Post-Game Talk: Don't wanna let us wearing our Red Home Jersey? No Problem Mr Dundon... (Canes 4-6 Habs)

[cphabs]

No, you obviously don't get it.

What don’t I get? Seriously.

 

[Scriptor]

We might be misunderstanding each other. I never advocated tanking or sucking. I've said multiple times how happy I am with this surprisingly good team. I have no wish to see Domi, Tatar and Drouin stop playing well, in the hopes of a lucky draft number. But if we want success, there will be risk. Thus far, no market has abandoned its team for taking calculated risks to pursue a Cup.

All I've been saying is pick a timeline and aim for it. If Kotkaniemi and Suzuki look to enter their primes in, say, two years, then build the strongest roster you can for that future date. Who will be better by then? Who will be declining? If we can acquire a great prospect for Petry, Byron, Weber, etc., then in two years that prospect will likely have a bigger impact than the two-years-older vet we traded away. Every recent Cup winner has a strong homegrown core of stars. Habs haven't had that in years. The approach of buying UFAs and trading for quick-fixes has left us nowhere. The team can remain fun and competitive while trading up for better picks or prospects.

There's a lot of interesting points to cover in the bolded paragraph.

I agree about picking a timeline. I'm, also against blindly trading away veterans for futures in the hopes of matching that timeline (I'm not saying this is YOUR suggestion).

MON can (SHOULD) target which veterans they feel are not part of the conversation by the time we are ready to compete in a 4 of 7 series against contenders. Then, there are many ways to use those assets to better the team and the established timeline plays a great role in determining what avenue to follow.

For starters, there's no way Kotkaniemi, Suzuki, Poehling or Brook, for example, will be entering their primes. That doesn't, however, mean that they won't be at a level where they cannot contribute to contending for a Cup. Tatar is entering or already in his prime, Gallagher will be entering his prime, if he hasn't already, rather shortly, Domi, Drouin and Lehkonen will be entering their primes in 3 or4 years, bordering on it in two years. Skilled players like Kotkaniemi, Suzuki and Poehling, at 75% of what their primes will amount to can still be core contributors on a team with the others listed being in their primes or very near it.

We also have to consider what it takes to move a veteran (will we need to hold back salary/Cap space or will we have to accept a bad contract in return and for how long will that be?) we might have identified as expendable for the purpose of a Cup run. We must weigh that against Cap concerns by the time we are contending (or close to contending) and see how doing so would impact our ability to stay competitive for a long enough window of opportunity.

We also have to measure what the return might be for the veterans we have targeted and determine if we gauge their worth in secrecy (which could blow up in our faces via a leak from the other GM), or if we inform the player without being certain that the trade value would be sufficient to move them while making a solid deal. A player that feels unwanted may actually force us to take a lesser return than we were expecting.

Beyond all of this, we also have to consider the maturing players that we need to continue to develop as we strive to reach our timeline with the team's engine at maximum capacity. Development isn't done in a vacuum and requires certain veterans to assist in the process.

Now, we have to estimate the declining value of a veteran over time and determine if a lesser return of X is worth keeping the veteran a little longer to help rear a younger player in the short run or to help stabilize the back end so the forwards can continue to play to their strengths rather than concentrate on compensation for bad defense?

Then, there's the whole consideration of the upcoming expansion draft and how that affects moves for the future we might be considering to make in the short term.

Will acquiring a player equal to another player, only to have to lose one of the two afterwards because there isn't enough room to protect them both worthwhile? Isn't that a waste of the asset that was given to acquire such a player?

Is trading a forward to acquire a LHD with doing when you would now have too many Ds that you would like to or be required to keep? Shouldn't you then rather try to package/move a veteran like Petry instead for some help at LD, with yu likely already protecting Weber and Juulsen on the right side?

Petry will be a UFA the year of the expansion draft and, while back room deals in hush hush overtones might sound like a plausible reality to some, with Petry allegedly agreeing to re-sign with MON despite any offers that might come his way if he is not re-signed and protected, I'd rather not lose Petry for nothing in return if I can get a worthwhile compensation today!

MON can also keep targeted veterans as trade chips to move up on draft day when one of their favourite prospects has been left unclaimed beyond the rank of selection that MON would have claimed him.

Or we can acquire a prospect for one or more of the veterans we are willing to trade.

Or simply draft picks.

Plenty of options and it is much more intricate a process than some make it out to be, with a lot of factors to take into consideration. However, MON cannot sit idly on its hands and do nothing. It must establish a plan that does start by identify in which veterans are superfluous, both for development of the younger players and once that timeline to compete has manifested itself.

Perhaps we trade Petry now (or Petry as part of a package), with a timeline of three years before we are ready to compete, for immediate, younger help on LD that can take advantage of Weber as a mentor for the next couple of years. Then, while perhaps losing value for the return, we also trade Weber if Brook and Juulsen have properly developed, along with the LD that Weber has helped rear.

If we feel that Byron's value won't go down over time given that he starts a 4-yr contract next season at a 3.4M AVV, perhaps it is better to keep him for a few years to help stabilize a line in case of injury and to positively impact younger players' confidence level by doing so. Then, in the third year, when we deem to be ready to contend, maybe we trade him at the deadline for a much needed rental upgrade at D.

Obviously, it always depends on the return. If someone offered us a blue chip prospect at LD, a 1st round pick and a young, top-6, scoring winger for Weber, I'd flip that veteran right away and take my chances with Petry, perhaps even re-signing him as a UFA in two years, if need be.

It's certainly less stressful as armchair GMs to look at the opportunities than it might be for the actual GMs in the hot seats.

 

[thewall]

People who wants to trade Petry now want a 1st and a prospect for him. The 1st will be a late rnd pick and we hope to draft a D that will maybe become someone like Petry. The prospect wont be like a Suzuki so why not wait at least 1 more year before trading him.

 

[scrubadam]

Something unexpected? Like what? Making the playoffs extrapolating on their record to date?

Yes, he deviated from his "reset" plan. He went hard after ROR and Tavares -- he had no business doing that if he was truly committed to it.

Also, he kept saying how the team was going for it this year, even after he had found out that Weber's injury was worse than thought and that he was going to miss a significant part of the year.

We don't know what a lame duck GM who is coming off a miserable season and had his share of mishaps, is capable of doing. Won't be the first time he deviates from a slogan/plan based on a amassing a young core. We had to wait 6 years to see him actually draft in a manner consistent with the idea of "building through the draft".

The telling move will be whether he goes for a significant piece between now and the TDL and the price he'll cough up. Only then will we know if he's continuing with this summer's youth movement or whether he's going to veer off again into trying to make the playoffs as soon as this year.

Like I said in my post MB isn't going to sell the farm. He has not done that at a TDL yet, he didn't do it this summer, the leopard isn't changing his spots all of a sudden.

He will put our 2nd/3rd and guy like Hudon/Lernout in play, maybe someone we drafted in the 2nd later rounds a year or two ago. But he isn't going to sell 1sts or top prospects like Brook/Suzuki or young guys like Drouin/Domi/Lek etc...

But don't worry after he goes out and gets an Ott or Martinsen like guy you can come back and bash MB for not acquiring that LD or 1st line winger to make a run at the playoffs

 

[Runner77]

Like I said in my post MB isn't going to sell the farm. He has not done that at a TDL yet, he didn't do it this summer, the leopard isn't changing his spots all of a sudden.

He will put our 2nd/3rd and guy like Hudon/Lernout in play, maybe someone we drafted in the 2nd later rounds a year or two ago. But he isn't going to sell 1sts or top prospects like Brook/Suzuki or young guys like Drouin/Domi/Lek etc...

But don't worry after he goes out and gets an Ott or Martinsen like guy you can come back and bash MB for not acquiring that LD or 1st line winger to make a run at the playoffs

Why do you keep on bringing up worthless assets like Hudon and Lernout? Did you forget that Lernout cleared waivers? Hudon has taken himself out of the lineup. FWIW, 98.5FM today claimed repeatedly that Hudon is done in Montreal and that he's very likely to be waived. And you're making trade scenarios using these guys?

I've mentioned in several posts that what one believes will happen is premised on how one perceives what happened this past summer. I think MB is MB and the leopard you're talking about is hell-bent about fast-tracking the team into the playoffs this year and will be a buyer at the TDL. Same guy who I heard in pre and early season interviews continuing to claim that "anything can happen in the playoffs". That doesn't sound like a guy who will conduct a proper rebuild or reset or whatever option involves patience.

 

[Runner77]

People who wants to trade Petry now want a 1st and a prospect for him. The 1st will be a late rnd pick and we hope to draft a D that will maybe become someone like Petry. The prospect wont be like a Suzuki so why not wait at least 1 more year before trading him.

If Petry can carry forward similar performance over the rest of the season, he's a guy you move in the summer since he still has years on his contract and is affordable.

 

[Kriss E]

It's not a all or nothing situation. We have a ton of draft picks and prospects. If a team calls about a prospect or a draft pick is on the table that you feel is replacable or redundant and you can get a LHD out of it you have to consider it. To not even consider it as you obviously want them to, you're just being hard headed and would be grounds for being fired IMO.

So hopefully MB listens to you and gets canned

Also, let's be clear. If the Habs make the PO, lose in 5 to Tampa or Toronto or something there will be a large number of the same people in here right now complaining about the Habs maybe making a move that will say "what was the point in even making the PO????" It's a no win situation.

Making the POs this year is pointless. Now, can't force the team to lose. But we should be selling assets, not buying. So ya, if we waste assets on bringing guys in...only to lose in 5 in first round...you bet your ass it's going to be a point of criticism. Why wouldn't it?

 

[Kriss E]

Youre talking like the only way to go, sell guys like Petry,Byron,Shaw vs prospects/picks.. Why not try to acquire a guy like Parayko,Lindholm, Fowler,Edmunson,Tarasenko who are still gonna be in their prime when we should be cup contender in 2 or 3 years?? If You acquire picks/prospects, usually they wont be ready to contribute before 4-5 years.

Hey man..if we can get Tarasenko, I'm all for it. I just don't think we will and we'd have to pay a premium.
Look how much we got for Patches, imagine the ask Stl would be asking for Tara.

 

[Kriss E]

Having centers of Domi,Kotka,Suzuki and Poehling’s caliber i would say their strategy is very different then the last 25 years

How so? They got Kotka and Suzuki from one tanking year. Poe...he's got 3 goals man, I'll wait a bit before getting excited about him. Domi, got back to the press conference, Bergevin states that he could play center but he's most definitely a winger. So he just got lucky, it's not a strategy.

The goal is to make the PO and rebuild on the fly, or so that seems to be the feeling of some.

 

[Kriss E]

A first round pick for the best Defender in the league, with the most dangerous shot, who’s stare could strike fear into the heart of the most experienced warrior? No thank you. A fist round pick is like trading him for a piece of ****.

You know Bergy ain’t trading Weber, why not just be realistic and come up with realistic ways of moving forward.

Well that's not what the discussion is about. Realistic ways? I have no idea what this moron will do.

 

[Kriss E]

Oh but yes we do. We really really do.

You want to rebuild, but it ain't happening.
I want Bergevin gone, but it ain't happening.

Now what do we do with a team who are sitting in 6th place in their division and that's mostly without their #1 D for most of the season and an AHL squad on LD?

I would certainly 100% agree that no assets should be thrown away for rentals but for a hockey trade, they should and they probably will. And it might be stupid to do so but that's what it will take to get what you actually wants, cause the only way to start a real rebuild is by firing Bergevin. There's no way around this.

Let's see what happens. Bergevin has stuck with status quo before..add pointless grinders. Maybe he'll add a Drewiske.

 

[Kriss E]

Please tell me, what Petry can return in a trade? A pick and a prospect?

Most likely a cup contenter so it mean a late 1st round pick ( 40% chance to be NHLer and 10% chance to be a impact player) and as for the prospect, most likely someone 1-2 years away of NHL with, at best 2nd line/2nd pairing potential.

As a cup contenter would most likely be near cap we would need to take a cap dump.

I may have lack of hockey knowledge but I fail to see how a cap dump, a late first and a B prospect would help the team more then Petry.... we know what Petry give and that is most likely more then what a cap dump a late first and a prospect can give ...

Trading Petry may end up making the Habs a worst team.

You think a cap dump a late first and an avg prospect is all Petry would yield?
Well I think we could probably get a lot more than that.
Making the Habs worse today, so we can draft higher, while getting extra assets, is exactly what we should be planning for.

Most of this board was in agreement this summer, Habs need to rebuild. It was almost unanimous.
They have one good summer, are in a bubble position, and now forget it...we have to buy assets at the deadline, and are possibly a year from contention...lol

 

[cphabs]

You think a cap dump a late first and an avg prospect is all Petry would yield?
Well I think we could probably get a lot more than that.
Making the Habs worse today, so we can draft higher, while getting extra assets, is exactly what we should be planning for.

Most of this board was in agreement this summer, Habs need to rebuild. It was almost unanimous.
They have one good summer, are in a bubble position, and now forget it...we have to buy assets at the deadline...lol

 

[Cobra Commander]

Well that's not what the discussion is about. Realistic ways? I have no idea what this moron will do.

We know for sure he ain’t “rebuilding”

 

[Kriss E]

We know for sure he ain’t “rebuilding”

We also know for sure that he's a moron.

 

[Cobra Commander]

We also know for sure that he's a moron.

Yes

 

[Lshap]

You guys put too much faith in young prospects unfortunately if you think we'll find a guy for Weber that will have a bigger impact than him in two years.

If that was the case no team would trade anything for Weber. Think about it.

It's not faith, it's cold, calculated, mathematical odds. Winning teams are built internally. Every top team is stocked with homegrown talent. Yeah, they also might have a UFA and a traded player, but the cores of Tampa, Nashville, Washington, Pittsburgh, Winnipeg, (*gag*) Toronto, etc. all started with players they drafted/acquired when they were kids. Look at the Habs -- we haven't drafted a single core player since Gallagher. That's terrible. Yeah, we flipped two picks for Domi and Drouin -- that's great -- but even there it forced us into an extra level of negotiations and risk.

It's much more direct and cost-effective to draft & develop your own future stars, rather than shop for them retail.

 

[OldCraig71]

It's not faith, it's cold, calculated, mathematical odds. Winning teams are built internally. Every top team is stocked with homegrown talent. Yeah, they also might have a UFA and a traded player, but the cores of Tampa, Nashville, Washington, Pittsburgh, Winnipeg, (*gag*) Toronto, etc. all started with players they drafted/acquired when they were kids. Look at the Habs -- we haven't drafted a single core player since Gallagher. That's terrible. Yeah, we flipped two picks for Domi and Drouin -- that's great -- but even there it forced us into an extra level of negotiations and risk.

It's much more direct and cost-effective to draft & develop your own future stars, rather than shop for them retail.

So why then are we hellbent on doing it in a completely opposite manner than what has worked for all of the teams you have mentioned? How many cups have been won in the last 15 years by teams having the philosophy that once you are in anything can happen? I can think of one of the Kings cup runs where I believe they finished 8th in their conference but the team had many good pieces and added Jeff Carter and Mike Richards via trade that year because they had the young assets to do so but I can't think of any others. I really like your post and it proves that even though there are many of us here that want high draft picks(I didn't say the word) it does not make us lesser fans of the team and taking measures to ensure that puts us in a position to be competitive for many years is not a bad thing at all. You see it in every major sport because it is also a cost effective way to build a foundation of talent and depth but instead we have Peca, Agostino and DLO and Chaput etc because we are ignoring logic and trying to get in because anything can happen once you are there.

 

[DangerDave]

Making the POs this year is pointless. Now, can't force the team to lose. But we should be selling assets, not buying. So ya, if we waste assets on bringing guys in...only to lose in 5 in first round...you bet your ass it's going to be a point of criticism. Why wouldn't it?

I think playoff experience would be good for this young team but I do certainly agree that we should be sellers. If we buy,I want young talent. A LD in particular. As LShap said, we should try to aim for a window where Suzuki, Poehling, Brook or whoever ends up being an NHLer and build with them in mind,

 

[Naslund]

Don't trade Petry, trade Weber. Weber to Vegas is the most logical trade. They need him, are going for the Cup and they have the assets (Hague, Glass). By the time our new core is ready to compete, Weber will be ~37 and a liability. Trading Weber to Vegas today would be the best possible move a GM could do to setup this team for a serious long cup run starting ~4 seasons from now. It will never happen for many reasons, including because the Habs are headed for the playoffs this year and MB will never trade Weber, but a GM with smarts, long-term vision and balls of steel could really setup us for the future with a Weber trade.

 

[All Star John Scott]

Don't trade Petry, trade Weber. Weber to Vegas is the most logical trade. They need him, are going for the Cup and they have the assets (Hague, Glass). By the time our new core is ready to compete, Weber will be ~37 and a liability. Trading Weber to Vegas today would be the best possible move a GM could do to setup this team for a serious long cup run starting ~4 seasons from now. It will never happen for many reasons, including because the Habs are headed for the playoffs this year and MB will never trade Weber, but a GM with smarts, long-term vision and balls of steel could really setup us for the future with a Weber trade.

I see your point, but it is very easy to say when your job isn't on the line. If we trade Weber and miss the playoffs there is a very real chance Bergy is fired, which of course isn't in his best interest.

 

[Naslund]

I see your point, but it is very easy to say when your job isn't on the line. If we trade Weber and miss the playoffs there is a very real chance Bergy is fired, which of course isn't in his best interest.

Agreed. That's why you need an owner with smarts as well to weather the storm.

 

[Le compétiteur]

You think a cap dump a late first and an avg prospect is all Petry would yield?
Well I think we could probably get a lot more than that.
Making the Habs worse today, so we can draft higher, while getting extra assets, is exactly what we should be planning for.

Most of this board was in agreement this summer, Habs need to rebuild. It was almost unanimous.
They have one good summer, are in a bubble position, and now forget it...we have to buy assets at the deadline, and are possibly a year from contention...lol

Wow from not wanting To trade Petry for scrap you assume that I want To destroy the team future for a 1 round of playoff?????

Wow wow wow !!!!

Why not try to play smart for once, this team start To have a future, this future is not yet ready to make the team a contenter but at the same time that future need the support of few good veteransTo establish themself in the NHL.

As for one, the worst thing to do would be either To sell the veterans for future or to sell our future for veterans ...

Why do Habs need to do either of those 2 bad options????

 

[Simarino]

Yeah solid D always carry an 8M caphit until they are 40+ , once he is older and retires what happens then how do we replace him? Essentially we are paying for what will most likely be his worst years and this after he earned it playing prime minutes on another team? Makes sense to me...I have nothing against Weber he is a good D , he provides great leadership (and role model for prospects) just the contract isn't a good one (and the trade obviously).

Solid D donst always carry a 7.8M cap hit till their 40 and he might not be at his prime anymore,,but that dosnt make his contract a bad one. Right now i would say Weber,with what he brings to the table is worth around 9-9.5M, with the cap going up, he'S gonna be worth easealy his 7.8M cap hit for next 3 years and at that time if you feel like you need to unload him he's gonna be paid 3M-1M-1M-1M, Ottawa,Arizona,Florida etc etc, will gladly take him and if he retires, its Nashville problem.

 

[LaP]

Lol Shaw with the big cross check as time expires

The refs really closed their eyes on Shaw's antics this game. I mean in the middle of the 2nd he did a stupid and useless textbook obstruction on the goalie and did not receive anything. That was really a stupid play (any goals scored would have been overturned) and knowing Shaw he knew 100% what he was doing skating backward into the goalie. It was a very easy call to make imo. He could have gotten easily 2 penalties this game. We had the refs on our side big time imo.