Speculation: Does Matthews really deserve 10mil a year?

[stickty111]

You are lost because I have no idea what the hell you are talking about on JVR. I never used the word "tough" and JVR in the same sentence. If you go look I said trade him early last year, we aren't going anywhere in 2018. Of course we didn't and you got nothing for him while losing anyway. It is because of fans like you Toronto never wins.

No it is because of fans like you Toronto never wins.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

I'm surprised Crosby's starts in the defensive zone were so low last year.

Matthews I think is going to be an analytical darling for his entire career.

Ya so were Malkin so I'm guessing the Pens start a lot of shifts in the offensive zone as a team so none of their centers can even have that many defensive zone starts.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Nope, not yet............

I imagine he is a 10m+ player but it's speculative for me at this point. My biggest concern being his back.

Me too.

 

[biotk]

I'm prepared to bridge him if he wants.

Seek help.

 

[darrylsittler27]

If you overpay him then you get a Chicago situation. We have a lot of young guys who will want raises soon. You are aware that in a sense Mathews decides his own outcome anyway. Im just not into getting into cap hell, whereas you are.

 

[The_Chosen_One]

I'd preferably want to lock him up for $9 million per. You'd think he'd take less than his senior John Tavares, but 10 million should be manageable.

 

[Mess]

Jack Eichel got a C.H.%

: 13.33 on $76 mil cap ceiling = $10 mil AAV
vs
Connor McDavid got a C.H.%

: 16.67 on a $76 cap ceiling = $12.5 mil AAV

Auston Matthews is the mid point of these 2 comparables (13.33 + 16.67 /2) = C.H.%

: 15.00
&
C.H.%

: 15.00 on $80 mil cap ceiling = $12 mil AAV.

So if you split the difference by taking the average % = 15% (individual cap hit) and on an increasing Cap that works out to 8 years @ $12 mil = $96 mil contract.

 

[Nithoniniel]

Not worth reading. Statistical cherry picker

I took a gander and you were absolutely right.

 

[Notsince67]

I took a gander and you were absolutely right.

I know right? Most of his articles have numbers that support confirmation bias. He is a leaf homer but I don't find them informative

 

[Hockey Crazy]

Matthews is well worth 10 mil. I would offer him 10.75 x 8 and be done with it... say the .25 less than Tavares is for the extra year of term. Guy is going to be performing way over his pay by the half way mark of that contract.

 

[Leafslet]

matthews is by far the better player between himself and tavares, so i don't see why not.

 

[Notsince67]

matthews is by far the better player between himself and tavares, so i don't see why not.

I am not sure you can say this for certain. "By far" is pretty big. Tavares has some pretty big shoes to fill.

 

[Daisy Jane]

I've been saying this for years. Forced parity is bogus, amd only in place to prop up Bettman's pet projects. Profitable teams shouldn't be punished for having more rabid fan bases.

Well I don't blame Bettman for that.
There are more "woe is us, we can't keep up." owners (thus where he wins), because I bet you there is a good 1/3rd of the owners who would kill to have a luxury tax.

 

[Garthinater]

I'm not convinced Mathews is better than Eichel who has no support on a team that isn't even trying to win. O' Reilly says he is excited to be playing in St Louis, guess why?

Are you being serious? It's not even a debate at this point. Matthews> eichel

 

[darrylsittler27]

Are you being serious? It's not even a debate at this point. Matthews> eichel

Eichel isn't playing with Nylander and he is a game changer. I believe is game is well suited for the playoffs. Time will tell but he doesn't have the supporting staff Mathews has.

 

[stickty111]

Eichel isn't playing with Nylander and he is a game changer. I believe is game is well suited for the playoffs. Time will tell but he doesn't have the supporting staff Mathews has.

Matthews is playing with Hyman and he isnt a game changer. Eichel's game isnt suited for the playoffs. He also plays with 2 top 6 wingers. Its sad people like you turn on our franchise centre after 1 playoffs.

 

[Superstar]

Jack Eichel got a C.H.%

: 13.33 on $76 mil cap ceiling = $10 mil AAV
vs
Connor McDavid got a C.H.%

: 16.67 on a $76 cap ceiling = $12.5 mil AAV

Auston Matthews is the mid point of these 2 comparables (13.33 + 16.67 /2) = C.H.%

: 15.00
&
C.H.%

: 15.00 on $80 mil cap ceiling = $12 mil AAV.

So if you split the difference by taking the average % = 15% (individual cap hit) and on an increasing Cap that works out to 8 years @ $12 mil = $96 mil contract.

Matthews wants to be here, he loves the Leafs...he loves having Tavares here...I think he signs between $10 to $10.5 million AAV, maybe less.

 

[Liminality]

I don't think Matthews will make more than Tavares, which is a great thing.

 

[nuck]

Jack Eichel got a C.H.%

: 13.33 on $76 mil cap ceiling = $10 mil AAV
vs
Connor McDavid got a C.H.%

: 16.67 on a $76 cap ceiling = $12.5 mil AAV

Auston Matthews is the mid point of these 2 comparables (13.33 + 16.67 /2) = C.H.%

: 15.00
&
C.H.%

: 15.00 on $80 mil cap ceiling = $12 mil AAV.

So if you split the difference by taking the average % = 15% (individual cap hit) and on an increasing Cap that works out to 8 years @ $12 mil = $96 mil contract.

But when has any sub 70pt player set a new level? Hes an RFA. He has zero leverage, and just because Pegula thought Eichel was a $10M player, or at least wanted to throw money at him, doesn't make it a hard rule. Eichel is, by any objective means, grossly overpaid. You can use him as a baseline perhaps, but McD won a scoring title in year two, and any player who didn't come close has no right to use him as reference point. AM played part of a year and brought little in the playoffs. He doesn't have the resume to demand UFA numbers. He may well earn a $12M deal going forward, but he isn't close to being a top 5 C yet so do you pay him for a best case scenario? PPG versus actual points, and then look at playoff production. No dis to AM, I love him, but who ever gets the second best salary in the league based on potential?

Having said that, he is worth more than Eichel but his inability to play a full season, and his weak playoff are not bargaining chips for him. In an environment where he gets paid for actual production with bonuses vs ppg or other extrapolations it might be different. Even grossly overpaid guys like Toews and Kopitar had to earn it before they got paid for it. $10.5M I hope.

 

[A1LeafNation]

There is definitely a EDM WIN BUF tax because FAs don’t want to sign there.

 

[cashinstinct]

Yes

 

[weems]

Eichel isn't playing with Nylander and he is a game changer. I believe is game is well suited for the playoffs. Time will tell but he doesn't have the supporting staff Mathews has.

Jack Eichel also see's 3:44 of PP icetime per game which ranks him #5 in the entire NHL.
Auston Matthews see's 2:09 of PP icetime per game which ranks him #204 in the entire NHL.

Not only does Eichel see ALOT more powerplay time but the fact he's on Buffalo's first unit means everytime he gets to start the PP with an offensive zone faceoff while many times Matthews would come onto the ice with the first 1-1:15 expired and the puck having been cleared from the offensive zone. His unit has to go back into our own end, bring the puck back up the ice and complete a succesfull zone entry and thats not always easy thing.

Eichel is in a FAR better spot to pad his point totals compared to Matthews.

 

[frizzer1]

I want to know more about his health.
My biggest concern being his back.

I agree.
He was not the same player after his first injury......and that is a worry, at least for me..
And he even said,after his third injury ,that he wouldn't be 100% for the rest of the season.
Scary.

 

[rent free]

There is definitely a EDM WIN BUF tax because FAs don’t want to sign there.

Sekera, lucic and okposo say otherwise.

There is no such thing as a "tax because FAs don’t want to sign there". If free agents don't want to sign in those three locations, why did the three I mentioned above sign for those teams instead of somewhere else regardless of the money?

 

[A1LeafNation]

Sekera, lucic and okposo say otherwise.

There is no such thing as a "tax because FAs don’t want to sign there". If free agents don't want to sign in those three locations, why did the three I mentioned above sign for those teams instead of somewhere else regardless of the money?

No one is paying them anymore than they got.