Speculation: Does Matthews really deserve 10mil a year?

[rent free]

No one is paying them anymore than they got.

Which means they decided to sign where they did...

 

[Nylanderthal]

Which means they decided to sign where they did...

Because those places overpaid to get them, how dim are you? Or are you really going full interactif on us here? I think I found a new member of my ignore list

 

[Laista]

Leafs -Fans - We Got some of The best players omg we will Contend! Finally!

Also Leafs-Fans - We should bridge all players and give Them less because they should all just be glad till Play for us!

Wake Up!

 

[sxvnert]

10m is the highest I would go. People forget that its his 2nd contract not his UFA contract.

 

[Nithoniniel]

10m is the highest I would go. People forget that its his 2nd contract not his UFA contract.

And since 10M is on the low end of what his comparables are, you'd get rid of Matthews because of a bit of money?

Let's say he won't go lower than 11M. Do you then trade Matthews because he won't take 10M, or do you pay him 11M and replace someone like Brown for a $1M contract?

 

[kb]

And since 10M is on the low end of what his comparables are, you'd get rid of Matthews because of a bit of money?

Let's say he won't go lower than 11M. Do you then trade Matthews because he won't take 10M, or do you pay him 11M and replace someone like Brown for a $1M contract?

Brown out, Johnsson in.

Why does that sound so wrong when said out loud?

 

[Mess]

When all the dust settles on the Matthews contract he will be paid among the top 5 forwards in the NHL, with an inflated price tag that will keep him in the top 5 highest paid for years to come. IMO

Auston Matthews agent knows that should they wait until next summer, that he will break the bank by listening to offersheet proposals coming his way that Leafs will be forced to match.

 

[rent free]

Because those places overpaid to get them, how dim are you? Or are you really going full interactif on us here? I think I found a new member of my ignore list

If they didn't want to sign there, they wouldn't be a part of the team then, regardless of the money. You aren't understanding what I'm saying. You should understand first then post.

 

[thewave]

Jack Eichel got a C.H.%

: 13.33 on $76 mil cap ceiling = $10 mil AAV
vs
Connor McDavid got a C.H.%

: 16.67 on a $76 cap ceiling = $12.5 mil AAV

Auston Matthews is the mid point of these 2 comparables (13.33 + 16.67 /2) = C.H.%

: 15.00
&
C.H.%

: 15.00 on $80 mil cap ceiling = $12 mil AAV.

So if you split the difference by taking the average % = 15% (individual cap hit) and on an increasing Cap that works out to 8 years @ $12 mil = $96 mil contract.

With those injuries as of late and JT, you bridge it. CBA is likely going claw back cap and introduce a luxury tax.

 

[crump]

It’s time to unleash the Matthews. Near the top of the league in even strength goals. If Babcock put him on the first unit PP you would be asking if he’s worth 12 mil. The guy would be pushing 50-60 goals if he got prime time on the PP. time to stop protecting this guy and let him loose.

 

[DanM]

And since 10M is on the low end of what his comparables are, you'd get rid of Matthews because of a bit of money?

Let's say he won't go lower than 11M. Do you then trade Matthews because he won't take 10M, or do you pay him 11M and replace someone like Brown for a $1M contract?

Honestly.... if he won't go lower than 11, I think this says a lot about his character, and I would move him. I mean jesus, what would he want as a UFA if he keeps trending upwards.

But I am also old school, and believe the young players should be earning shit before getting paid lol

 

[Battle Lin]

at this point for the upcoming season, if he scores

90 points, he can ask for 12
80 points, he can ask for 11
70 points, he will get 10

 

[i1]

Second highest goal scorer since entering the league, ahead of both Crosby and Mcdavid in fewer games

11 is fine by me

 

[bobg1]

RFA's should not be getting this much, but it's the way the league is headed.

Drai certainly didn't deserve a contract like the one he signed

 

[Sypher04]

It’s time to unleash the Matthews. Near the top of the league in even strength goals. If Babcock put him on the first unit PP you would be asking if he’s worth 12 mil. The guy would be pushing 50-60 goals if he got prime time on the PP. time to stop protecting this guy and let him loose.

Actually, over the last 2 years, he has been THE top goal scorer in the league at even strength. And it's not especially close either.

NHL.com - Stats

McDavid & Matthew both with 61 goals at even strength in that time. Difference being Matthews missed 20 games

 

[Sypher04]

To further add to my last post:

Top 9 players over the last 2 seasons combined in Even Strength goals are:
Matthews, McDavid, Tarasenko, Kucherov, Rakell, Marchand, Staal, Laine & Lee

Translating their production into goals/60 (even strength only)
1. Matthews - 1.640
2. Marchand - 1.422
3. Laine - 1.384
4. Rakell - 1.380
5. Lee - 1.375
6. Tarasenko - 1.370
7. Kucherov - 1.300
8. Staal - 1.294
9. McDavid - 1.283

There is a bigger difference between Matthews and #2 than there is between #2 and #9.

I actively ignored Grabner at 10 because frankly I don't think his case compares with any of the other top scorers. Although for the sake of transparency, I'll say his g/60 ES would be 1.565

 

[81Leafs50]

YES. Matthews deserves every penny they will pay him.

 

[biotk]

I actively ignored Grabner at 10 because frankly I don't think his case compares with any of the other top scorers. Although for the sake of transparency, I'll say his g/60 ES would be 1.565

A good reason to go with 5v5 instead of ES. Grabner falls significantly when all of his EN goals are removed.

Goals/60 5v5 over the last two years.
1. Matthews 1.58
2. Rackell 1.31
3. Lee 1.30
4. JVR 1.30
5. Laine 1.24
6. Boeser 1.24
7. Malkin 1.22
8. Grabner 1.22
9. Skinner 1.20
10. Tarasenko 1.19

(The gap between Matthews and #2 is as big as the gap between #2 and #22. That is shocking)

 

[Martin Skoula]

A good reason to go with 5v5 instead of ES. Grabner falls significantly when all of his EN goals are removed.

Goals/60 5v5 over the last two years.
1. Matthews 1.58
2. Rackell 1.31
3. Lee 1.30
4. JVR 1.30
5. Laine 1.24
6. Boeser 1.24
7. Malkin 1.22
8. Grabner 1.22
9. Skinner 1.20
10. Tarasenko 1.19

(The gap between Matthews and #2 is as big as the gap between #2 and #22. That is shocking)

It's crazy that a good chunk of that sample size is Matthews playing injured in a way that limited his shooting too. That gap is going to grow next year in all likelihood.

 

[MattySnipes]

And since 10M is on the low end of what his comparables are, you'd get rid of Matthews because of a bit of money?

Let's say he won't go lower than 11M. Do you then trade Matthews because he won't take 10M, or do you pay him 11M and replace someone like Brown for a $1M contract?

Exactly this. You don't nickle and dime your franchise C. If he wants 11 give it to him. Bring on some cheap talent through elc and we're good. Players like Matthews don't come around so often.

 

[Joey Hoser]

10m is the highest I would go. People forget that its his 2nd contract not his UFA contract.

I haven't forgotten that, and I don't know why you think it's relevant. By all measures and comparables, Matthews should be getting 10+ million.

"But it's his 2nd contract" doesn't mean anything.

 

[Duke Silver]

Despite low PP usage, Matthews has a pretty respectable P/60 on the PP over the last two seasons (min. 200 mins):

1. Kucherov - 7.63
2. Stamkos - 7.51
3. Marner - 7.49
4. Rielly - 7.39
5. Hall - 7.38
6. Wheeler - 7.26
7. Malkin - 7.11
8. Kessel - 7.10
9. Hedman - 6.89
10. Pastrnak - 6.72
--------
14. Giroux - 6.60
15. Nylander - 6.59
18. Crosby - 6.44
19. Kadri - 6.33
20. Matthews - 6.29
23. Benn - 6.05
24. JVR - 6.01
47. Spezza - 5.45
49. Tavares - 5.41
68. Draisaitl - 5.04
70. Bozak - 5.02
117. Pietrangelo - 4.33
119. Gardiner - 4.29
171. Berglund - 3.65
173. Marleau - 3.59
174. Komarov - 3.55

Added in some comparables/noteworthy names around where our guys finished.

Also, holy crap Morgan.

 

[Shanty]

Despite low PP usage, Matthews has a pretty respectable P/60 on the PP over the last two seasons (min. 200 mins):

1. Kucherov - 7.63
2. Stamkos - 7.51
3. Marner - 7.49
4. Rielly - 7.39
5. Hall - 7.38
6. Wheeler - 7.26
7. Malkin - 7.11
8. Kessel - 7.10
9. Hedman - 6.89
10. Pastrnak - 6.72
--------
14. Giroux - 6.60
15. Nylander - 6.59
18. Crosby - 6.44
19. Kadri - 6.33
20. Matthews - 6.29
23. Benn - 6.05
24. JVR - 6.01
47. Spezza - 5.45
49. Tavares - 5.41
68. Draisaitl - 5.04
70. Bozak - 5.02
117. Pietrangelo - 4.33
119. Gardiner - 4.29
171. Berglund - 3.65
173. Marleau - 3.59
174. Komarov - 3.55

Added in some comparables/noteworthy names around where our guys finished.

Also, holy crap Morgan.

Not knocking him, as I think he's done a fantastic job, but I'd like to see how many of those PP points are secondary assists from giving the puck to Marner.

Rielly at the high point passes to Marner at the top of the right circle. Marner does the "Marner thing", puck's tipped in. Secondary apple to Rielly.

 

[Nithoniniel]

Not knocking him, as I think he's done a fantastic job, but I'd like to see how many of those PP points are secondary assists from giving the puck to Marner.

Rielly at the high point passes to Marner at the top of the right circle. Marner does the "Marner thing", puck's tipped in. Secondary apple to Rielly.

I did a similar thing a while ago with primary points. It boosted up Willy quite a bit. I'm fairly certain it was while discussing how similar he and Marner had been, and I'm fairly certain he ended up over him. That's the thing with that second PP. It's all Matthews and Nylander. Our top unit is run by Marner, but Rielly, Kadri and JvR also created a lot on that unit. You need multiple threats like that for a PP unit to be really good. I have no idea how Willy and Auston could go a whole season at their torrent pace, especially considering how easy the adjustment was.

 

[Nooodles]

Can someone please explain me how exactly the p/60 works?