Speculation: Does Alex Nylander make the team out of camp?

[AmericanDream]

I guess the question is: Can Perlini effectively play the 4th line role if that is what is asked of him? KM has a point when he assumes that Perlini may be shopped. He has just signed a 1-yr, friendly contract that could serve to entice other teams to take a look. On the other hand that same contract can give him the chance to prove to Chicago that he belongs. Personally, I'd like to see him have a strong camp especially offensively and see the Cat-Strome-Perlini line re-united for a stint. If the trio doesn't gel I think Perlini may be the odd man out. One thing certain in my mind. Hawks have a glut of forwards and not all can play in the top 9, nor can all play the gritty role of a 4th liner. I expect at least one trade before Christmas.

yep, guys like Perlini can be moved easily - like Duclair who kept getting NHL teams to bring him in, speed blinds people at times. Perlini when on is a legit high end sniper and can really motor around out there, there will likely always be a GM thinking they can get that untapped consistent play out of him for a home run flyer..he is cheap, young and as far as I know no attitude issues..but when not on he cannot be relied upon to play the 4th line for us which makes him roster spot here very questionable with what else we have IF we want both Nylander and Dach up here..

 

[RememberTheRoar]

I guess the question is: Can Perlini effectively play the 4th line role if that is what is asked of him? KM has a point when he assumes that Perlini may be shopped. He has just signed a 1-yr, friendly contract that could serve to entice other teams to take a look. On the other hand that same contract can give him the chance to prove to Chicago that he belongs. Personally, I'd like to see him have a strong camp especially offensively and see the Cat-Strome-Perlini line re-united for a stint. If the trio doesn't gel I think Perlini may be the odd man out. One thing certain in my mind. Hawks have a glut of forwards and not all can play in the top 9, nor can all play the gritty role of a 4th liner. I expect at least one trade before Christmas.

I know people hate the idea of Shaw playing lower in the lineup, but your points are part of the reason it does make sense.

 

[b1e9a8r5s]

I've always assumed yes he does and I'll stick with it. But that is solely based on what they traded for him and not his or any other players actual abilities.

 

[No Fun Shogun]

I mean... maybe? But we're talking about a guy that couldn't stay on Buffalo's roster, so... even if he does, I'm not expecting much.

 

[BobbyJet]

I know people hate the idea of Shaw playing lower in the lineup, but your points are part of the reason it does make sense.

Yeah, Hawks fans need to remember that Shaw had a career year offensively last season. It remains to be seen if that was a one-off. I do think however that JC has the opportunity to play Shaw up and down the line-up as he sees fit - his versatility is a big asset and his fearless hard work can be contagious.
I think the line-blender type coaching style we saw from Q will continue under JC.

 

[Rick C137]

I mean... maybe? But we're talking about a guy that couldn't stay on Buffalo's roster, so... even if he does, I'm not expecting much.

I really don’t think this is a fair rationale at all. You could say the same thing about Strome who was only getting fourth line minutes in AZ.

“If Strome wasn’t doing enough to not play in the fourth line in AZ, I’m not expecting much out of him here”

Sometimes talented guys fall out of favor in an organization for various reasons. Some teams are really bad at developing players. Some teams are just flat out bad at evaluating talent. There’s a multitude of scenarios (that fans aren’t privy to) that could have been what played out so it’s just kinda unfair to put it in a box like that until we know what we have. Give it a fair chance before you make up your mind. Even talented players sometimes need the right opportunity.

 

[No Fun Shogun]

Sure, but Strome is the exception, not the rule. Change of scenery trades usually don't work out.

Plus, Strome was a guy that wasn't fitting in a system but still staying in the NHL whereas Nylander was a guy that wasn't sticking in the NHL. Lack of motivation on his part or not, there's a world of difference there unless the situation really is Buffalo screwing up (a very real possibility given their track record).

And I'm not presupposing anything. I hope he is the next surprise gem for us, but I'm not raising my expectations up in the slightest.

 

[AmericanDream]

Sure, but Strome is the exception, not the rule. Change of scenery trades usually don't work out.

Plus, Strome was a guy that wasn't fitting in a system but still staying in the NHL whereas Nylander was a guy that wasn't sticking in the NHL. Lack of motivation on his part or not, there's a world of difference there unless the situation really is Buffalo really screwing up (a very real possibility).

And I'm not presupposing anything. I hope he is the next surprise gem for us, but I'm not raising my expectations up in the slightest.

that has been my fear with this trade is that Bowman and Kelley think lightning striked once with Strome so it will again with Nylander..maybe will isn't the right word, hopefully they are a bit more reserved and are not banking on a Strome breakout but something positive if put in the right situation. kid has skill, no damn doubt about it - hope it works out because if it does this team has one of the deepest top 9 forward groups in the league.

 

[hawksfan50]

Given the proce they paid the Nswer is ...yes ...he will get a spit in the top 9 on a wing...since he can play both wings
,it would be very disappointing thing if he could not take either the 1LW or 2RW spot (assuming they keep T and K as 1st line duo and D-Cat Nd Strome as 2nd line duo..Yes..IF he fails to be either 1LW or 2RW they still...given the price paid to get him,would be given either 3RW or 3LW spot...that would by necessity mean either Saad or Shaw would play as a wing on the top 2 lines instead unless Shaw is 3C..

Kubalik would be either 1LW or 2RW in any case ...


As I see it Kubalik best would fit 1LW with T and K...and Nylander therefore is probably the 2RW ..

However if using him as 2 RW proves disastrous with the obvious defensive lacking of D-Cat and Strome,then I can see Saad getting the 2RW role or Shaw getting it..

In such case,Nylander would be either 3LW or 3RW and either Shaw or Saad is the other winger on line 3 depending on which one dod not replace Nylander at 2RW.

Whoever is at 2RW Must pro ide defensive support for S-Cat and Strome because as we know they are not great once in their own d-zone..this aspect does not really identify with Nylander as a guy to cover for and bail them out on the d-zone..But IF he mitigates that via chemistry with D-Cat Nd Strome to the degree that the offensive production of the line in 5x5 is much more than offsetting any defensive shortcomings of the line...Then Nylander would remain as 2RW.

If however the 2 d line with Nylander as 2RW puts up grossly negative +/_ stats then there is no choice..he would be down-lined to line 3 where it is hoped that either Saad or Shaw or both (if Shaw is 3C( or whoever is 3C can mitigate for Nylander's own defensive shortcoming gs,such that overall line 3 is at minimum still around Even in +/- or hopefully respectably positive in this stat.


I do not see Dach at 3C for 2 reasons...1.advantage of sliding his ELC while he works on improving g certain areas back in juniors rather than learno g on the job in the NHL at 18...and 2. Because faceoffs are a weak point for Dach and they will require somebody better on draws to help bail out the 3rd line in the d-zone..especially if Nylander is on the 3rd line.

Thus maybe I could see Dach as 3C if and only if Nylander can secure the 2RW role..but while that too poses d-zone possession of the faceoff issues since Strome is not great on draws for that line either,the mitigating offensive potential in the o-zone of a D-Cat Strome Nylander trio may be so good that it makes up for and surpasses the line's weak points in their d-zone.
So there is z lit to digest here..


Now.IF Nylander changes his game to a lit more effort instead of just finesse offense ...such that he shows a lot more defensive enthusiasm to check,then that automatically secures him a line 2 spot .

Since we do not know for sure if Nylander's offense can mitigate for upto this point apparent lack of enthusiasm for defe sive checking ,it remains a to be seen if JC can trust him with an already not great I the d-zone duo of D-Cat and Strome. BUT we shall see.
Kubalik fits 1LW better because he looks to be at least an average defending winger Nd he can snipe so Kabe setting h him up for 1 timers should work ...no problems.

Line 4 could be z vonstantvrotation among Caggiula Smith Carpenter and Perlini


The odd man out appears to be Sikura=no room at the inn in the top 9 and he is not suited to be a 4th liner. Probably gets traded.

ALSO Wedin =no room at the inn for even 4th line unless they trade Perlini and he goes into the 4 player 4th line rotation.
I can see a line of Saad Dach Shaw..as line 3 ..but that presumes Nylander is 2RW.
They paid so so much giving up HJ to get Nylander that Stan cannot afford Ny humiliation of Nylander not making the team 2RW or 3LW or 3RW to secure a top 9 spot.

He would nerd to be so terrible that it becomes obvious Stan made a horrible mistake and that they would send him to Rockford ...but the degree of horridness to go to that length to not play him would need to be so obvious that it gives the Hawks no choice.

So is Nylander that bad?It would have to be bad as of epic proportion...sort of lije Seabrook..but then they are stuck with that mistake.
Point is...hardxenough to win with 1 liability as bad as Seabrook has become.. we cannot afford to live with 2 epicalky bad shift destroyers.So if Nylander is that much of a liability with no mitigating offe se to offset it..he gonna be gone.
Yet I doubt they deter.i acthar in pre-season.Stan will not like to look stupid in that deal ..so Nylander probably gets half a season to prove himself...by then it might be too late for Hawksbplayoff chances if the twin anchors of Nylander and Seabrook have sunk the ship already by mid-season.

It is hard to imagine Nylander on a teM like the Hawks could be so bad..he shouldbinstead thrive .But if he somehow blows his opportunity. Tgey will not keep him in the show for a whoke season.

So the challenge for hom is...he gets some rope..and hopefully he does not hang himself.

Consider Kane at 1TW is not the most enthusiastic defender ..but at least he more than makes up for it with his offense...

Even if Mylander also shows the same lack of enthusiasm for checking assignments that Kane does,he too must mitigate his defensive shortcomings to a similar degree of compensating with offensive contribution.
If he cannot do this ...he should then be sent packing and Stan will just need to admit a huge mistake.

 

[plasmonresonance]

Why do you think both won’t make it?

I think there's really only one spot in the top 9 available and don't see either Perlini or Nylander as a 4th line type, especially give the other options for the 4th. So one of them is top 9, the other doesn't make it.

 

[RememberTheRoar]

What if the Hawks just scrapped the idea of traditional line roles and ice time?

Four lines capable of playing anytime and any place with maybe the DeBrincat line being the most sheltered. All lines get offensive zone starts and relatively even ice time.

Caggiula-Toews-Kane
DeBrincat-Strome-Perlini
Nylander-Kampf/Smith-Saad
Shaw-Dach-Kubalik

 

[b1e9a8r5s]

What if the Hawks just scrapped the idea of traditional line roles and ice time?

Four lines capable of playing anytime and any place with maybe the DeBrincat line being the most sheltered. All lines get offensive zone starts and relatively even ice time.

Caggiula-Toews-Kane
DeBrincat-Strome-Perlini
Nylander-Kampf/Smith-Saad
Shaw-Dach-Kubalik

I just don't see how giving the Dach line (if he makes it) relatively even ice time is beneficial to the team. Just speaking about the TOI, not the lines themselves.

 

[RememberTheRoar]

I just don't see how giving the Dach line (if he makes it) relatively even ice time is beneficial to the team.

How not? That line could be some teams’ second line if Kubalik is as good as most think he will be.

Edit: didn’t mean they with an “I’m right” tone.

 

[b1e9a8r5s]

How not? That line could be some teams’ second line if Kubalik is as good as most think he will be.

Edit: didn’t mean they with an “I’m right” tone.

Maybe I'm not understanding what you mean by relatively even ice time, but in general a minute of ice time for the TK line is going to be better than the Dach line. So it's in the teams best interest to play TK in the 20ish minute range and whoever the worst line is in the 10-12 minute range.

 

[RememberTheRoar]

Maybe I'm not understanding what you mean by relatively even ice time, but in general a minute of ice time for the TK line is going to be better than the Dach line. So it's in the teams best interest to play TK in the 20ish minute range and whoever the worst line is in the 10-12 minute range.

I guess, but I thought they wanted to get away from big minutes and over reliance on Toews and Kane this year

 

[b1e9a8r5s]

I guess, but I thought they wanted to get away from big minutes and over reliance on Toews and Kane this year

Maybe, but I think you can lower there ice time by a minute or two, without bringing them down to the everyone plays the same range you were suggesting. Kane was 22.5 and Toews was 21:00. I could see them dropping a minute or two, but I don't think they are going to dip much below 20 minutes.

 

[RememberTheRoar]

Maybe, but I think you can lower there ice time by a minute or two, without bringing them down to the everyone plays the same range you were suggesting. Kane was 22.5 and Toews was 21:00. I could see them dropping a minute or two, but I don't think they are going to dip much below 20 minutes.

What if the lower three lines play an even balance of the remaining time? Does that make any sense?

 

[b1e9a8r5s]

What if the lower three lines play an even balance of the remaining time? Does that make any sense?

There's obviously a lot of moving parts (12 forwards, how you construct the lines) but in general, I'd say no, not really. It's beneficial for the best players to play more than the others. You don't have to have put your 3 best players on the same line and 4-6 on the next one, but once you've decided how you want to make the lines, there's likely going to be a somewhat significant difference between lines 2 and 4 and I don't think it would make since to divide them in a way where they are completely equal.

 

[Salvaged Ship]

Yes.

How’s that for an in depth opinion

 

[Blackhawks]

I really don’t think this is a fair rationale at all. You could say the same thing about Strome who was only getting fourth line minutes in AZ.

“If Strome wasn’t doing enough to not play in the fourth line in AZ, I’m not expecting much out of him here”

Sometimes talented guys fall out of favor in an organization for various reasons. Some teams are really bad at developing players. Some teams are just flat out bad at evaluating talent. There’s a multitude of scenarios (that fans aren’t privy to) that could have been what played out so it’s just kinda unfair to put it in a box like that until we know what we have. Give it a fair chance before you make up your mind. Even talented players sometimes need the right opportunity.

How many gems are hidden in a cereal box? People try to justify a sitsitiaon with another situation that only one of like 100 of its kind workout and ignore the 99 failures...

 

[Rick C137]

How many gems are hidden in a cereal box? People try to justify a sitsitiaon with another situation that only one of like 100 of its kind workout and ignore the 99 failures...

What situation am I trying to justify exactly? I think you’re seeing things that aren’t there. I’ve even said at the time I wasn’t wild about the trade and wouldn’t have made it personally but I can see the upside in Nylander. My whole point was that it was unfair to judge based on Buffalos’ assessment of Nylander when we just saw how off Arizona’s was with Strome. I haven’t tried to justify a thing.

 

[BobbyJet]

How many gems are hidden in a cereal box? People try to justify a sitsitiaon with another situation that only one of like 100 of its kind workout and ignore the 99 failures...

Yes, but wouldn't it be lovely if Nylander could turn it around and be the player most would expect from a top ten draft pick with hockey in his blood! He has the talent and decent size. Looks to me like he just needs to grow a spine and want it.

 

[Blackhawks]

What situation am I trying to justify exactly? I think you’re seeing things that aren’t there. I’ve even said at the time I wasn’t wild about the trade and wouldn’t have made it personally but I can see the upside in Nylander. My whole point was that it was unfair to judge based on Buffalos’ assessment of Nylander when we just saw how off Arizona’s was with Strome. I haven’t tried to justify a thing.

I am not saying you specifically, I just don’t know how many times Stan can get lucky with these kinda trades, Strome was a good one but a very risky move which eventually might turn out to be a wash since Schmaltz was doing incredible there too, happy with the situation as it is now so no complains there. Joker for Nylander is more of a risky move if you ask me, this team did a patch job on the D this year by bringing in some injury prones, there isn’t much high end young talent on D coming up to fill all the holes in the next few years and creating a real defence core, people even wanted to add Byram along with Joker and Bovquist to have 3 guys hoping 2 of them will become important pieces, now there is one guy left. Can Nylander do well here, sure but to me from all that is presented he seems like the lazy type, all skill and no work ethic, a floater, rarely do those guys workout.

 

[Fortyfives]

My pre-camp prediction

Dach plays 9 games, gets sent back to the WHL, and then the lines look like this:

Nylander-Toews-Kane
DeBrincat-Strome-Shaw
Saad-Kampf-Kubalik
Caggiula-Carpenter-Smith

Keith-Gustafsson
Maatta-Murphy
De Haan-Seabrook
Dahlstrom

Sikura is the first callup from Rockford. Perlini and Koekkoek get traded.

That’s some heavy defensive water Toews is going to carry. I’m not saying you are wrong, but he’s going to have it rough.

 

[BK]

I am not saying you specifically, I just don’t know how many times Stan can get lucky with these kinda trades, Strome was a good one but a very risky move which eventually might turn out to be a wash since Schmaltz was doing incredible there too, happy with the situation as it is now so no complains there. Joker for Nylander is more of a risky move if you ask me, this team did a patch job on the D this year by bringing in some injury prones, there isn’t much high end young talent on D coming up to fill all the holes in the next few years and creating a real defence core, people even wanted to add Byram along with Joker and Bovquist to have 3 guys hoping 2 of them will become important pieces, now there is one guy left. Can Nylander do well here, sure but to me from all that is presented he seems like the lazy type, all skill and no work ethic, a floater, rarely do those guys workout.

How much is luck and how much is it the FO and their team doing their due diligence? I think this is a fair question. There is risk sure but I highly doubt they are just randomly guessing.

There is actually quite of high-end young talent in the D pipeline. Boqvist, Mitchell, Beaudin, and Vlasic are all top 4 prospects (with Boqvist and Mitchell being top 2 potential D). I would add Lucas Carlsson to that mix as well but he is more of a unknown but he looked good in Rockford and is a calm defender who makes good choices. Chad Krys could become a #4 guy but I am not as sure on him. But if you personally doubt Mitchell, Beaudin, and Vlasic then we can just agree to disagree.