Does anyone still think we're a playoff team?

[Summer Rose]

The West is turning out to be very top-heavy this season. The East is slightly more evenly matched. I still don't really care if we make the playoffs or not (and by that I mean I'd have mixed feelings about making as well as mixed feelings about missing so that adds up to pretending to not care), because if we do, we're going nowhere with that playoff spot.

 

[MIGs Dog]

Yotes need someone who can win faceoffs

I think faceoffs are important at certain times of the game, but not sure the stats support better faceoff teams as winning more games.

The best faceoff team (Flyers, 56.2%), have 44 pts.

The worst faceoff team (Capitals, 46.4%) have 59 pts.

Small sample size, but in our last 4 games we have been dominated on the dot winning between 36% to 44%. We lost 2 and won 2.


Here's an interesting stat with greater correlation (for the Coyotes), blocked shots.

The win over Toronto we blocked 30 shots to Leafs 11

Loss to Penguins blocked 17 to Pitts 20. Not a huge difference, but neither was the score as the game went to OT.

Beat SJ blocking 24 to the Sharks 11.

Loss to Calgary blocked 7 to Flames 12.

This stat doesn't seem to apply to all teams. Flames do not block many shots overall, but they don't need to because they score a lot.

I think it's a key part of the Coyote game because we don't score enough. I suppose blocked shots is really just a proxy for good defensive positioning.

 

[Neighborhood Coyote]

I think faceoffs are important at certain times of the game, but not sure the stats support better faceoff teams as winning more games.

The best faceoff team (Flyers, 56.2%), have 44 pts.

The worst faceoff team (Capitals, 46.4%) have 59 pts.

Small sample size, but in our last 4 games we have been dominated on the dot winning between 36% to 44%. We lost 2 and won 2.


Here's an interesting stat with greater correlation (for the Coyotes), blocked shots.

The win over Toronto we blocked 30 shots to Leafs 11

Loss to Penguins blocked 17 to Pitts 20. Not a huge difference, but neither was the score as the game went to OT.

Beat SJ blocking 24 to the Sharks 11.

Loss to Calgary blocked 7 to Flames 12.

This stat doesn't seem to apply to all teams. Flames do not block many shots overall, but they don't need to because they score a lot.

I think it's a key part of the Coyote game because we don't score enough. I suppose blocked shots is really just a proxy for good defensive positioning.

That's an interesting point. I can't deny that the team does better when they actually are able to block incoming shots. You know they are in trouble when they keep missing them ... as you said it shows the positioning is off. Missed blocked shots also lead to even more out of position defense when they have to scramble to get rebounds.

Faceoff data shows that it doesn't have an effect on a macro scale. In those micro situations... maybe. There are other factors that are more important in determining the outcomes. For me, my competitive side likes winning in all facets of the game... Faceoffs, shots, hits, takeaways, fights, goals, everything haha.

 

[Jakey53]

The West is turning out to be very top-heavy this season. The East is slightly more evenly matched. I still don't really care if we make the playoffs or not (and by that I mean I'd have mixed feelings about making as well as mixed feelings about missing so that adds up to pretending to not care), because if we do, we're going nowhere with that playoff spot.

I want to make the playoffs, no if and's and but's. Once in the playoffs anything can happen. The experience alone is worth it and helps to change the culture of the franchise.

 

[Jakey53]

I think faceoffs are important at certain times of the game, but not sure the stats support better faceoff teams as winning more games.

The best faceoff team (Flyers, 56.2%), have 44 pts.

The worst faceoff team (Capitals, 46.4%) have 59 pts.

Small sample size, but in our last 4 games we have been dominated on the dot winning between 36% to 44%. We lost 2 and won 2.


Here's an interesting stat with greater correlation (for the Coyotes), blocked shots.

The win over Toronto we blocked 30 shots to Leafs 11

Loss to Penguins blocked 17 to Pitts 20. Not a huge difference, but neither was the score as the game went to OT.

Beat SJ blocking 24 to the Sharks 11.

Loss to Calgary blocked 7 to Flames 12.

This stat doesn't seem to apply to all teams. Flames do not block many shots overall, but they don't need to because they score a lot.

I think it's a key part of the Coyote game because we don't score enough. I suppose blocked shots is really just a proxy for good defensive positioning.

FO's is only one facet of the game, same as blocking shot. They say if you have a high number of blocked shots means you have less possession time.

 

[rt]

I’ve never seen a compelling study that shows face-offs have an impact on wins, on the macro level. I’ve seen plenty highlighting that there is little or no correlation, there. Of course, on the micro level it could be different. That’s tougher to analyze. It’s also tougher to focus on or plan for as a team. You can’t look at a player and say “well, he might be only 40% on draws but he wins the important ones that influence game outcomes”. I think teams are pretty safe just pretty much ignoring this consideration.

 

[MIGs Dog]

FO's is only one facet of the game, same as blocking shot. They say if you have a high number of blocked shots means you have less possession time.

Also could mean you have more SOGs. Both teams could have equal shot attempts.

I think what the blocked shot stat means for the Coyotes is that we have to play well defensively to win. We're are not going to win consistently with an overwhelming offense.

 

[Lawson of Anarchy]

I definitely do not want to trade away prospects/picks for a rent-a-body or aging mediocre vet that might get us into the playoffs.

 

[GiveAFlyingPuck]

If we get into the playoffs, the team will most likely be pretty worn out. After the break, there's only 5 times where the team gets a 2 day break. 14 games in Feb and 15 games in March. 4 back to backs

 

[MIGs Dog]

If we get into the playoffs, the team will most likely be pretty worn out. After the break, there's only 5 times where the team gets a 2 day break. 14 games in Feb and 15 games in March. 4 back to backs

If we get Richy, Dvo, Grabs, and Demers back they will be well rested.

 

[azcanuck]

We're a scrappy team that's hanging in there. But no playoffs this year.

 

[Llewzaher]

We're a scrappy team that's hanging in there. But no playoffs this year.

We really are hanging in there... how much better do we do when Rich, Dvo Grabs and Demers get back?

Is Demers an upgrade on who we have now ? I remember alot of us weren't too happy with him .

I wonder how Dvo would be , not having played this year. Who would we scratch if those 4 came back? I think Garland should stay . I am guessing Kempe , Arch , Ost .. who else?

I hope we get Grabs and Richy back soon ... When they were in the line up .. I almost was wishing for a penalty so we could score

 

[Imaravencawcaw]

I’ve never seen a compelling study that shows face-offs have an impact on wins, on the macro level. I’ve seen plenty highlighting that there is little or no correlation, there. Of course, on the micro level it could be different. That’s tougher to analyze. It’s also tougher to focus on or plan for as a team. You can’t look at a player and say “well, he might be only 40% on draws but he wins the important ones that influence game outcomes”. I think teams are pretty safe just pretty much ignoring this consideration.

This is certainly micro level, but really the only time face-offs have any drastic difference on the outcome of play is during a power-play. Your post reminded me of this article on the best penalty kills in the NHL through the 1st quarter: Dellow: The league’s best (and worst) penalty kills through the first quarter (Paywall)

The author categorized PK shifts based on starting with FO wins, FO losses, on the fly changes, and everything else. Essentially the shift data boils down to this:
Shift starts with FO loss = ~150 shots/60 min and ~11 goals/60 min
Shift starts with FO win = ~85 shots/60 min and ~5.8 goals/60 min

Almost double the production allowed when you lose the PK face-off since there's such a small likelihood of getting the puck back until the other team shoots it. It also helps explains the Coyotes PK prowess since Richardson wins so many face-offs, and why our PP is mostly terrible since Stepan/Gally/Schmaltz all suck in the dot. It's also probably why Tyson Nash sounds like he dies a little on the inside every time the Coyotes lose a PP FO.

Since very small amounts of game time actually occur 5v4 it's probably why FO% isn't a big factor overall in wins, losses, and points.

 

[cobra427]

We're a scrappy team that's hanging in there. But no playoffs this year.

Our play lately has been pretty solid against some good teams. Its always hard to tell how much of it is us playing well, us getting above average goal tending, or the other team taking us lightly or not playing well. I am starting to think we are playing pretty well and that is why we are winning more so then the other team playing poorly. With our recent success and getting more toward playoff time, we won't sneak up on anyone and won't be taken lightly now. The next 10 games or so will be interesting.

Our top pair of OEL/Hammer has been solid and our forecheck has been relentless, both are contributing to our success. Kuemper has been great as well, but I don't feel like he is carrying us.

 

[Bonsai Tree]

Even this year, it would be more important to get into the playoffs than aim for a higher draft pick. A young team needs a taste of success. A 4 and out in the playoffs would set this team up with a hunger to go back to the playoffs and do better the following year.

 

[azcanuck]

I still think we will finish in the bottom 5 of the overall standings.

 

[GiveAFlyingPuck]

Tuesday worked out for us. We won Edmonton lost. Need the away teams to come through again.

Standings as of 22 Jan 2019

Games played	Team	Points
49	MIN	53	Cen3
49	DAL	52	WC1
49	COL	52	WC2
50	VAN	52
50	ANA	51
49	ARI	50
50	EDM	49
48	STL	47

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Relevant teams schedule and who I want to win in BOLD

Monday 21 Jan:
NSH - COL
MIN - VGK
STL - LAK

Tuesday 22 Jan:
ARI- OTT
DET - EDM

Wednesday 23 Jan:
MIN - COL
STL - ANA
CAR - VAN (This really needs to played in The Motor City)
ARI - MTL

If it were to play out like this, the Coyotes would be at 52 points along with DAL, COL and VAN; missing WC2 position due to goals for/against differential at the All-Star break/bye week.

Lose both of our games and we could be 6 points back of WC2. Let's not think of that.

 

[Dirty Old Man]

(from Jan. 10)
But we have a chance.

Win tonight and our chances go up to 11.4%.

We're now at 30% Western Conference Playoff Chances - Sports Club Stats

 

[Jamieh]

I think the OEL injury might be enough to push us over the top and into a playoff spot. We seem to play better the worse the roster gets so I think this will be enough.

 

[ParisSaintGermain]

Tough thing with the standings so tight for the last wild card spot is that you can be 2 points from it, have a 8-2, 10 games stretch and still be 2 points from it. I am very impressed by the resilience of this team, I seriously thought we would be dead last with all the injuries, and whilst I still think we will be bottom 5, I won't be surprised if we were to play meaningful games in March.

 

[rt]

We're now at 30% Western Conference Playoff Chances - Sports Club Stats

And just like that, it’s 25%.

 

[Name Nameless]

And just like that, it’s 25%.

Yeah, that failed hold by Goligoski was expensive.

 

[Imaravencawcaw]

Any playoff predictor that is changing by 5% when a team loses a non conference road game with 30+ games left in the season is completely useless. A room full of developmentally disabled chimpanzees could design a better algorithm than whatever that website is using.

 

[GiveAFlyingPuck]

We have a couple of games against the Stars our first week back from the break. Winning those in regulation would help our playoff chances.

 

[rt]

Any playoff predictor that is changing by 5% when a team loses a non conference road game with 30+ games left in the season is completely useless. A room full of developmentally disabled chimpanzees could design a better algorithm than whatever that website is using.

Ehhh...what all of the other teams did is factored in, too...