Speculation: Does the abundance of available 1st line LWs hurt their value?

[Kamiccolo]

Whenever there is a market out there the price comes down. I think it'll be the same thing with potentially OEL / McDonagh / Karlsson / Doughty all being available depending on negotiations over the next season and change with lesser guys being available as well.

I also don't see JVR being moved. Leafs lack LW and goal scorers and he fits both, nevermind him being the only other guy elite around the net on the team other than Matthews.

 

[LeafGrief]

HF has convinced itself that wingers aren't valuable, so nobody on the trade boards will ever agree to pay a significant for a winger who's over the age of 25. Not to mention that most fans hate rentals, so the boards will never agree to the kind of value that JVR would likely return in a trade. Lucic was traded for a very high draft pick, a prospect, and another 1st (Jones) with one year left on his contract and years of producing less than the guys on this list. Pacioretty and Hoffman are worth more than that, but nobody here will ever agree with that.

 

[Vincenzo Arelliti]

HF has convinced itself that wingers aren't valuable, so nobody on the trade boards will ever agree to pay a significant for a winger who's over the age of 25. Not to mention that most fans hate rentals, so the boards will never agree to the kind of value that JVR would likely return in a trade. Lucic was traded for a very high draft pick, a prospect, and another 1st (Jones) with one year left on his contract and years of producing less than the guys on this list. Pacioretty and Hoffman are worth more than that, but nobody here will ever agree with that.

Jones was a backup when traded. The prospect was garbage. Lucic has similar numbers and cups. A mid-1st is reasonable for Hoffman and Patches - but you have to find the team that is willing to do that. There’s a reason it has only happened once.

 

[Kraken Jokes]

I don't believe JVR would be available if TO is still in the hunt. That said, there may be a 2nd tier of offensive wingers available if teams don't want to pay the higher price.

 

[tony d]

I think JVR could get moved at the deadline if a good defenseman becomes available for Toronto.

 

[LeafGrief]

Jones was a backup when traded. The prospect was garbage. Lucic has similar numbers and cups. A mid-1st is reasonable for Hoffman and Patches - but you have to find the team that is willing to do that. There’s a reason it has only happened once.

Jones was flipped less than a week later for a first. He never played a game for the Bruins. The prospect coming from LA was Colin Miller who has 24 points so far this year for Vegas. Lucic scored 44 points in 81 games the year before he was traded. He had 59 points the year before that, and 27 in 46 in the lockout year (which is a 48 point pace). Both Hoffman and Pacioretty blow his numbers out of the water, Pacioretty's goal scoring in particular. Perhaps it was an overpayment by LA, but you are suggesting that better players would return about half of what Lucic got.

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

Probably add one of Nyquist and Tatar to the mix as well, As Detroit will be looking at shedding one of them Nyquist has a full NTC and Tatar will have one on July 1st.

 

[Vincenzo Arelliti]

Jones was flipped less than a week later for a first. He never played a game for the Bruins. The prospect coming from LA was Colin Miller who has 24 points so far this year for Vegas. Lucic scored 44 points in 81 games the year before he was traded. He had 59 points the year before that, and 27 in 46 in the lockout year (which is a 48 point pace). Both Hoffman and Pacioretty blow his numbers out of the water, Pacioretty's goal scoring in particular. Perhaps it was an overpayment by LA, but you are suggesting that better players would return about half of what Lucic got.

Hoffman has similar numbers to Lucic.

If we are using extremes to judge return, Hoffman and Patches could return the equivalent of Strome, too.

Both are worth a mid-first, but are more likely to go for a middle-6 roster player, mid-prospect, and a pick given history. Either might return more, but until they do there isn’t much of an argument that they should.

 

[WhoTagz]

Hoffman
JVR
Evander Kane
Pacioretty

Every one of these names has come up in verified trade rumors quite a bit recently. These guys are all legit 1st line left wingers, all capable of at least 30 goals and 30 assists. Two of their contracts are expiring this off season while two of them are signed beyond this year. Toronto is comfortably in a playoff spot, while the other 3 teams are comfortably out.

In general, at the trade deadline, only 1 or 2, or sometimes even 0 of these caliber players are available. But now we just so happen to be looking at 4 pretty similar 30-30 first line left wingers available all at the same trade deadline. Because of this strangely high level of supply of 1st line left wingers, you've got to think that the teams potentially trading them may have to lower their prices in order to receive solid offers. As a result, we may see those players go for a little bit less than they're worth.

Thoughts?

I think of the players available everyone has something different about them, that hinders or increases value, like Grabners pk/speed or kanes behavior

 

[rent free]

HF has convinced itself that wingers aren't valuable, so nobody on the trade boards will ever agree to pay a significant for a winger who's over the age of 25. Not to mention that most fans hate rentals, so the boards will never agree to the kind of value that JVR would likely return in a trade. Lucic was traded for a very high draft pick, a prospect, and another 1st (Jones) with one year left on his contract and years of producing less than the guys on this list. Pacioretty and Hoffman are worth more than that, but nobody here will ever agree with that.

13th overall isn't that high, lucic wasn't a rental when he was traded, and he was overall better than jvr, and had a cup, which makes his value higher.

 

[Volica]

Anyone remember 2013-2014?
That's the last time there was an abundance of offensive wingers available for trade at the deadline.

The guys available were:
Stempniak, Cammalleri, Hemsky, Vanek, Gaborik and MSL.

The returns outside of MSL; were pretty poor.

 

[sheed36]

I think JVR could get moved at the deadline if a good defenseman becomes available for Toronto.

Maybe but if a team were interested in adding scoring in a rental like JVR they're likely a playoff team so I can't really see them trading a "good" defenseman (who's likely a top 4) off their team. That type of move patches one hole while creating another.

Also if a good defenseman does become available they'll likely be from a non playoff team looking to sell for the future and a UFA to be JVR doesn't fit that criteria either. JVR likely has more value to the current Leafs team than anything he'll return in any trade at the deadline unless the Leafs sell him for picks and/or prospects. I don't see JVR being traded at the deadline and they'll deal with him in the off season.

 

[LeafGrief]

Hoffman has similar numbers to Lucic.

If we are using extremes to judge return, Hoffman and Patches could return the equivalent of Strome, too.

Both are worth a mid-first, but are more likely to go for a middle-6 roster player, mid-prospect, and a pick given history. Either might return more, but until they do there isn’t much of an argument that they should.

In the two full seasons and lockout shortened season before he was traded, Lucic played 207 games and had 130 points. 49 of those were goals

In his last 196 games (the last two seasons and 44 games of this year) Hoffman has 150 points. 67 of those are goals.

Saying that Hoffman's numbers are "similar" to Lucic's is really selling Hoffman short.

Their numbers are better than Schenn's, who your team paid two firsts and a cap dump for. Granted, Schenn at least was able to play C occasionally for the Flyers. Ladd got a first and a good prospect (Dano) as a deadline rental in the middle of a disaster season. David Perron got a first in the middle of a crappy season too, and his numbers are also blown out of the water by Hoffman's and Pacioretty's. Good wingers don't get traded often, but the comparables are weaker players generating returns as good or better than you're suggesting.

 

[lanceuppercut75]

Boston has Marchand, DeBrusk (on pace for 50+ points) and Heinen (on pace for 60+ points) as their LWings. Boston needs a RW.

Have they put Heinen firmly at LW? I thought for some reason he had played LW and C (and RW?) for the Bruins. I guess with no injuries that would push him to 4th line, which is maybe stacking the roster too much.

 

[Zippy316]

Anyone remember 2013-2014?
That's the last time there was an abundance of offensive wingers available for trade at the deadline.

The guys available were:
Stempniak, Cammalleri, Hemsky, Vanek, Gaborik and MSL.

The returns outside of MSL; were pretty poor.

All of those guys were at least a couple years older than any of Paccioretty, Hoffman, JvR, and Kane.

 

[ON3M4N]

Have they put Heinen firmly at LW? I thought for some reason he had played LW and C (and RW?) for the Bruins. I guess with no injuries that would push him to 4th line, which is maybe stacking the roster too much.

He's been playing LW w/ Nash at Center and Backes at RW. It's not a line that you break up because any given night they can score. On top of that, Boston has guys like Bjork & Cehlarik that can play LW/RW as well.

 

[ManofSteel55]

Supply and demand in effect. More LW's available means that their value might be lower - but not so much that these guys will be sold for nothing by their respective teams.

 

[wintersej]

Have they put Heinen firmly at LW? I thought for some reason he had played LW and C (and RW?) for the Bruins. I guess with no injuries that would push him to 4th line, which is maybe stacking the roster too much.

Heinen has been playing LW on a line with Nash and Backes (both right handed shots). Spooner is another guy that is more comfortable at LW than the RW he has been playing. Bjork in Providence is also a left wing. Poor Frank Vatrano has scored at a 20 goal place as a left winger in his career but can't see the ice because there are too many left wings.

In the forward group, the one odd fit is playing Spooner as Krejci's RW. Oddly, Spooner has played at a 30 goal 70 point pace in the 19 games since being put there, but a natural RW (or a Hoffman who can be a shooter on the offwing) isn't crazy there. But, with Spooner playing so well, even if it looks weird on paper, its not pressing right now.

 

[Vincenzo Arelliti]

In the two full seasons and lockout shortened season before he was traded, Lucic played 207 games and had 130 points. 49 of those were goals

In his last 196 games (the last two seasons and 44 games of this year) Hoffman has 150 points. 67 of those are goals.

Saying that Hoffman's numbers are "similar" to Lucic's is really selling Hoffman short.

Their numbers are better than Schenn's, who your team paid two firsts and a cap dump for. Granted, Schenn at least was able to play C occasionally for the Flyers. Ladd got a first and a good prospect (Dano) as a deadline rental in the middle of a disaster season. David Perron got a first in the middle of a crappy season too, and his numbers are also blown out of the water by Hoffman's and Pacioretty's. Good wingers don't get traded often, but the comparables are weaker players generating returns as good or better than you're suggesting.

I said they were worth a mid first. That’s equal to if not more than two firsts from a playoff team. Ladd, Perron, and Schenn also match what I said. Roster player + prospect + pick, with each piece balancing the the other. In some cases, the pick and prospect were valuable enough to get rid of the roster player. Lucic is an extreme outlier, as is Eberle. I don’t see how any of this is different from what I said.

Hoffman is a 25-30 goal scorer and 50-60pts. Lucic is similar, and he brings extra to the table. Pominville, Nash, Oshie, and Eberle are also examples of similar players, and they received anywhere from Strome to two meh prospects, a 1st, and a 2nd. Again, I don’t see how all of the examples don’t show that a player like Hoffman or Patches is worth a mid-first, or an equivalent package.

 

[Kolzilla]

Boston
Carolina
New Jersey
Philadelphia
Pittsburgh
Washington

Nashville
Los Angeles
San Jose

Hoffman and Kane can play RW as well though.

That's something the Caps don't need...

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Jones was flipped less than a week later for a first. He never played a game for the Bruins. The prospect coming from LA was Colin Miller who has 24 points so far this year for Vegas. Lucic scored 44 points in 81 games the year before he was traded. He had 59 points the year before that, and 27 in 46 in the lockout year (which is a 48 point pace). Both Hoffman and Pacioretty blow his numbers out of the water, Pacioretty's goal scoring in particular. Perhaps it was an overpayment by LA, but you are suggesting that better players would return about half of what Lucic got.

Little more context--Miller was a 5th round pick with potential but was deemed expendable with LaDue on the way, and Jones never intended to sign with us so he was on the outs as well.

It's still an 'overpayment' from a value perspective probably but considering those guys were gone anyway it's not as much outgoing if that makes sense. Other teams will likely have similar situations worth considering (i.e. dearth of LW prospects makes one moveable)--these things don't happen in a vacuum.

 

[LeafGrief]

Little more context--Miller was a 5th round pick with potential but was deemed expendable with LaDue on the way, and Jones never intended to sign with us so he was on the outs as well.

It's still an 'overpayment' from a value perspective probably but considering those guys were gone anyway it's not as much outgoing if that makes sense. Other teams will likely have similar situations worth considering (i.e. dearth of LW prospects makes one moveable)--these things don't happen in a vacuum.

There's always lots of context which is very important. I recognize that Miller was far from a sure thing prospect, I didn't actually bring him up until the other poster referred to the nameless prospect as "trash". I just think it's crazy that HF considers wingers who can score 30g to have so little value. A C who scores 30g would get even more than the Lucic return and then people scoff at the thought of trading a first for Pacioretty. Position is important, but some of the stuff that gets thrown around here is nuts.

 

[solidprospect]

Generally good left wingers are hard to find, so i think their is a market for all of them. Like it's easier to find right wingers and centres than left wingers IMO particularly top scoring ones.

 

[Lion Hound]

Helps the Rangers a bit. Nash plays both wings. But, not sure if he is a "1st line" guy anymore.

 

[Bjornar Moxnes]

I've said it before but LW has to be the least valuable position in hockey just because there is so many out there and it's not as important as defense or center

I agree, as RWers are usually RHS which gives more versatility making LWers especially LHS LWers the least valuable position in hockey.