Does Ottawa Now Flip their pick to Colorado to ensure a lottery selection next year?

[MarAlain MongYeo]

Given recent events it's hard to imagine that the Senators won't be the worst team in the NHL next season. I know the lottery can be a crabshoot and anything can happen but going into next year without having a lottery selection would be absolutely devastating for the Sens and their fans. I think it would be quite foolish if they didnt flip their pick to Colorado this year.

Click to read more...

 

[Kcb12345]

It's no guarantee they get a lottery pick next year either

 

[MarAlain MongYeo]

It's no guarantee they get a lottery pick next year either

I mean... yeah but with Hoffman all but gone and what will likely be a dejected locker room I can't think they will finish above the bottom 5 next year.

 

[LeafsNation75]

According to these links the Senators are keeping their 1st round pick this year.

The Senators will keep their top selection in the 2018 NHL draft

Senators will keep No. 4 pick; 2019 1st-rounder will go to Avs

 

[Sureves]

With Karlsson and Hoffman both traded (maybe Duchene too, possible Stone gets offer sheeted too) they are very likely to be bottom 5.

If I were in charge I'd give Colorado the pick this year.

 

[MarAlain MongYeo]

According to these links the Senators are keeping their 1st round pick this year.

The Senators will keep their top selection in the 2018 NHL draft

Senators will keep No. 4 pick; 2019 1st-rounder will go to Avs

Yeah, but things have changed since then.

 

[Ace]

There are only three places the pick can land that would be worse to give up and because of the lottery they have no control over those. Take the known and it is what it is.

Especially if Montreal does pass on Zadina. Take him and then take your lumps.

 

[Mickey Marner]

If they come last next year they are more likely to pick 4th, than 1st, 2nd or 3rd.

 

[Gil Gunderson]

No we’d lose the lottery next year as well.

 

[Oddbob]

I mean... yeah but with Hoffman all but gone and what will likely be a dejected locker room I can't think they will finish above the bottom 5 next year.

Thing is, this year is guaranteed to be 4th Overall, next year is a gamble, they could get 1st, but they could make the playoffs. The Hoffman thing, regardless the outcome from it, doesn't guarentee the team completely sucks. The players in that room still want to do well and win, sometimes these kind of things pull a team together.

How bad would it be for them, if they give up 4th overall, finish 7th worst next season and drop 3 spots in the lottery for example and end up with 10th OVR, or even worse make the playoffs, knocked out in the first round and get 17th or so?

 

[Yatzhee]

would draft picks even sign in Ottawa now given the toxic environment from top to bottom?

 

[Oddbob]

With Karlsson and Hoffman both traded (maybe Duchene too, possible Stone gets offer sheeted too) they are very likely to be bottom 5.

If I were in charge I'd give Colorado the pick this year.

HaHa, no one is getting offersheeted! Only players that in the entire league that might get that, are absolute Franchise players (McDavid, Crosby, Karlsson, etc.) and Stone is not even close to that discussion. Draisaitl wasn't even offersheeted last year, which proves the league basically has an unwritten rule that you don't do this.

 

[LeafsNation75]

If they come last next year they are more likely to pick 4th, than 1st, 2nd or 3rd.

So far with the current draft lottery format setup, here is how the last place teams have done in it.

2016: Leafs finished last place overall, won the 1st overall pick.

2017: Avalanche finished last place overall, feel to the 4th overall pick.

2018: Sabres finished last place overall, won the 1st overall pick.

 

[MarAlain MongYeo]

Thing is, this year is guaranteed to be 4th Overall, next year is a gamble, they could get 1st, but they could make the playoffs. The Hoffman thing, regardless the outcome from it, doesn't guarentee the team completely sucks. The players in that room still want to do well and win, sometimes these kind of things pull a team together.

How bad would it be for them, if they give up 4th overall, finish 7th worst next season and drop 3 spots in the lottery for example and end up with 10th OVR, or even worse make the playoffs, knocked out in the first round and get 17th or so?

What if EK doesn't come back the same player next year? Given all that's happened with injuries and issues it's not out of the ream of possibility that his days as unquestioned best D man in the game are over. If EK is anything less than other wordly, the Sens are all but f***ed. Similar to Montreal when Price is only average. It's almost a guarantee that Ottawa finishes bottom 5 next year. Worst case scenario is that they get the 8th pick, but it's still worth it to give yourselves a chance at Jack Hughes next year

 

[tucker3434]

If the Senators go 0-82 next year, the odds are that they’ll get the 4th overall pick. So I see no reason they should give this years 4 under pretty much any circumstances.

 

[Hale The Villain]

You don't pass up the 4th OVR pick to delay your pick by a year because it may be higher.

Having said this, if Sakic wanted to throw the Sens a couple decent assets to convince them to give the Avs the guaranteed top 5 pick this year, that could be a win-win.

 

[SI90]

You can’t give up a top5 pick. Even if you’re expected to be bad next year you just never know. they have to keep this years pick

 

[LeafsNation75]

You can’t give up a top5 pick. Even if you’re expected to be bad next year you just never know. they have to keep this years pick

I know they were not expected to be bottom 5 bad during the 2009-2010 season, but look at the Leafs that year who ended up giving Boston the 2nd overall pick in the 2010 draft.

 

[50 in 07]

So far with the current draft lottery format setup, here is how the last place teams have done in it.

2016: Leafs finished last place overall, won the 1st overall pick.

2017: Avalanche finished last place overall, feel to the 4th overall pick.

2018: Sabres finished last place overall, won the 1st overall pick.

A whopping 3 year sample size isn't proving anything. Statistically, the most likely outcome for the last place team is 4th overall. It doesn't matter if the last team wins the top pick a million times in a row it doesn't change the odds.

 

[SI90]

I know they were not expected to be bottom 5 bad during the 2009-2010 season, but look at the Leafs that year who ended up giving Boston the 2nd overall pick in the 2010 draft.

Do the leafs have an option to give up another pick? I don’t recall that? They gave up the 2010&2011 picks for Kessel. There were no options.

If the leafs had the 2nd overall in 2010 and had the option to defer the picks to 2011&2012 they most likely would have done so. They didn’t have that option. You can’t defer a top10 pick.

Look at the isles in with the Vanek trade. They had the top5 pick in 2014(Dal Colle) and people wanted them to give that up becuse the next year was the McDavid draft. The isles ended up picking later in the first in 2015(buffalo owned the pick)

2014 Dal Colle hasn’t done squat and 2015 the isles went into the draft win no first round picks and left with 2 ( Barzal and Beauvillier) who are big time players for them going forward.

You never know how things will workout but you can’t give up a top5 pick.

 

[Rhaegar Targaryen]

You absolutely keep this years pick. A guaranteed fourth overall this year is more valuable than any pick, right now, in next years draft.

 

[MarAlain MongYeo]

A whopping 3 year sample size isn't proving anything. Statistically, the most likely outcome for the last place team is 4th overall. It doesn't matter if the last team wins the top pick a million times in a row it doesn't change the odds.

You have a better chance at #1 overall if you have a lottery pick next year than you do if you don't have a lottery selection at all.

 

[LeafsNation75]

Do the leafs have an option to give up another pick? I don’t recall that? They gave up the 2010&2011 picks for Kessel. There were no options.

If the leafs had the 2nd overall in 2010 and had the option to defer the picks to 2011&2012 they most likely would have done so. They didn’t have that option. You can’t defer a top10 pick.

Look at the isles in with the Vanek trade. They had the top5 pick in 2014(Dal Colle) and people wanted them to give that up becuse the next year was the McDavid draft. The isles ended up picking later in the first in 2015(buffalo owned the pick)

2014 Dal Colle hasn’t done squat and 2015 the isles went into the draft win no first round picks and left with 2 ( Barzal and Beauvillier) who are big time players for them going forward.

You never know how things will workout but you can’t give up a top5 pick.

My point was no one thought the Leafs would have finished where they did and give away the 2nd overall pick in 2010. Obviously we all wish it was conditional where they could have kept it, since in 2011 they ended up giving away the 9th overall pick.

 

[LeafsNation75]

A whopping 3 year sample size isn't proving anything. Statistically, the most likely outcome for the last place team is 4th overall. It doesn't matter if the last team wins the top pick a million times in a row it doesn't change the odds.

Still given those odds 2/3 years the worst team still ended up winning the 1st overall pick.

 

[belair]

Ottawa is in the same division as Buffalo, Detroit, Montreal and Florida. There's no certainty they finish anywhere next season. They are in a craptastic division.