Speculation: Does the abundance of available 1st line LWs hurt their value?

TomasHertlsRooster

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May 14, 2012
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Hoffman
JVR
Evander Kane
Pacioretty

Every one of these names has come up in verified trade rumors quite a bit recently. These guys are all legit 1st line left wingers, all capable of at least 30 goals and 30 assists. Two of their contracts are expiring this off season while two of them are signed beyond this year. Toronto is comfortably in a playoff spot, while the other 3 teams are comfortably out.

In general, at the trade deadline, only 1 or 2, or sometimes even 0 of these caliber players are available. But now we just so happen to be looking at 4 pretty similar 30-30 first line left wingers available all at the same trade deadline. Because of this strangely high level of supply of 1st line left wingers, you've got to think that the teams potentially trading them may have to lower their prices in order to receive solid offers. As a result, we may see those players go for a little bit less than they're worth.

Thoughts?
 

lanceuppercut75

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Feb 20, 2016
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Your theory might have some merit now, but as the deadline approaches teams will get paranoid that they'll miss out and other teams will swoop in and grab their guy.

This is especially true after the first one of the four gets traded. Knock that domino over and the others will begin to fall.

BTW... Leafs might "trade JVR to themselves" by just keeping him as the kind of playoff rental they would otherwise be looking for. He's also reportedly only looking for $6 million, so Toronto may even extend him.
 
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Detelethisaccount

Registered User
Jul 5, 2013
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Hoffman
JVR
Evander Kane
Pacioretty

Every one of these names has come up in verified trade rumors quite a bit recently. These guys are all legit 1st line left wingers, all capable of at least 30 goals and 30 assists. Two of their contracts are expiring this off season while two of them are signed beyond this year. Toronto is comfortably in a playoff spot, while the other 3 teams are comfortably out.

In general, at the trade deadline, only 1 or 2, or sometimes even 0 of these caliber players are available. But now we just so happen to be looking at 4 pretty similar 30-30 first line left wingers available all at the same trade deadline. Because of this strangely high level of supply of 1st line left wingers, you've got to think that the teams potentially trading them may have to lower their prices in order to receive solid offers. As a result, we may see those players go for a little bit less than they're worth.

Thoughts?

Yes potentially, but Kane is the only one that has to be moved before the trade deadline. The others can be patient and wait for better offers, or in the case of JVR, Toronto can live with the risk of him walking after the season if they are in the playoffs. I just don't see any advantage to Montreal or Ottawa selling a player with term for futures at the deadline, those are moves you make at the draft when you have less competition and more available bidders. The only way I see either Hoffman or Pacioretty moving before the draft, would be if the return had a roster player back as the main piece. Also may want to add one of Perron or Neal from Vegas, with their depth I would not be at all surprised to see one of those two moved for picks/prospects even if they are still in first place. I'm a little more interested to see how the abundance of mediocre wingers (Maroon, Vanek, Nash, etc) this year will affect the market for Kane and others, if moved.
 
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KarmaPolice

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Depends on how many serious buyers there are for wingers. That's how the market works: supply and demand. It could be they have lower than usual value, but if there are 5+ teams looking for top wingers at or near the TDL, then the return should be about what they'd usually return on any given year. I have a feeling there wont be that many teams looking for top-line wingers (or at least willing to pay a ton for one), but I could be wrong.
 

General Fanager

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Depends on how many serious buyers there are for wingers. That's how the market works: supply and demand. It could be they have lower than usual value, but if there are 5+ teams looking for top wingers at or near the TDL, then the return should be about what they'd usually return on any given year. I have a feeling there wont be that many teams looking for top-line wingers (or at least willing to pay a ton for one), but I could be wrong.
'

its 2 separate issues.

Looking for help on the wings and scoring help, the list will be long.....willing to pay the price to get one is a much smaller list IMO
 

willyjones

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May 30, 2013
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Domino effect once one of kane or Hoffman go the rest of the gems will panicky and trade for them except jvr, I do not see the leafs trading him. I think they will risk losing him or resign him soon. His contract ask are not that bad and im sure lou can negotiate on top of that.
 

Yatzhee

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Aug 5, 2010
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2 of these names are not like the other 2. Kane and JVR are rentals. Hoffman and Patches are not. That is one of several variables between these players. So no, it doesn't drop value.
 
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WJCJ

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Los Angeles
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Hoffman and Kane can play RW as well though.

Boston's top 3 LWs are scoring at a ppg rate of 1.3 ppg, .76 ppg, and .59 ppg. I am not sure that they would be looking for a LW.
 

topshelf15

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May 5, 2009
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Hoffman doesnt need to be traded,as do many LW,s on that list save maybe Kane..The market isnt as saturated as the teams that need LW scoring help would hope it would be
 

2020 Cup Champions

Formerly Sila v Kucherove
Nov 26, 2013
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2 of these names are not like the other 2. Kane and JVR are rentals. Hoffman and Patches are not. That is one of several variables between these players. So no, it doesn't drop value.
It certainly can't help Kane and JvR's values. Don't count Simmonds out as a non-rental, either.
 

Starat327

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Ultimately, it depends on the number of teams interested and willing to pay the price. If i'm the Flyers, i dont bother. This team shows flashes of skill, but they're not ready to make splashes for UFA/soon to be that we cant afford to re-sign yet.
 

Djp

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Jul 28, 2012
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Kaneis a UFA after this year.
J r is a ufa..but I don't see Toronto trading him.
The other two have 1 or 2 full years left so those players likely have higher process and the teams don't have to trade them now.

Some teams just want a rental for a cup run and it have salary left for next year.

Teams right to the cap might want patches more because montreal can retain remaining salary this year but still term for next year. A team who is going for it with a few ufas on their roster could say they have next year's space for parches.
 

Bazeek

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It probably hurts their value insofar as it fails to help it. It's less likely that you're going to see a protracted bidding war over these guys, but it's still not impossible. They're all LWs, but they bring different games and come with different contracts and availability.

Don't underestimate how much teams watch what their most direct competitors are doing, too. A surplus of options might make it more likely that a team like Nashville upgrades at the wing. That's a move that would make it even harder for St Louis to just stand pat, but if they wanted to make a move they'd then have to do it with one less option available.
 

Wingsfan 4 life

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Oct 9, 2016
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I'm pretty certain Kane's the only one of those who is readily available. JVR isn't. Patches and Hoffman are possible but Habs and Sens can wait if they don't get a deal to their liking.
 

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