Does Ottawa Now Flip their pick to Colorado to ensure a lottery selection next year?

[a mangy Meowth]

Now that you have finally gotten around to admitting your error, I'll gladly explain my position.


Finally, if you truly believe that the Sens would screw the Avs over by giving them this year's selection, why are you fighting so hard to make the case? You should be ecstatic that I am too unaware to know what is best for my team and hope that Dorion is of like mind.

1) Totally cool with taking the 20th overall pick next season. We still win the trade. Big time.
2) What if the pick actually does win the lottery?
3) Hahahahahahahahahaha

4) Sens can't acquire a 1st overall pick in 2019 without keeping their own. There, I said it. And I'll happily argue that point. Who are you gonna trade for it? Chabot? Whoever you pick 4th overall? Don't make me laugh. Hypothetically speaking, I wouldn't trade Jack Hughes for any realistic combination of Ottawa assets that you put together. Seriously, try me. Chabot and 2 1sts? I'm good on that one.

I know you've made it a profession in this thread to pick on semantics. So bring it on. I said it, Ottawa is INCAPABLE of acquiring a 2019 1st overall pick that is not their own (the one that they are currently giving to Colorado)


That said, I don't think you should give us #4 overall. I think you'll be better next year.

 

[Sensung]

1) Totally cool with taking the 20th overall pick next season. We still win the trade. Big time.

The Sens have the best player in the deal and the pick has yet to be decided. Only a fool would declare a winner at this point.

4) Sens can't acquire a 1st overall pick in 2019 without keeping their own. There, I said it. And I'll happily argue that point.

So you're a big fan of being wrong. The Sens can acquire the 1st overall by having the 1st round draft pick of any team not in the playoffs in 2109. That is all that is needed. If you want to be idiotic enough to pretend the Sens have no assets worthy of a 1st round selection, then knock yourself out. Only a fool would take this position.

Who are you gonna trade for it? Chabot? Whoever you pick 4th overall? Don't make me laugh. Hypothetically speaking, I wouldn't trade Jack Hughes for any realistic combination of Ottawa assets that you put together. Seriously, try me. Chabot and 2 1sts? I'm good on that one.

But the Sens don't need to trade for Jack Hughes, just the 1st round selection of a team that fails to make the playoffs. Only a fool wouldn't understand the difference.

I know you've made it a profession in this thread to pick on semantics. So bring it on. I said it, Ottawa is INCAPABLE of acquiring a 2019 1st overall pick that is not their own (the one that they are currently giving to Colorado)

You can make this foolish claim as many times as you like, but it still won't be true.

That said, I don't think you should give us #4 overall. I think you'll be better next year.

At least you got one thing right. Good for you.

 

[branch]

No GM is going to give up #4 and essentially tell the owner and season ticket holders that we are going to be even worse next year.

That's such a dumb mindset. It's like staying together for the kids when you know it's going to get a lot worse. I would def hand the pick over and get the rebuild going. It's the most practical thing.

 

[Sensung]

That's such a dumb mindset. It's like staying together for the kids when you know it's going to get a lot worse. I would def hand the pick over. It's the most practical thing.

Sorry

 

[blankall]

As much of a tire fire as Ottawa currently is, Karlsson is such a game breaker that he can drag any team into the playoffs. I'd keep the #4 if I'm the Sens. You can't trade that pick on the longshot of getting the #1. On top of that, does next year's draft even have a franchise type player that it would be worth gambling for? Is the the #1 overall so much better than this year's #4 that you'd want to take the risk? I'll admit that I'm not super knowledgeable about next year's top end, but I don't see anyone at a Matthews or Dahlin level.

 

[branch]

I'm sure you would.

We've already talked about this and we're never going to agree. Unfortunately you cannot have a mature conversation without being condescendingly personal so I'll let you have this one.

 

[Kamina]

This was the worst year f***ing ever. Might as well have a good player to look forward to....

Sens are not guaranteed to be worse next year.

 

[AvsFan29]

As much of a tire fire as Ottawa currently is, Karlsson is such a game breaker that he can drag any team into the playoffs. I'd keep the #4 if I'm the Sens. You can't trade that pick on the longshot of getting the #1. On top of that, does next year's draft even have a franchise type player that it would be worth gambling for? Is the the #1 overall so much better than this year's #4 that you'd want to take the risk? I'll admit that I'm not super knowledgeable about next year's top end, but I don't see anyone at a Matthews or Dahlin level.

Karlsson will be traded (won't sign)
Hoffman will be traded (for less than market value)
Duchene is UFA after this season, will be traded because he won't sign
Andersons play has gone down hill

Next years draft is supposed to be better than this year's. Hughes is looking like a generational forward talent.

I personally would not be upset if the Avs get the 4th pick this year, there are a ton of solid guys that would fit nicely on the Avs.

I would prefer to keep the 2019 pick. mostly because I think Ottawa could end up in the top 3, with a half decent shot at Hughes. Also I will enjoy cheering for Ottawa to lose all season.

Avs win that trade by a mile either way

 

[a mangy Meowth]

The Sens have the best player in the deal and the pick has yet to be decided. Only a fool would declare a winner at this point.

I don't subscribe to the notion that you use hindsight to evaluate a trade in the modern NHL. Asset management is a big thing in the league these days. You may have gotten the best player (arguable), but we got rid of his expiring contract in a situation where he had demanded out, and got a mother lode of young assets that fit our direction perfectly. Your end of the trade blew up in your face up to this point. Those are just facts. I'm sorry!

And yes, right now you could acquire a 1st, and then happen to have it win the lottery. That's not really what I'm talking about though. I'm talking further down the line, when the season has cleared up and the standings are close to what they'll be at the end of the year. The value of draft spots changes at that point. If you aren't already holding that ticket in your pocket by then (you aren't currently), then the cost becomes prohibitive to the point where no, the Sens do not have an asset worthy of such a piece. It's not like the Avs do outside of MacKinnon either, so this shouldn't hurt your feelings.

 

[Sensung]

We've already talked about this and we're never going to agree. Unfortunately you cannot have a mature conversation without being condescendingly personal so I'll let you have this one.

My apologies.

 

[blankall]

Karlsson will be traded (won't sign)
Hoffman will be traded (for less than market value)
Duchene is UFA after this season, will be traded because he won't sign
Andersons play has gone down hill

Next years draft is supposed to be better than this year's. Hughes is looking like a generational forward talent.

I personally would not be upset if the Avs get the 4th pick this year, there are a ton of solid guys that would fit nicely on the Avs.

I would prefer to keep the 2019 pick. mostly because I think Ottawa could end up in the top 3, with a half decent shot at Hughes. Also I will enjoy cheering for Ottawa to lose all season.

Avs win that trade by a mile either way

Hughes looks great, but doesn't have the size and speed of a player like McDavid/Matthews. He's better than what's available at #4, but is he so much better that he's worth the gamble.

I do agree that if Ottawa's management has plans for Karlsson, then they should reconsider their current plan for the 1st round pick. If they don't plan to trade him before this deadline, I'd hang onto this year's pick.

And yes, the Avs get a steal here. That's been beaten to death.

 

[Michel Beauchamp]

I find it a bit unethical that the ball is completely in Ottawa's court to decide whether or not to give up the pick. Shouldn't the Avs get a say as well? The way this condition works though seems to suggest that the Sens can either honour or dishonour the condition and the Avs just have to go along with whatever the Sens do.

Also, what's the deadline for the Sens to do this? Because if they tell Colorado like the day of or before the draft that they aren't using the 4th pick this year and the Avs have almost no notice then that's just wrong.

Admittedly, English is not my first language, but WHAT THE HECK ?

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

The Sens have the best player in the deal and the pick has yet to be decided. Only a fool would declare a winner at this point.


So you're a big fan of being wrong. The Sens can acquire the 1st overall by having the 1st round draft pick of any team not in the playoffs in 2109. That is all that is needed. If you want to be idiotic enough to pretend the Sens have no assets worthy of a 1st round selection, then knock yourself out. Only a fool would take this position.


But the Sens don't need to trade for Jack Hughes, just the 1st round selection of a team that fails to make the playoffs. Only a fool wouldn't understand the difference.


You can make this foolish claim as many times as you like, but it still won't be true.


At least you got one thing right. Good for you.

You really like using the term "fool" a lot dont you...


Well you know what they say "It's better to keep your mouth closed and let people think you're a fool than to open it and remove all doubt"


Just some food for thought.

 

[GirardSpinorama]

Now that you have finally gotten around to admitting your error, I'll gladly explain my position.

There is simply too narrow a window of possibilities that the Sens pick next year will be better than this year to justify the risk in giving up a top level prospect this draft.

1) The draft lottery is set up such that even if the Sens fall apart and finish 31st, the most likely draft position is 4th (exactly the same slot as this season. Any placement outside the bottom 3 makes the odds of getting even the 4th pick way too slim.

2) The Sens can acquire a lottery ticket through trade. It will likely be a long shot, but they can still be in the mix.

3) Anderson's yearly pattern of goaltending suggest that he is in for a bounce back. That alone will mean the Sens are unlikely to finish in the bottom 5 again.

4) Sens management is having trouble selling tickets as is. If they take away all hope and bet against the team, it will get even worse.

5) Sens management can't tell their team they have no hope before the season even begins.

6) The Sens had a fractured dressing room last year and massively under performed. They will address this issue this summer and should get back to playing as a team, a hallmark of their run to within a goal of the Stanley Cup Final just over 12 months ago.

7) The ownership situation is coming to a head. Melnyk will sell at some point, so it makes zero sense for the team to make a panic move now and play the longshot that they win the lottery next season.

So in short, although there are some worst case scenarios where the Sens come out slightly ahead by turning over this year's pick, the rational course of action is to play the odds and work like crazy to make sure they finish as high as possible next year.

Finally, if you truly believe that the Sens would screw the Avs over by giving them this year's selection, why are you fighting so hard to make the case? You should be ecstatic that I am too unaware to know what is best for my team and hope that Dorion is of like mind.

Points 4 and 5 are good point that i did not think of. The optics of doing this is pretty bad.

The rest are arguments of why the Sens might surprise us next year with the same team, most people here just dont see it given the current situation. Anderson might bounce back but hes also even older. The locker room issues might be better or this is just the tip of it.

With a 2019 pick, the sens would have a clear direction. Not hope for all those things to happen. And if they finish 8-9, Karlsson and Duchene has no reason to resign anyways. It’s just be a sell off at the end of the season than the beginning, which could make up for the pick moving down a few spots. All i’m saying is that there is a rational case, give a rebuilding team a realistic shot at a franchise player. In my mind, if I had a reroll for Dahlin and it means if i lose i move from 4 to 8/9, I’d take it. Its a case where the reward is worth the risk.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Hughes looks great, but doesn't have the size and speed of a player like McDavid/Matthews. He's better than what's available at #4, but is he so much better that he's worth the gamble.

I do agree that if Ottawa's management has plans for Karlsson, then they should reconsider their current plan for the 1st round pick. If they don't plan to trade him before this deadline, I'd hang onto this year's pick.

And yes, the Avs get a steal here. That's been beaten to death.

Maybe he doesn't have the speed of McDavid but he's absolutely got the speed(Hell he's faster) then Matthews did as a prospect.


Size is a bit silly to be discussing about a kid who just turned 17 last month. Still has a solid 1-2 years of growing left yet. He's listed as 5'10.5" right now. No reason to expect him to not grow another 1.5 inches before he finishes growing in a couple years time and comes in at 6'0" by the end of it.


Make no mistake if Hughes was in this years draft he would be the clear #2 at worst and would be giving Dahlin one hell of a run for his money at #1. In fact I'd guess some teams would prefer Hughes to Dahlin because even a prospect as great as Dahlin comes with so much unpredictability as a Defender that teams might take the safe franchise C instead.

 

[Dogewow]

That's such a dumb mindset. It's like staying together for the kids when you know it's going to get a lot worse. I would def hand the pick over and get the rebuild going. It's the most practical thing.

It really isn't though.

You don't go into a season with that mindset as a general manager, and you don't know how next year is going to turn out, regardless of how grim it looks. As stated before, there are surprises in sports all the time, and teams that are expected to suck can turn it around quickly and teams that are expected to dominate can fall flat on their face.

Giving them this years pick and rolling the dice in the hopes that you're just as bad or worse, in addition playing the lottery odds, is career suicide as a GM. You're sending a message to your fans, best players, and your boss that you have no intentions of being competitive in any sense.

Even if you're last in the league (which is absolutely no guarantee), odds are is you're not getting the first overall. And then what? You've just blown a year of development and wasted time when you can just draft a similar/better prospect than what you would likely be getting next year anyway.

 

[branch]

It really isn't though.

You don't go into a season with that mindset as a general manager, and you don't know how next year is going to turn out, regardless of how grim it looks. As stated before, there are surprises in sports all the time, and teams that are expected to suck can turn it around quickly and teams that are expected to dominate can fall flat on their face.

Giving them this years pick and rolling the dice in the hopes that you're just as bad or worse, in addition playing the lottery odds, is career suicide as a GM. You're sending a message to your fans, best players, and your boss that you have no intentions of being competitive in any sense.

Even if you're last in the league (which is absolutely no guarantee), odds are is you're not getting the first overall. And then what? You've just blown a year of development and wasted time when you can just draft a similar/better prospect than what you would likely be getting next year anyway.

Honestly, after this year as a Senators fan. It would only be fitting to have the team completely shit the bed next year. That or 9th place just outside the wildcard spots.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

If it were my choice....

If Karl/Duchene/Stone are staying, no brainer, keep #4.

If Karlsson is leaving, which I think is what is going to happen, it becomes a lot murkier. Can they make as close to a lateral move as possible and get a player like Subban from NSH? If so, keep the pick.

If Karl is moved for futures/young less effective players, and there's some indication Stone and/or Duchene may not sign long term, it's time to blow it up. If we blow it up and trade everybody, our pick next year should almost certainly be in the same range as the one this year, but the upside of possibly winning the lottery is much greater than the downside of a stripped down Senators team possibly going on a run and finishing with a 10th-20th type pick. So without Karl/Duchene/Stone/Hoffman, and with mostly futures or young players who won't contribute as much right now as the returns for them, by giving up the 4th in exchange for the 2019 1st, we'd just be delaying a top 5 pick by one season.

An ideal solution would be to get a sweetener from COL to give up 4, or to make a deal with them (under the assumption that we're keeping 4) that we can trade down as high as X (so let's say they say 8) and they'll still be willing to take the pick. That let's us pick up a few 2nds from somebody else, they obviously only do it if they think we aren't bluffing about keeping it otherwise and if they really like someone at a certain point beyond 4.

So much is going to happen in the next four days, it's a very fluid situation, and we should have a better idea about the validity of OTT giving up the pick as the draft approaches.

 

[canuckslover10]

Well i would give up the pick and trade duchene karlsson hoffman and whoever else you can for picks and prospects

 

[greasysnapper]

Here's a novel idea, what about dealing Karlsson to Colorado? They're on the cusp of something very very good.

The 2019 Ott 1st could be part of the package.

 

[DudeWhereIsMakar]

I would do it if I were them unless they find a way to retrieve that pick they traded. Although, it's best no youngsters go to Ottawa at this point as it looks like such a toxic environment. The Sens need to step back, take a breath, and get it together.

 

[Hasbro]

Ottawa has three possible avenues for getting the 2019 pick back:

1)Karlson

2) just giving up the #4 this year.

3) Trading down in the draft and asking Sakic if he'd take that pick in lieu of the pick next year.

 

[Balthazar]

An ideal solution would be to get a sweetener from COL to give up 4

This is the only solution to get out of this mess. You don't have a 2nd rounder this year and the AVS have two. Ask one 2nd rounder from COL + the 2019 1st in exchange for the 4OA this year.

or to make a deal with them (under the assumption that we're keeping 4) that we can trade down as high as X (so let's say they say 8) and they'll still be willing to take the pick.

If I'm Sakic I don't accept that. That's like tainting the product.

 

[Wallet Inspector]

"Sens can bounce back next year, you never know!"
If EK is gone:

Boedker-Duchene-Stone
Ryan-Pageau-Gaborik
Dzingel-Brown-White
Burrows-Paul-Pyatt

Chabot-Ceci
Claesson-Wideman
Wolanin-Harpur

Anderson
Condon

Someone please explain to me how that isn't a bottom 3 finish.

 

[Hasbro]

"Sens can bounce back next year, you never know!"
If EK is gone:

Boedker-Duchene-Stone
Ryan-Pageau-Gaborik
Dzingel-Brown-White
Burrows-Paul-Pyatt

Chabot-Ceci
Claesson-Wideman
Wolanin-Harpur

Anderson
Condon

Someone please explain to me how that isn't a bottom 3 finish.

UUUHHHH....Vegas.