Speculation: Does Matthews really deserve 10mil a year?

[Joey Hoser]

Can someone please explain me how exactly the p/60 works?

It's the average number of points they get for every 60 minutes of play, usually separated by situation(PK, PP, ES).

 

[Shanty]

I did a similar thing a while ago with primary points. It boosted up Willy quite a bit. I'm fairly certain it was while discussing how similar he and Marner had been, and I'm fairly certain he ended up over him. That's the thing with that second PP. It's all Matthews and Nylander. Our top unit is run by Marner, but Rielly, Kadri and JvR also created a lot on that unit. You need multiple threats like that for a PP unit to be really good. I have no idea how Willy and Auston could go a whole season at their torrent pace, especially considering how easy the adjustment was.

That sounds interesting, do you remember where you posted it?

Being that Marner and Nylander play the same spot on the powerplay, Marner's unit being more successful this season could definitely account for the disparity in their points totals.

 

[IBeL34f]

Can someone please explain me how exactly the p/60 works?

Rather than using Points per Game, which assumes all players are receiving the same amount of ice time, P/60 looks at how many points a player puts up for every 60 minutes of icetime they receive in order to try and level that playing field.

In order to determine a player's P/60, you would divide their total TOI by 60, then divide their point total by that result.

For an example, McDavid scored 108 points in 1,767 minutes last year - 1,767 divided by 60 gives you 29.45 (McDavid received 29.45 games' worth of TOI last year) - 108 points divided by 29.45 gives you about 3.67 P/60 - If McDavid were to play the entire 60 minutes of a game, he would (on average, theoretically) produce 3.67 points every game.

 

[Duke Silver]

Can someone please explain me how exactly the p/60 works?

Think of it this way: points-per-game doesn't take into account whether a player plays 2 minutes or 20 minutes in a game. So using a per-game rate can be deceiving.

By dividing points into time on ice for a per-minute view, it accounts for how productive that player is with the TOI he's given. We multiply this by 60 for a per-hour view, because without that we'd be comparing per-minute rates like 0.0674 vs. 0.0653 against each other. Multiplying by 60 just makes the comparison of numbers that much easier, and we're trained to use per-hour rates for other things like kilometers-per-hour or kilowatts-per-hour.

So essentially P/60 = Points-per-hour-played.

 

[Duke Silver]

Not knocking him, as I think he's done a fantastic job, but I'd like to see how many of those PP points are secondary assists from giving the puck to Marner.

Rielly at the high point passes to Marner at the top of the right circle. Marner does the "Marner thing", puck's tipped in. Secondary apple to Rielly.

You're right.

Marner's P1/60 is 5.16 (7th). Rielly's is 3.06 (111th).

Other Leafs in P1/60:

3. Nylander - 5.57
6. Kadri - 5.28
16. JVR - 4.59
17. Matthews - 4.49
41. Tavares - 3.94
63. Bozak - 3.68
138. Komarov - 2.73
195. Gardiner - 1.59

 

[Joey Hoser]

Not knocking him, as I think he's done a fantastic job, but I'd like to see how many of those PP points are secondary assists from giving the puck to Marner.

Rielly at the high point passes to Marner at the top of the right circle. Marner does the "Marner thing", puck's tipped in. Secondary apple to Rielly.

That's not necessarily a bad thing though. He supposed to set it up, draw a guy or two over to open up Marner, then give it to him. You wouldn't want him to do anything else.

 

[Shanty]

That's not necessarily a bad thing though. He supposed to set it up, draw a guy or two over to open up Marner, then give it to him. You wouldn't want him to do anything else.

Absolutely. Like I said, not knocking him, I just don't think we're getting an accurate picture of Rielly's offensive value if we look at those point totals in a vacuum. He's still arguably our best defensemen.

 

[Nithoniniel]

You're right.

Marner's P1/60 is 5.16 (7th). Rielly's is 3.06 (111th).

Other Leafs in P1/60:

3. Nylander - 5.57
6. Kadri - 5.28
16. JVR - 4.59
17. Matthews - 4.49
41. Tavares - 3.94
63. Bozak - 3.68
138. Komarov - 2.73
195. Gardiner - 1.59

It's nice to make claims and then have other people back it up

Thanks, Duke.

Those Willy numbers are interesting. Kinda shows that if it doesn't run directly through him, it didn't really happen on that unit. Another way to read it is that unlike the Marner unit, the Willy/Auston unit relied upon clean plays. Passes opening up space, and snipes to finish it.

That's not necessarily a bad thing though. He supposed to set it up, draw a guy or two over to open up Marner, then give it to him. You wouldn't want him to do anything else.

The same goes for Marner in many ways. He certainly runs that unit, but it thrives on chaos and in that chaos we often get several touches before goal. That way he racks up secondary assists, but they are just as crucial as a primary point.

 

[Duke Silver]

Those Willy numbers are interesting. Kinda shows that if it doesn't run directly through him, it didn't really happen on that unit. Another way to read it is that unlike the Marner unit, the Willy/Auston unit relied upon clean plays. Passes opening up space, and snipes to finish it.

It's funny. People might refer to our PP1/2 as the Matthews/Tavares units, but it's Marner/Nylander who really run the show.

I feel Marner has a little bit more passing creativity than Nylander on the powerplay. His ability to pick apart teams' structures and find that little bit of safe space for a pass is Backstrom-esque. I noticed teams were getting wise to the royal road pass from Nylander to Matthews through the slot, towards the end of year. Although the one thing Nylander has that Marner doesn't, is a deadly release. Goalies have to respect his shot.

Should be interesting how the units shake out with Kadri/Johnsson likely manning the slot on PP1/2. Nylander/Marner each take the right-side part of the umbrella. Matthews/Tavares take the left-side of the umbrella, I guess? Marleau/Kapanen/Brown take the JVR spot down low?

​	​	NET​	​	​
​	​	#12​	​	​
​	​	​	​	​
​	​	#18​	​	​
#34​	​	​	​	#29​
​	​	#44​	​	​

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

PP1: Matthews-Nylander-Johnsson-Marleau-Rielly

​	​	NET​	​	​
​	​	#24​	​	​
​	​	​	​	​
​	​	#43​	​	​
#91​	​	​	​	#16​
​	​	#51​	​	​

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

PP2: Tavares-Marner-Kadri-Kapanen-Gardiner

 

[IBeL34f]

While I'm not exactly an expert at reading these charts yet, Matthews seems to have the edge almost everywhere:

 

[IBeL34f]

If you just look at this year, 1) Tavares' playmaking was absolutely unreal, and 2) Matthews made some huge strides in his game, especially as far as zone exits are concerned, while also receiving tougher usage:

 

[56 Years No Cup]

The game is played on the ice not on a stat sheet. Heart and Leadership matter.

 

[IBeL34f]

The game is played on the ice not on a stat sheet. Heart and Leadership matter.

I agree with that - Tangible evidence helps account for things like biases, though, and, in my case at least, the huge difference in exposure. (While Tavares has been in the League a lot longer, I've already seen way more of Matthews' play in 2 years than I've ever seen of Tavares'.)

Do you have an argument regarding these players' respective hearts and leadership qualities that you'd like to pose?

 

[DKH]

After seeing where the market is going after Tom Wilson and Brady Skjei signed for the title amount should be $12 M

By year 4-5 $12 M may not be a top 10 league contract

League has lost its mind

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

The game is played on the ice not on a stat sheet. Heart and Leadership matter.

The stats are literally just a record of what happens on the ice

 

[IBeL34f]

The stats are literally just a record of what happens on the ice

They do have some limitations, though - They (or at least the ones that I presented above) can't show when a player is playing through an injury, for example.

At the end of the day, I'm just happy we have 2 unquestionably elite centers on our roster. I have complete faith that our team of capologists will get the money sorted out just fine for Matthews, as well as Willy and Marner, but we're gonna be golden for a long, long time, whether we give Auston $9M a year or $12M.

 

[crump]

Crazy to realize we are debating who is better. They are both elite, Matthews is just warming up, Tavares is a little more proven. Both are in the top 10 centres of the league, and we have both. I just hope Matthews signs for no more than Tavares although both are worth more.

 

[Swedish Gretzky]

I dont think Matthews should get 10 mill. Hopefully for leafs 8-9.5 mill. He hasnt proved enough to warrant 10+

8x8 and hes set for life. get her done Dubas

 

[hotpaws]

I dont think Matthews should get 10 mill. Hopefully for leafs 8-9.5 mill. He hasnt proved enough to warrant 10+

8x8 and hes set for life. get her done Dubas

so not only do you want him to take much less than his comparables you also want to chew up the majority of his prime

if we do try to force him to accept 8m it'll be for 2 to 4 years and then he'll sign a deal to make him a ufa as soon as possible

 

[Leafslet]

obviously you are the same person with a different account, stop trying so hard

lol it actually isn’t surprisingly.