Obviously there are two sides to this equation. What the Avalanche are willing to pay him and what Stastny wants in order to stay. We can speculate and make educated guesses about the former, but we really have no idea about the latter. Most of the conversation about the latter is filtered through the perspective of Avalanche fandom and not based on any knowledge of what Stastny would want. Basically, it strikes me as wishful thinking. That doesn't make it inaccurate, but we have to be realistic about the possibility - dare I say likelihood - that Stastny will want to test free agency as this will be the only opportunity he has to do so while he's in his prime.
Quite frankly, a lot of things will have to fall in place perfectly if we want to be able to retain Stastny long-term without him taking a hometown discount, especially if he demands a NTC as part of his next contract.
What's best for the Avalanche organization is dependent on a lot of different factors.
1. As MacK improves, the need for a defensive shutdown center with Stastny's offensive upside declines. We very well could role two quality NHL lines lead by Duchene and MacK with someone like Jay McClement playing the shutdown third line role. Getting someone of McClement's ilk is not easy, but doable.
2. If Bigras can come in and play like Brodin did for Minnesota last year, it'll fill up the major organization hole we have. It makes retaining someone like Stastny easier as our defense will solidify but remain cost controlled for the foreseeable future. Unfortunately, we won't know if this will be the case before we have to make a decision on Stastny. But, if we resign him with a NTC in place, it likely means that Sakic and Roy are banking on Bigras growing into a top pairing defenseman.
3. The salary cap will go up, but I feel like most speculation about a $70 million+ cap seems optimistic. It might be right and I'm sure the Avs internally have a good idea about where it'll be, but our ability to retain someone like Stastny at his market rate will depend heavily on where that cap will end up. Moreover, even if it goes up that much, the going rate for free agents in the future will likewise increase. You cannot project future salaries on a heavily raised salary cap using current salary comparables. Heck, a raised salary cap next year will undoubtedly increase the market rate for Stastny in free agency.
4. If Stastny demands a NTC (I would in his position), the Avs have to weigh the possibility that we'll have to trade for a top flight defenseman with only O'Reilly as a serious bargaining chip. A NTC for Stastny could mean we may have to ship out O'Reilly instead.
I fully expect the Avs to make an honest attempt to retain Stastny under a reasonable, long-term contract. But this entire process is heavily dependent on what Stastny's demands are. If he wants to test free agency, I think the risk of losing him for nothing is too great and we have to trade him. If he demands a NTC, his salary demands will have to be very reasonable lest we hamstring ourselves in the future. But it really comes down to what Stastny wants. I really don't think the Avs have much leverage in this case and the question really isn't, should we resign Stastny but rather will he want to resign with us within our budget constraints.
