Does Anyone Else Think Ottawa Might Have a Good Season?

[swiftwin]

On paper people underestimated the skill of players like Marchessault, Theodore, and Karlsson. Not to mention having one of the best head coaches in the NHL.

People are dramatically underestimating the skill of players like Duchene and Stone. They are infinitely better players than Hoffman. They are legitimate top end 1st line players.

The Senators are the same team they were last year, except they lost their franchise dman and best goal scorer. And no offence to Boucher, but he's no Gerard Gallant. Now, that doesn't mean there isn't a slim chance that they catch lightning in a bottle (like the occasional team does) but this is a true scrap heap of a team to begin with so the odds are incredibly long. With Vegas you had a team that was underestimated and is realistically already bubble team status as a base skill level, where we also saw some players have career years.

So what? Last year was a shit show on many levels due to off ice issues, the drama was on a level I've never seen in the NHL. On top of that, the players got complacent because not a single player was pending UFA, and not a single rookie or AHLer made the team out of camp. The team was set in stone from the start. Everything just went downhill from there.

This year, they have a forward core that is as good, if not better than 2016-17 (a team that made the playoffs very comfortably despite a ton of injuries). But the D is quite worse. They'll need a solid defensive system to cover up that deficiency. Boucher is the guy to do that. They're a bubble team. 85-90pt range, with a small shot at making the playoffs.

 

[SmellOfVictory]

People are dramatically underestimating the skill of players like Duchene and Stone. They are infinitely better players than Hoffman. They are legitimate top end 1st line players.

Stone is great, and he was great last year as well so I'm not sure what more he could personally to do to boost this team into a respectable position. Duchene is, I don't know, pretty good? I guess you could argue he's a low end first line C, but he hasn't done anything outstanding since 2014 and the Avs ended up being much better once he was traded. Outside of those two, who's going to carry the load?

VGK got a wealth of good supporting players in the expansion draft; who are the comparables for Ottawa? I don't want to pile on, but the comparison to VGK is not apt in the slightest. Fleury is a better goalie than Anderson; Haula is a better player than Pageau; literally everyone on the Knights is better than Bobby Ryan, Mikael Boedker and Cody Ceci. Neal is better than Gaborik. The only way Ottawa could have a season half as good as Vegas' inaugural season is if the rookies and Chabot absolutely blow things out of the water.

 

[Artorius Horus T]

Forwards career bests:

All of them:

Marian Gaborik
pro: 42g+44a=86pts

Bobby Ryan
pro: 37g+38a=75pts
juniors: 44g+60a=104pts

Matt Duchene
pro: 23g+50a=73pts
juniors: 45g+60a=105pts

Mark Stone
pro: 26g+42a=68pts
juniors: 43g+86a=129pts

Clarke MacArthur
pro: 21g+41a=62pts
junior: 43g+50a=93pts

Mikkel Bödker
pro: 19g+32a=51pts
junior: 38g+70a=108pts

Jean-Gabriel Pageau
pro: 19g+24a=43pts
junior: 45g+63a=108pts

Chris Tierney
pro: 17g+25a=42pts
junior: 46g+60a=106pts

Ryan Dzingel
pro: 23g+18a=41pts

Magnus Pääjärvi
pro: 15g+19a=34pts

Tom Pyatt
pro: 11g+14a=25pts
junior: 46g+43a=89pts

Tkachuk,Brown,White

Healthy ones

Bobby Ryan
pro: 37g+38a=75pts
juniors: 44g+60a=104pts

Matt Duchene
pro: 23g+50a=73pts
juniors: 45g+60a=105pts

Mark Stone
pro: 26g+42a=68pts
juniors: 43g+86a=129pts

Mikkel Bödker
pro: 19g+32a=51pts
junior: 38g+70a=108pts

Chris Tierney
pro: 17g+25a=42pts
junior: 46g+60a=106pts

Ryan Dzingel
pro: 23g+18a=41pts

Magnus Pääjärvi
pro: 15g+19a=34pts

Tom Pyatt
pro: 11g+14a=25pts
junior: 46g+43a=89pts

Tkachuk,Brown,White

Potential to score goals, a fair amount actually, but their defense and goaltending are sub par, medium AHL level.
For the latter reason, they are looking at last place in the NHL.

 

[swiftwin]

Stone is great, and he was great last year as well so I'm not sure what more he could personally to do to boost this team into a respectable position. Duchene is, I don't know, pretty good? I guess you could argue he's a low end first line C, but he hasn't done anything outstanding since 2014 and the Avs ended up being much better once he was traded. Outside of those two, who's going to carry the load?

VGK got a wealth of good supporting players in the expansion draft; who are the comparables for Ottawa? I don't want to pile on, but the comparison to VGK is not apt in the slightest. Fleury is a better goalie than Anderson; Haula is a better player than Pageau; literally everyone on the Knights is better than Bobby Ryan, Mikael Boedker and Cody Ceci. Neal is better than Gaborik. The only way Ottawa could have a season half as good as Vegas' inaugural season is if the rookies and Chabot absolutely blow things out of the water.

This is where I lost you. Stone was hurt half the season, Ryan was hurt half the season (Ryan was a beast in the playoffs 15 months ago), Duchene joined the team mid-season. Gaborik and Pageau are LTIR.

Either way, I'm not claiming they're at good at the Knights. I'm just saying that the OP is right, they are getting unfairly poo-poo'd on because of the circus act in the front office. There are some good pieces there (ie. Stone, Duchene), some good rising talent (Chabot, Dzingel), and some good rookies (Tkachuk, Formenton). Using the Sens last season as a baseline for judging this season is a bad idea just because of the reality-TV level drama that happened last season, among other things.

 

[Artorius Horus T]

I'm thinking there will be losses where they concede double digit numbers this season.

 

[Harvey Birdman]

A lot of people are looking for a new Cinderella story after the events of last year, and yes no one predicted truly in their heart of hearts Vegas. But Ottawa will be a basement team, stranger things have happened, and last season proves such. But betting on that to coin a phrase “feel good come from no expectation” story odds are won’t happen twice. It’s safer to bet Ottawa will be in the lottery area, and loose the pick.

 

[mccabe2424]

12th or 13th in the East

 

[Erik Alfredsson]

On paper we should be god awful and it certainly won't surprise me if it ends up that way, but I get the feeling we're not going to be as bad as everyone thinks but I don't see us making the playoffs. I see us finishing in the 7th-12th last in the league area.

 

[Raymoondo]

Do Sens fans want the team to be a near-playoff team or come last?

 

[SmellOfVictory]

Do Sens fans want the team to be a near-playoff team or come last?

I imagine they'd rather a near playoff team since Colorado owns their 1st round pick this year.

 

[Jeremy Hronek]

I think any shot of that went away with management waiving one of the most popular locker room guys/their 2nd line C, just to try and save money.

**** like that is just demoralizing.

He had 5 goals!

 

[Wallet Inspector]

Do Sens fans want the team to be a near-playoff team or come last?

This year?Near playoffs. Next year?Come last to increase draft lotto odds.

 

[Avsboy]

via Imgflip Meme Generator

Edit: Point was that even Ed Jovanovski wouldn't save that d-corps. But just realized that this thread was started by a poster named Ed Jovanovski!

 

[Mattavarner]

Hi Eugene, nice try

 

[8816 others]

Ottawa Golden Knights. Book it.

 

[glucker]

He had 5 goals!

Oh he sucks, don’t get me wrong.

But relative to the rest of the roster... well, he’s practicing as the 2nd line C.

If it was performance-driven, he would have been sent down. But that would have likely cost Melnyk more, so he’s back on roster.

 

[WADEugottaBELAKthat]

Will the Sens be a lotto team or not? Perhaps in a serendipitous twist of fate it all comes down to Matt Duchene´s play - the guy that was traded for the pick that was sent away. If we see a motivated Mighty Matt Duchene, I could see the Sens squeeking in the playoffs, or at worst having a 1-3.3% chance giving away Hughes. If we see a pouty Meek Matt Duchene, they are definitely out, and they might have given away an 18.5% chance at Hughes.

All the Sens fans I know personally are good people. I hope this season turns out OK for them.

 

[Dicky113]

I’m excited, the fans are excited, the sponsors are excited, gritty is excited.

#we’re a team

 

[Canada4Gold]

I think they've have s very surprising season, miss the playoffs by a tiebreaker, and then win the lottery and the Avs pick 1st overall anyway.

 

[izzy]

really anything can happen in this leagur

 

[EON]

I doubt it, their defense is absolutely terrible after swapping Karlsson for DeMelo.

 

[Eltuna]

Before the Karlsson trade I would have agreed with this as Karlsson has Hart trophy potential and is primed for an incredible year in my opinion. After the trade though I think they’re probably going to be pretty bad, the defence is just not good. There’s a strong argument that the defence doesn’t have a single top 3 dman and only two guys could pass as number 4’s. If you followed the signs impartially Karlsson being traded was always the logical end to this offseason but I always assumed the Sens would get a serviceable dman back as part of the return like a Theodore/Barrie kind of guy, since that didn’t happen the defence is just not good enough for anything but the basement. I mean Phaneufs retention is currently the second most expensive dman on the team.

You could make the argument the Senators are below average in every single position. Goaltending and defence are obviously quite poor but the forwards aren’t really great either. For centers Duchene has not broken 60 points in the last 4 seasons, Pageau is out for months, Smith just cleared waivers (albeit mainly due to salary), Brown has not looked impressive at all this preseason, and Tierney is a textbook 3C. The wing is where the team looks the best but as we all know that’s probably the least important part to a team and even then they’re just okay not phenomenal. Stone is a legitimate top line winger (maybe their only true top line player depending on how you view Duchene), Tkachuk should have a pretty good rookie season, Formenton looks really good, Dzingel offers good secondary scoring and White could have a good year.

Of course the possibility of a Duchene/Stone/Dzingel trade is also very real depending on if they want to re-sign or not. Teams can always surprise but I think the Senators are a safe bet for a poor year. Even during their conference finals year the team had a negative goal differential during the year (only team in the playoffs to do so) and that team has since lost Turris, Karlsson, Phaneuf, Brassard, Hoffman, Methot, and had Anderson/Ryan regress big time.

 

[Nithoniniel]

Talent-wise, they are on of the worst teams in recent years right now. If they trade Stone, they definitely are. It also depends on whether they will fill the lineup with placeholders for a year or two, or start to insert some actual talent. It looks like the latter, which might mean they aren't quite that bad off.

With that said, any projections on the team level are so imprecise that there's an off-chance that even a team like Ottawa puts up a surprisingly good season.

 

[Sensung]

I think any shot of that went away with management waiving one of the most popular locker room guys/their 2nd line C, just to try and save money.

**** like that is just demoralizing.

Less demoralizing than assembling a team that is so weak at C that AHL level plug Smith is your 2nd line C?

The team will trade Stone, Duchene and Dzingel before the TDL and will finish dead last in the NHL.

IF new ownership comes in prior to the TDL and re-signs the UFA's, then they are a bottom 10 team.

 

[Hockey Crazy]

You're excited, which makes me excited, which makes our sponsors excited.