Does Ottawa Now Flip their pick to Colorado to ensure a lottery selection next year?

[Sensung]

How do u propose the Sens acquire that pick, from what team and with what trade pieces?

Are you suggesting that the Sens have no assets worth a first round pick?

Reminder, you are the one that stated that the Sens 2019 pick was the ONLY way they could win the lottery.

 

[GirardSpinorama]

Are you suggesting that the Sens have no assets worth a first round pick?

Reminder, you are the one that stated that the Sens 2019 pick was the ONLY way they could win the lottery.

Make a realistic proposal then.

 

[tarheelhockey]

No GM is going to give up #4 and essentially tell the owner and season ticket holders that we are going to be even worse next year.

Given the circumstances, I don’t think the Sens take that big a PR hit if they were to do this. They’ve basically hit rock bottom already... anyone who could be pissed that them already is. If I’m a Sens fan, I’m already probably taking next season off emotionally. I have to think a lot of people are at that point with them. But if they score the #1 OA, you can believe that people will flock back to them in a hurry.

A #4 is a good pick but it’s not a Hughes level game changer. It might be worth the risk to shoot their shot here, and try to cut years off that rebuild. If it blows up in their faces, it’s likely they don’t drop much if at all... and it’s not like they’re going to be raking in positive vibes right now regardless.

 

[Sensung]

Make a realistic proposal then.

No thanks.

I'm asking you if you still support the contention that the ONLY way for the Sens to have a shot at winning the draft lottery in 2019 is to re-acquire their pick.

 

[TheDoldrums]

What does #4 really give them? How much is a guy like Zadina going to alter their franchise?

Given the talent at the top of their division already and Buffalo coming on strong with Dahlin, it's going to take a lot more to compete every year. With EK seemingly on the way out, doesn't a full rebuild make the most sense? If that's the case, giving up the pick this year is not only defensible but the right move.

As for the PR hit, they're already in shambles. If you communicate a clear rebuilding process, a lot of the smarter fans will buy in. You don't keep the pick this year out of embarrassment and potentially hand Hughes over to Colorado, that's just compounding more bad decisions on top of each other.

 

[GirardSpinorama]

No thanks.

I'm asking you if you still support the contention that the only way for the Sens to have a shot at winning the draft lottery in 2019 is to re-acquire their pick.

Im asking you to propose a better alternative or even a realistic one. If you cant then you have given up on your argument.

 

[Sensung]

Im asking you to propose a better alternative or even a realistic one. If you cant then you have given up on your argument.

Sorry, but the onus is on you to back up your statement or admit you were wrong.

Once we crossed that bridge, then I'll point out the numerous assets the Sens could move to acquire a 2019 1st round pick.

 

[GirardSpinorama]

Sorry, but the onus is on you to back up your statement or admit you were wrong.

Once we crossed that bridge, then I'll point out the numerous assets the Sens could move to acquire a 2019 1st round pick.

Its not acquiring just a first round pick but a pick that can win the first overall pick. Karlsson, Duchene and Stone are not going to bad teams with a chance at first overall pick. And you’re not getting a first from a bad team for a one year rental. And even if they do, they will make that team better than the Sens, which means the sens best option would be their own 2019 pick. The rest of the sens prospects are not worth a first from a bad team.

 

[Sensung]

Its not acquiring just a first round pick but a pick that can win the first overall pick. Karlsson, Duchene and Stone are not going to bad teams with a chance at first overall pick. And you’re not getting a first from a bad team for a one year rental. And even if they do, they will make that team better than the Sens, which means the sens best option would be their own 2019 pick. The rest of the sens prospects are not worth a first from a bad team.

EVERY team that doesn't make the playoffs has a chance at winning the lottery.

Predicting the NHL is extremely difficult, so a team that seems like a safe bet to make the playoffs and have a good start to the season can upgrade their #1C and still finish 2nd last overall...

If you don't want to be challenged on factually incorrect posts, don't make them.

IF you had stated that the Sens are unlikely to get a 1st round pick back as valuable as their own, I'd agree. But what if the Sens get 3 1st rounders and one of those teams tanks or they get lucky on a long shot? Or what if the Sens defy expectations (something the team has consistently done for a decade) and make the playoffs themselves?

 

[GirardSpinorama]

EVERY team that doesn't make the playoffs has a chance at winning the lottery.

Predicting the NHL is extremely difficult, so a team that seems like a safe bet to make the playoffs and have a good start to the season can upgrade their #1C and still finish 2nd last overall...

If you don't want to be challenged on factually incorrect posts, don't make them.

IF you had stated that the Sens are unlikely to get a 1st round pick back as valuable as their own, I'd agree. But what if the Sens get 3 1st rounders and one of those teams tanks or they get lucky on a long shot? Or what if the Sens defy expectations (something the team has consistently done for a decade) and make the playoffs themselves?

Lol, if you are throwing out those type of scenarios then you might as well admit that all you want to argue about is a technicality. Anything can happen, the league can give the Sens the first overall pick next year as a sympathy gift.

 

[Freudian]

If Ottawa considers giving up the 4th overall they will call Avs and offer to do it for OTT 2019 1st + COL 2018 1st. Avs will obviously say no, but might counter with something like OTT 2019 1st, NSH 2018 2nd (58th overall), OTT 2019 3rd. It could be enough for OTT to just get the trade over with.

 

[Sensung]

Lol, if you are throwing out those type of scenarios then you might as well admit that all you want to argue about is a technicality. Anything can happen, the league can give the Sens the first overall pick next year as a sympathy gift.

Weak attempt at deflection.

You posted something that was factually wrong. I called you on it and you proceeded to do anything to try and not admit your error.

Sorry, but that won't play.

 

[milehigh11]

If Ottawa considers giving up the 4th overall they will call Avs and offer to do it for OTT 2019 1st + COL 2018 1st. Avs will obviously say no, but might counter with something like OTT 2019 1st, NSH 2018 2nd (58th overall), OTT 2019 3rd. It could be enough for OTT to just get the trade over with.

The Avs will still say no. It will be the 4th or we just get the one in 2019 unprotected. The pick wasnt suppose to be high. Anything in the top 10 next year in a deeper draft is a bonus.

 

[GirardSpinorama]

Weak attempt at deflection.

You posted something that was factually wrong. I called you on it and you proceeded to do anything to try and not admit your error.

Sorry, but that won't play.

You’re pretty sad, but its good that you actually helped me prove my point that the Sens “best” option at Hughes is to use their pick in 2019. Thanks!

 

[Sensung]

You’re pretty sad, but its good that you actually helped me prove my point that the Sens “best” option at Hughes is to use their pick in 2019. Thanks!

Except that wasn't your point. You stated that it was the ONLY way for the Sens to have a shot at Hughes.

Unfortunately for you, I will continue to point out your error, even if you are too small an individual to admit your mistake.

 

[agent082]

They should if there is generational talent next year, but there isn't.

 

[GirardSpinorama]

Except that wasn't your point. You stated that it was the ONLY way for the Sens to have a shot at Hughes.

Unfortunately for you, I will continue to point out your error, even if you are too small an individual to admit your mistake.

Go re-read my post again. I said there is a rational case for the Sens to give up this year’s pick. Thanks for being such a big man for pointing out that technically the Sens can also gain the first overall pick by trading with Washington. But you lost the argument overally because you essentially admitted that there is a rational case for the Sens to use their own pick in 2019, as it is unlikely for them for gain a more valuable one.

 

[Sensung]

Go re-read my post again. I said there is a rational case for the Sens to give up this year’s pick. Thanks for being such a big man for pointing out that technically the Sens can also gain the first overall pick by trading with Washington. But you lost the argument overally because you essentially admitted that there is a rational case for the Sens to use their own pick in 2019, as it is unlikely for them for gain a more valuable one.

Flailing around to try avoid admitting your mistake. More pitiful with each attempt.

Stating
the Sens are unlikely to get a 1st round pick back as valuable as their own, I'd agree in hypothetical trades the Sens might make is irrelevant to the rationality surrounding the choice to keep this year's selection.

I know you'll miss (or misrepresent) the point to try to avoid facing your error, but YOUR argument was that the Sens should give up this year's pick as it was THE ONLY WAY to get a shot at the number 1 in 2019.

 

[Sensung]

Basic math: Ottawa's finish next season:

worst: 50.6% chance to pick 4th again
2nd worst: 61.2% chance they pick 4th or worse -- 27.9% chance to pick 5th
3rd worst: 66.1% chance they pick 4th or worse -- 52.9% chance they pick 5th or worse
4th worst: 68.4% chance they pick 5th or worse

Odds are against Ottawa getting a better pick next season.

For reference

 

[Sensung]

There is a rational case. Like a previous poster said, Ottawa's only chance at the first overall pick in 2019 is to give this pick to the Avs. IF they believe that they absolutely need a future franchise centre (there are none in this draft) in Jack Hughes by 2019, then it makes since to take that risk. Yes, they could end up 4th or even worse pick, but MAYBE they feel its worth it for that chance.

For reference.

Anytime you are ready to admit your error is fine with me.

 

[GirardSpinorama]

Flailing around to try avoid admitting your mistake. More pitiful with each attempt.

Stating
the Sens are unlikely to get a 1st round pick back as valuable as their own, I'd agree in hypothetical trades the Sens might make is irrelevant to the rationality surrounding the choice to keep this year's selection.

I know you'll miss (or misrepresent) the point to try to avoid facing your error, but YOUR argument was that the Sens should give up this year's pick as it was THE ONLY WAY to get a shot at the number 1 in 2019.

I already said that technically the sens can still pick first overall in some extremely unlikely fashion. You happy??

But it does not invalid my argument that there is rationality in the Sens choosing to take the 2019 first round pick instead. The fact that you are so stuck on the technicality, rather than debating what matters in this thread (whether or not the Sens should take the pick in 18 or 19), just proves that you’re petty.

 

[Sensung]

I already said that technically the sens can still pick first overall in some extremely unlikely fashion. You happy??

But it does not invalid my argument that there is rationality in the Sens choosing to take the 2019 first round pick instead. The fact that you are so stuck on the technicality, rather than debating what matters in this thread (whether or not the Sens should take the pick in 18 or 19), just proves that you’re petty.

Pety would be taking 10 posts just to admit a simple error.

 

[GirardSpinorama]

Pety would be taking 10 posts just to admit a simple error.

You’re also a hypocrite. Maybe you should stop deflecting and argue why it is not rational for the sens to take their chance at jack hughes next year by sacrificing the 4th pick.

 

[JetsHomer]

For reference.

Anytime you are ready to admit your error is fine with me.

Sure you could acquire a pick that isn’t lottery protected. Going to be hard to find a GM as dumb or incompetent as Dorian to take advantage of though

 

[Sensung]

You’re also a hypocrite. Maybe you should stop deflecting and argue why it is not rational for the sens to take their chance at jack hughes next year by sacrificing the 4th pick.

Now that you have finally gotten around to admitting your error, I'll gladly explain my position.

There is simply too narrow a window of possibilities that the Sens pick next year will be better than this year to justify the risk in giving up a top level prospect this draft.

1) The draft lottery is set up such that even if the Sens fall apart and finish 31st, the most likely draft position is 4th (exactly the same slot as this season. Any placement outside the bottom 3 makes the odds of getting even the 4th pick way too slim.

2) The Sens can acquire a lottery ticket through trade. It will likely be a long shot, but they can still be in the mix.

3) Anderson's yearly pattern of goaltending suggest that he is in for a bounce back. That alone will mean the Sens are unlikely to finish in the bottom 5 again.

4) Sens management is having trouble selling tickets as is. If they take away all hope and bet against the team, it will get even worse.

5) Sens management can't tell their team they have no hope before the season even begins.

6) The Sens had a fractured dressing room last year and massively under performed. They will address this issue this summer and should get back to playing as a team, a hallmark of their run to within a goal of the Stanley Cup Final just over 12 months ago.

7) The ownership situation is coming to a head. Melnyk will sell at some point, so it makes zero sense for the team to make a panic move now and play the longshot that they win the lottery next season.

So in short, although there are some worst case scenarios where the Sens come out slightly ahead by turning over this year's pick, the rational course of action is to play the odds and work like crazy to make sure they finish as high as possible next year.

Finally, if you truly believe that the Sens would screw the Avs over by giving them this year's selection, why are you fighting so hard to make the case? You should be ecstatic that I am too unaware to know what is best for my team and hope that Dorion is of like mind.