I think your point is...All it takes is 1 GM to "overpay" for a player and anything can happen. That is surely the case, but with Hall given his cap hit, questions about his game, his current play, the overall state of teams who need scoring help, and the lack of cap space available overall, there's going to be a lot less teams in on him which reduces the idea of finding that "1 GM" to overpay.
I think we should collectively not underestimate how desperate some GMs are to keep their own jobs during a pandemic.
If you are a GM who told your owner the playoffs were going to happen before the year starts, and now you are on the outside looking in are you REALLY going to potentially lose your own job because you stuck to your guns at 2nd+prospect?
Calgary is on the outside looking in. The GM has now gone through multiple coaches. He has a team that has a hard time scoring, and rumors are they want to bring Hall in over the summer.
Or if your Boston, and you have your top line locked in and you are just holding onto a playoff spot. Is taking a run at Hall worth a 1st if you think it makes you a lock to hold off Philly?
Im a Leaf fan and I hate giving up higher picks, especially when ELC contracts are how you offset spending so much on a top 4. But if as a GM you think Hall makes it so you can at least win a few rounds, is that price worth it even to just get all your guys more playoff experience? IDK but its something I would have to consider.