannot be quantified. Is a winger less likely to choose to try to squeeze past him after taking a bit hit earlier in the game? Would he be less likely to go into the corners? Is he still at 100% after? Is a player as willing to get in Price's grill when it's Murray feeding him a steady diet of cross-checks instead of Diaz? Even a moment's hesitation as a result of an earlier hit could change a game.

These aspects cannot be discounted; they have a tangible impact on how a game unfolds, so a physical player like Murray simply can't be called ineffective based solely on the quantifiable.
 

TheGoalJudge

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Feb 12, 2007
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Well, the fancystats for Murray say this: when he's on the ice 5-on-5, the Habs bleed shots against, they bleed chances against, and they do little to nothing good offensively.

He hits hard, but the available data suggests that he's not good at actual defense. Now two games is an extremely small sample, but it's been a while since I've seen a statline that looked quite this dismal. In his defense, the Habs' current fourth line is also abysmal so he might not be getting any help there then.

Still, he whole "bleeds scoring chances" isn't exactly the most desirable characteristic for a defensive defenseman. And needless to say his offensive contribution is practically nil. Perhaps this is one of the reason he only played 26:21 over his two games, which is a single slightly busy game for Subban or Markov.

So far, the data makes him look like he's exactly as advertised: a Komisarek type, impressive hitter, but ineffective defender. And the numbers certainly don't challenge my initial assessment that he's not a NHL player.

It's very important not to confuse hitting with defense. Hitting is not bad, it can often be a very useful tool for defense (see: Emelin, Alexei), but conversely a guy who hits a lot is not necessarily an effective defender.

This is exactly where fancystats are useful: to help us look past the eye-popping hits that stick to the mind, and look at whether a guy's actually being effective where it matters. And to me, a defensive defenseman's role is to prevent goals against, which is best done by preventing scoring chances.

Hopefully Emelin gets healthy soon and the Habs can ice a defenseman who is a hard hitter and effective.

Well to me, the most useful stat for Dmen is goals against (and Murray has zero) because for all we know, these shots could be coming from the perimeter all game since forwards are afraid to crash the net.

Stats and visuals must work together. You raised the point about shots and now the next game, I will watch and see if it's true. Are these actual scoring chances or rushed attempts on net? Because the difference is large.
 

overlords

#DefundCBC
Aug 16, 2008
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Well to me, the most useful stat for Dmen is goals against (and Murray has zero) because for all we know, these shots could be coming from the perimeter all game since forwards are afraid to crash the net.

Stats and visuals must work together. You raised the point about shots and now the next game, I will watch and see if it's true. Are these actual scoring chances or rushed attempts on net? Because the difference is large.

Did you pvr the last game? re-watch it and it will be clear.
 

TheGoalJudge

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Feb 12, 2007
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Did you pvr the last game? re-watch it and it will be clear.

I didn't so it's obviously possible, maybe even likely that Murray is not that great. After all, he is a depth UFA signing.

I just don't like the disharmony between stats and visuals. Both are valuable. The visuals should back up the stats, all I'm saying.
 

overlords

#DefundCBC
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I didn't so it's obviously possible, maybe even likely that Murray is not that great. After all, he is a depth UFA signing.

I just don't like the disharmony between stats and visuals. Both are valuable. The visuals should back up the stats, all I'm saying.

You're right, sometimes the stats and visuals don't line up very well. And as mathman said, small samples are dangerous territory. In the last game, however, it's pretty cut and dry, IMO. one of the reasons I love having my habs games pvr'd is so that I can go back and check things I'm arguing about with people. Works wonders.
 

Grant McCagg

@duhduhduh
Dec 13, 2010
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Fancystats attempt to be an unbiased representation of what happens on the ice, and may be indicators of 'good' team play. However, the model to which fancystats apply does not accurately represent all facets of hockey including hitting, momentum, aggressiveness on the ice, etc. Like it or not, there's an important mental component to hockey that is about perception of your team and the opponent's team.

The Habs have a reputation out there, and it's that due to their small forward group, they are soft and easily pushed around. Same goes for the blueline with the exception of PK and Emelin. I think this reputation does lead to other teams taking more liberties with the Habs and playing with far more confidence and aggressiveness out on the ice. Having guys like Murray and Emelin (and Prust and Parros) will make other players question such an approach to playing against the Habs.

Lars Eller and Louis Leblanc said that the way they play depends almost entirely on confidence (I'm paraphrasing). Will a team knowing its Fenwick and Corsi give it the confidence to play better? No, and that's where leadership and the ability to stand up for your team and teammates comes in, and is therefore where guys like Murray and Prust come in.

Agreed. I didn't resort to pansystats when evaluating Murray - I actually watched him play. Was he great? No - he is going to have some struggles due to his skating, but he read the play well, cleared the crease, wallpapered a few guys, blocked a few shots, and didn't turn over the puck.

I've been more than happy with his play thus far. He is going to change momentum of games for the good more often than the bad, especially at home - the Mtl crowd loves big hits - he'll get the crowd going when the team needs a momentum shift.
 

M.C.G. 31

Damn, he brave!
Oct 6, 2008
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I'm going to be pissed if Boullion is in the lineup over Murray when Emelin returns. Having TWO heavy hitters like Emelin and Murray would be great.
 

Habs

We should have drafted Michkov
Feb 28, 2002
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I'm going to be pissed if Boullion is in the lineup over Murray when Emelin returns. Having TWO heavy hitters like Emelin and Murray would be great.

I hate Bouillion, but he saved us a goal last night and has played well the last couple of games.
 

Hoople

Registered User
Mar 7, 2011
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His point is that he doesn't understand (not particularly) advanced statistics.

No, my point is that Fenwick does not measure intangibles that affect the outcome of games.

And my other point is that so many people in Montreal have grown comfortable with a defense that is soft as a down pillow that they have no clue what a rugged and physical DMan like Murray can do for a team. And no, its not on a stat sheet.
 

Hoople

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Mar 7, 2011
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If you worship Fenwick you probably cannot follow SH's posts.

I am guessing that he doesn't care and probably did not even look up MAB's fenwick. SH's actual point, is that Murray makes contributions to the team that are historically not made by the rabble of mediocrity that has populated the Habs third pairing in recent years, contributions not necessarily captured by any particular over-fetishized simpleton statistic.


Pretty much.

Opposing teams forwards now that we have Murray....

you_think_youre_tough.gif
 
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dackelljuneaubulis02

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Oct 13, 2012
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I don't know, he's been back two games and we've only had one goal scored on us since then. Both goalies had a lot to do with that but I still think he's a steadying presence back there.

I haven't seen any glaring errors seems to keep everything to the outside. I would've expected him to be worse than he has in his first two games back. I'm sure he only gets better.
 

Quagmier

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Feb 6, 2003
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Agreed. I didn't resort to pansystats when evaluating Murray - I actually watched him play. Was he great? No - he is going to have some struggles due to his skating, but he read the play well, cleared the crease, wallpapered a few guys, blocked a few shots, and didn't turn over the puck.

I've been more than happy with his play thus far. He is going to change momentum of games for the good more often than the bad, especially at home - the Mtl crowd loves big hits - he'll get the crowd going when the team needs a momentum shift.

Not to mention he is, by all accounts, a smart guy, good teammate, fun guy to be around and likely a good locker room presence. Every team i've ever played for had a guy like Murray. They were the "beauties". Best part of playing hockey was getting to know, and witness the insanity of, those guys.

My favorite teammate was this slightly out of shape, slow moving, red headed dman that was a hot mess off the ice, amazing in the room/practices, and gave it his all when the puck dropped. Every single game he'd show up with a Tim Horton's cup and kept it around for his dip after the game. One year one of our team all-stars was out of town for the all-star game, and we needed a 2nd rep, so at his suggestion we sent him as a joke. He had a gordie howe hattrick (he dropped the mits in an all-star game).

Murray reminds me exactly of that type of guy. While i get that, at the NHL level, having a guy like that is less of a priority than it was back in Junior, I gotta think it helps. He also brings a unique element to the team and so long as he is put in the right situation he will do more good than harm (i have to think that when Emelin finally gets back it will be a battle between Cube and Murray for that 6th spot...as a pair they will be scary at times).
 

Dominator13

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Feb 20, 2003
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Every ******* thread we have about a physical player gets highjacked by stats that don't value intangibles. Therrien brought HUGE praise to the physical element that Murray brought the last 2 games.
 
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Habs

We should have drafted Michkov
Feb 28, 2002
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I thought he was awful the game before last. Might be because of playing on his off side now that Murray is in the lineup.

Did you know how hard it was for me to pay a compliment to that useless blueliner?
 

Hemlor

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Jan 27, 2007
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Mathman is not even a hockey fan anyways, he's just some nerd looking for people to talk too. Every ******* thread we have about a physical player gets highjacked by stats that don't value intangibles. Therrien brought HUGE praise to the physical element that Murray brought the last 2 games.

Regardless of whether you agree or disagree with Mathman or the stats in general, resorting to name-calling usually means you have no real argument.

2 games is much too small a sample size to conclude anything, except that Murray has had some huge hits that were really fun to watch, that's it. If one tries to argue that after 2 games his stats suggest that he, or the Habs 'bleed' scoring chances, then one must also admit that in that same 2 game period, the Habs have allowed 1 goal, which Murray was not on the ice for. What does this mean? Absolutely nothing
 

Hoople

Registered User
Mar 7, 2011
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Regardless of whether you agree or disagree with Mathman or the stats in general, resorting to name-calling usually means you have no real argument.

2 games is much too small a sample size to conclude anything, except that Murray has had some huge hits that were really fun to watch, that's it. If one tries to argue that after 2 games his stats suggest that he, or the Habs 'bleed' scoring chances, then one must also admit that in that same 2 game period, the Habs have allowed 1 goal, which Murray was not on the ice for. What does this mean? Absolutely nothing

I see.

One goal given up by the Habs and zero goals when Murray is on the ice means nothing.

Let me guess if that one goal given up by the Habs happened when Murray was on the ice. Would that mean nothing as well?

No need to answer. There are quite a few posters here waiting for the first goal against with Murray on the ice to blow up with the Murray bashing. (You know who you are......and so do we.;) )
 

overlords

#DefundCBC
Aug 16, 2008
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I see.

One goal given up by the Habs and zero goals when Murray is on the ice means nothing.

Let me guess if that one goal given up by the Habs happened when Murray was on the ice. Would that mean nothing as well?

No need to answer. There are quite a few posters here waiting for the first goal against with Murray on the ice to blow up with the Murray bashing. (You know who you are......and so do we.;) )

Read his entire sentence. he wasn't arguing one way or the other, more that we need more time to properly evaluate Murray ;)
 

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