Does anyone still think we're a playoff team?

[GiveAFlyingPuck]

We'd need a few plane crashes to make the playoffs.

 

[SniperHF]

It still looks like 88 points will make the playoffs in the west.

I think this is a bit lower than years past, but nce teams sell off assets the bad teams get worse and the good teams get better. So the point disparity shifts as competitive balance decreases.

In 16/17 for example at this exact same time the point projection was 88 but it took 94 by the end.

Last season though it was higher at this time @ 99 points and it ended up only taking 95.

So it could go either way I suppose, but given how it usually trends (95 thereabouts) I'd bet on it taking a bit more than 88.

 

[MIGs Dog]

I think this is a bit lower than years past, but nce teams sell off assets the bad teams get worse and the good teams get better. So the point disparity shifts as competitive balance decreases.

In 16/17 for example at this exact same time the point projection was 88 but it took 94 by the end.

Last season though it was higher at this time @ 99 points and it ended up only taking 95.

So it could go either way I suppose, but given how it usually trends (95 thereabouts) I'd bet on it taking a bit more than 88.

Yep. Capture 60% of remaining pts gets us to 88, but if the 2 current wildcard teams also play at a .600 pace they'll end up with 92.

We need to play well, and a whole bunch of teams to play less well.

The odds are not in our favor.

 

[SniperHF]

Yep. Capture 60% of remaining pts gets us to 88, but if the 2 current wildcard teams also play at a .600 pace they'll end up with 92.

We need to play well, and a whole bunch of teams to play less well.

The odds are not in our favor.

Before the season started I guessed 81 points. We're currently on pace for 80
Though I was completely wrong on the path to get there. I figured the defense would be heart attack inducing again but it turns out we're a boring defensive team with no offense

One thing though that I think indicates the quality improvement is ROWs. Points are a little fungible with all the OT games other teams play (we don't play many this year)

This season we're at a .413 ROW %
Last season it was .329

.413 if that holds (or improves) will get us in the mid 30's for regulation wins. That's bubble team which I think was a fair goal for the squad to start the season. Most teams that miss by 2-6 points have ROWs in the mid 30s.

 

[MIGs Dog]

It's interesting how large the spread is between the haves and the have nots in the west. Sure, you expect those in a playoff spot to have a positive goal differential, but there is a big gap in goal dif between the top 6 and everyone else. Not sure if it means anything, other the fact we need to jump ahead of many subpar teams to earn a wildcard.

 

[SniperHF]

BTW I Think the answer is whatever our asses think, the team seems to think they can do it.

 

[cobra427]

Hard to say if we make it, still a long shot, but anything can happen. Right now the Canucks would be in, nobody would have predicted that.

 

[Jagged Ice]

It won't be Edmonton.

 

[Mosby]

I think these players deserve for Chayka to be a buyer. Nothing serious, just find another Panik (hey, he can get 20 goals...).

 

[Murf]

I think these players deserve for Chayka to be a buyer. Nothing serious, just find another Panik (hey, he can get 20 goals...).

Chayka already did that. He’s injured for the rest of the season.

 

[FinnishCoyote]

I think that without huge injuries we would be at wild card spot easily...

 

[MIGs Dog]

I think these players deserve for Chayka to be a buyer. Nothing serious, just find another Panik (hey, he can get 20 goals...).

The other wildcard is who might return from IR. We are exactly 5 weeks from the trade deadline. What if Richy, Dvo, and Grabs have either returned or are very close to returning? That will certainly change GMJCs calculus. What would that do to our lineup? I'm assuming Garland isn't going back to the Old Pueblo.

 

[jmichael7753]

Would love to see Chayka go after Kevin Hayes. Start with a conditional second rounder (becomes a first if he resigns?) and someone in Tucson.

 

[rt]

Would love to see Chayka go after Kevin Hayes. Start with a conditional second rounder (becomes a first if he resigns?) and someone in Tucson.

That someone would have to be Merkley at least. I’m sure they’d want even more than that. I’m sure Colorado will happily offer their own first for him without any conditions attached.

 

[rt]

The other wildcard is who might return from IR. We are exactly 5 weeks from the trade deadline. What if Richy, Dvo, and Grabs have either returned or are very close to returning? That will certainly change GMJCs calculus. What would that do to our lineup? I'm assuming Garland isn't going back to the Old Pueblo.

I’d rather see Kempe go down than Garland. Archibald can sit.

 

[YotesFan47]

With the injuries and where our roster is today, I'd rather just be quiet. Play the rest of the year out and see where we land. We lack some high end talent which we wont be getting in trade and we've basically been watching our team play their depth players because we have had 4+ injuries the entire season. We have taken something like 13 dmen in the last 3 drafts, once some of those guys begin forcing themselves into our lineup we can move some for forward help.

From what I can tell, JC is going with the Nashville strategy. Get a goalie and blue line, start making the playoffs to fund getting forwards, become a contender. At face value we are 10 years behind Nashville, sucks for us but I think in the long haul we will be happy with the roster. We have 3 years down of drafting, we have 3 years of development for some, others still need 2+ years. Earlier in the year I think I said we were still 1 year away, I have come to amend that view and think we still have 2+ years left before we really see improvement.

Now a huge FA signing or trade could change that but at this point I think we need to exercise patience still, as painful as it has been.

 

[Grimes]

I have no doubt in my mind that we could have sneaked into a WC spot with a healthy roster. Team has been playing with shades of the 2009-2012 rosters, with their us against the world mentality.

I think we should stay put however and be gifted a higher pick for our bad luck this year and go all in for next season.

We could pick up Spooner and call it a day if we didn't have 50 contracts... already

 

[_Del_]

Spooner is more of the same, small, one-dimensional perimeter player, and carries a $3M+ hit next year. We're not going anywhere this year. Little need next year for that price.
Rattie would at least be a righthand shot RFA on an extended tryout the rest of the season.

 

[Name Nameless]

I have no doubt in my mind that we could have sneaked into a WC spot with a healthy roster. Team has been playing with shades of the 2009-2012 rosters, with their us against the world mentality.

I think we should stay put however and be gifted a higher pick for our bad luck this year and go all in for next season.

We could pick up Spooner and call it a day if we didn't have 50 contracts... already

Chayka should make friends with, say, Florida... they've only got 43 contracts.

How do they do that, no real amount of prospects in the A?

Weird. But he should.

 

[GiveAFlyingPuck]

Standings as of 22 Jan 2019

Games played	Team	Points
49	MIN	53	Cen3
49	DAL	52	WC1
49	COL	52	WC2
50	VAN	52
50	ANA	51
49	ARI	50
50	EDM	49
48	STL	47

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Relevant teams schedule and who I want to win in BOLD

Monday 21 Jan:
NSH - COL
MIN - VGK
STL - LAK

Tuesday 22 Jan:
ARI- OTT
DET - EDM

Wednesday 23 Jan:
MIN - COL
STL - ANA
CAR - VAN (This really needs to played in The Motor City)
ARI - MTL

If it were to play out like this, the Coyotes would be at 52 points along with DAL, COL and VAN; missing WC2 position due to goals for/against differential at the All-Star break/bye week.

Lose both of our games and we could be 6 points back of WC2. Let's not think of that.

 

[Dirty Old Man]

^yeah, I noticed only 4 (ed.) games in the 8 days after that ("the bye week") involving WC teams - 3 for WPG and 1 for DAL, iirc...whatever will we discuss?

 

[SniperHF]

^yeah, I noticed only 3 games in the 8 days after that ("the bye week") involving WC teams - 3 for WPG and 1 for DAL, iirc...whatever will we discuss?

Kyle Turris probably.

 

[jdfitz12]

Yotes need someone who can win faceoffs

 

[GiveAFlyingPuck]

We can't get in the WC2 for the break, thanks VGK. Updated the standings as of Tuesday AM.

Standings as of 21 Jan 2019

Games played	Team	Points
49	MIN	53	Cen3
49	DAL	52	WC1
49	COL	52	WC2
50	VAN	52
50	ANA	51
49	EDM	49
48	ARI	48
48	STL	47

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Relevant teams schedule and who I want to win in BOLD

Monday 21 Jan:
NSH - COL
MIN - VGK
STL - LAK

Tuesday 22 Jan:
ARI- OTT
DET - EDM

Wednesday 23 Jan:
MIN - COL
STL - ANA
CAR - VAN (This really needs to played in The Motor City)
ARI - MTL

If it were to play out like this, the Coyotes would be at 52 points along with DAL, COL and VAN; missing WC2 position due to goals for/against differential at the All-Star break/bye week.

Lose both of our games and we could be 6 points back of WC2. Let's not think of that.

 

[Plub]

It's actually sad that we would probably be a playoff team if we were healthy throughout the season. Some really weak teams this year.