Speculation: Does Matthews really deserve 10mil a year?

[Duke Silver]

8x8 for matthews
7x8 for marner
6x8 for nylander
I can dream right?

I've got Matthews at 10.75m, Marner at 7.75m and Nylander at 7m.

 

[Buds17]

Minor correction, AAV is Average Annual Value, that is, the average amount earned each year. So, the AAV on a 8 x 10M deal is 10M. It would be the total value of the contract that would be 3M more. The AAV would be 1M less.

Right. That's the point I was trying to convey, but I see where my method of doing so wasn't the best. Smaller cap hit but more money overall for Matthews in comparison to Tavares.

 

[Apotheosis]

If we get Matthews for under 10 mill somehow, consider it highway robbery. We're talking about by far the best even strength goal scorer in the league. A guy who paced for an over PPG season (63 in 62) while having over 10 less power play points the year before (adjust that and he scores over 90 THIS YEAR). He has 100 point, elite defensive potential. You lock that up and watch the contract become a steal. He was producing PPG WITH HYMAN. Imagine what he's going to do with Marleau and Nylander!

 

[Phion Keneuf]

you do realize that Eichel and Tavares had basically identical PPG's over the last 2 years .94 and .95 so if Eichel is overpaid then did we overpay for Tavares?

Except Tavares’ overall game is much better than Eichel’s ever will be.

 

[biotk]

Part of a post I put elsewhere (but further edited here). Matthews is easily worth 11M a year.

Matthews second year:
5v5 G/60 - 1.68 (1st in the NHL - 22% higher than second place Karlsson. Matthews was also 1st in his rookie season) (Tavares was at 0.93 last year. His best year was the shortened 2012/13 season when he was 1.32)

5v5 Pts/60 - 2.91 (3rd in the NHL behind McDavid and MacKinnon. 31st in his rookie season.) (Tavares was 2.02 last year. His best year was 2.38 in 2013/14)

5v5 Primary Pts/60 2.58 (1st in the NHL by a pretty healthy margin. 7th in his rookie season) (Tavares was 1.61 last year. His best year was 2.09 in 2015/16)

The last time a player had a 5v5 G/60 higher than Matthews in 2017/18 was Nash in 2014/15. Stamkos did in 2011/12. Ovechkin has not.

The last time a player had a 5v5 Primary Pts/60 higher than Matthews in 2017/18 was Perry in 2013/14. Crosby exceeded it (often by a wide margin) several years before that. Malkin did once. Patrick Kane has never come close.

Career 5v5 Primary Pts/60 Crosby has 2.25, Matthews 2.24, McDavid 2.22, Malkin 2.11. Barzal is at 2.04 Others are far behind (Kucherov: 1.83, Tavares 1.70, Drai: 1.53, Eichel: 1.39)

Career 5v5 G/60: Matthews 1.61; Laine 1.24; Boeser 1.22, Stamkos 1.19; Ovechkin 1.19; Nash 1.16 (Tavares 0.93) (The gap between number 2 and number 6 is very close. The gap between Matthews and the 2nd place player is bonkers)

What Matthews has done is pretty special. He hasn't had the luxury of getting to load up on points by playing 75% of the PP time on a top heavy unit. Kucherov, Drai, Eichel, Tavares etc. Despite all of them being older, none of them have been able to do what Matthews has been able to do.

 

[DanM]

I've got Matthews at 10.75m, Marner at 7.75m and Nylander at 7m.

Sure hope not

 

[DanM]

If we get Matthews for under 10 mill somehow, consider it highway robbery. We're talking about by far the best even strength goal scorer in the league. A guy who paced for an over PPG season (63 in 62) while having over 10 less power play points the year before (adjust that and he scores over 90 THIS YEAR). He has 100 point, elite defensive potential. You lock that up and watch the contract become a steal. He was producing PPG WITH HYMAN. Imagine what he's going to do with Marleau and Nylander!

He should come in under 10. If you minus the Edmonton and Buffalo stupidity contracts, that's the comparable for him. I know he is special, but these kids should not be coming out as an RFA and receiving these kind of contracts, they should be getting that money on the second one. I get all the variables involved, but something needs to be done about this during the next CBA.

Put the team first, you are god damn 20 years old, f***ing earn something in the league. If he makes more than Kuch or JT, that's stupid and he should be ashamed, it will cripple the team, and people will not be impressed in leaf land. It would also show what he truly values.

The three SHOULD come in at

Wille=6
Mitch=6.5
Matty=8-9.5 (but that's because we have no choice to appease him the most)

When that second contract comes, swing for the damn moon, you have earned it. Jesus, look at both of Kucherovs contracts, that is a team player.

So the answer is NO he has not earned 10m yet, and Eichel has not earned 10m, and Drai has not earned 8.5. If we run our team this way, teams like Boston and Tampa will eat our lunch paying guys like Stammer, Pasta, Kuch, Hedman etc. what they do.

 

[TML1967]

I think Kucherov may have helped us a bit with Matthews and da boys
9.75x8 which are majority UFA years after a 100 point season is nutty.
Doubt Nylander or Marner break a PPG next year, and doubt Matthews breaks 90 (mostly because of the need to spread out the offence over 3 lines)

I think Matthews comes in under 10 million for 8 years.
Marner 7ish for 8 years. Nylander at 6ish for 8 years.

 

[DanM]

Except Tavares’ overall game is much better than Eichel’s ever will be.

I agree

Eichel is a kid, JT earned his dues, and is paid accordingly, and has a better overall game.

Eichel is still getting his diaper changed lol

 

[biotk]

I know he is special, but these kids should not be coming out as an RFA and receiving these kind of contracts, they should be getting that money on the second one. I get all the variables involved, but something needs to be done about this during the next CBA.

Put the team first, you are god damn 20 years old, ****ing earn something in the league. If he makes more than Kuch or JT, that's stupid and he should be ashamed, it will cripple the team, and people will not be impressed in leaf land. It would also show what he truly values.

Pretty much every terrible contract I can think of is/was a UFA contract. The league has 3 year ELCs to stop contract situations like what happened with Daigle (even there I disagree that rules needed to be put in place to save idiot GMs from themselves - maybe get rid of GMs who are idiots instead). If you prove during your ELC that you are one of the best players in the league - you deserve to be paid as much as the best players in the league. If GMs have to start paying star RFAs what they are worth then they will be forced to stop giving out stupid contracts to UFAs. I don't think that Kucherov or JT are better than Matthews right now (the main argument that they are is based on massive PP production, which Matthews had no opportunity to replicate) - and it is extremely unlikely they will be half way through their next contracts.

 

[TIGERCOOL]

Part of a post I put elsewhere (but further edited here). Matthews is easily worth 11M a year.

Matthews second year:
5v5 G/60 - 1.68 (1st in the NHL - 22% higher than second place Karlsson. Matthews was also 1st in his rookie season) (Tavares was at 0.93 last year. His best year was the shortened 2012/13 season when he was 1.32)

5v5 Pts/60 - 2.91 (3rd in the NHL behind McDavid and MacKinnon. 31st in his rookie season.) (Tavares was 2.02 last year. His best year was 2.38 in 2013/14)

5v5 Primary Pts/60 2.58 (1st in the NHL by a pretty healthy margin. 7th in his rookie season) (Tavares was 1.61 last year. His best year was 2.09 in 2015/16)

The last time a player had a 5v5 G/60 higher than Matthews in 2017/18 was Nash in 2014/15. Stamkos did in 2011/12. Ovechkin has not.

The last time a player had a 5v5 Primary Pts/60 higher than Matthews in 2017/18 was Perry in 2013/14. Crosby exceeded it (often by a wide margin) several years before that. Malkin did once. Patrick Kane has never come close.

Career 5v5 Primary Pts/60 Crosby has 2.25, Matthews 2.24, McDavid 2.22, Malkin 2.11. Barzal is at 2.04 Others are far behind (Kucherov: 1.83, Tavares 1.70, Drai: 1.53, Eichel: 1.39)

Career 5v5 G/60: Matthews 1.61; Laine 1.24; Boeser 1.22, Stamkos 1.19; Ovechkin 1.19; Nash 1.16 (Tavares 0.93) (The gap between number 2 and number 6 is very close. The gap between Matthews and the 2nd place player is bonkers)

What Matthews has done is pretty special. He hasn't had the luxury of getting to load up on points by playing 75% of the PP time on a top heavy unit. Kucherov, Drai, Eichel, Tavares etc. Despite all of them being older, none of them have been able to do what Matthews has been able to do.

Let's hope he and his agent aren't leading with this... though in this day and age they probably are

 

[zeke]

Let's hope he and his agent aren't leading with this... though in this day and age they probably are

they should be.

 

[DanM]

Pretty much every terrible contract I can think of is/was a UFA contract. The league has 3 year ELCs to stop contract situations like what happened with Daigle (even there I disagree that rules needed to be put in place to save idiot GMs from themselves - maybe get rid of GMs who are idiots instead). If you prove during your ELC that you are one of the best players in the league - you deserve to be paid as much as the best players in the league. If GMs have to start paying star RFAs what they are worth then they will be forced to stop giving out stupid contracts to UFAs. I don't think that Kucherov or JT are better than Matthews right now (the main argument that they are is based on massive PP production, which Matthews had no opportunity to replicate) - and it is extremely unlikely they will be half way through their next contracts.

I do agree with that, and you are right, those UFA contracts have historically been crippling. I just think if you are paying a kid, it should be only based on comparable production, cap percentage, and contract AVV of other similar players.

The cap will increase, so I get the percentage change, but paying him what Kuch and JT get, or more than McDavid seems wrong, and not his comparable yet, even though I believe he will be up there with McDavid down the road, but he is not there yet. I don't like paying for potential when other guys have done it.

But obviously there are many stats and metrics that can be used to make cases, so it's not so cut and dry.

 

[Duke Silver]

Sure hope not

Best reset your expectations.

Signing these three for less than a combined $25m would be an incredible feat.

 

[DanM]

Best reset your expectations.

Signing these three for less than a combined $25m would be an incredible feat.

Guess it depends on how much they want to win, and fill the roster, can't have both most times.

I see nothing wrong with the Ehlers, Pasta, and Kucherov contracts, that is reasonable and in line production wise, hell they have not even had the same production as the guys I mentioned lol what makes them so extra special (even though I do believe they will be super special) the production still speaks for itself.

Ideally we want to have the 4 big names signed for less than 35million per. This would allow us to keep adding, hell look at Tampa, it can be done, if they want to win.

 

[Menzinger]

Also worth noting that you can guarantee Matthews agent has noted that 1) Matthews icetime is less than other similar players and 2) they stuck him on the 2nd PP unit.

Not going to get him in a discount that way (though I’m sure he’ll eventually sign a fair deal with the Leafs)

 

[biotk]

Jesus, look at both of Kucherovs contracts, that is a team player.

Perhaps Kucherov realized that 83 of his 100 points last year came while on the ice with Stamkos.

This year Kucherov's 5v5 pts/60 were 4th in the NHL (behind McDavid, MacKinnon and Matthews), but when on the ice with Stamkos they would have led the league by a large margin. When on the ice without Stamkos they would have placed him 72nd (the year before was similar despite Stamkos missing most of the season - Kucherov with Stamkos would have led the league in 5v5 pts/60 by a large margin, and was 45th in 5v5 pts/60 without him).

 

[DanM]

Perhaps Kucherov realized that 83 of his 100 points last year came while on the ice with Stamkos.

This year Kucherov's 5v5 pts/60 were 4th in the NHL (behind McDavid, MacKinnon and Matthews), but when on the ice with Stamkos they would have led the league by a large margin. When on the ice without Stamkos they would have placed him 72nd (the year before was similar despite Stamkos missing most of the season - Kucherov with Stamkos would have led the league in 5v5 pts/60 by a large margin, and was 45th in 5v5 pts/60 without him).

I agree that's a major difference, and prob something Kuch thought about for sure. For the record I do think Kuch does one thing with elite skill, and that's score, but he is not great in other areas.

But boy can he put the puck in the net lol

I still think when listening to him speak, he is all team and wants cups, I admire that as he could have commanded 12 per easily on the open market.

 

[Duke Silver]

Guess it depends on how much they want to win, and fill the roster, can't have both most times.

I see nothing wrong with the Ehlers, Pasta, and Kucherov comparables

Well, the Kucherov deal was signed in Florida, where $9.5m looks like $11m+ in Toronto. I don't think that's a good comparable for Matthews.

Ehlers signed his deal before the third year of his ELC started. In those first two years, he put up 0.66 points-per-game. Over 82 games, this comes to 54 points. He signed for $6m per (8% of cap).
Pastrnak signed his deal after the conclusion of his ELC. In the latest two years of his ELC, he put up 0.76 points-per-game. Over 82 games, this comes to 62 points. He signed for $6.67m per (8.9% of cap).

Nylander, last two seasons: 0.75 ppg (we'll use Pastrnak as the comparable here: 8.9% of 18-19 cap @ 79.5m = $7.08m... let's round that down to $7m)
Marner, last two seasons: 0.82 ppg (there really isn't a good comparable for Marner, so let's just mark up the Pastrnak %: 9.5% of 19-20 cap @ 81.5m = $7.74m... let's round that to $7.75m)

As for Matthews, Eichel is probably his best comparable and the one his agent will use. There's no question that he's better than Eichel, but he'll also come in beneath Tavares... I'm thinking high 10's, especially with the cap going up $2m at minimum next season.

 

[DanM]

Well, the Kucherov deal was signed in Florida, where $9.5m looks like $11m+ in Toronto. I don't think that's a good comparable for Matthews.

Ehlers signed his deal before the third year of his ELC started. In those first two years, he put up 0.66 points-per-game. Over 82 games, this comes to 54 points. He signed for $6m per (8% of cap).
Pastrnak signed his deal after the conclusion of his ELC. In the latest two years of his ELC, he put up 0.76 points-per-game. Over 82 games, this comes to 62 points. He signed for $6.67m per (8.9% of cap).

Nylander, last two seasons: 0.75 ppg (we'll use Pastrnak as the comparable here: 8.9% of 18-19 cap @ 79.5m = $7.08m... let's round that down to $7m)
Marner, last two seasons: 0.82 ppg (there really isn't a good comparable for Marner, so let's just mark up the Pastrnak %: 9.5% of 19-20 cap @ 81.5m = $7.74m... let's round that to $7.75m)

As for Matthews, Eichel is probably his best comparable and the one his agent will use. There's no question that he's better than Eichel, but he'll also come in beneath Tavares... I'm thinking high 10's, especially with the cap going up $2m at minimum next season.

That makes sense, and great use of numbers (I totally get lazy with that stuff on here, I do numbers all day at work lol)

I still think (or I guess hope) that maybe they have all talked about taking a tad less to compete more as a team. I am not saying grossly underpaid, but it would be nice to see Marner come in a tad under 7, Nylander a tad under 6.5, and Matty at 10 (even being better than Eichel) I hope they see that JT took a lot less (plus lose a year) to play and win in Toronto.

 

[biotk]

I still think when listening to him speak, he is all team and wants cups, I admire that as he could have commanded 12 per easily on the open market.

I agree that Kuch probably could have signed for significantly more if he wanted to draw it out and fight for it. I hope that Dubas can sell a vision to the 3 young stars to leave money on the table in the hope of winning cups.

But at the same time Kuch is not just being sold a strong chance at a cup(s). He is being sold a work environment where he plays a lot with players like Stamkos, gets 20 minutes a night (despite all of really strong forwards on that team), and gets big time PP minutes with all the best players, and is a go to guy playing in all of the most important situations.

Dubas is trying to sell Matthews, Marner and Nylander a strong chance at a cup(s) and a work environment where 2 of the 3 have been sent to the fourth line at times, Matthews gets 18 minutes a night (the other two 16) and half as many PP minutes as someone like Kucherov received, and often on the PP with someone like Komarov, and are usually not trusted for the most important situations - how many times did Komarov start for 3-on-3 OTs?

I just don't think that makes things as easy when you are asking players to leave money on the table and buy in. If I was one of those young stars I would want to know that the team is just as committed to me as they want me to be to them before signing a long contract and leaving money on the table.

 

[Battle Lin]

going by his first two year production hes worth about 10mill...if he has a 40 40 80 point year, which hes capable of, hes worth 11

 

[loyaltotheend]

Seems to be the going rate these days for franchise #1 centres, if Dubas can pull off 9.5 we should all be ecstatic. 10 million max is what I expect though.

10 is definitely not the max Matthews is able to get. Wouldn't be surprised if it's 11, same as Tavares

 

[diceman934]

In Matthews rookie season he scored 40 goals and was tied for 2nd in the NHL in that category. So if Jack Eichel can get 8 years and $10 million when he's not as good, obviously Matthews deserves at least $10 million a year. In fact he should be making more than Eichel.

So Eichel is over paid by Buffalo means we should follow suit and over Pay Mathews. That is so poor logic for sure. Eichel got over paid by an idiot and he should not have gotten a penny over 8.5m per. Mathews should have slotted in above Eichel at around the 9.5m per to 10m per. Now it is going to cost us more.

Hopefully we can sign all 3 for 7-8 year deals with each leaving some money on the table to help keep us strong. It is Marner we need to get signed long term this summer as if he goes past this summer his contract will cost us a lot more.

 

[LeafsFan89]

Perhaps Eichel is the outlier. What is the average salary of Matthews' comparables?